Latest news with #NAR
Daily Mail
an hour ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
Housing market flashes fresh red alert as key signal crashes to 30‑year low
Home sales are set to plunge to a 30-year low — with experts warning the slump could deepen into a full‑blown collapse. Just four million transactions are expected in the US this year, according to new data from That would mark lowest level since 1995, according to the National Association of Realtors. Buyers have been scared off by a rocky economy, surging HOA fees, and punishing mortgage and insurance rates, leaving sellers slashing prices to lure offers. 'Even with more homes on the market, buyer response has remained muted compared to what we'd expect from similar supply shifts in the past,' chief economist Danielle Hale said of the shocking figures. The South and West have seen the biggest jump in homes for sale, but prices remain unaffordable. Meanwhile, the Northeast and Midwest are still tight markets with steadier activity. Thirty‑year mortgage rates will average 6.7 percent across 2025 and end the year at around 6.4 percent. That is slightly higher than previous forecasts. Median home prices have jumped 52 percent since May 2019, far outpacing wage growth of just 30 percent, NAR data shows. 'The doubling in the monthly payment for a new set of buyers is hindering the market condition,' said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. Before the pandemic, a typical monthly payment on a home was roughly $1,000; now it's closer to $2,000. Despite the frozen market, economists do not predict a correction in home prices but conversely see them rising 2.5 percent through 2025. This is largely driven by sellers who refuse to drop their asking price and are instead pulling their homes off the market in droves. Others have been forced to slash their asking prices and accept a more reasonable offer in the current uncertain market. More than 20 percent of listed homes had price reductions in June, the highest share for the month since 2016. Phoenix, Arizona, is at the epicenter of the delistings trend, seeing more homes pulled from the market than any other area. Economists believe this is because areas in the South and West have seen inventory hit pre-pandemic levels but prices remaining flat or are even falling. Last week Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi issued a 'red flare' warning for the housing market and cautioned that it could drag down the entire economy. 'I sent off a yellow flare on the housing market in a post a couple of weeks ago, but I now think a red flare is more appropriate,' Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi wrote on X. A 'red flare' warning suggests the market is experiencing major instability and a fall is imminent. 'Home sales are already uber depressed,' Zandi wrote. 'Housing will thus soon be a full-blown headwind to broader economic growth, adding to the growing list of reasons to be worried about the economy's prospects later this year and early next.'
Entrepreneur
2 hours ago
- Business
- Entrepreneur
Good Luck Trying to Buy a Home Right Now
It's supposed to be the busiest time of the year for real estate — but instead, it's crickets. June existing home sales fell to a nine-month low, and one in seven potential deals fell through, according to new data from Redfin and the National Association of Realtors (NAR). With 30-year mortgage rates around 6.67% at press time, and median home prices rising 2% from a year ago (now around $435,300), being a buyer is a tough draw in 2025. Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, told the New York Times that buyers are staying on the sidelines. Related: Barbara Corcoran Says the Best Entrepreneurs Are Good at This One Thing "What it really comes down to, as always, is affordability," Fairweather told the outlet. However, even with the housing supply increasing 15.9% from one year ago, many sellers still think they can get top dollar, dreaming of pandemic days when things skyrocketed (home prices increased 40% on average from 2020 to 2022, and even higher—58%—in some markets like South Florida, per TD Bank). And though some markets have since cooled, especially on Florida's west coast, many sellers are choosing to delist rather than cut prices, says Joel Berner, a senior economist for per the New York Times. Related: This Is the Newest Real Estate Trend You Can't Miss — and It's Worth $438 Billion "Sellers still have pretty high expectations of what they can get for their homes," Berner told the outlet. Of the contract cancellations, Jacksonville, Florida, had the most, with more than one in five (21.4%) of home-purchase agreements canceled in June, per Redfin data. Las Vegas came in second with (19.7%) followed by Atlanta (19.6%). Join top CEOs, founders, and operators at the Level Up conference to unlock strategies for scaling your business, boosting revenue, and building sustainable success.
NBC News
2 hours ago
- Business
- NBC News
Why cutting capital gains tax on home sales wouldn't solve the country's housing issues
Real estate experts are weighing in on a potential end to capital gains tax on home sales — as floated by President Donald Trump this week — and whether it could help unlock the housing market. The capital gains tax on homes hasn't changed in roughly 30 years, but the National Association of Realtors has been pushing for it. They calculate that 15% of current homeowners would be hit with the tax should they sell in today's market. 'Their accountants are saying don't sell the home because of the tax,' said Lawrence Yun, the NAR's chief economist, on a call with reporters Wednesday. 'So naturally if there was a lifting of the exemption amount, we would see potentially a good portion of those listing.' Yun noted some retirees want to downsize, but aren't because of the resulting capital gains tax, which is currently assessed on profits of more than $250,000 for individuals and $500,000 for couples. Most of those hit with the tax would have to be on the higher end of the market. The median price of a home sold in June was $435,300, according to the NAR. The share of homes priced above $750,000 that sold during the month was 17%. The tax only applies to the difference between what a homebuyer purchased the house for and what they sold it at, minus certain improvements. Home prices have risen dramatically since the start of the pandemic, up roughly 52% in the past five years nationally. Even with that steep rise, those on the lower end of the market would not surpass the current exemption. The tax hits high-end homeowners and baby boomers who have owned their homes for several decades and may now be looking to downsize. 'But frankly that's not what really is going to matter for the housing market,' Stephen Kim, a housing analyst at Evercore ISI, told CNBC's 'Closing Bell Overtime' Tuesday. 'What's really going to matter is a return of confidence. We believe that a lot of the actions that the Trump administration has taken has created instability and uncertainty, and people who are going to make the biggest purchase of their life, they don't like to have any kind of insecurity or uncertainty,' he said. Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather suggested that cutting the tax could actually keep homeowners in their homes longer because some decide to sell just as they're approaching the level of gains where the tax would hit. 'It's not clear to me this would help the housing market. If anything, I would like to see them reduce taxes on improvements to homes, like if you're putting in an ADU, and that's what increases the value of your home,' Fairweather said on CNBC's 'Fast Money.'
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
More tough news for buyers. Home prices jumped to all-time highs in June.
US home prices spiked to all-time highs in June, NAR data shows. Existing home sales declined 2.7% in the month. Data earlier this month showed sellers are more often delisting homes rather than dropping prices. It's a tough time to be a homebuyer in the US, and, unfortunately, it got tougher in June. The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday that existing-home prices jumped last month, with the median price reaching $435,300. While only a 2% increase from June 2024, it's the highest home prices have ever been. As prices trend up, sales of existing homes have been moving in the opposite direction. NAR data shows that sales fell 2.7% in June. While month-over-month sales rose slightly in the West, they declined in the Northeast, Midwest, and South regions. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed the price surge to years of undersupply, stating that the trend is prohibiting new buyers from entering the housing market. "High mortgage rates are causing home sales to remain stuck at cyclical lows," Yun stated. "If the average mortgage rates were to decline to 6%, our scenario analysis suggests an additional 160,000 renters becoming first-time homeowners and elevated sales activity from existing homeowners." It's the latest stat that shows how brutal the market is for homebuyers, even as other recent data suggested things could be tilting in their favor. Inventory is piling up, which often suggests prices could edge down. However, data shows that sellers are more often pulling their homes off the market rather than negotiating or lowering prices. Others have noted that the high barriers to homeownership are particularly tough on first-time buyers, many of whom are younger. The high costs of owning a home have compelled a growing number of Gen Z members to view renting as a better alternative. NAR data shows that housing costs are rising even as economic uncertainty remains high, and the market could enter an even deeper freeze after years of sluggish sales activity. On a somewhat hopeful note, Yu said that one factor could help push the US housing market out of its slump. "If mortgage rates decrease in the second half of this year, expect home sales to increase across the country due to strong income growth, healthy inventory, and a record-high number of jobs," he stated. Read the original article on Business Insider
Business Insider
4 hours ago
- Business
- Business Insider
More tough news for buyers. Home prices jumped to all-time highs in June.
It's a tough time to be a homebuyer in the US, and, unfortunately, it got tougher in June. The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday that existing-home prices jumped last month, with the median price reaching $435,300. While only a 2% increase from June 2024, it's the highest home prices have ever been. As prices trend up, sales of existing homes have been moving in the opposite direction. NAR data shows that sales fell 2.7% in June. While month-over-month sales rose slightly in the West, they declined in the Northeast, Midwest, and South regions. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed the price surge to years of undersupply, stating that the trend is prohibiting new buyers from entering the housing market. "High mortgage rates are causing home sales to remain stuck at cyclical lows," Yun stated. "If the average mortgage rates were to decline to 6%, our scenario analysis suggests an additional 160,000 renters becoming first-time homeowners and elevated sales activity from existing homeowners." It's the latest stat that shows how brutal the market is for homebuyers, even as other recent data suggested things could be tilting in their favor. Inventory is piling up, which often suggests prices could edge down. However, data shows that sellers are more often pulling their homes off the market rather than negotiating or lowering prices. Others have noted that the high barriers to homeownership are particularly tough on first-time buyers, many of whom are younger. The high costs of owning a home have compelled a growing number of Gen Z members to view renting as a better alternative. NAR data shows that housing costs are rising even as economic uncertainty remains high, and the market could enter an even deeper freeze after years of sluggish sales activity. On a somewhat hopeful note, Yu said that one factor could help push the US housing market out of its slump. "If mortgage rates decrease in the second half of this year, expect home sales to increase across the country due to strong income growth, healthy inventory, and a record-high number of jobs," he stated.
