Latest news with #MorganStanleyWealthManagement
Yahoo
30-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Where Morgan Stanley is looking for value after powerful rebound in U.S. stocks
The U.S. stock market mostly added to its big rebound from its April low after President Donald Trump announced on Sunday a trade deal with the European Union, amid worries over rich valuations. Investors have been rotating into cyclical stocks from defensive equities amid signs of a resilient economy and confidence in corporate earnings, Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in a note Monday. The rotation was partly amplified by optimism over the One Big Beautiful Bill Act suggesting 'a capex boom and cyclical recovery in the second half of 2025 through 2026, potentially further fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts,' according to her note. Social Security wants to make a change that would cause 3.4 million more people to have to visit its field offices We're in our 70s with a $260K mortgage at 3% interest and $1.6 million in savings. Should we pay off our house in full? Why the man behind 'The Hater's Guide to the AI Bubble' thinks Wall Street's hottest trade will go bust The most important woman in bonds says investors now have unrealistic expectations The stock market has rebounded from the early April selloff sparked by Trump's announcement of 'liberation day' tariffs. The market recovered after the White House paused the tariffs and investors perceived positive developments as the U.S. worked on trade deals. The S&P 500 SPX closed at a record high each day of last week, ahead of Trump's meeting Sunday with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Scotland on trade. They reached an agreement under which the European Union will pay 15% tariffs for most goods imported to the U.S. That followed other trade deals announced last week, including with Japan. Read: S&P 500 scores 5th straight record high ahead of Europe-U.S. trade meeting 'The equity market's powerful recovery from the tariff uncertainty bear market has been driven by multiple factors—technical, positional and fundamental,' Shalett said. 'Oversold conditions and derisking set the stage for a strong pivot back to equities once the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause was announced, while economic resilience supported earnings confidence.' With the S&P 500 again approaching historically high valuations, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management sees investment opportunities in the healthcare sector amid the recent rotation into cyclical stocks, according to Shalett. 'Health care—namely, medical equipment, devices and supplies, and distribution logistics —remains one of our favored fishing ponds for value,' she said. Healthcare XX:SP500.35 has been the worst-performing S&P 500 sector in 2025, according to a Bespoke Investment Group note emailed Monday ahead of the U.S. stock market's opening bell. Consumer discretionary XX:SP500.25 was the only other sector in the red year to date, while six of the S&P 500 index's 11 sectors were beating the index, the Bespoke chart above shows. 'Yes, technology is one of the sectors that's ahead of the S&P 500, but other non-tech sectors like industrials, utilities, financials, and materials have also outperformed' this year, Bespoke said in the note. The S&P 500, which has an outsize weight to Big Tech stocks, has climbed 8.6% in 2025 through Monday. In a sign that this year's rally hasn't been just about Big Tech, shares of the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF RSP, an exchange-traded fund that equally weights stocks in the index, has risen 6.5% this year over the same stretch, FactSet data show. Meanwhile, U.S. businesses have been reporting this month their latest quarterly earnings, with results from Big Tech companies Meta Platforms Inc. META, Microsoft Corp. MSFT, Inc. AMZN and Apple Inc. AAPL scheduled for this week, according to the Bespoke note. 'We hope you had a restful weekend, because the last four days of July and the first trading day of August are going to be jam-packed with earnings and economic data,' Bespoke said. The Federal Reserve will wrap up its two-day meeting on monetary policy on Wednesday with a decision on where it's setting interest rates. The U.S. jobs report for July will be released Friday, while data on manufacturing and consumer sentiment will be released that same day. More imminently, Tuesday's U.S. economic calendar includes fresh reports on areas such as job openings and consumer confidence. The U.S. stock market closed mostly higher Monday, with the S&P 500 eking out a gain of less than 0.1% to notch a sixth straight record peak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP rose 0.3% to book a fresh all-time closing high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA slipped 0.1%. The S&P 500 ended Monday up 28.2% from its April 8 low, according to Dow Jones Market Data. 'The stock market's stunning rebound and resilience have again emboldened equity investors,' said Shalett, who pointed to their optimism about 'Goldilocks' economic conditions. But she cautioned against 'buying the market' through the passive S&P 500 index, saying 'complacency is elevated, and valuations are rich.' Shalett said to consider stocks with 'earnings and cash-flow upside-surprise potential,' which may be found among 'select tech hardware and services names, industrials, financials, energy and parts of health care that are policy beneficiaries amid higher structural volatility and real rates, and a weak U.S. dollar.' Comcast could see its heaviest internet-subscriber losses ever. Then what? How stock-market investors should trade what could be a historic Fed dissent on Wednesday Royal Caribbean stock gets rocked despite higher demand for cruises. Here's why. 'I have Type 1 diabetes': I'm 64 with a $1.3 million 401(k). Is it too late for long-term-care insurance? Sign in to access your portfolio
Business Wire
24-07-2025
- Business
- Business Wire
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Delivers New Tool to Help Clients Tackle Single Stock Risk
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's Global Investment Office (GIO) has launched the Equity Vulnerability Score, a proprietary tool that can help clients and the Financial Advisors who serve them measure and rank the susceptibility of US stocks to potential future drops in value. As a risk management tool, this can help provide important insights for investors—especially those who hold concentrated equity positions, which Morgan Stanley defines as five or fewer stocks making up more than 30% of the risk in a portfolio. Concentrated equity positions often occur naturally for company founders, those who receive equity compensation, and early investors. As these positions grow over time, they can unwittingly expose the investor to underperformance, higher volatility and material drawdowns—when a stock begins to decline from its peak and can drag the rest of the investor's portfolio down with it. Looking historically, the GIO found that among the individual stocks contained in the Russell 1000 Index, a stock market index that represents the 1000 top companies by market capitalization in the United States: Individual stocks were more than twice as volatile as the index itself (37% v. 15%) since 2014 The average stock's maximum drawdown was twice as large as the index's (approximately 50% vs. 25%) Most individual stocks tend to underperform the index on any forward-looking basis, with the median underperformance clocking in at -2.6% per year Most stocks that outperformed the index over five years went on to then underperform in the following five years1 The Equity Vulnerability Score can help flag the likelihood that a stock may soon drop in value, and can also be used to complement Morgan Stanley's existing Tactical Equity Framework, which helps identify short-term opportunities to seek overall stronger performance. 'As a leader in both equity compensation and in providing guidance to founders, early-stage investors, and executives of publicly traded companies, we see this is a significant and often overlooked challenge for many of the clients our Advisors serve,' said Steve Edwards, Senior Investment Strategist, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. 'And while it is natural to have an emotional attachment to a stock that you've watched grow over time, it can also pose an outsized risk. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management has been unwavering in helping to address this issue, and the vulnerability score puts another arrow in our quiver to continue to do just that.' The Equity Vulnerability Score draws from a broad range of indicators proven to have a strong correlation with the negative returns brought on by drawdowns, in three main categories: Financial Stability – Looks at the stability of a company's finances by comparing key metrics such as earnings or revenue, as well as how much those numbers fluctuate over time. Fundamental Momentum – Checks whether a company's important financial numbers are improving or declining, using key gauges of profitability, quality, and value. Volatility and Tail Risk – Measures recent stock price moves, focusing on large drops and trading activity. For more information, please find the following report: Global Investment Committee Special Report: Confronting the Concentrated Equity Challenge and Measuring Drawdown Vulnerability. See also: About Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Morgan Stanley Wealth Management is a leading financial services firm that provides access to a wide range of products and services to individuals, businesses, and institutions, including brokerage and investment advisory services, financial and wealth planning, cash management and lending products and services, annuities and insurance, retirement, and trust services. About Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is a leading global financial services firm providing a wide range of investment banking, securities, wealth management and investment management services. With offices in 42 countries, the Firm's employees serve clients worldwide including corporations, governments, institutions and individuals. For further information about Morgan Stanley, please visit A decline in the value of the investments held in a concentrated portfolio of a limited number of securities would cause the portfolio's overall value to decline to a greater degree than that of a less concentrated portfolio. Morgan Stanley's Equity Vulnerability Score is a quantitative factor-based ranking of US stocks' relative vulnerability to future drawdowns. To compute the Equity Vulnerability Score, a set of three differentiated factor categories were selected: (1) the Financial Stability category, (2) the Fundamental Momentum category, and (3) the Volatility and Tail Risk category. After combining the scores for the underlying indicators therein to derive the three categories-level scores, the categories' conclusions are then blended into the overall Equity Vulnerability Score. Consistent with Morgan Stanley's Tactical Equity Framework, the Equity Vulnerability Score relied primarily on FactSet's Quant Factor Library (QFL) dataset. © 2025 Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC. Member SIPC _________________________ 1 As of December 31, 2024. Source: Morgan Stanley Global Investment Committee Special Report: Confronting the Concentrated Equity Challenge and Measuring Drawdown Vulnerability Expand
Yahoo
17-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's tariffs are turning into a ‘mosaic' that will be ‘idiosyncratic,' Morgan Stanley says, projecting a $2.7 trillion haul over 10 years
President Donald Trump's tariffs are taking shape—and they're taking on a kind of color, too. If you look at the tariffs and assign different colors to each sector they touch, they start to look like a collection of different stones, even stained glass. They're turning into a 'mosaic.' That's the metaphor used by Monica Guerra, head of US Policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. This is because they vary on both a country-by-country and a product-specific basis, even though Trump has ensured they are far-reaching in scope. This makes the overall impact 'more idiosyncratic,' Guerra wrote in a research note titled, 'Tariff Talk and Dollar Moves.' For example, Guerra noted 21% of global U.S. imports are exempted, whereas 30% of U.S. imports from the EU, 42% from Vietnam, and 64% from Malaysia are exempt. Then, reciprocal tariffs apply to 50% of goods imported from Japan and 30% from South Korea, and those are impacted by tariffs on autos and auto parts. These tariffs are being applied 'piecemeal,' with delayed starts, occasional backtracks, and new deals being struck. Guerra warned of unpredictable impacts across the global economy and projected tariff rates are likely to keep rising and remain elevated, even as the Trump administration weathers questions about their legality. Guerra's team also made a projection, calculated based off tariff collections over the last three months: The U.S. Treasury could collect as much as $2.7 trillion in tariffs over the next 10 years. From blanket tariffs to a more patchwork policy Since his return to office, President Trump has deployed a complex array of country-specific and product-targeted tariffs. According to Guerra's analysis, the average effective tariff rate on imports has been around 16% in 2025—five times higher than the 3% average when Trump took office in January. Though the White House originally attempted sweeping, universal tariffs—including a 10% blanket rate—the policy has grown more piecemeal due to both legal challenges and strategic considerations. While overall tariffs have risen, the effects are far from uniform. The granular nature of U.S. trade policy under Trump is apparent in the varying exemptions granted to different trading partners. Morgan Stanley noted the sharp departure from the blanket tariffs of previous periods, making the market's assessment of winners and losers more challenging. Macroeconomic implications: Dollar weakness and inflation risks Compounding the uncertainty is a significant weakness in the U.S. dollar, Morgan Stanley noted, which has dropped 10% year-to-date, making imports more expensive for American consumers and companies. Guerra's team warned the combination of a weaker dollar and rising tariffs could translate directly into higher import prices, fueling inflation and potentially squeezing corporate margins unless costs are passed on to consumers. While inflation had shown some signs of moderating—helped in part by lower energy prices and inventory build-ups ahead of new tariffs—markets are now pricing in a rebound: Inflation expectations for the next 12 months have climbed to 3.43%, according to zero-coupon swaps, roughly matching the levels seen in April, when Trump announced his tariff plans in more detail as part of 'Liberation Day.' Revenues rise—but at what cost? Behind the policy maneuvering lies a powerful fiscal incentive. Since the onset of Trump's latest round of reciprocal and universal tariffs this spring, monthly tariff revenues have soared to an average of $22.3 billion—an all-time high compared to the typical $5 billion per month average for the previous five years. This is the average related to the $2.7 trillion projection, but strategists caution tariff rates and compliance remain highly dynamic and unpredictable, making any long-term projection subject to 'considerable uncertainty.' As the U.S. doubles down on tariffs while navigating currency volatility, the effects will be anything but homogeneous. The technology sector, uniquely positioned with nearly 58% foreign revenue exposure, could stand to benefit from dollar weakness, even as other sectors face margin pressure from rising costs. Meanwhile, small and mid-sized firms, as well as those reliant on complex global supply chains, may struggle with operational and pricing challenges that are still rippling through the economy. Morgan Stanley said the current environment is 'particularly fluid and dynamic' as legal and political battles over trade continue to play out. As Trump's tariff regime grows more intricate, markets, businesses, and consumers alike are bracing for an era of heightened unpredictability—and potentially, record-shattering government revenue, paid for by American consumers through higher tariffs. For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. This story was originally featured on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Sydney Morning Herald
15-07-2025
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
Australia news LIVE: Albanese to visit Great Wall of China after Xi meeting; ASX to retreat as US inflation rises
Latest posts Latest posts 7.04am US inflation accelerates as tariffs cast shadow on Wall Street US inflation jumped to 2.7 per cent in the last month from 2.4 per cent in May, causing most American stocks to slump on Tuesday and setting the stage for a retreating Australian sharemarket on Wednesday. Price increases for generally imported goods, such as toys and clothes, were among the standout items from the inflation report, with economists noting that the rise may be a result of the worldwide tariffs proposed by President Donald Trump as part of a bid for global markets to open further to the US. 'Inflation has begun to show the first signs of tariff pass-through,' according to Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Futures at 6.05am AEST pointed towards a loss of 64 points, or 0.7 per cent, for the Australian sharemarket on Wednesday, after it added 0.7 per cent on Tuesday. 7.03am What's making news today By Daniel Lo Surdo Hello and welcome to the national news live blog. My name is Daniel Lo Surdo, and I'll be helming our live coverage this morning. Here's what is making news today: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will visit the Great Wall later today, on the fourth day of his China visit. It follows his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing's Great Hall on Tuesday, which Albanese said was guided by Australia's national interests and is 'aimed at co-operating wherever we can, disagreeing where we must'. Bradley John Murdoch, one of Australia's most notorious killers, has died in custody in the Northern Territory, NT News is reporting. Murdoch, 67, was serving a life sentence for the murder of British backpacker Peter Falconio in 2001. His death from throat cancer means Falconio's family may never know where the backpacker's body was dumped. The Australian sharemarket is set to retreat on Wednesday after Wall Street slumped as US inflation accelerated to 2.7 per cent last month, from 2.4 per cent in May. Economists pointed to increases in goods generally imported to other countries, such as clothes and toys, which could be rising due to the proposed global tariffs announced by President Donald Trump. Sydney FC has registered a stunning 2-1 win over the Hollywood-backed Welsh football side Wrexham AFC at Allianz Stadium on Tuesday night. Sydney's winner was scored by 18-year-old Joe Lacey, whose mother is Welsh and aunt works for Wrexham as a paramedic, saying that the goal was 'very big for me and my family'. Former Treasury boss to push for improved climate outcomes in Press Club address By Mike Foley Anthony Albanese's plan to build 1.2 million homes, improve the nation's transport system and lift Australians' living standards will fail if the government cannot fix broken nature laws and arrest the decline of the environment, former Treasury boss Ken Henry warns. In a speech to the National Press Club on Wednesday, Henry, who served as Treasury boss under John Howard and Kevin Rudd, will argue that despite pressure on fast-track important developments, the country also needs a resilient and rich natural environment. Without that, Australia will be just 'building a faster highway to hell'. 'If we can't achieve environmental law reform, then we should stop dreaming about more challenging options,' Henry will tell the press club.
The Age
15-07-2025
- Business
- The Age
Australia news LIVE: Albanese to visit Great Wall of China after Xi meeting; ASX to retreat as US inflation rises
Latest posts Latest posts 7.04am US inflation accelerates as tariffs cast shadow on Wall Street US inflation jumped to 2.7 per cent in the last month from 2.4 per cent in May, causing most American stocks to slump on Tuesday and setting the stage for a retreating Australian sharemarket on Wednesday. Price increases for generally imported goods, such as toys and clothes, were among the standout items from the inflation report, with economists noting that the rise may be a result of the worldwide tariffs proposed by President Donald Trump as part of a bid for global markets to open further to the US. 'Inflation has begun to show the first signs of tariff pass-through,' according to Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Futures at 6.05am AEST pointed towards a loss of 64 points, or 0.7 per cent, for the Australian sharemarket on Wednesday, after it added 0.7 per cent on Tuesday. 7.03am What's making news today By Daniel Lo Surdo Hello and welcome to the national news live blog. My name is Daniel Lo Surdo, and I'll be helming our live coverage this morning. Here's what is making news today: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will visit the Great Wall later today, on the fourth day of his China visit. It follows his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing's Great Hall on Tuesday, which Albanese said was guided by Australia's national interests and is 'aimed at co-operating wherever we can, disagreeing where we must'. Bradley John Murdoch, one of Australia's most notorious killers, has died in custody in the Northern Territory, NT News is reporting. Murdoch, 67, was serving a life sentence for the murder of British backpacker Peter Falconio in 2001. His death from throat cancer means Falconio's family may never know where the backpacker's body was dumped. The Australian sharemarket is set to retreat on Wednesday after Wall Street slumped as US inflation accelerated to 2.7 per cent last month, from 2.4 per cent in May. Economists pointed to increases in goods generally imported to other countries, such as clothes and toys, which could be rising due to the proposed global tariffs announced by President Donald Trump. Sydney FC has registered a stunning 2-1 win over the Hollywood-backed Welsh football side Wrexham AFC at Allianz Stadium on Tuesday night. Sydney's winner was scored by 18-year-old Joe Lacey, whose mother is Welsh and aunt works for Wrexham as a paramedic, saying that the goal was 'very big for me and my family'. Former Treasury boss to push for improved climate outcomes in Press Club address By Mike Foley Anthony Albanese's plan to build 1.2 million homes, improve the nation's transport system and lift Australians' living standards will fail if the government cannot fix broken nature laws and arrest the decline of the environment, former Treasury boss Ken Henry warns. In a speech to the National Press Club on Wednesday, Henry, who served as Treasury boss under John Howard and Kevin Rudd, will argue that despite pressure on fast-track important developments, the country also needs a resilient and rich natural environment. Without that, Australia will be just 'building a faster highway to hell'. 'If we can't achieve environmental law reform, then we should stop dreaming about more challenging options,' Henry will tell the press club.
