Latest news with #NationalEconomicCouncil
CNBC
13 hours ago
- Business
- CNBC
Bessent, Warsh, Hassett are the leading contenders to get Fed chair job, CNBC survey finds
It's a virtual three-way tie to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell as Fed chair when his term expires. The CNBC Fed Survey found 24% of respondents saying President Donald Trump will replace Powell with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and 24% saying it will be former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. Close behind is Kevin Hassett, director of the president's National Economic Council with 22%. More distant is current Fed Governor Chris Waller at 14%. Trump repeatedly has called for Powell's resignation, saying he's been late to cut interest rates, and has considered firing him. He's also accused the Fed chair of mismanaging a $2.5 billion renovation of its headquarters and a separate building, a charge Powell has denied and for which the president has provided no evidence beyond the cost overruns. After a recent visit to the construction site, the president appeared to ease off on his criticism of the project and the Fed's monetary policy and suggested he would not fire Powell. Powell's term as chair concludes in May 2026 though he can stay on as governor if he wishes until 2028. In the survey, 84% said the president would not fire Powell before his term ends in May. The 37 respondents include fund managers, economists and strategists. "With the jockeying going on to become the next Fed chair already appearing inside the Fed, it is clear the Fed's independence has already been compromised," economist Joel Naroff wrote. "This has elevated long rates and weakened the dollar. There is little to believe that would change, especially given the expectation that the next Fed chair will be a Trump loyalist." Overall, respondents gave Powell a grade of B -, up from C+ when CNBC last asked the question in 2023. He received solid B's on leadership, transparency, market knowledge and communication, but a C- on economic forecasting (up from a D in 2023). Respondents graded Powell with a B- on economic and regulatory expertise. Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke left office with a final grade of B and Janet Yellen's final grade was a B+. The president's pressure on the Fed to cut rate is believed by some respondents to be having the opposite effect. While 56% say it's having no impact on policy, 42% believe it makes rate cuts less likely. Just 3% say it makes cuts more likely. No respondent forecasts a rate cut at this meeting, although 27% believe the Fed should cut. There could be two dissents at the meeting as two Trump-appointed governors have said they supported lower rates in July. But survey respondents see those cuts coming, with 65% expected one in September and another one likely before year end. That would bring the funds rate down to about 3.9%. Further cuts are forecast for 2026, with the average respondent putting the funds rate at 3.5%, though that will remain above the average neutral rate of 3.3%. Tariff uncertainty remains the No. 1 threat to the expansion, followed by overall uncertainty about the president's policy and continued high inflation. But overall, some of the uncertainty sparked by administration's policies have eased. Uncertainty around the economic impact of tariffs fell to 62% from 71% in June. And 65% expect a trade deal with China, up from 54%. A 51% majority now believes tariffs will result in only one-time price increases, rather than broader inflation, an 8-point gain from June. "Trumpian uncertainties on the economy and policies are settling down," wrote Allen Sinai, chief global economist/strategist at Decision Economics. "That is clarifying and very positive for equities. But there are still big, big societal, political, geopolitical, and non-economic uncertainties." Along with less uncertainty has come a modest boost in the economic outlook. The probability of a recession in the next year has fallen to 31% from 38% in June and 53% in May after the president announced sharply higher "reciprocal" tariffs. GDP is forecast to rise 1.4%, up from 1.1% in June, though still below the more optimistic 2.4% in January. The outlook remains for a recovery next year with an average 2.2% GDP forecast in 2026. Unemployment is seen rising only slightly from the current rate of 4.1% to 4.4% this year and remaining stable at that level in 2026. But there are widespread concerns about the labor market slowing. "Employment is not as good as some believe," said Drew T. Matus, chief market strategist, MetLife Investment Management. "This, combined with housing issues and ongoing volatility, is likely to prompt a significant slowing in activity as we approach year-end." For most respondents, employment looks to be the key to whether Fed is in the right place. "The labor market is slowing, and the housing market is deflating. Ultimately this will force the Fed to cut interest rates," said Troy Ludtka, senior US economist at SMBC Nikko Securities Americas. But Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist, National Retail Federation, wrote, "A relatively balanced labor market, the recent rise in the [personal consumption expenditures price index], and the potential for tariffs to push up inflation in the coming months justifies the cautious pace by the Federal Reserve. Even though uncertainty continues, the economy is expected to grow." Despite better growth and less uncertainty, respondents are cautious about the stock market this year. The average respondent puts the year-end S&P 500 level at 6,344, below the close on Monday. It's forecast to rise to 6,936 next year, a 9% increase. But there's also greater concern about overvaluation, as 84% see stocks as somewhat or extremely overvalued, up from 58% in June, and the highest in a year.
Bloomberg
4 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Trump Pressure a 'Diversion' From Fed Mission, Says Brainard
Lael Brainard, director of the National Economic Council during the Biden administration, said Trump's pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates is mainly aimed at cutting the nation's debt load rather than responding to inflation. (Source: Bloomberg)
The Sun
7 days ago
- Business
- The Sun
EU trade negotiator to discuss tariffs with US counterpart
BRUSSELS: Top EU trade negotiator Maros Sefcovic is set to speak with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Wednesday as tensions over tariffs escalate between the transatlantic allies. The European Commission confirmed the talks, emphasizing efforts to reach a negotiated solution while preparing retaliatory measures worth over $100 billion if discussions fail. 'The EU's primary focus is on achieving a negotiated outcome with the US,' said European Commission trade spokesman Olof Gill. 'Intensive technical and political level contact is ongoing.' The discussions come just before the commission updates EU capitals on the status of trade negotiations with the US. Gill noted that while dialogue remains the priority, Brussels is readying countermeasures should talks collapse. 'We continue in parallel to prepare for all outcomes including potential additional countermeasures,' he said. The EU has already approved retaliatory tariffs set to take effect on August 7 if no agreement is reached. Wednesday's meeting marks the first high-level political discussion since Sefcovic visited Washington last week for talks with Lutnick, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett. Brussels has been balancing negotiations with contingency plans, merging two existing tariff lists into a single package worth 93 billion euros ($108 billion). This combined list, targeting US goods, will be submitted to EU member states for approval and could be enforced as early as next Thursday if talks falter. France and Germany have recently taken a firmer stance, urging a strong response if negotiations fail. Meanwhile, European diplomats revealed that the commission is also drafting restrictions on US services firms, including tech and financial sectors, as a further escalation measure. - AFP
Bloomberg
21-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
AstraZeneca Vows to Spend $50 Billion on US Manufacturing, Development
AstraZeneca Plc plans to invest $50 billion in the US before 2030, becoming the latest European pharma company to ratchet up spending in the country ahead of potential tariffs on imported medicines. The investment will go toward manufacturing as well as research and development, Astra said in a statement. It includes $4 billion for a new facility in Virginia that will make drugs for chronic diseases, Kevin Hassett, director of the US National Economic Council, said Monday at an event in Washington, DC.
Yahoo
17-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why a row over ‘VIP dining rooms' could sink Trump's foe at the Fed
Donald Trump's feud with Jerome Powell has moved from interest rates to a new battlefront: an imposing marble-clad building just a stone's throw from the White House. As the president cast around for ways to pressure the chairman of the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs, his attention has focused on the Fed headquarters, a 1930s neoclassical edifice called the Marriner S Eccles Building. The structure is undergoing a major renovation – and is running majorly over budget. The works were budgeted at $1.9bn (£1.4bn) when they began in 2021, but the cost has ballooned to $2.5bn. Trump's outriders have begun claiming that the project is so grandiose – with alleged VIP dining rooms, executive elevators, and roof gardens – that it could end up costing more than the Palace of Versailles. It may also cost Powell his job. Budget tsar Russell Vought has written to the Fed chairman saying the president was 'extremely troubled' about the 'ostentatious overhaul'. He told journalists on Thursday he wanted to get down to the Constitution Avenue and review the works for himself, adding that Trump was 'offended' because he 'is a builder'. Kevin Hassett, the director of Trump's National Economic Council – who is in the frame to replace Powell – called it 'a real problem of oversight and excess spending'. Kevin Warsh, his chief rival for the Fed job, said the costs were 'outrageous' and showed the central bank had 'lost its way'. Sackable offence Trump world senses an opportunity. The president cannot legally sack Powell just because he wants interest rates to fall faster than the Fed does. But the law might allow him to do so if there is 'cause' such as 'inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance'. Recent comments suggest that Trump thinks the renovation debacle might fit this bill. Would he investigate Powell over the cost blowout? 'Well, I think he's already under investigation. He spent far more money than he was supposed to [on] rebuilding,' the president told reporters. Would he rule out sacking Powell before his term ends next May? 'It's highly unlikely, unless he has to leave for fraud.' Trump's opponents are trying to frame this as a political witch-hunt rather than a genuine concern over the building works. 'When his initial attempts to bully Powell failed, Trump and Republicans in Congress suddenly decided to look into how much the Fed is spending on building renovations,' Elizabeth Warren, Democratic Party senator, said in a speech on Wednesday night. 'Nobody is fooled by this pretext to fire Powell. And markets will tank if he does.' Powell's defence Be that as it may, Powell appears rattled. He has tried to push back on claims of lavish spending. 'There's no VIP dining room,' Powell told a recent Senate committee hearing. 'There's no new marble, there are no special elevators. There are no new water features, and there are no roof terrace gardens.' The Fed has now posted an FAQ page about the project on its website. It says the electrics, plumbing, heating and air conditioner are all obsolete. Some systems are as old as the building itself. The cost blowout has largely come from higher labour and materials costs – the early part of construction was during the pandemic – and unanticipated levels of asbestos and toxic soil contamination. Renovations of a second Fed building were cancelled last year, and the central bank says it will cut costs over time because its 3,000 Washington-based staff will occupy less space than now. To keep the wolves at bay, the Fed has now referred the project to the inspector general who oversees the bank. That hasn't satisfied the White House. James Blair, deputy chief of staff whom Trump has appointed to the National Capital Planning Commission, said he, like Vought, planned to visit the site and assess whether the plans still conformed to the 2021 blueprint his commission had approved. Ultimately, though, the Fed is formally accountable to Congress, not the White House. Warren said that if Trump was concerned about lavish building projects, he should look closer to home. 'I have long pushed for more transparency and accountability at the Fed. But give me a break. The president's housing and urban development secretary is apparently using taxpayer funds to gut the National Science Foundation (NSF) building and turn it into his personal castle, with a private elevator and a personal gym for his family,' she said. She was talking about Scott Turner, who is moving his department into the NSF's offices in Virginia. A trade union for public servants alleged that the plan included these exorbitant extras, but Turner has described these claims as 'ridiculous and not true'. Recent photographs of the Oval Office reveal that Trump himself is no stranger to a bit of executive bling. The gold and gilt on display is growing month to month. He is also reportedly commissioning a South Lawn Ballroom for the White House that is inspired by, of all places, the Palace of Versailles. 'It keeps my real estate juices flowing,' the property-mogul-turned-president has said about his White House refurbishment. Perhaps he feels similarly about the latest front in his fight with the Fed. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
