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Politico
07-07-2025
- Climate
- Politico
Texas flood forecasts were accurate. It wasn't enough to save lives.
These roles often serve as liaisons between NWS meteorologists and local authorities or emergency managers. Warning coordination meteorologists, in particular, help translate forecasts into usable action plans that can aid the local authorities who make decisions and evacuate communities as severe weather systems approach. It's unclear whether those vacancies have affected coordination with local authorities. Top meteorologists at NWS San Angelo and NWS Austin/San Antonio did not immediately respond to questions about whether the openings posed any challenges during the floods. But Tom Fahy, legislative director at the union that represents NWS employees, said in an interview that vacancies at the Texas offices did not cause any problems during the floods. The offices called 'all hands on deck' to ensure that they were fully staffed during the emergency, he said, adding that 'they knew this was a critical life and death situation — bodies and lives were on the line in this one.' NOAA spokesperson Erica Grow Cei provided a timeline of NWS warnings between Thursday and Friday, confirming that the first flood watch went out at 1:18 p.m. local time Thursday and the first flash flood warning was issued at 11:41 p.m. for Bandera County. Another flash flood warning — tagged 'considerable' to indicate a threat of major damage — was issued at 1:14 a.m. for Bandera and Kerr counties, triggering wireless emergency alerts on enabled devices and warnings on NOAA Weather Radio. 'National Weather Service is heartbroken by the tragic loss of life in Kerr County,' Cei said in an emailed statement, adding that the agency 'remains committed to our mission to serve the American public through our forecasts and decision support services.' Still, cellphone and radio alerts aren't always enough to prevent loss of life during disasters. They can't help people who disable their alerts, don't have cellphone service or don't have radios. Late-night and early-morning warnings can be an even greater challenge to distribute, when much of the public is asleep. Friday's floods occurred in the early hours of the morning, with the most urgent warnings issued after 1 a.m. 'The crux of this disaster is a failure of the last mile of communication,' Fahy said. 'The forecasts went out, they communicated the forecasts, they disseminated the watches and warnings. And the dilemma we have is there was nobody listening at 4 o'clock in the morning for these watches and warnings.' Most people who died in Friday's floods were located in Kerr County, which does not have a warning system, according to Kelly, the Kerry County judge, at a Friday news conference. Other cities in central Texas, like San Marcos, deploy outdoor weather sirens to warn of extreme weather events like floods and tornadoes, as local news reports have pointed out. In an interview with The New York Times, Kelly suggested that warning systems are expensive and 'taxpayers won't pay for it.'
Forbes
05-07-2025
- Climate
- Forbes
Catastrophic Flooding In Texas - Were There Warnings?
A first responder searches an area along the Guadalupe River that hit by flash flooding, Friday, ... More July 4, 2025, in Kerrville, Texas. (AP Photo/Eric Gay) Catastrophic flooding has devastated a region that is no stranger to these types of events. Media reports are confirming multiple fatalities. Many people are still missing including 20 girls at a summer camp along the Guadalupe River. Many people were asking if this 'came out of nowhere' and whether there were warnings. Here's my perspective as a meteorologist. Meteorologist James Spann posted on his Facebook page, 'Many have asked about warnings for the floods in Central Texas responsible for the deaths of over two dozen people late Friday night into Saturday morning…. Warnings were issued by NWS Austin, and they seemed timely and proper' I want to further explore this, but it is critical for readers to understand that a full review will be conducted at a later date. My analysis here is simply a 'first look' given all the rumors, accusations, and "social mediarologists out there. Flash flood warnings issues in the early morning hours of July 4, 2025. The National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio issued a Flash Flood Warning at 1:14 AM CDT for Bandera and Kerr Counties, respectively. They made statements like, 'Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, and underpasses.' That warning also specifically identifed regions like Kerrville, Ingram, Hunt, Waltonia, Kerr Wildlife Management Area, and Lost Maples State Natural Area. At 5:34 am Friday morning, the NWS issued a Flood Emergency for much of the region. The warning stated, 'Automated rain gauges indicate a large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River.' The NWS communication urged people to seek higher ground. Flood Emergency was issued at 5:34 am CDT on July 4, 2025 This is a tough situation because many of these warnings are happening in the middle of the night. What as the NWS leading up to these events. I went back to a NWS discussion issued on Thursday afternoon because several things caught my meteorological eye. They wrote, "A substantial plume of deep tropical moisture continues to stream north across South-Central Texas, characterized by unseasonably moist precipitable water values as high as about 2.4 inches…. The 12Z Del Rio upper-air sounding this morning observed a PW of 2.31 inches, which is near daily record high values." The discussion went on to say, "The axis of a negatively tilted mid-level trough most readily apparent on 700mb analyses is beginning to move poleward towards the Edwards Plateau, leading to rounds of shower activity throughout South-Central Texas into tomorrow as the advancing trough prompts the ascent of moist air." A feature called a mesoscale convective vortex was also a key player in this event. Satellite data shows the plume of moisture extending into Texas. Let me decipher some of the meteorological jargon. Precipitable water is measure of atmospheric moisture. It is the equivalent depth of water that would be measured if condensed and precipitated out of a column of the atmosphere, according to the NWS. As meteorologists, we are always alert to exceedingly high values because they indicate a lot moisture. The MCV and presence of the trough signaled the presence of other ingredients needed -a focusing mechanism and rising motion. NWS forecasters were aware of these signs too. They wrote on Thursday afternoon, "Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches appear likely, but locally higher amounts upwards of 5 to 7 inches could materialize if slow-moving storms begin to cluster…. A Flood Watch is now in effect through 7 AM Friday morning for the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country, where the intersection of higher forecast rainfall amounts and rainfall from the past few days is most evident." Heavy rainfall and a mesoscale convective vortex on July 4, 2025. I decided to take an even longer view. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center issues a Day 3 to 7 U.S. Weather Hazards Outlook. If you look at the hazard map issued on June 30th, which is several days ahead of the flooding event, a heavy rain region is predicted for July 3rd. It is clear to me that NWS forecasters sniffed out this potential 4 or more days in advance of the disaster. Day 3 to 7 hazard outlook issued on June 30, 2025. Balanced Weather meteorologist Alan Gerard also discussed other aspects of this flood event. In his blog, he said, 'The Hill Country of central Texas is known colloquially as 'flash flood alley' because of its high frequency of major flash floods. The region is particularly vulnerable to major flash floods because of the frequency of intense thunderstorms that can produce extreme rainfall rates in the moist Gulf air combined with terrain that favors rapid runoff into flashy rivers and streams.' Interestingly, a 2023 study published in Natural Hazards examined over 6000 flood events in flash flood alley from 2005 to 2019. They found that fatalities and injuries in the were surprisingly rare (2% occurrence rate). They considered environmental (topography, soil type, land use), climatic (rainfall attributes), and situational (activities, timing, location) factors to provide a predictive model. They found that vehicle-related activities were the strongest indicator of likely harm. L Strongest impact on the probability of harm. Proximity to low water crossings and flash flood alley also increased risk. Finally, nighttime events like this one were also found to be dangerous. A raging Guadalupe River leaves fallen trees and debris in its wake, Friday, July 4, 2025, in ... More Kerrville, Texas. (AP Photo/Eric Gay) This a tragic event. I have that pit in my stomach as a meteorologist because events like this represent a worst-case scenarios at the convergence of the very factors considered in the study. Meteorology professor Jordan McLeod even pointed out that this event happened within the context of drought. Why does that matter? Flooding is not simply a function of what falls from the sky. The land cover matters. McLeod, who works at the University of South Alabama, speculates that the drought-stricken landscape would accelerate runoff into the streams and rivers in a manner similar to paved surfaces. Time will reveal the factors at play, but this is another example of compound, extreme weather events that have significant societal impacts. While I conclude that there were adequate warnings from a meteorological perspective, the outcomes illustrate known challenges with forecasting and communicating extreme events: I will close with this an important point. The NWS issued critical warnings during nocturnal hours as this event unfolded. Weather and its risks are 24/7, so we must ensure that our NWS offices are fully staffed 24/7 too. Drought conditions in Texas as of July 1, 2025.
