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Yahoo
31-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Safe-haven gold gains on tariff uncertainty ahead of August 1 deadline
By Sarah Qureshi and Noel John (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Thursday as traders turned to the safe haven asset amid ongoing tariff uncertainty ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's August 1 deadline to end negotiations. Spot gold was up 0.7% at $3,296.46 per ounce, as of 12:47 p.m. ET (1647 GMT), after rising as much as $3,314.65 earlier today. U.S. gold futures slipped 0.2% to $3,294. "We've seen an uptick in trade uncertainty as we approach this August 1st deadline for tariffs... just a little bit of a revival of the safe haven bid," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals. Trump said he had agreed to extend an existing trade deal with Mexico for 90 days and continue talks over that period with the aim of signing a new deal. This followed a day after he made a blitz of tariff announcements on Wednesday, including on imports from Brazil and South Korea, ahead of the deadline for higher U.S. tariff rates. U.S. inflation increased in June as tariffs on imports started raising the cost of some goods. The PCE index rose 0.3% last month after an upwardly revised 0.2% gain in May. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday held interest rates steady in 4.25%-4.50% range, and Chair Jerome Powell's comments after the decision dampened hopes for a September rate cut. Gold thrives in a low-interest rate environment as it is a non-yielding asset. Investors now await the U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday for more clues on the Fed's rate path. Spot silver dropped 1.3% to $36.66 per ounce, its lowest since July 7. Platinum fell to its lowest level since June 24, easing 1.4% to $1,295.06, and palladium lost 0.9% to $1,194.63, reaching an over two-week low. "It would not be surprising if strong selling pressure in silver futures is partly due to sympathy selling amid the big copper market meltdown," Jim Wyckoff, a senior analyst at Kitco Metals, said. [MET/L]
Zawya
05-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Goldman Sachs sees 410,000-bpd hike in OPEC+ June supply
Goldman Sachs on Friday said it expects OPEC+ to announce a second consecutive increase in supply for June on Saturday, due to modest compliance from Kazakhstan, lower-than-expected OECD inventories, and Saudi Arabia's ability to handle lower oil prices. The Wall Street bank expects the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) to announce a 410,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) increase in supply for June in its meeting on Saturday, from its prior estimate of 140,000 bpd, according to a note. The OPEC+ meeting was moved up to Saturday from the original plan of Monday, three sources told Reuters on Friday. The expected increase would be three times the level agreed in December to start unwinding cuts. Goldman Sachs' prior OPEC forecast relied on a substantial rise in compliance with production cuts, but Kazakhstan's compliance has risen only modestly, it said. Moreover, inventories in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries for April undershot the bank's expectations by 28 million barrels due to supply misses in Venezuela and U.S. shale. Saudi Arabia has also signaled that it can weather lower oil prices, consistent with research from Goldman Sachs' economists, the bank said in the note. "This week's drop in oil prices, and the rises in implied volatility and put skew suggest that the market's central expectation has also converged to a 410,000-bpd increase," Goldman Sachs said. Oil fell 8% this week in their biggest weekly losses since the end of March ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, with Brent crude settling at $61.29 a barrel on Friday and West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) at $58.29 a barrel. Goldman maintained its oil price forecast, expecting Brent to average $63 and WTI $59 for the remainder of 2025, and Brent at $58 and WTI at $55 in 2026. The bank estimated that a global slowdown or a complete reversal of the 2.2 million bpd of voluntary OPEC+ cuts could push Brent prices into the $40s in 2026, and below $40 in an unlikely extreme scenario. (Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru Editing by Marguerita Choy)
Yahoo
16-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US cotton exports to India rise on lower prices, tariff uncertainties
By Noel John (Reuters) - U.S. upland cotton exports to India have risen in the past few months fueled by global tariff conflicts, declining American prices and rising demand in the South Asian country, industry experts said. Exports to India from February to April jumped to 155,260 running bales, from 25,901 shipped during a year ago period, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) data. The exports hit an over 2-1/2-year high in the week of February 20. The increase comes as Washington-Beijing trade tensions escalate, reducing U.S. cotton exports to China. China will impose 125% tariffs on U.S. goods, up from the 84% previously announced, the finance ministry said on Friday. With these tariffs and a drop in China's demand, upland cotton grown in Texas and other regions is now finding a market in India, according to Ajay Kedia, director of Kedia Advisors. At the same time, exports to China are expected to decrease, said Justin Cardwell, head of research and technology at Alternative Option. India is the world's second-largest cotton producer after China, as well as one of the world's largest cotton yarn processors and exporters. However, declining yields have recently turned the country from a net exporter to a net importer of the fibre. India mainly imports Extra Long Staple (ELS) cotton from the U.S., benefiting from a 10% duty exemption, unlike short staple cotton which has an 11% import duty. "The U.S. ELS cotton remains cost-effective for many Indian buyers due to its higher ginning efficiency, better lint yield, and superior fibre quality," said Kedia. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) this year lowered its cotton production estimate by 250,000 bales to 30.1 million bales, marking a 7.84% drop from the 2023-24 season. ICE cotton futures have dropped nearly 5% so far this year. India could see a cotton shortfall of 2.5 million bales this year, a gap that could be bridged with increased imports, said Y. G. Prasad, director of Central Institute for Cotton Research. India's cotton imports in 2024/25 are expected to double due to falling production, according to the CAI. India also imports cotton from Australia, Brazil, and Egypt. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
31-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Softer demand outlook to weigh on oil, OPEC+ walks a tightrope: Reuters poll
By Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Noel John (Reuters) - Oil prices are set to remain under pressure in 2025 as U.S. tariffs and slowing economic growth in India and China weigh on demand, while OPEC+ pushes forward with plans to increase output, a Reuters poll showed. A survey of 49 economists and analysts in March forecasts Brent crude will average $72.94 per barrel in 2025, down from February's estimate of $74.63. U.S. crude is expected to average $69.16 per barrel, slightly lower than last month's $70.66 outlook. With global crude balances expected to widen by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, the market is teetering on the edge of surplus, said Florian Grunberger, senior analyst at Kpler. "This shift is driven by a weaker macroeconomic outlook in China and underperformance in Indian demand, which more than offset a modest improvement in European demand." The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) this month forecast global oil demand to rise by 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 1.43 million bpd in 2026. However, analysts caution that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans could derail this trajectory, as they could trigger economic slowdowns and drive up global inflation. Since returning to office in January, Trump has reinstated a "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran to cut its oil exports to zero, and announced a 25% tariff on any country buying oil or gas from Venezuela. Meanwhile, ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine could culminate in the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Russia at some point, analysts say. "More U.S. sanctions against producers like Iran and Venezuela could lead to a smaller world oil supply and higher prices," but a comeback of Russian oil to the markets could weigh on prices, said Frank Schallenberger, head of commodity research at LBBW. Analysts widely expect OPEC+, which includes OPEC members plus Russia and other allies, to remain flexible with production increases. The group will likely stick to its plan to boost oil production for a second consecutive month in May, four sources told Reuters. "We do not think that OPEC+ will increase supply materially this year but will instead attempt to push oil prices higher by letting demand outstrip supply during the last three quarters of the year," said John Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors. Sign in to access your portfolio
