Latest news with #NeelKashkari
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Fed May Tweak Rates as Growth Cools
Neel Kashkari is sounding the alarm on a cooling economy and hinting the Fed may have to step in sooner than expected. Speaking on CNBC, he said with the labor market softening and prices inching higher, in the near term, it may become appropriate to start adjusting the federal funds rate. That's despite holding the range at 4.25%4.50% and penciling in two cuts this year. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with JOBY. He warned tariffs are a wild cardunlike anything we've seen in 100 yearsand could push core goods prices up. Kashkari admits he's watching how quickly those effects show up and whether they spill into other categories. He's open to tweaking rates even if it means pausing or reversing course once we get more clarity. If tariffs keep prices elevated while growth slows, investors may see rate tweaks rather than cuts. Investors will be tuning into the Fed's September 17 meeting for any hints of that shift. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Tariffs hit, Apple rises
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Wall Street and global stocks rose on Thursday, as Apple's domestic investment push, dovish noises on interest rates and a generally upbeat earnings season trumped chip stock hits and the arrival of the U.S. tariff day. The day's diary is topped by a likely Bank of England interest rate cut and U.S. weekly jobless numbers that take on unusual importance in light of last week's July payrolls confusion. * Stocks in Asia and Europe pushed higher even as U.S. tariffs were introduced, with Shanghai's index hitting its highest since 2021 following above-forecast Chinese import and export numbers for July. Although eight major trading partners accounting for about 40% of U.S. trade flows have reached framework deals to reduce tariffs to 15% or less, imports from Brazil, India, Switzerland and Canada face rates of 35% to 50%. Though, Taiwan and South Korea are breathing sighs of relief following exemptions from 100% chip import levies. * Expectations for Federal Reserve easing as soon as next month were buoyed again as two regional Fed chiefs - Minneapolis Fed boss Neel Kashkari and San Francisco's Mary Daly - indicated more rate cuts were coming this year. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he would likely appoint a temporary replacement to Adriana Kugler's vacant Fed board seat. Meanwhile, candidates to replace Chair Jerome Powell next year are likely down to three, including former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and White House adviser Kevin Hassett. * Fed easing speculation knocked the dollar back to 10-day lows, with Treasury yields remaining close to the week's three-month lows despite another underwhelming 10-year auction overnight and a long bond sale later today. Sterling was slightly firmer against the dollar but down on the euro, as the BoE looks set to lower British rates by a quarter point to 4% later today. Make sure to check out today's column, where I argue that investors looking for the impact of Trump's tariffs are looking at the wrong earnings season. Today's Market Minute * President Donald Trump's higher tariff rates of 10% to 50% on dozens of trading partners kicked in on Thursday, testing his strategy for shrinking U.S. trade deficits without massive disruptions to global supply chains, higher inflation and stiff retaliation from trading partners. * Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Thursday he will not compromise the interests of the country's farmers even if he has to pay a heavy price, in his first comments after Trump's salvo of a 50% tariff on Indian goods. * Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump will meet in the coming days, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Thursday, in what would be the first summit between leaders of the two countries since 2021. * Markets' relatively speedy acceptance of higher tariffs and threats to institutional independence raises the question: What happened to the last 40 years of economic orthodoxy? ROI columnist Jamie McGeever asks whether the Washington Consensus has been broken. * The U.S.-EU trade deal has been heavily criticised as a capitulation by the bloc. But Panmure Liberum investment strategist Joachim Klement argues that the European Union is likely not only to suffer less than the U.S. but may even see its economy benefit from the new global tariff regime. Latest Donald Trump News | Top Headlines on Donald Trump | Reuters Discover the latest headlines on Donald Trump, including coverage of his second presidency, trade and tariff policies, legal developments and more. Chart of the day Trump said on Wednesday that the United States would impose a tariff of about 100% on imports of semiconductors but offered up a big exemption - it will not apply to companies that are manufacturing in the U.S. or have committed to do so. South Korea's top trade envoy said major chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix would not be subject to the 100% levies. Taiwanese chip contract manufacturer TSMC was expected to be relatively unscathed as it has U.S. factories, so key customers such as Nvidia are unlikely to face increased tariff costs for U.S-made chips. Malaysia's trade minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz warned parliament his country would risk losing a major market in the United States. Today's events to watch * Bank of England policy decision and monetary policy report (7:00 AM EDT), with press conference from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey * U.S. weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM EDT), Q2 labor costs and productivity, June consumer credit (3:00 AM EDT); Mexico July inflation (8:00 AM EDT) * Mexico central bank policy decision (3:00 PM EDT) * Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic speaks * U.S. corporate earnings: Eli Lilly, Gilead, Zimmer Biomet, Warner Bros Discovery, Expedia, ConocoPhillips, Sempra, Constellation Energy, Alliant Energy, Evergy, Consolidated Edison, Motorola Solutions, Microchip Technology, GenDigital, Ralph Lauren, Monster Beverages, Block, GoDaddy, Live Nation, Wynn Resorts, Trade Desk, EOG, * U.S. Treasury auctions $25 billion of 30-year bonds Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (by Mike Dolan; editing by Alex Richardson) Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Reuters
5 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Morning Bid: Tariffs hit, Apple rises
LONDON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Wall Street and global stocks rose on Thursday, as Apple's domestic investment push, dovish noises on interest rates and a generally upbeat earnings season trumped chip stock hits and the arrival of the U.S. tariff day. The day's diary is topped by a likely Bank of England interest rate cut and U.S. weekly jobless numbers that take on unusual importance in light of last week's July payrolls confusion. * Stocks in Asia and Europe pushed higher even as U.S. tariffs were introduced, with Shanghai's index hitting its highest since 2021 following above-forecast Chinese import and export numbers for July. Although eight major trading partners accounting for about 40% of U.S. trade flows have reached framework deals to reduce tariffs to 15% or less, imports from Brazil, , Switzerland and Canada face rates of 35% to 50%. Though, Taiwan and South Korea are breathing sighs of relief following exemptions from 100% chip import levies. * Expectations for Federal Reserve easing as soon as next month were buoyed again as two regional Fed chiefs - Minneapolis Fed boss Neel Kashkari and San Francisco's Mary Daly - indicated more rate cuts were coming this year. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he would likely appoint a temporary replacement to Adriana Kugler's vacant Fed board seat. Meanwhile, candidates to replace Chair Jerome Powell next year are likely down to three, including former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and White House adviser Kevin Hassett. * Fed easing speculation knocked the dollar back to 10-day lows, with Treasury yields remaining close to the week's three-month lows despite another underwhelming 10-year auction overnight and a long bond sale later today. Sterling was slightly firmer against the dollar but down on the euro, as the BoE looks set to lower British rates by a quarter point to 4% later today. Make sure to check out today's column, where I argue that investors looking for the impact of Trump's tariffs are looking at the wrong earnings season. Today's Market Minute * President Donald Trump's higher tariff rates of 10% to 50% on dozens of trading partners kicked in on Thursday, testing his strategy for shrinking U.S. trade deficits without massive disruptions to global supply chains, higher inflation and stiff retaliation from trading partners. * Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Thursday he will not compromise the interests of the country's farmers even if he has to pay a heavy price, in his first comments after Trump's salvo of a 50% tariff on Indian goods. * Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump will meet in the coming days, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Thursday, in what would be the first summit between leaders of the two countries since 2021. * Markets' relatively speedy acceptance of higher tariffs and threats to institutional independence raises the question: What happened to the last 40 years of economic orthodoxy? ROI columnist Jamie McGeever asks whether the Washington Consensus has been broken. * The U.S.-EU trade deal has been heavily criticised as a capitulation by the bloc. But Panmure Liberum investment strategist Joachim Klement argues that the European Union is likely not only to suffer less than the U.S. but may even see its economy benefit from the new global tariff regime. Latest Donald Trump News | Top Headlines on Donald Trump | Reuters Discover the latest headlines on Donald Trump, including coverage of his second presidency, trade and tariff policies, legal developments and more. Chart of the day Trump said on Wednesday that the United States would impose a tariff of about 100% on imports of semiconductors but offered up a big exemption - it will not apply to companies that are manufacturing in the U.S. or have committed to do so. South Korea's top trade envoy said major chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix would not be subject to the 100% levies. Taiwanese chip contract manufacturer TSMC was expected to be relatively unscathed as it has U.S. factories, so key customers such as Nvidia are unlikely to face increased tariff costs for U.S-made chips. Malaysia's trade minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz warned parliament his country would risk losing a major market in the United States. Today's events to watch * Bank of England policy decision and monetary policy report (7:00 AM EDT), with press conference from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey * U.S. weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM EDT), Q2 labor costs and productivity, June consumer credit (3:00 AM EDT); Mexico July inflation (8:00 AM EDT) * Mexico central bank policy decision (3:00 PM EDT) * Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic speaks * U.S. corporate earnings: Eli Lilly, Gilead, Zimmer Biomet, Warner Bros Discovery, Expedia, ConocoPhillips, Sempra, Constellation Energy, Alliant Energy, Evergy, Consolidated Edison, Motorola Solutions, Microchip Technology, GenDigital, Ralph Lauren, Monster Beverages, Block, GoDaddy, Live Nation, Wynn Resorts, Trade Desk, EOG, * U.S. Treasury auctions $25 billion of 30-year bonds Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X., opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Business Recorder
5 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Australia, NZ dollars hit one-week highs amid US dollar malaise
SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars hit one-week highs on Thursday as their U.S. counterpart felt the heavy weight of rate cut bets, growth worries and tariff jitters, although stiff chart resistance loomed. The two also found some support from better risk appetite led by global stocks and from still strong Chinese trade data that showed exports beat forecasts in July as manufacturers made the most of a fragile tariff truce between Beijing and Washington. The Aussie edged up 0.2% at $0.6516, the highest in a week, having gained 0.5% overnight. It is well off a six-week low of $0.6419 but only back to the middle of the recent trading range between 64 cents and 66 cents. The kiwi dollar rose 0.3% to a one-week top of $0.5944, after rising 0.4% overnight. Major resistance lies at $0.6059 and $0.6120. Overnight, the dollar took another tumble from rising prospects of sooner and deeper Fed rate cuts. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said July jobs data was 'concerning' and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank may need to respond to a slowing economy. Investors are closely watching Trump's pick to fill a coming vacancy on the Fed's Board of Governors and candidates for the next chair of the central bank for the impact on monetary policy. Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 94% probability of a 25 basis point cut from the Fed in September, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. In total, traders see 60.5 basis points in cuts this year. Analysts at the National Australia Bank expect the Australian dollar to appreciate to 70 cents, but after a 2.4% fall in July, they revised their forecasts lower to 66 cents by September and 68 cents by December. 'Still pivotal to our weaker USD view is that the economy is in the midst of a cyclical downturn, with US growth converging towards the rate experienced in other major developing countries, extinguishing the U.S. economy's 'exceptionalism'.' Also aiding the Aussie a little is local data that showed Australia's surplus on goods trade rebounded sharply in June as exports of gold and coal shot higher. The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet next week and is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter-point to 3.6% on Tuesday, after skipping a chance to move last month in rare dissent. 'We also expect the 'vote split' to disappear at this meeting, with a 9-0 vote for a 25bp cut,' said Phil Odonaghoe, an economist at Deutsche Bank.
Zawya
5 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
Fed policymakers signal rising angst about cooling economy
WASHINGTON: Less than a week after deciding against an interest-rate cut, some Federal Reserve policymakers are signaling rising angst about a cooling U.S. labor market and a slowing economy, even as they continue to express uncertainty about the outlook for inflation, which remains stuck above the Fed's 2% goal. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Wednesday said that for him, it all adds up to a case for interest rate cuts in coming months. "The economy is slowing, and that means in the near term it may become appropriate to start adjusting," Kashkari said on CNBC's Squawk Box, adding that two quarter-percentage-point rate cuts by the end of the year "seems reasonable to me." Recent data "suggests the real underlying economy is slowing. I've got confidence that that is happening," Kashkari said. "How long can we wait until the tariff effects become clear? That's just weighing on me right now." Speaking early this week to Reuters, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said it could take six months or more to learn whether the Trump administration's tariffs will push up inflation persistently. Meanwhile, while she was "willing" to leave rates on hold last week, the slowing labor market makes her increasingly uncomfortable about making that same decision in upcoming meetings, she said. Like Kashkari, she views two rate cuts this year as probably appropriate, though given the state of the economy she said that doing more than two rate cuts is more likely than doing fewer. Neither Kashkari nor Daly has a vote on interest rate policy this year, but their arguments are similar to those made by two Fed governors who dissented at the Fed's decision last week to hold the policy rate steady while awaiting more clarity on how rising import tariffs will feed through to consumer prices. Two days after the meeting, the Labor Department released a monthly jobs report that showed weaker-than-expected job growth in July and big downward revisions to payroll estimates for May and June. "This is concerning," Fed Governor Lisa Cook said of the report, noting that revisions typically occur at inflection points in the economy. Cook did not say how the fresh labor market data has influenced her view on appropriate monetary policy. She, like Kashkari and Daly, said she is also focused on whether any increase in prices will be one time or more persistent. "It is critical that we try to understand better which one this could be, but it's limited and the information we have is limited and the way we can incorporate it into our models is limited," she said. President Donald Trump, who has pushed for sharply lower interest rates, has said he will nominate a new member to the Fed's Board shortly, following Fed Governor Adriana Kugler's surprise resignation last week. It's unclear if the new governor would function as a Fed chief-in-waiting until Jerome Powell completes his term as Fed chair on May 15, or would merely serve out the rest of Kugler's term, which runs to the end of January.
