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Time of India
2 hours ago
- Politics
- Time of India
Rivals neck-and-neck ahead of Poland's 'clash of civilisations' vote
WARSAW: Warsaw's pro-EU mayor and a nationalist historian vying for Poland's presidency hold their last day of campaigning on Friday, with opinion polls predicting a close race in Sunday's vote, which will determine the direction of the key central European EU and Nato member. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now Centrist Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, 53, faces off against right-leaning Karol Nawrocki, 42, on Sunday in a runoff presidential vote, with some analysts describing the contest as a "clash of civilisations." Latest polls predict a close race, with 50.6 percent of the vote going to Trzaskowski and 49.4 percent to Nawrocki, a tiny difference within the polling margin of error. A victory for Trzaskowski would be a major boost for Poland's government, which has been in a political deadlock with the current president. It could also mean significant changes such as the introduction of civil partnerships for same-sex couples and easing Poland's near-total ban on abortion. A win for Nawrocki, backed by the right-wing Law and Justice Party, could undermine Poland's steadfast support for neighbouring Ukraine against Russia. Nawrocki, an admirer of US President Donald Trump, opposes Nato membership for Kyiv and has called for curbs on benefits for the estimated one million Ukrainian refugees in Poland. Analysts say a Nawrocki victory could also lead to fresh parliamentary elections in the EU and Nato member, which has been one of Europe's best economic performers. Given the narrow polling margins, the result of the election may not be known until Monday. "I would be cautious about popping the champagne on Sunday evening," said Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a political expert. Tens of thousands of supporters took part in rival rallies for both candidates on May 25, a week before the runoff. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now The final result is expected to hinge on whether Trzaskowski can mobilise enough supporters to come out and vote and whether far-right voters will cast their ballots for Nawrocki. Far-right candidates fared better than expected in the first round of the election on May 18, getting more than 21 percent of the vote and leaving Nawrocki a larger pool of votes to draw upon. Trzaskowski won that round by a razor-thin margin of 31 percent against 30 percent for Nawrocki. Materska-Sosnowska called the election "a real clash of civilisations", pointing to major policy differences between candidates who have diverging views on abortion or LGBTQ rights. The job of Polish president is sometimes dismissed as a ceremonial post, but it comes with crucial veto power over legislation. And that has often stymied Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a former European Council chief whose centrist Civic Coalition (KO) has clashed on multiple fronts with conservative President Andrzej Duda since it came to power in 2023. Anna Bednarska, a 27-year-old greengrocer, said she would be backing Nawrocki in the runoff because she believes his opponent "wants to introduce immigrants into Poland". "And I think it would be better for Poland to remain Poland." The final stretch of the election campaign saw Nawrocki mired in a few scandals. While arguing against a property tax, he claimed to only own one flat. Later it was revealed he had acquired a second one in a convoluted deal with an elderly man. A bombshell news report also alleged he had arranged prostitutes for guests while working as a hotel security guard. Nawrocki called the accusations "a bunch of lies" and said he would sue the news site that published the report.
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Rivals neck-and-neck ahead of Poland's 'clash of civilisations' vote
Warsaw's pro-EU mayor and a nationalist historian vying for Poland's presidency hold their last day of campaigning on Friday, with opinion polls predicting a close race in Sunday's vote, which will determine the direction of the key central European EU and NATO member. Centrist Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, 53, faces off against right-leaning Karol Nawrocki, 42, on Sunday in a runoff presidential vote, with some analysts describing the contest as a "clash of civilisations." Latest polls predict a close race, with 50.6 percent of the vote going to Trzaskowski and 49.4 percent to Nawrocki, a tiny difference within the polling margin of error. A victory for Trzaskowski would be a major boost for Poland's government, which has been in a political deadlock with the current president. It could also mean significant changes such as the introduction of civil partnerships for same-sex couples and easing Poland's near-total ban on abortion. A win for Nawrocki, backed by the right-wing Law and Justice Party, could undermine Poland's steadfast support for neighbouring Ukraine against Russia. Nawrocki, an admirer of US President Donald Trump, opposes NATO membership for Kyiv and has called for curbs on benefits for the estimated one million Ukrainian refugees in Poland. Analysts say a Nawrocki victory could also lead to fresh parliamentary elections in the EU and NATO member, which has been one of Europe's best economic performers. Given the narrow polling margins, the result of the election may not be known until Monday. "I would be cautious about popping the champagne on Sunday evening," said Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a political expert. Tens of thousands of supporters took part in rival rallies for both candidates on May 25, a week before the runoff. - 'Clash of civilisations' - The final result is expected to hinge on whether Trzaskowski can mobilise enough supporters to come out and vote and whether far-right voters will cast their ballots for Nawrocki. Far-right candidates fared better than expected in the first round of the election on May 18, getting more than 21 percent of the vote -- and leaving Nawrocki a larger pool of votes to draw upon. Trzaskowski won that round by a razor-thin margin of 31 percent against 30 percent for Nawrocki. Materska-Sosnowska called the election "a real clash of civilisations", pointing to major policy differences between candidates who have diverging views on abortion or LGBTQ rights. The job of Polish president is sometimes dismissed as a ceremonial post, but it comes with crucial veto power over legislation. And that has often stymied Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a former European Council chief whose centrist Civic Coalition (KO) has clashed on multiple fronts with conservative President Andrzej Duda since it came to power in 2023. In Kleszczow, a village in central Poland where far-right candidates got around a third of the vote in round one, most people AFP spoke to said they would vote for Nawrocki on Sunday. "If Trzaskowski wins, they (the ruling centrists) will sell the country, destroy it," 40-year-old Kamil Skulimowski, who works at the local coal mine, told AFP. Anna Bednarska, a 27-year-old greengrocer, said she would be backing Nawrocki in the runoff because she believes his opponent "wants to introduce immigrants into Poland". "And I think it would be better for Poland to remain Poland." The final stretch of the election campaign saw Nawrocki mired in a few scandals. While arguing against a property tax, he claimed to only own one flat. Later it was revealed he had acquired a second one in a convoluted deal with an elderly man. A bombshell news report also alleged he had arranged prostitutes for guests while working as a hotel security guard. Nawrocki called the accusations "a bunch of lies" and said he would sue the news site that published the report. bur/mmp/yad
Business Recorder
3 hours ago
- Politics
- Business Recorder
Rivals neck-and-neck ahead of Poland's ‘clash of civilisations' vote
WARSAW: Warsaw's pro-EU mayor and a nationalist historian vying for Poland's presidency hold their last day of campaigning on Friday, with opinion polls predicting a close race in Sunday's vote, which will determine the direction of the key central European EU and NATO member. Centrist Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, 53, faces off against right-leaning Karol Nawrocki, 42, on Sunday in a runoff presidential vote, with some analysts describing the contest as a 'clash of civilisations.' Latest polls predict a close race, with 50.6 percent of the vote going to Trzaskowski and 49.4 percent to Nawrocki, a tiny difference within the polling margin of error. Poland's ruling party candidate narrowly leads opinion poll ahead of Sunday vote A victory for Trzaskowski would be a major boost for Poland's government, which has been in a political deadlock with the current president. It could also mean significant changes such as the introduction of civil partnerships for same-sex couples and easing Poland's near-total ban on abortion. A win for Nawrocki, backed by the right-wing Law and Justice Party, could undermine Poland's steadfast support for neighbouring Ukraine against Russia. Nawrocki, an admirer of US President Donald Trump, opposes NATO membership for Kyiv and has called for curbs on benefits for the estimated one million Ukrainian refugees in Poland. Analysts say a Nawrocki victory could also lead to fresh parliamentary elections in the EU and NATO member, which has been one of Europe's best economic performers. Given the narrow polling margins, the result of the election may not be known until Monday. 'I would be cautious about popping the champagne on Sunday evening,' said Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a political expert. Tens of thousands of supporters took part in rival rallies for both candidates on May 25, a week before the runoff. 'Clash of civilisations' The final result is expected to hinge on whether Trzaskowski can mobilise enough supporters to come out and vote and whether far-right voters will cast their ballots for Nawrocki. Far-right candidates fared better than expected in the first round of the election on May 18, getting more than 21 percent of the vote – and leaving Nawrocki a larger pool of votes to draw upon. Trzaskowski won that round by a razor-thin margin of 31 percent against 30 percent for Nawrocki. Materska-Sosnowska called the election 'a real clash of civilisations', pointing to major policy differences between candidates who have diverging views on abortion or LGBTQ rights. The job of Polish president is sometimes dismissed as a ceremonial post, but it comes with crucial veto power over legislation. And that has often stymied Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a former European Council chief whose centrist Civic Coalition (KO) has clashed on multiple fronts with conservative President Andrzej Duda since it came to power in 2023. In Kleszczow, a village in central Poland where far-right candidates got around a third of the vote in round one, most people AFP spoke to said they would vote for Nawrocki on Sunday. 'If Trzaskowski wins, they (the ruling centrists) will sell the country, destroy it,' 40-year-old Kamil Skulimowski, who works at the local coal mine, told AFP. Anna Bednarska, a 27-year-old greengrocer, said she would be backing Nawrocki in the runoff because she believes his opponent 'wants to introduce immigrants into Poland'. The final stretch of the election campaign saw Nawrocki mired in a few scandals. While arguing against a property tax, he claimed to only own one flat. Later it was revealed he had acquired a second one in a convoluted deal with an elderly man. A bombshell news report also alleged he had arranged prostitutes for guests while working as a hotel security guard. Nawrocki called the accusations 'a bunch of lies' and said he would sue the news site that published the report.
Bloomberg
3 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Poland Presidential Election on June 1: What's at Stake
00:00 For anyone who's not been watching this vote as closely as you, just take us through who the candidates are and what exactly that campaigning on it is. Indeed, It's it's a bit of a nail biter and coin toss or whatever metaphor you want to use, but it's it's definitely a very tight race. So we have two candidates essentially in this runoff, as we mentioned, Warsaw mayor, who is a polyglot son of of a prominent jazz musician, Rafal Trzaskowski, and he's coming up against a fairly new face on the on on the political scene. Karol Nawrocki, he's a former boxer as well. And he has a bit of a checkered past that, you know, that's been coming to light and sort of keeping everyone excited about this race coming into Sunday. Yeah, it's if you look at those two characters, they basically show you how divided the country is. Two different versions of Poland, one with just Trzaskowski, who is who's very much pro-European. He's very friendly with the government and actually he's a candidate of the government. So government is hoping that by having him as a president, it will be easier for them to push forward with with a pro-EU agenda. On the other hand, Nawrocki is is very conservative. He's the representative of the opposition and he also got MAGA endorsement just this week. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem was in in Poland at CPAC conference, and she said, I'm here on behalf of President Trump and Karol Nawrocki should be your president. So so he's coming as this kind of who's who's railing against migration. He's very much skeptical of climate change. And he's standing for for traditional values, as he puts them. So, you know, you basically have two visions of Poland on the ballot this Sunday. Okay. So hugely consequential for Europe. Maybe another test of Trump's influence in Europe. But let's also just think about the market reaction, because so far, Poland's had this world beating rally this year. How much is this going to put that to the test? Indeed, the Polish assets, both stocks and bonds, but also the currency, has been on a tear. And this was basically a result of the fact that when when the current government came to power in 2023, the expectations were they were reversed. It was those times of populist government where, you know, Poland had for the past eight years and they will introduce reforms, they will get power to Poland, closer to to to the EU mainstream. And also Poland has has really envious metrics when it comes to the economy. It's one of the fastest growing in in the EU. So there were expectations that things will only get better for the Polish economy, for for where it's going next. And that's where we saw the the the markets reacting accordingly. Now, the big question now is Poland also has a huge deficit, which it also has a lot to spend on on defense. So the question is, if if the government doesn't get the president that they want that that will be working with them. It may put all these plans for reforms to test and put in question.
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Business Standard
a day ago
- Politics
- Business Standard
Poland holds presidential runoff, which Trump had sought to influence
Poland's presidential election has come down to a stark ideological choice: a liberal pro-European mayor versus a staunch nationalist conservative. They are polling so close that the outcome is impossible to predict in the run-off round on Sunday. It's not just a domestic affair. President Donald Trump has thrown his weight behind the nationalist candidate, Karol Nawrocki, and dangled the prospect of closer military ties if Poles choose him over liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski. A contest with global implications Trump met with Nawrocki earlier this month at the White House and sent his Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to a meeting of the conservative pressure group CPAC in Poland, where she offered a strong endorsement. Noem even dangled the prospect of closer US-Polish military ties in the event of a Nawrocki win with the implied warning that a Trzaskowski victory could jeopardize Poland's security. At stake is not only Poland's domestic course but also the international standing of a key European Union and NATO member on the alliance's eastern flank, in a region gripped by anxiety over Russia's war in Ukraine. Sunday's vote will either empower Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a pro-EU reformer, with a presidential ally who can advance his rule-of-law agenda or saddle him with a rival who could veto legislation and block government initiatives. Trzaskowski's supporters argue that a pro-European leader would enhance Poland's global standing during a time of war in Europe. Nawrocki's backers believe only conservative rule can safeguard national sovereignty and traditional Christian values, and they say Trump's support would greatly enhance Poland's security. Growing support for the populist right But the candidate who may ultimately decide the outcome is one who won't appear on the runoff ballot. Slawomir Mentzen, a 38-year-old far-right politician and beer producer from the central city of Torun, finished third in the first round of voting on May 18, with nearly 15 per cent of the vote. Though eliminated, his supporters often young, anti-establishment, and deeply sceptical of both Brussels and Poland's political establishment have become the most sought-after constituency in the country. Both remaining candidates have gone out of their way to court Mentzen and his base. In recent days, each man travelled to the north-central Polish town of Torun, famous for being the birthplace of astronomer Nicolaus Copernicus, to appear on Mentzen's YouTube channel, where he has built a following with a mix of libertarian economics, nationalist rhetoric, and anti-EU invective. His influence highlights a broader shift in Polish politics, where the far right once considered a fringe force is increasingly shaping the national agenda. It's also part of a larger trend of hard-right parties gaining traction across Europe. The appeal of right-wing forces in changing times Piotr Buras, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations' Warsaw office, says Poland is part of a larger pattern in which voters turn to populist forces amid rapid social change. But he also cites local factors, such as disillusionment with Tusk's coalition. That coalition, which spans the ideological spectrum, has struggled to agree on key issues, including liberalizing the abortion law a campaign promise. Meanwhile, outgoing conservative President Andrzej Duda has blocked parts of Tusk's agenda. Observers say the coalition's voters must be highly mobilized on Sunday to defeat Nawrocki. Many votes in the first round went to protest candidates. Among voters aged 1829, over 35 per cent backed Mentzen, and nearly 20 per cent supported a far-left candidate, Adrian Zandberg, according to exit polls. In addition, an extreme right-wing antisemite, Grzegorz Braun, won more than 6 per cent of the votes overall. Buras believes right-wing protest candidates are more appealing today than those on the left because they promise to restore a lost past, while the left promises a better future that many see as unattainable. The world is changing, society is changing very fast, much faster than anytime in the past," Buras said. People are worried and they vote for those who say we can go back to the glorious past. Campaigning on a YouTube stage Since the first round, Mentzen co-leader of the Confederation party has presented both candidates with an eight-point list of demands: no new taxes; defence of cash payments; expanded gun rights; and opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine, among others. Nawrocki, who appeared on Mentzen's show on June 22, signed on to all eight points including the controversial Ukraine stance breaking with his Law and Justice party's longstanding support for Kyiv's integration with the West. Trzaskowski appeared two days later. He said he could agree with some points, like fiscal restraint, but rejected others. He strongly defended LGBTQ+ rights and reaffirmed that Ukraine should eventually join NATO, once the war ends, calling it key to Poland's own security. The YouTube interviews have dominated the political conversation, underscoring how Mentzen, a TikTok-savvy outsider, has upended traditional campaigning. The exchange between Trzaskowski and Mentzen on Saturday was occasionally tense, especially over LGBTQ+ rights, but remained civil and substantive. In many ways it overshadowed a traditional televised debate the day before. The substance of that debate did not seem to change the trajectory of the campaign. The thing Poles discussed most was a brief moment when Nawrocki inserted something into his mouth which he later said was a tobacco pouch. Some have questioned if he is fit to be president if he couldn't get through a two-hour debate without taking a hit of tobacco. A post-debate meeting over beer After the sometimes sharp exchanges, Mentzen sat down for a beer with Trzaskowski and others in the pub he owns. The informal gathering was documented by Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, who was there as well. He posted a video on social media Saturday evening showing the group with the words: For a Poland that unites, not divides. The video quickly went viral, with commentators speculating about whether it was a spontaneous gesture or a calculated political move. It was also one more example, if more were needed, of how far-right forces in Europe are slowly becoming accepted. For Mentzen, the moment was also awkward. The man who made his name skewering the political elite appeared cozy with establishment figures. Critics on the hard right lashed out, revealing fractures in the movement he helped popularize. After dangling the promises of an endorsement for days, Mentzen on Wednesday afternoon said he wouldn't offer one to either candidate. Vote as your conscience tells you, he told his supporters.
