Latest news with #MikeSantoli
CNBC
3 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Santoli's Friday market wrap-up: Indexes stayed out of danger by hiding behind big brothers
(These are the market notes on today's action by Mike Santoli, CNBC's Senior Markets Commentator. See today's video update from Mike above.) The key indexes stayed out of danger by hiding behind their big brothers, the Nasdaq giants that embody both defense and aggression in this bull market. Apple 's jailbreak rally extended for a third day, the big Mag 7 laggard trying to make it up in a hurry, while carrying the Nasdaq-100 to a fresh high and offsetting another cluster of post-earnings selloffs in individual stocks (today it was Trade Desk , Microchip Tech and Block ). For the week, the NDX was up some 3.7%, almost three percentage points ahead of the equal-weight S & P 500 , enabling the standard-weight S & P 500 to hold within 1% of last week's intraday peak. Over the course of the week, acute concern over last Friday's poor employment report and broader apprehension toward the volatility-prone month of August was salved by increasing expectations of a September Fed rate cut, a glass-half-full take on new tariffs that emphasizes the room for exemptions and a broader sense that the brute force of the AI-buildout theme is too tough to fight. There is some sense that the mere anticipation of seasonal turbulence and concern over how far the four-month rally has travelled had investors a bit cautious entering the week, forestalling or even preventing any consequential pullback from taking hold. Much commentary about the extreme punishment handed out to stocks of companies missing forecasts or offering less-than-stellar outlooks. Shows how far prices ran relative to the fundamentals for the typical company. But the aggregate earnings growth (+11.8% vs a year ago, says FactSet), heavily influenced by the half-dozen largest tech bellwethers, keeps the chains moving for now. The S & P 500 is at levels first reached two weeks ago, in a healthy uptrend, with widely acknowledged likely support around 6150, both the old February peak and around the 50-day moving average – less than a 4% drop from here. Sometimes an overbought market can come back into balance with some sideways churn, allowing the overheated groups to cool and leaning on fewer big names to stay supported. This is the ideal scenario for bulls. Plausible, but not guaranteed.
CNBC
4 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Santoli's Thursday market wrap-up: Swift downside reversal in big indexes shows twitchy, erratic market running out of buyers
(These are the market notes on today's action by Mike Santoli, CNBC's Senior Markets Commentator. See today's video update from Mike above.) A swift downside reversal in the big indexes shows a twitchy, erratic market running out of eager buyers near the upper end of the past week's range. The opening rally attempt got its push from overnight overseas strength after strong China exports, positive European shipping trends and hope that the imposition of U.S. tariffs left room for negotiated exemptions. Twitchy bond-market action after some headlines on Fed governor Waller potentially having a better shot as President Trump's Fed Chair pick and after a soft 30-year Treasury auction had yields a bit higher across the board. Trump subsequently said he'd nominate Council of Economic Advisors chair Stephen Miran to what's left of the unexpired term. Isolated pockets of pronounced weakness in some earnings reporters and subsectors of tech. Eli Lilly 's disappointing weight-loss-drug results knocked the stock down 14%, and perhaps destabilized other crowded, large-cap growth names such as Visa (off 2.3%). Software stocks were bloodied, with a clanging guidance miss by cybersecurity player Fortinet triggering a flight from a group already seen as vulnerable in a more AI-centric world. Given all these hazards, the broader market hung together OK. The S & P has spent all week inside the range set by last Thursday's record high a bit above 6400 and Friday's post-payroll-report low just above 6200. Benign churn to alleviate overbought conditions or the start of a less trustworthy tape given loss of momentum, challenging seasonal factors and waning momentum? Damage to the S & P limited by Apple 's upside follow-through, the stock ahead by another 3% after it was seen as sidestepping further tariffs on its imports from India. The move only modestly closed its yawning 22-percentage-point underperformance relative to the Nasdaq-100 this year, but provided good ballast for the S & P 500. Weekly jobless claims a non-event, stuck in a benign range, though another uptick in continuing unemployment claims to a new cycle high, just under 2 million, accentuates the current low-metabolism labor market: weak hiring pace, few layoffs and muted labor supply (given retirements and immigration crackdowns). CPI next Tuesday is the next key macro input as the debate over the growth-inflation-policy interplay remains tense.
CNBC
5 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Santoli's Wednesday market wrap-up: Mild churn marked by Apple fueling an S&P 500, Nasdaq rally
(These are the market notes on today's action by Mike Santoli, CNBC's Senior Markets Commentator. See today's video update from Mike above.) Another day of mild churn in the market under the surface of a headline S & P 500 rally that was largely propelled by Apple shares. The S & P 500 has spent the week in the range, bounded by last Thursday's all-time high above 6400 and Friday's low near 6200, set after the shock of that jarringly weak July employment report. Almost exactly as many stocks were up versus down on the day across the NYSE and Nasdaq, allowing volatility to settle back a bit. Apple 's near-6% pop on reports that it will sidestep newly raised tariffs on imports from India as it pledges another $100 billion in U.S. investments is a measure of the degree to which the stock has been held back by such trade-policy concerns. The move contributed almost half the S & P 500's 0.8% gain. Even after today's jump, Apple stock is lagging the performance of the Nasdaq-100 by 25 percentage points so far this year – representing plenty of room for catch-up but also reflecting the market's skepticism of the company's answer to the AI boom. Earnings reports continue to come in generally ahead of forecasts yet on balance are being met by "sell-the-news" action in the stocks. AMD , Walt Disney and Emerson Electric all struggled today due to varying levels of disappointment with insufficiently exuberant outlooks. All three stocks had strong runs in recent months. McDonalds was the notable exception, with the shares up almost 4% after solid results, after the stock had been flattish over the prior six months. Signals on the condition of consumers continue to be staticky. McDonalds flags softer U.S. store traffic , travel stocks have generally backed off, yet Disney's domestic parks performance was strong and big-box retailer stocks outperformed today. Growing expectations of a September rate cut are likely firming up sentiment toward this group. The 10-year Treasury yield is holding just above 4.2% , a level it's spent very little time below over the past year except when the market was undergoing a "growth scare" (last summer/fall and in the April tariff panic). A sharp twitch higher in yield just before noon seemed to coincide with a sudden drop in the prediction-market odds of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh being nominated by President Trump as the next Fed chair. Unclear if the Treasury market will continue to key off of this horserace; perhaps only in the absence of macro inputs such as tomorrow's weekly jobless claims and next Tuesday's July CPI report. Widespread expectations that the market was due for a bout of seasonal weakness in August have been met with a one-day air pocket on Friday and moderate choppiness since. The market has sometimes in recent years managed to cool off through sideways action and constant rotation rather than meaty pullbacks. Bulls are likely hoping for the former while keeping in mind the latter possibility.
CNBC
6 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Santoli's Tuesday market wrap-up: Market back on its heels after weak ISM services report
(These are the market notes on today's action by Mike Santoli, CNBC's Senior Markets Commentator. See today's video update from Mike above.) Market back on its heels after a weak ISM Services report , but responding more with rotation than an outright retreat. Are stocks able to better tolerate the kind of sluggish growth and elevated goods inflation implied by the ISM now that the bond market is firmly priced for a September rate cut? Within limits, it's possible. Defensive and laggard stocks – small-caps , pharma, Berkshire Hathaway – helping to lend support. After a very broad bounce Monday, market breadth remains decent, about 50-50 up-vs.-down on the day. Palantir Technologies flattered the S & P 500 and was the biggest upside contributor on the day, with its cult fan base activated after strong results last night. The stock traded almost as much dollar volume today as Nvidia (and three times as much as Microsoft ) despite being one-tenth the market cap of those giants. The standard narrative heading into August was, the market has had a massive run, is due for some chop and churn, seasonal headwinds prevail through September, but there's good support for the S & P 500 from 6100-6150 (down 4%-5% from peak). Sounds plausible, and benign, but the direction of surprise could either be no pullback or something out of the blue strikes (like last year's yen carry trade blowup in early August) that challenges the "cute refreshing pullback" thesis. VIX holding up near 18 , as demand perks up for a bit of downside cushion in a late-summer tape with valuations rich but the power of the AI-buildout story mocking those who've been cautious because of high valuations.
CNBC
7 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Santoli's Monday market notes: Dip-buying impulse intact, meme stocks reenergized
(These are the market notes on today's action by Mike Santoli, CNBC's Senior Markets Commentator. See today's video update from Mike above.) The dip-buying impulse remains intact. Bespoke Investment Group reports that 2025 has been the second-most-profitable year since 1993 when blindly buying the S & P 500 after a down day. The market treating Friday's setback as a standard seasonal shakeout for now: Overbought indexes, a bit of speculative froth and complacency about the state of the economy under tariffs set us up for a bit of a jolt, then came Friday's tumble accompanied by a pop in the VIX above 20. S & P 500 still hasn't recouped all of Friday's pullback, can't sound an "all clear" yet. We broke an unusually long streak above the 20-day moving average Friday, today's bounce takes the index just above it. The AI plays reasserting itself after most Mag7 earnings confirmed the broad theme is intact. NDX the clear outperformer. Not many macro releases to chew over this week, so it's mostly about seeing if last week's dip softened up stocks enough to lower the bar for the remaining earnings reports to trigger more favorable stock responses. The jarring shortfall in job growth and the downward revisions reset the bull case from "The economy seems resilient enough to withstand a wait-and-see Fed" to "Economy is slowing enough to prompt a September rate cut to underpin the rally." Treasury yields getting no real lift after Friday's severe drop post-jobs report, the dollar backsliding as well, helping to prop up rate-sensitive groups like homebuilders. Meme stocks reenergized. JOBY , OPEN , the quantum stocks flying... Palantir earnings reaction will be a tell for the speculative crowd.
