Latest news with #NitinRaheja
Time of India
13 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Julius Baer sees consumption revival in India taking stocks to record high
Julius Baer Group is expecting Indian stocks to hit a new high in the second half of the fiscal year, as domestic consumption recovers. 'The biggest theme going forward will be a revival in consumption in India,' Nitin Raheja, head of discretionary equities at Julius Baer India, said in an interview. One third of his portfolio is in consumption-linked themes, and he's increasing bets on retailers focused on tier-two cities and apparel firms. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Kulkas yang belum Terjual dengan Harga Termurah (Lihat harga) Cari Sekarang Undo Lower- and middle-income segments will lead the pickup in India's consumer spending, aided by slowing inflation, abundant monsoon rains and income-tax cuts, said Raheja, who oversees portfolio management services and alternative investment funds for the Zurich-based wealth manager in India. There was a K-shaped recovery in India after the Covid-19 pandemic, and the bottom part which suffered the most will likely now see a revival, he added. Live Events While elevated valuations could keep the market 'range-bound' in the next few months, Raheja expects the benchmark NSE Nifty 50 Index to scale fresh highs after October, as consumer demand flows into corporate profits. The gauge is 4.6% away from its peak set in September and the central bank's jumbo rate cut Friday is further raising expectations of a record-breaking surge. 'Private consumption, the mainstay of aggregate demand, remains healthy, with a gradual rise in discretionary spending,' Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said Friday. 'Rural demand remains steady, while urban demand is improving.'
Economic Times
13 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Julius Baer sees consumption revival in India taking stocks to record high
Julius Baer Group is expecting Indian stocks to hit a new high in the second half of the fiscal year, as domestic consumption recovers. ADVERTISEMENT 'The biggest theme going forward will be a revival in consumption in India,' Nitin Raheja, head of discretionary equities at Julius Baer India, said in an interview. One third of his portfolio is in consumption-linked themes, and he's increasing bets on retailers focused on tier-two cities and apparel firms. Lower- and middle-income segments will lead the pickup in India's consumer spending, aided by slowing inflation, abundant monsoon rains and income-tax cuts, said Raheja, who oversees portfolio management services and alternative investment funds for the Zurich-based wealth manager in India. There was a K-shaped recovery in India after the Covid-19 pandemic, and the bottom part which suffered the most will likely now see a revival, he added. While elevated valuations could keep the market 'range-bound' in the next few months, Raheja expects the benchmark NSE Nifty 50 Index to scale fresh highs after October, as consumer demand flows into corporate profits. ADVERTISEMENT The gauge is 4.6% away from its peak set in September and the central bank's jumbo rate cut Friday is further raising expectations of a record-breaking surge.'Private consumption, the mainstay of aggregate demand, remains healthy, with a gradual rise in discretionary spending,' Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said Friday. 'Rural demand remains steady, while urban demand is improving.' (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Bloomberg
14 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Julius Baer Sees Consumption Revival in India Taking Stocks to Record High
Julius Baer Group is expecting Indian stocks to hit a new high in the second half of the fiscal year, as domestic consumption recovers. 'The biggest theme going forward will be a revival in consumption in India,' Nitin Raheja, head of discretionary equities at Julius Baer India, said in an interview. One third of his portfolio is in consumption-linked themes and he's increasing bets on retailers focused on tier-two cities and apparel firms.
Time of India
27-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
No value in market, it's time of growth investors; focus on alpha generation in new spaces: Prateek Agrawal
Prateek Agrawal , MD & CEO, MOAMC , highlights a period of simultaneous emergence of high-growth sectors , reminiscent of the '90s software boom. He emphasizes focusing on alpha generation in these new spaces, rather than index performance. MOAMC portfolios encompass diverse growth areas like EMS, renewable energy, defence, NBFCs, capital markets, luxury, and new tech, seeking growth opportunities with sensible valuations. There seems to be a bit of a pressure on the higher levels for the benchmark indices though we have seen almost a double-digit return from the April lows. What is the big theme that you are catching for the Indian markets right now? Prateek Agrawal : For the Indian markets, the thing to look forward to is to benefit from low oil prices. Government finances could look significantly better than budgeted because lower oil means some bit of gains goes to the population, some bit of gains goes to the government. Government finances look good. Hopefully, either the growth, the spending increases or the borrowing reduces which means further downward pressure on interest rates. So, lower inflation and lower interest rates. We had two rate cuts. We may have two more and that makes it very good for risk asset classes like equity. So, that is the threat to look forward to for India. There are uncertainties, for example will the US do a deal or not? But the direct impact of that at least in the immediate term on India should be very low. We export just about $80 billion in a $4.1 trillion economy and spaces that may benefit if the UK deal is of any guidance are hardly there in the market. We are one economy which is very inward looking and that is a positive in a period like this, where so much is happening in the world. That is what it is for India. When you say lower oil prices, are you saying buy banks and buy rate sensitives, or buy consumers sensitives because less oil prices is good for consumers, for companies and for margin expansion? Prateek Agrawal: Yes, some bit of benefit will go into manufacturing and that is something we like; to airlines maybe. So, that is import parity pricing on cost. If the traffic increases, there would be higher margins, but not for banks, as if more rate cuts happen than anticipated, then the pressure on NIMs will start to manifest itself. NBFCs, yes, for the same reason that their input is money from banks and the cost of that would reduce. Live Events You Might Also Like: Markets likely to trend and hit new highs in H2; 3 themes to deliver multi-year returns: Nitin Raheja This market right now does not have too many concerns barring that centred around valuation. Tariffs, macro, geopolitics are getting sorted out. Globally, wars are getting sorted out. Are we nearing the peak of good news because markets climb the wall of worry and come down on a ray of hope? Prateek Agrawal: We have seen investors still worrying a hell of a lot because a lot of events in the recent past have caused turmoil. The flows into mutual funds were not very strong in the last two months. This month could be an encore. So, it is not all positive. But one positive which is happening and which you missed is a good result season versus what was expected. A 3-4% earnings growth was expected, but we are getting much better earnings growth. So, there are things to fuel the rally forward even if we talk about the immediate term. Weaker dollars, DXY at sub-99 has happened after a long while, and that points to the dollar moving away from the US all over the world and if India sticks out as being slightly better, then we should get some share of that. So, foreigners would also be buying more than usual. Domestics will continue to buy. The IPOs are still some distance away. The big momentum would be some distance away. It is good for the secondary market. A one, one-and-a-half-month period is a sweet spot for the secondary market. The earning season is behind us; the index has crawled back to the 25K mark. There is good buoyancy even in the broader market. Where do you still see value and growth visibility coupled with that on the table? Prateek Agrawal: Simple, there is no value. If you are hunting for value, this is not the market for you. Hunt for growth. There are two styles of making money, the value style and the growth style. The best of value is behind us. Being growth investors, lower interest rates with continued good growth outlook is a very good combo for growth investing . We think our time has come. You Might Also Like: 4 new IPOs coming; should you go for them? Here's how Abhishek Gaoshinde rates them When you say there is no value in the market, then why should one be invested in mutual funds? Prateek Agrawal: Kyoki growth toh hai (But there is growth). This is a period in the life of a country when several new spaces which offer strong growth not for one year but multiple years are all coming up at once. In the '90s, you got software. New space delivered huge growth for several years. In the same light, if we see the last five years and it is happening as we speak, many newer spaces are emerging in the market which offer the same combo. We have been saying this now like a parrot every time you have me that it is not a period of the index, it is a period of alpha. It is a period of these newer spaces where growth and sustenance of growth is of another order versus the index. You have been bullish on the EMS space as well. How do you see the value, valuations, as well as the growth within this particular segment? From here on. how do you see the stocks moving as well if at all? Prateek Agrawal: What we run is portfolios not single stock, single sectors. All the growth spaces find representation in our portfolio. Yes, EMS is there. Yes, renewable energy is there. Yes, defence is there. Yes, NBFCs are there. Capital market plays are there. Luxury is there and more. New tech is there. As for EVs, till now we have not found a name, and so it is not there but that is where growth is. Now, we have to find spaces where growth corrected for valuations make sense, which is what managers do. If you look at our fund house, these are spaces you will find in practically all of our funds. That is the method in the madness of what we do. We are out and out growth investors. We think our portfolios are some of the highest growth in earnings portfolios in the country.
Economic Times
27-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Markets likely to trend and hit new highs in H2; 3 themes to deliver multi-year returns: Nitin Raheja
Nitin Raheja, Head - Discretionary Equities, Julius Baer Wealth Advisors, says a fall in inflation which has impacted the purchasing power of the middle class as well as falling interest rates should lead to a revival in the bottom K of consumption towards the second half of this year. So, combined with the rural as well as urban consumption, the bottom K, which has been the struggling part of the economy post Covid, should make a comeback and that should have a big impact. Raheja says the broader consumption story is a compounding story and should come back and do well over the next few years. The manufacturing theme is going to play itself out and investments in EMS should continue to deliver. These are multi-year themes that will deliver returns over periods of time. Indian markets are holding up very well because from the March and April lows and we have already gained almost 13% on the index front. The big question is, are Indian markets back in form or are again frothy, given the runup in the mid and small end of the market? Nitin Raheja: It has been an absolutely unprecedented rally which started post the announcement of the ceasefire. This also got to do with the fact that dollar has been in a structurally weak phase which has seen the rupee being stronger relative to the dollar and that has meant that foreigners have actually put in money and that is one big change and a differentiating thing that we have seen in the last month, and more so post the ceasefire. That has driven up the markets. It has been a hugely liquidity driven rally. Having said that, some of the concerns that resulted in the correction that we saw post October had to do with earnings and the slowing down of earnings and also a tempering of GDP growth expectations. They remain very much in place. What we saw post September was when there was disappointment as far as earnings were concerned. Analysts went the other way in terms of their expectations and as December and March numbers came, they were not as bad as expected. So, we have once again seen a little bit of re-rating. I continue to believe that in the short term, valuations and slowing GDP growth will act as an overhang and we are in a time correction zone wherein you will see the markets trade within a range as such, maybe towards the upper end of the range considering the liquidity flows, but over a longer period of time, post the kind of monsoons that is being expected and was being talked about earlier in the programme, also with the festival season, we should see markets trend and hit new highs towards the second half. Monsoon has arrived earlier this year and there is going to be an impact of that. Could you help us understand where do you see the sectoral impact especially in the FMCG, agri inputs, and rural focused stocks? Nitin Raheja: Rural is one of the key beneficiaries. Already the feedback that is coming about is from a perspective. A) Of course, there has been this whole hike in MSP over the last few years plus with monsoons being good, even last year and this year, you should see rural start to come back dramatically and that would have impact as far as FMCG and even some of the consumer durable plays or as such. But against that we would also see two other things that have taken place. One is the changes that we had as far as tax is concerned especially for the lower middle class wherein up to 12 lakhs you will land up saving on tax and so on and so forth. A fall in inflation which has impacted the purchasing power of the middle class as well as falling interest rates should also lead to a revival in the bottom K of consumption towards the second half of this year. So, combined with the rural as well as urban consumption, the bottom K, which has been the struggling part of the economy post Covid should revive and that can have a big impact. The last time we connected, you used to like some of the themes within the broader market like garments, auto ancillary, and even EMS as a play. Give us the latest on these themes. Do you continue to be bullish on any new additions in your latest theme or sector-wise view if you want to share with us which is looking interesting to you right now? Nitin Raheja: Broadly from a long-term structural growth play perspective, we continue to like the consumption theme which is the premiumization of consumption. As we are moving our per capita GDP from $2,500 to say $3,000 in the next two years given these growth rates, we are going to see consumption go up and premiumization of consumption which is already visible whether you see premium automobiles, premium apparels, premium real estate, travel, and so on and so will continue and because the theme is resilient relatively to inflation and interest rates, but the broader consumption story is a compounding story that should come back and that should do well over the next few years. We think the manufacturing theme in India is going to play itself out and we are seeing investments in EMS which should continue to deliver. These are multi-year themes and will probably deliver returns over periods of time. So, the consumption story is coming back very soon. Apart from that, I want to get your view on the earnings front, like you were just mentioning in the beginning. The last time we spoke you had said the earnings slowdown will take a couple of quarters to improve. Now, Q4 earnings are almost over. What are your thoughts there and in which particular sectors do you feel improvement has started on a steady note? Nitin Raheja: If you look at the earnings that have come out, there has been no clear sectoral trend. Within sectors, we have seen some businesses depending on the business models do better. But across sectors, we have not seen structural earnings growth, like premiumization of consumption has shown itself. We are seeing the hotel industry deliver good numbers. We have seen airlines deliver good numbers. So, travel has been one secular theme that we have seen among all of this lot. But otherwise, if we were to scan through beyond premiumization, it has actually been very stock specific. Even in banking and financial services, the larger banks do far better than the smaller banks and the regional banks. We have seen NBFCs do better and within NBFCs, we have seen a certain pack, especially the larger NBFCs do better because the ability to raise capital in a tight scenario that prevailed over the six months gave the large guys an advantage. Now that liquidity is surplus and we should see the small banks and the smaller NBFCs starting to come back. Your market outlook is that in the second half the markets are expected to do a lot better than the first half. Give us some sense what factors will the market look forward to? Is it just the better earnings outlook or rather what has been happening in the global macro setup is also expected to stabilise a bit? What cues will the markets be looking forward to in the second half and which sectors can participate the most? Nitin Raheja: When you look at India as a market, 57% of our GDP comprises domestic consumption and so consumption doing well is a very important and essential part and that is supplemented by capital expenditure or infrastructure spending. If you look at these two buckets from the economic perspective, if consumption comes back, you should see the economic growth being very strong and resilient. That being in place, we should start seeing corporate earnings starting to show up out there. So, in my own view, the fact that inflation has turned benign which has enabled interest rate cuts, which has enabled the central bank to flood the market with liquidity is all laying the grounds for the economy to come back. In light of this, the reason I say consumption first is because that is more domestic-oriented. When we look at manufacturing or infrastructure and capex plays, that is being led by to some extent global uncertainty and that could have some impact in terms of what allocations are done. We have not really seen private capex come back in a big way. Even the capex plays that we have seen come back are more in the nature of power which is internal. So, whether it is transmission lines or renewable energy that is again internal, what is happening in India is largely going to determine India's growth going ahead. In that sense, we are relatively insulated from global plays and with more clarity on tariffs coming about, hopefully in the next few months we should also see more clarity in terms of global plays coming. My own belief is a good monsoon, a good festival season driven by consumption should be the driver in place. I want to get your specific view on the auto space and within that segment the two wheelers and tractor space, like you just said because of the early onset of the monsoon, we could have demand recovery coming in. You are bullish on the consumption story. So, what is your outlook on this space especially given the kind of numbers we have seen in quarter four and sales numbers that have sort of remained a mixed trend. Nitin Raheja: The auto space is going to be driven by model accretion into each one's portfolio and we have seen that whenever you have had a new model accretion phase, companies start to do well as such. Two-wheelers as a space should come back and contrary to what a lot of people believe, that should be the absolute bottom end. Two-wheelers, given the aspirational element, we are even seeing in the semi-urban areas, demand for higher-end two-wheelers making a comeback. Tractors should continue to do well. It has had very strong growth over the last one year and we are optimistic on that part of the segment market also.
