Latest news with #MrutyunjayMohapatra
Time of India
2 days ago
- Climate
- Time of India
How Delhi's summer is changing: 3-fold rise in May rainfall in 75 years
NEW DELHI: Delhiites this month experienced the wettest May since record-keeping began in 1901. This wasn't a one-off event but another pointer to a dramatic change in Delhi's summer weather. Since 1951, there has been a three-fold increase in average rainfall in May, with the frequency of dry months of May reducing by nearly half along with a sharp rise in months of heavy rainfall. This points to a sharp shift towards wetter days in May, with the trend getting even more pronounced in the last five years, shows a TOI analysis of data from Delhi's main weather station Safdarjung. Average rainfall as high as 95.7mm in May in past 5 years Consider this. During the 30-year period from 1951 to 1980, the month of May on average recorded 17mm of rain. In the last 30 years (1996-2025), this increased nearly 3x to 52.7mm. In the past five years, this average has been as high as 95.7mm. During 1951-1980, half of May months (15) were mainly dry with total rainfall of less than 10mm. This number has reduced to nearly a fourth (8) in the latest 30-year period. In 50 years from 1951 to 2000, there was not a single instance of total rain in May touching 100mm or more. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Trading CFD dengan Teknologi dan Kecepatan Lebih Baik IC Markets Mendaftar Undo In the next 25 years (2001-2025), there have been five such months, with three in the past five years alone. With such a marked increase in rainfall, one would expect weather in May to be turning cooler. Interestingly, that is not the case. Average maximum and minimum temperatures for May have remained nearly the same since 1951. The average maximum in the last 30 years has been 39.7 degrees Celsius as opposed to 39.5 degrees C during 1951-1980. The minimum has been 25.6 degrees C against 25.8 degrees C in 1951-1980. "It's a curious trend. Rainfall in May has increased significantly but average temperatures have not changed since 1951," said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, chief of India Meteorological Department, after studying the data. This is quite a change from what the typical month of May was like till a few decades back - a month with intense dry heat interspersed with occasional dust storms and light rain; a month when the 'desert cooler' worked well in providing relief from heat. Rising humidity in May translates to more oppressive conditions with increased risks for human health and adds the threat of vector-borne diseases during a month that's been traditionally free of mosquitoes. It also means higher power demand with greater need of air-conditioners. Increased frequency of heavy-rain events puts a higher burden on the city's infrastructure and leads to loss of lives. Why May is turning wetter is a matter of research. In a quick analysis, Mohapatra pointed to possible factors. "We found that the frequency of thunderstorms in May has increased in the last 30 years, leading to more rainfall. This could be due to higher moisture in the air on account of global warming. Other factors that need to be looked at include the frequency of western disturbances, humidity levels at different atmospheric heights and whether there's increased atmospheric instability that could be leading to more thunderstorms," the IMD chief said. M Rajeevan, veteran meteorologist and former secretary of Union earth sciences ministry, said the increased rainfall and higher presence of aerosols in the atmosphere could be offsetting the effects of global warming, resulting in average temperatures remaining more or less the same.
Time of India
3 days ago
- Climate
- Time of India
Why Delhi May Buck The Heavy Rain Trend
New Delhi: Delhi recorded its wettest May since 1901 as the city logged 185.9mm of rainfall, including two spells of heavy showers. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted an above-normal monsoon for the Delhi-Haryana-Chandigarh sub-division. An analysis of past data shows that the capital usually records two to three heavy rainy days during the monsoon, which inundate the city. When the southwest monsoon arrived in the city on June 28 last year, Delhi experienced a day of extremely heavy rain. Safdarjung, the city's base station, logged 228.1mm. It was the highest rainfall recorded in a day in June since 1936. It brought the city to a halt, inundating almost all of Delhi, uprooting several trees, gridlocking traffic for hours, hampering flight movement following the collapse of the canopy at IGI Airport's Terminal 1, disrupting power supply, and causing four deaths. However, the heavy rain continued during the monsoon. Safdarjung witnessed two more heavy-rain days in Aug 2024. Some parts of the city, including the Ridge and Pitampura, also recorded heavy showers in July last year. An analysis of IMD's data for the monsoon period from June 1 to Sept 30 shows that seven heavy-rain days during the monsoon in 2021 was the highest in at least 60 years. Delhi saw two days of heavy rainfall in the monsoon of 2023 and just one such day in 2022. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Switch to UnionBank Rewards Card UnionBank Credit Card Apply Now No heavy-rain days were seen in the monsoons of 2018 to 2020, but two such days each were reported in 2017 and 2015. Very heavy and extremely heavy rainy days are uncommon in Delhi. During the monsoons from 2011-2024, the capital saw just five very heavy rainy days and only one extremely heavy rainy day. Though IMD has not specified when the monsoon will arrive in the city, the Met department said that for Delhi, Chandigarh, and Haryana, a subdivision of the northwest region, the rainfall is expected to be greater than 114% of the long period average (LPA) in this monsoon season. "Delhi-Haryana-Chandigarh subdivision is likely to receive above-normal rainfall," IMD director-general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has said. The normal onset date of the southwest monsoon in Delhi is June 27. At present, its progression is ahead of the usual schedule. The monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24, seven days earlier than its usual arrival of June 1. It reached Mumbai on May 26, ahead of its typical onset date of June 11. "We are monitoring the progress of the monsoon," an official said. The capital received 1,029.9mm of rainfall last monsoon, which was 62% above the LPA of 640.4mm. In the monsoon season of 2023 and 2022, Delhi logged 660.8 and 516.9mm of rainfall, respectively. However, 2021 was the wettest monsoon since 1964, as Safdarjung logged 1,176.4mm of rainfall. According to the IMD, trace to 2.4 mm of rainfall recorded in 24 hours is considered very light rain, while light rainfall is between 2.5mm and 15.5mm. Rainfall recorded between 15.6mm and 64.4mm is categorised as moderate, while rainfall is considered heavy when it is from 64.5mm to 115.5mm. Rainfall logged between 115.6mm and 204.4mm is categorised as very heavy. When the rainfall of above 204.5 mm is called extremely heavy rainfall. During the pre-monsoon season from March 1 to May 30, Delhi received 103.8 mm of rain — nearly double the normal 55.5 mm — placing it in the 'large excess' category for the pre-monsoon period. The city, overall, received 87% excess rainfall in the pre-monsoon period.
Time of India
6 days ago
- Climate
- Time of India
Southwest monsoon covers southern India, to advance over West Bengal, Northeastern states during next two days: IMD
— Indiametdept (@Indiametdept) Above average monsoon rainfall Live Events Monsoon arrives early (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday said that the Southwest Monsoon has advanced further into parts of Maharashtra, remaining parts of Karnataka, most parts of Telangana, remaining parts of Andhra Pradesh, some parts of Chhattisgarh & Odisha, and remaining parts of west-central Bay of department further said that the conditions are favourable for further advance of south west monsoon over some more parts of Chhattisgarh and Odisha, remaining parts Northeastern states, some parts of West Bengal and Sikkim during next two Tuesday the IMD had said that India is likely to witness above-normal rainfall this monsoon season, forecasting 108% of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall for the month of June. Over the entire monsoon season, the country is expected to receive 106% of the LPA (which stands at 87 cm), signaling a strong and promising season for agriculture-dependent regions, reported a press briefing, M Ravichandran, Secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said the monsoon core zone, which includes Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, and nearby regions , will receive above-normal rainfall, crucial for kharif crop cultivation According to IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Central and South Peninsular India are likely to see above-normal rainfall, while Northwest India will receive normal rainfall. However, the Northeast could witness below-normal rainfall this an unexpected development, the Southwest Monsoon advanced early this year, entering several states on May 26. It hit Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and parts of the Northeast.
Mint
6 days ago
- Climate
- Mint
India gets new weather model — what's different, how it will improve monsoon forecast, and benefit farmers, explained.
India this week launched a new weather model with significantly boosted forecasting capabilities that can predict weather for smaller geographic areas more acurately and in a localised manner. The indigenous weather forecasting system, developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), the Bharat Forecasting System (BFS) is debuting this monsoon season, reports said. The new model is called Bharat Forecast System. According to Union Earth Sciences Minister Jitendra Singh, the new system places India among the global leaders in weather prediction, PTI reported. The ministry has spent close to ₹90 crore on a new supercomputer to power the platform. The plan is to double the size of India's weather radar network in two years to feed the model with additional data, it said. The new supercomputer Arka, was installed at the IITM campus last year with a capacity of 11.77 petaflops and storage capacity of 33 petabytes. What does this mean? What are the benefits? The new system can forecast at a resolution of around 6 km, double the previous capability and highest in the world— which means it can zoom in on smaller regions and give localised reports for better rainfall prediction and flood preparation. More localised predictions will also help farmers make informed decisions ahead of weather events. The earlier resolution is 12 km. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) told reporters the new system "will focus on all weather parameters, with rain being the key". A more localised and accurate weather model will also aid in public safety announcements and arrangements. Why did India need homegrown weather model? Usually, the EU's Integrated Forecast System and the US' Global Forecast System are considered "gold standard", Bloomberg noted. Many countries, including India use their data to extrapolate for own regions. Notably, these global forecast models have resolution between 9 km and 14 km, according to a PTI report. Further, predicting rainfall in the tropics is much harder compared to areas further away from the equator. This is because the smaller weather patterns that drive precipitation in the tropics are harder to discern. The new platform uses a grid structure to divide the globe into triangles and make predictions for areas as big as a cluster of villages. M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences noted, 'The tropical region is a chaotic region for weather. The change in weather patterns is unpredictable and higher resolution models are required to capture the spatial changes. Earlier, we used to issue one forecast for four villages. The BFS will enable us to issue separate forecasts for each of the four villages.' Minister Jitendra Singh added knowing the precise location and time of heavy rainfall can improve processes before and after a disaster — saving lives and money. Farmers can also better time their planting activities with more detailed forecasts, raising crop yields. Singh added that the BFS would boost monsoon tracking, aviation, cyclone monitoring and disaster management, agriculture, waterways, defence, and flood forecasting, and also support key ministries. (With inputs from Bloomberg and PTI)
Time of India
6 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
India's early monsoon relief comes with a price tag — and it's rising
The early onset of the southwest monsoon , the earliest the season has begun in the country since 2009, has brought welcome relief from India's summer heat, but it may soon pinch consumers where it hurts the most: their wallets. From rising onion prices to disruptions in supply chains, the heavy downpour is threatening to undo the recent gains in inflation control. Moreover, the FMCG companies are also in a spot of bother as ample rains dried up their summer product sales. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has updated its forecast for the 2025 monsoon season, now predicting above-normal rainfall . The agency raised its projection for the four-month monsoon period to 106% of the long-term average, up from last month's estimate of 105%. For June specifically, the IMD expects rainfall to be significantly above normal, with average precipitation likely exceeding 108% nationwide. Also Read: From eco-anxiety to emotional fatigue: How climate change is affecting mental health Live Events The IMD anticipates a temporary pause in the monsoon's progress during June, forecasting a slowdown in the monsoon's northward movement and rainfall levels after the first 3 to 4 days, according to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General Meteorology, IMD. While Mumbai has already seen a cloudburst and even a red alert, IMD forecasts continued heavy to very heavy rainfall along the west coast, including Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra , and Goa, till June 1. Conditions are favourable for further monsoon advancement into more parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and the North Bay of Bengal. Monsoon vs. Inflation The Reserve Bank of India ( RBI ), which had slashed the policy repo rate to 6% in April 2025, may now be in a bind. In its April policy statement, the central bank had noted that inflation, especially food inflation, had dropped more than expected, supported by a strong rabi harvest, record wheat output, and softening global prices. CPI inflation fell to a six-year low of 3.16% in April from 3.34% in March, and food inflation dropped to 1.78%. However, the early monsoon could turn out to be a threat for this trend. Damage to crops in key agricultural regions like Maharashtra, which is India's onion belt, has already raised alarm bells. The state has now reported crop damage across a total of 34,842 hectares, up from 31,889 hectares earlier, due to relentless rain in districts like Amravati, Jalgaon, Buldhana and Ahilyanagar. Nashik alone has suffered losses of over 3,230 hectares, while Solapur and Pune have seen destruction across 1,252 and 676 hectares, respectively. Banana, mango, onion, lemon, and vegetable crops have been especially hit, with standing crops and even orchard trees uprooted by heavy winds and waterlogging. Onions, thalis and the common man Onions, tomatoes, and potatoes, staples in Indian households, make up 37% of a vegetarian thali's cost, according to rating agency CRISIL. In April 2025, the average cost of a vegetarian thali was Rs 26.3, a 4% decrease compared to the previous year, and any disruption to vegetable supply could push this up. In October last year, onion prices jumped 46% year-on-year, and potatoes 51%, due to heavy rain disrupting supply. CRISIL had reported a 20% rise in thali prices then. Tomatoes nearly doubled, from Rs 29/kg to Rs 64/kg, due to September crop damage. As of May 20, 2025, onion prices at Lasalgaon—India's largest wholesale market for the crop, stood at Rs 1,150 per quintal. With transportation and storage affected by rains, prices are expected to climb further. Tomato prices , which were Rs 5/kg wholesale in Pune just days ago, have now surged to ₹20–₹25 due to reduced arrivals. APMC officials report a 50% drop in vegetable supply, with farmers struggling to harvest or transport produce amid ongoing rains. Also Read: Mumbai rains: Freakish weather poses challenge to India Inc An ET report citing Agmarknet data said, tomato prices have risen by 10% to 25% across Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh in the last week. Leafy greens like spinach, methi, and coriander have also gone up by 12% to 16%. Macroeconomic implications The economic implications are likely to be serious. In 2024, monsoon disruptions led to a spike in food inflation, pushing the Consumer Food Price Index ( CFPI ) to a 57-month high of 10.87% in October. This surge was driven by delayed sowing and flooding in key states. Vegetable prices alone rose by 28%, while cereals and pulses increased 8–17%. Meanwhile, the broader Consumer Price Index (CPI), which includes non-food items, rose to 6.21%. Export bans on rice and onions, intended to stabilise domestic prices, ended up hurting farmers. If food prices spike again, it could derail RBI's projection of 4% CPI inflation for FY26. The Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet on June 4, with a decision expected on June 6. Another 25 basis point rate cut was widely anticipated to support growth, but renewed inflation risks could force the RBI to pause. India's real GDP growth for FY26 is projected at 6.5% by the RBI, and 6.2% by the IMF. But erratic weather, worsened by climate change, could pose a major hurdle. The kharif season faces setbacks As per TOI, experts warn that the early rains have also jeopardised preparations for the kharif sowing season. Farmers typically need a dry window of 15–20 days to prepare land for planting. This year, pre-monsoon showers began in early May and haven't let up, leaving the soil too wet for tractor operations. 'The soil needs to be in a 'wapsa' condition, moist but not saturated, to be workable,' said Kailas Dakhore, agro-meteorologist at Vasantrao Naik Marathwada Agricultural University told TOI. 'Without this, sowing becomes nearly impossible.' Farmers in districts like Indapur, Baramati and Junnar in Maharashtra also report farmland erosion due to heavy water flow. Stored onions are at risk of rotting due to high moisture levels, further threatening supply. 'We expect prices of all vegetables to rise significantly in the coming weeks,' said Shriram Gadhave, president of the All India Vegetable Growers Association, speaking to TOI. 'This year's damage is worse than previous years.' In Akola, farmer Achyut Mangte Patil reported that about 300–400 acres of onions and jowar have been damaged in a village of 3,000 acres. 'Supply shortages will soon push up prices,' he warned. Meanwhile, principal scientist H.C. Prasanna from the Indian Institute of Horticultural Research added that excess rainfall during the vegetative growth phase hampers root growth and nutrient uptake, threatening overall productivity, as per ET. The monsoon remains a double-edged sword. Timely rain is essential for agriculture and rural income, but when it arrives early or intensely, it can trigger a domino effect across the economy.
