Latest news with #NeerajDewan
Economic Times
29-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Market may inch upward gradually after digesting weak Q1 results, global noise: Neeraj Dewan
"These are the two or three key factors dragging the market. However, on the domestic front, the macro setup looks decent—monsoons have been good so far, interest rates remain low, and liquidity is improving. These factors should bode well for the second half of the year. The third and fourth quarters could see better performance," says Neeraj Dewan, Market Expert. ADVERTISEMENT First, your take on the markets—especially the earnings season. The IT sector hasn't surprised positively, and we've seen the market reaction. Within the banking pack, numbers from Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank haven't been very encouraging either. What's your take on the current market setup? Also, which sectors do you believe can still perform well? Neeraj Dewan: Yes, so far, the earnings have been quite mixed. As you mentioned, there has been disappointment in IT and banking numbers. Even some infrastructure companies haven't reported very encouraging results. June was expected to be a weak quarter, but even with those low expectations, the numbers have underdelivered, and that's something the market is reacting to. Secondly, the delay in the tariff settlement with the US is also weighing on market sentiment. I believe this will get resolved sooner or later. Another concern is the noise around Russian oil—if the US, possibly under Trump, decides to impose fresh sanctions, that could impact us. We've been benefiting from discounted Russian oil, so any disruption there would be a concern. These are the two or three key factors dragging the market. However, on the domestic front, the macro setup looks decent—monsoons have been good so far, interest rates remain low, and liquidity is improving. These factors should bode well for the second half of the year. The third and fourth quarters could see better after the ongoing market correction, I expect some constructive movement. The market should gradually move higher, now that results are in and we have clarity on interest rates, liquidity, and management commentary on order flows and execution. For instance, L&T's results today will be important to see if execution has picked up and what kind of order inflows they're reporting. ADVERTISEMENT Based on all this, we can build a constructive investment pitch for the rest of the year. Banking is one area I believe still has potential. While Kotak and Axis showed some stress pockets, there were also some positives—like Kotak suggesting MFI stress may have peaked. Bank credit should pick up, and once it does, the banking space should benefit. Valuations are still very attractive, especially for PSU NBFCs have also done well this quarter and could continue to perform. The infrastructure and capital goods sectors are also looking promising. As for IT, while the numbers weren't great, they weren't disastrous either. So the downside may now be limited, but it's still difficult to justify fresh buying at this point. It's better to wait and watch for now. ADVERTISEMENT How do you read the banking earnings? There seems to be a clear distinction—even among the large private banks—in terms of who's facing MFI pressure and who's not. For instance, Kotak's MFI book is small, but their commentary was quite cautious. IndusInd Bank had a muted quarter as well. It seems only ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank have managed to weather the storm. Neeraj Dewan: Yes, you're right. As you said, Kotak and Axis Bank numbers weren't great. But ICICI Bank did very well, and HDFC Bank also posted a reasonably strong set. PSU banks, in particular, are trading at very attractive valuations, and their books are was concern this quarter around NIM pressure and MFI stress, and these issues were visible in the reported numbers. But going forward, I believe MFI-related stress may subside as liquidity in the system improves. If we enter the festive season with a good monsoon and favorable economic conditions, that could ease some of the current concerns. ADVERTISEMENT As for NIM pressure—this is a common occurrence when interest rate cycles reverse—but as credit demand picks up, this should also ease. So while this quarter's results were mixed, I remain positive on the banking space looking ahead. The big question is—do you buy the recent declines in stocks like Axis and Kotak, or in midcap banks generally, or do you stick with the sector leaders? Neeraj Dewan: For now, it's better to stick with the leaders. I'm a bit cautious on Axis Bank given its recent results and concerns around asset quality. I would prefer to watch a few more quarters before taking a call there. ADVERTISEMENT Kotak Bank, despite disappointing numbers, may be the better of the two. If you see a meaningful decline in Kotak Bank, it could be considered, especially given their strong track record—even during the RBI embargo period, they managed well and bounced back strongly. But otherwise, I'd recommend sticking with leaders like ICICI Bank, which has posted a strong set of numbers. I also continue to like PSU banks due to the comfort in their valuations. If credit demand improves, they stand to benefit meaningfully because of the levels at which they're currently trading. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
29-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Market may inch upward gradually after digesting weak Q1 results, global noise: Neeraj Dewan
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel "These are the two or three key factors dragging the market. However, on the domestic front, the macro setup looks decent—monsoons have been good so far, interest rates remain low, and liquidity is improving. These factors should bode well for the second half of the year. The third and fourth quarters could see better performance," says Neeraj Dewan , Market so far, the earnings have been quite mixed. As you mentioned, there has been disappointment in IT and banking numbers. Even some infrastructure companies haven't reported very encouraging results. June was expected to be a weak quarter, but even with those low expectations, the numbers have underdelivered, and that's something the market is reacting the delay in the tariff settlement with the US is also weighing on market sentiment. I believe this will get resolved sooner or later. Another concern is the noise around Russian oil—if the US, possibly under Trump, decides to impose fresh sanctions, that could impact us. We've been benefiting from discounted Russian oil, so any disruption there would be a are the two or three key factors dragging the market. However, on the domestic front, the macro setup looks decent—monsoons have been good so far, interest rates remain low, and liquidity is improving. These factors should bode well for the second half of the year. The third and fourth quarters could see better after the ongoing market correction, I expect some constructive movement. The market should gradually move higher, now that results are in and we have clarity on interest rates, liquidity, and management commentary on order flows and execution. For instance, L&T's results today will be important to see if execution has picked up and what kind of order inflows they're on all this, we can build a constructive investment pitch for the rest of the year. Banking is one area I believe still has potential. While Kotak and Axis showed some stress pockets, there were also some positives—like Kotak suggesting MFI stress may have peaked. Bank credit should pick up, and once it does, the banking space should benefit. Valuations are still very attractive, especially for PSU banks Some NBFCs have also done well this quarter and could continue to perform. The infrastructure and capital goods sectors are also looking promising. As for IT, while the numbers weren't great, they weren't disastrous either. So the downside may now be limited, but it's still difficult to justify fresh buying at this point. It's better to wait and watch for you're right. As you said, Kotak and Axis Bank numbers weren't great. But ICICI Bank did very well, and HDFC Bank also posted a reasonably strong set. PSU banks, in particular, are trading at very attractive valuations, and their books are was concern this quarter around NIM pressure and MFI stress, and these issues were visible in the reported numbers. But going forward, I believe MFI-related stress may subside as liquidity in the system improves. If we enter the festive season with a good monsoon and favorable economic conditions, that could ease some of the current for NIM pressure—this is a common occurrence when interest rate cycles reverse—but as credit demand picks up, this should also ease. So while this quarter's results were mixed, I remain positive on the banking space looking now, it's better to stick with the leaders. I'm a bit cautious on Axis Bank given its recent results and concerns around asset quality. I would prefer to watch a few more quarters before taking a call Bank, despite disappointing numbers, may be the better of the two. If you see a meaningful decline in Kotak Bank, it could be considered, especially given their strong track record—even during the RBI embargo period, they managed well and bounced back otherwise, I'd recommend sticking with leaders like ICICI Bank, which has posted a strong set of numbers. I also continue to like PSU banks due to the comfort in their valuations. If credit demand improves, they stand to benefit meaningfully because of the levels at which they're currently trading.
Economic Times
16-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
How should you position yourself in IT and pharma now? Neeraj Dewan answers
Neeraj Dewan, Market Expert suggests a cautious approach to IT stocks. The IT sector's result season is not promising. Investors should await clarity on earnings and US business trends. Holding TCS and Infosys might be wise. Pharma tariffs are creating confusion. Focus on individual pharma stocks. Investors should stay invested in their chosen stocks. Monitor tariff developments closely for potential impacts. ADVERTISEMENT After the TCS as well as HCL Technologies Q1 results, it seems like IT will need to be avoided this quarter too? Neeraj Dewan: Yes, definitely the beginning of the result season has not been good for IT. It was on expected lines because we are not expecting good results from IT this quarter and even the immediate outlook is not that clear. So, one should wait to get more clarity; one, what is going to happen on the earnings front and second, what clues we have from the US regarding business going ahead. So, one should really wait and see how it goes. As far as largecap IT is concerned, if TCS, Infosys consolidate in this region and stop correcting, maybe it is not a good idea to sell them at this point. One should hold on to them to get more clarity or start accumulating. A lot of things are happening in the pharma space. There is some stock specific action from Zydus Life, positive news flow coming in for Zydus as well as Biocon for their diabetes drug Kirsty. Other than that, there is some commentary coming in from Trump where he is saying that pharma tariffs could be announced by the end of this month. What is your take on the sector? How should investors position themselves in this sector? Neeraj Dewan: As far as the tariffs are concerned, there are two things. One, Trump has been speaking about pharma tariffs for quite some time. Off and on, he comes out with statements but the market has not reacted too much and stocks have been doing well. Second, there are these country specific deals. There is still no clarity if India will have a country-specific deal. If there will be separate tariffs for all industries, then what is the idea of having a country specific deal?There is a lot of confusion over tariffs as of now. So, I do not think stocks will react too much. For an investor, it would be best to just invest in the stocks we like and stay invested in them as far as pharma is concerned. Pharma has been a stock specific bet and one cannot really invest across because now the stocks are not that cheap. They are quite fairly valued. We will get pockets there. We will get stocks which are doing very well and stock specific moves will come. So, you should stay invested in the ones you are betting on and then see how it goes as far as the tariffs are concerned. Is there merit in looking at the two-wheeler space right now? Yesterday, the entire pack was fairly charged up. We have seen an early onset of monsoon as well. The distribution so far as well pretty much seems to be on course. Is that going to reflect in the two-wheeler numbers? Neeraj Dewan: Yes, I think so because bigger companies like Hero Motors and Bajaj Auto have come out with some statements. They are going to be aggressive and they are looking at growth going ahead. We have seen that if we have a good monsoon, there is definitely a pickup in demand in the two-wheeler space. Going ahead, since inflation is low, there is excess liquidity in the system, and we are having a good monsoon as well, it will all augur well for the sector. ADVERTISEMENT Hero Motor is trading at discount to its long-term averages. At this price, getting into Hero Motor should make sense for a long-term investor. Similarly, in Bajaj Auto, we are yet to see some improvement happening. Let us see the results for this quarter and then we will take a call on Bajaj Auto. Hero Motor definitely as they are quoting 20 times historical and Bajaj Auto is at close to 30 times historical; 12 months trailing are showing attractive valuations. One should consider them for long-term investing. In terms of the stock market, insurance has been a nonstarter barring a few odd moves here and there. How should insurance be looked at? It may be a structural story but the stocks have not performed at all. Neeraj Dewan: You are right, it is a structural story where five-six years back, everyone believed it would be a good value generator. But everyone got invested also. You see long-term portfolios, they are holding on to some good insurance stock. The funds have been holding on to them. But that follow-up big buying is not coming because there is no exceptional gain which comes specifically from life insurance companies. ADVERTISEMENT Life insurance companies have been a drag and going ahead, we are looking at 10-12% return. We can still get that kind of return in this sector. But general insurance is one where there is still good scope. There can be growth there and we have seen those companies doing better also. So, if I have to pick one of the two, I will pick general insurance. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
16-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
How should you position yourself in IT and pharma now? Neeraj Dewan answers
Neeraj Dewan , Market Expert suggests a cautious approach to IT stocks. The IT sector's result season is not promising. Investors should await clarity on earnings and US business trends. Holding TCS and Infosys might be wise. Pharma tariffs are creating confusion. Focus on individual pharma stocks. Investors should stay invested in their chosen stocks. Monitor tariff developments closely for potential impacts. After the TCS as well as HCL Technologies Q1 results, it seems like IT will need to be avoided this quarter too? Neeraj Dewan : Yes, definitely the beginning of the result season has not been good for IT. It was on expected lines because we are not expecting good results from IT this quarter and even the immediate outlook is not that clear. So, one should wait to get more clarity; one, what is going to happen on the earnings front and second, what clues we have from the US regarding business going ahead. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 월 1만원으로 저소득 아이들의 한끼 선물하기 굿네이버스 더 알아보기 Undo So, one should really wait and see how it goes. As far as largecap IT is concerned, if TCS, Infosys consolidate in this region and stop correcting, maybe it is not a good idea to sell them at this point. One should hold on to them to get more clarity or start accumulating. A lot of things are happening in the pharma space. There is some stock specific action from Zydus Life, positive news flow coming in for Zydus as well as Biocon for their diabetes drug Kirsty. Other than that, there is some commentary coming in from Trump where he is saying that pharma tariffs could be announced by the end of this month. What is your take on the sector? How should investors position themselves in this sector? Neeraj Dewan: As far as the tariffs are concerned, there are two things. One, Trump has been speaking about pharma tariffs for quite some time. Off and on, he comes out with statements but the market has not reacted too much and stocks have been doing well. Second, there are these country specific deals. There is still no clarity if India will have a country-specific deal. If there will be separate tariffs for all industries, then what is the idea of having a country specific deal? There is a lot of confusion over tariffs as of now. So, I do not think stocks will react too much. For an investor, it would be best to just invest in the stocks we like and stay invested in them as far as pharma is concerned. Pharma has been a stock specific bet and one cannot really invest across because now the stocks are not that cheap. They are quite fairly valued. We will get pockets there. We will get stocks which are doing very well and stock specific moves will come. So, you should stay invested in the ones you are betting on and then see how it goes as far as the tariffs are concerned. Live Events You Might Also Like: Don't peg your expectations from market too high; look for growth stories: Shreyas Devalkar Is there merit in looking at the two-wheeler space right now? Yesterday, the entire pack was fairly charged up. We have seen an early onset of monsoon as well. The distribution so far as well pretty much seems to be on course. Is that going to reflect in the two-wheeler numbers? Neeraj Dewan: Yes, I think so because bigger companies like Hero Motors and Bajaj Auto have come out with some statements. They are going to be aggressive and they are looking at growth going ahead. We have seen that if we have a good monsoon, there is definitely a pickup in demand in the two-wheeler space. Going ahead, since inflation is low, there is excess liquidity in the system, and we are having a good monsoon as well, it will all augur well for the sector. Hero Motor is trading at discount to its long-term averages. At this price, getting into Hero Motor should make sense for a long-term investor. Similarly, in Bajaj Auto, we are yet to see some improvement happening. Let us see the results for this quarter and then we will take a call on Bajaj Auto. Hero Motor definitely as they are quoting 20 times historical and Bajaj Auto is at close to 30 times historical; 12 months trailing are showing attractive valuations. One should consider them for long-term investing. In terms of the stock market, insurance has been a nonstarter barring a few odd moves here and there. How should insurance be looked at? It may be a structural story but the stocks have not performed at all. Neeraj Dewan: You are right, it is a structural story where five-six years back, everyone believed it would be a good value generator. But everyone got invested also. You see long-term portfolios, they are holding on to some good insurance stock. The funds have been holding on to them. But that follow-up big buying is not coming because there is no exceptional gain which comes specifically from life insurance companies. Life insurance companies have been a drag and going ahead, we are looking at 10-12% return. We can still get that kind of return in this sector. But general insurance is one where there is still good scope. There can be growth there and we have seen those companies doing better also. So, if I have to pick one of the two, I will pick general insurance. You Might Also Like: Positive on auto, expect rate cuts to revive PV, two-wheeler sales: Varun Goel
Economic Times
18-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Long-term, India is the best story in the making: Anshul Saigal
Live Events You Might Also Like: How should you place your bets as Nifty makes a U-turn from 25,000? Vinay Rajani answers You Might Also Like: Neeraj Dewan on Israel-Iran conflict and why he prefers to bet on domestic consumption (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Founder,, says despite West Asia's geopolitical tensions , markets remain resilient, focusing on positive earnings trajectories. Financials, particularly private and PSU banks, show promise with positive price action and earnings tailwinds. A shift from unorganized to organized distribution across sectors like metals and pharma presents opportunities, alongside demand in capital goods and defence, suggesting long-term investment there is negative news flow from West Asia and we have to see this in sequence. Since 2022, geopolitical issues have played out across the globe. But other than temporary moves downward in the market, the markets have been quite resilient. Even in times like this, the markets have been quite resilient in the context of how big the situation is in the West Asian there is something cataclysmic, like a nuclear holocaust or something like that, it looks like the markets are taking all of these geopolitical issues in their own stride. The trend and the prevailing emotion are positive in the markets and as a result, we think markets over the long term will follow earnings trajectory which clearly from recent numbers, as also from commentary from management looks like it is going to be positive. I should say we are in a favourable risk-reward situation. In case this geopolitical event abates, the markets are primed for an up after sector is seeing tailwinds. We think that the financial space is quite interestingly poised. We in the last year saw an earnings downgrade from the previous year in this sector and also stocks across the board consolidated. But in recent times, price action in that sector has been quite positive, particularly in the private sector banking space. Also, the price action in the PSU banking space seems to be quite are upticks that we have seen over the last two-three months. Also, earnings look quite interesting in that space as well. Earnings seem to have tailwinds. So, banking and finance looks quite interesting. Another theme that we are seeing is that post the GST implementation, we saw a move from the unorganised to organised on the manufacturing side, but very little of that happened on the distribution see the second leg of that unorganised to organised move happening on the distribution side across sectors. Whether it is metals, pharma or capital goods, we are seeing that on the distribution side there is a move from the unorganised sector to the organised sector and as a result there are huge tailwinds in that space as the numbers are showing. That space has a few listed companies and the price action in those listed companies seems to suggest that this move has legs. We see in the distribution bracket quite a nice tailwind in demand, capital goods and is stock specific but in those sectors, we are seeing opportunity in discretionary spending in that space. There is opportunity across the board and one should not trade looking at the next quarter or two but rather invest for the next 5-10 years. India is the best story in the that is the crux of the situation as to whether most of the negativity is in the price. If you look at news flow and alongside that if you see price action, for some of the names that you mentioned like Tata Motors, the news flow was back-ended while the price action was front ended. So, price action was adverse and then the news flow became adverse as things played out on the clearly tells us that the markets are forward looking and reacting first while considering earnings and then the earnings will follow. Now with price action having been adverse in most players' cases and also news flow suggesting that things are bad, we believe that from here, earnings will determine price action and earnings in most cases seem to have bottomed out. Also, the volume trajectory for PVs in particular, in the current year is stable to the case of commercial vehicles, there is an acceleration and given the action on interest rates by RBI, it does look like there are tailwinds for discretionary spends that we can anticipate in the current year. It looks like autos may be in a bottoming out phase. Most of the negativity seems to be in the price and any positive action on both the macro as also the micro of individual companies should lead to positive price action in stock prices. That is how we see this you remember, a similar sort of situation happened on the frontline index in NSE some time back and the exchange witnessed a negative impact on expected earnings. It is quite likely that we will see the same thing here. Also, BSE in particular has seen an uptick on F&O activity and market share. With this particular change, there is likely an expectation that there will be a hit on market share going forward, which in turn could have an impact on earnings as well. Now given how the stock has behaved in the last two-three years and particularly in the last six months with so much expectation being built in, there is very little room for error and this development clearly has the makings of shaking up the stock and so we will have to wait and see. But clearly this is not the best. It is not the best thing to have happened when the price has behaved the way it you ask traders about what metrics they follow to understand short-term moves, they will tell you that there is something called the MVP indicator, which is momentum, volume, price. If an uptick on all three parameters is anticipated, then the markets will see an up move going in the current phase of our markets, we have seen about a 10% move in Nifty and thereafter, there has been some amount of consolidation on the back of mostly geopolitical tensions and also to some extent, the Q4 derating in numbers that we have seen. However, that derating has been tempered around 2% to 3%.Given this sort of a situation and for the markets to consolidate and not really derail or fall, tells us about the emotion of the market which seems to be on an uptrend. Given that the earnings trajectory may have bottomed out as last year was a weak year and also that geopolitical tensions may be at peak and may have only downside from here both on earnings and also on geopolitical issues, we may have positive triggers going any of those two things or both combined play out positively for the markets, these markets will probably move up. The emotion in the markets is clearly to move up from here not so much down.
