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How Budget 3. 0's focus on infrastructure investment could transform South Africa's property market
How Budget 3. 0's focus on infrastructure investment could transform South Africa's property market

IOL News

time20-05-2025

  • Business
  • IOL News

How Budget 3. 0's focus on infrastructure investment could transform South Africa's property market

Pressure is mounting on Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana as he is expected to table the National Budget Review for the third attempt in Parliament on Wednesday after tensions within the Government of National Unity coalition over an increase in value-added tax (VAT) rates led to the budget being amended and re-tabled three times. Image: File As the Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana re-tables the revised National Budget on Wednesday, the major expectation will be around the fiscal aggregates, specifically the budget deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio. Professor Waldo Krugell, an economist from the School of Economic Sciences at the North-West University, said whatever spending cuts the Minister comes up with will still need to protect frontline services and maintain the path of fiscal consolidation. 'The influence on the property sector is quite indirect, but if he is able to do that, it can increase business confidence and investment in general, and that is good for property. A more sustainable fiscal stance will also help to bring down interest rates on long-term government debt, which is good for other interest rates in the long run,' Krugell said. Dr Meshel Muzuva, the Academic Programme Leader at the Management College of Southern Africa's (MANCOSA) School of Business Excellence, said as South Africa prepares for the re-tabling of what is now known as Budget 3.0, expectations are high, and the stakes are even higher. She said this iteration of the national budget arrives amid a shifting political landscape, a weakened growth outlook, and growing fiscal pressures. 'It is more than just a reset; it is an opportunity to reinforce fiscal credibility while laying the groundwork for inclusive economic recovery,' Muzuva said. She added that with GDP projections revised downward and inflation easing, the Finance Minister faces the tough task of balancing lower tax revenues against growing spending demands, all while maintaining the commitment to fiscal consolidation. 'Despite some relief in the form of improved corporate tax collections and a R15 billion closing cash surplus, fiscal space remains tight. The main budget deficit has improved slightly to 4.5% of GDP (Investec, 2025), but with debt levels still elevated, tough trade-offs are inevitable.' For the property sector, the academic said the budget is a significant development. She said they would be looking out for infrastructure investment in increased allocations to transport, energy, and housing as this could unlock new development opportunities and boost land values. She said they will also be looking for tax policy as changes to transfer duties, capital gains tax, or bracket creep could impact property transactions and investor confidence. 'Any upward shift in transaction costs would likely dampen demand, especially in the mid-tier and high-end residential markets.' Muzuva said that while the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) sets rates, fiscal policy can influence borrowing costs. She said a stable budget could help ease long-term interest rate pressures, benefiting mortgage affordability and real estate financing. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ The academic added that they would also be looking for housing incentives as government support for affordable housing or urban densification initiatives would be welcomed by the sector. However, she warned that, given current fiscal limitations, expectations around substantial incentives should remain measured. Tsekiso Machike, the spokesperson for the Minister of Human Settlements, said that the shrinking government's fiscus with the department budget cuts and like any other government department and institution. 'We would appreciate it if we could be allocated more money to enable the department to accelerate its housing delivery programme to the deserving and qualifying beneficiaries and eradicate the housing backlog. "However, we are looking forward to the upcoming Budget and are optimistic that there will be a reasonable allocation of funds to the department under the circumstances of budget cuts and constraints,' Machike said. Adrian Goslett, CEO of RE/MAX of Southern Africa and chairman of the Real Estate Business Owners of South Africa (REBOSA) notes that this about-face was born of coalition politics, but said it ultimately reflects a commitment to stable, consensus-driven economic management, a factor he views as crucial for investor confidence in the country. 'When the Budget 3.0 is announced, I'll be focusing on the scrapped VAT increase and how the government plans to compensate for the revenue gap – hopefully, there will be no reversal of the increased exemption threshold for transfer duty from R1.1 million to R1.21 million,' Goslett said. He said one of the less visible but critical outcomes of the budget saga is its impact on the interest rate outlook. ' By avoiding a VAT-induced price spike, Budget 3.0 removes one potential upward driver of inflation, which could help the case for interest rates to remain steady (or even ease) later in the year,' Goslett said. Muzuva said Budget 3.0 is a pivotal opportunity to restore confidence. She added that for the property sector, the focus will be on whether the government can prioritise growth-enabling investments, protect infrastructure commitments, and send a clear signal that South Africa remains open for investment even in a constrained fiscal climate. Reezwan Sumad, a research analyst at Nedbank CIB, said on Tuesday morning, the local markets are likely to remain cautious ahead of both the budget and the meeting between the South African and American delegations on Wednesday. 'Until the outcomes of these are known, participants are likely to remain on the sidelines,' Sumad said. Independent Media Property

Experts warn South Africa cannot afford tariff showdown
Experts warn South Africa cannot afford tariff showdown

The Citizen

time15-05-2025

  • Business
  • The Citizen

Experts warn South Africa cannot afford tariff showdown

Analysts argue South Africa has no muscle for a tariff war with the US and should instead pursue strategic diplomacy. Experts are divided how South Africa should deal with US tariffs in light of China's success in forcing the US to drop the exorbitant tariffs it imposed. China refused to bend to Trump's imposition of a 145% tariff hike. Instead, it imposed its own levy of 125%. Following negotiations between the two countries in Geneva, Switzerland, there was an agreement that the US tariffs on China would drop to 30% and China's on the US to 10%. SA lacks economic strength to confront US tariffs like China – experts South African political analysts have different views, with one saying the country could not afford to do the same as China and embark on a tit-for-tat tariff battle with Washington because South Africa is no longer an economically or politically powerful force in Africa. Instead, it has declined on all fronts. International relations expert Jan Venter from North-West University suggested that instead of trying to emulate powerful China by imposing a reciprocal trade levy on US goods, South Africa should align itself with President Donald Trump. He advocated for convincing Trump that the country could do something to please him. ALSO READ: US and China agree to slash tariffs in trade war de-escalation South Africa had little to bargain with, he said, as its economic power has declined over the years. 'We have made a living of formulating an international relations environment where we have the best of the West – America and Europe – and the best of China and Russia,' Venter said. 'America wants us to come over to its side and we really have nothing except if we convince America that this country is open for business. We have to tell America that we are going to rebuild infrastructure and we are going to give them value for money. Pursue strategic diplomacy 'The best way would be to engage with America, find out what it is they want and give them an idea that we are going to agree to some of their demands.' He said a positive attitude towards the US would help to restart the 'money line' from the US, which would ensure the reinstatement of aid focusing on HIVAids and medical research. 'The sooner we get that money back, the sooner people will reap the benefits again.' ALSO READ: Trump announces first post-tariff trade deal with UK He said South Africa had no muscles to flex because it was not even a regional superpower any more. 'We have no military, the police and so on are corrupt and our infrastructure is declining at a rapid rate. South Africa isn't powerful; it does not have cards to play and all hope is on positive diplomacy,' Venter said. Another analyst, Sandile Swana, said China was able to resist Trump's aggressive approach because it did not really depend on the US for trade. China has good grounds to stand up to US As China had grown so rapidly economically and in terms of technological advances, it was in a better position to dictate terms and direction and set international standards in those areas in future. 'So, China has good grounds to stand up against the US and it was morally necessary for them to do that. 'Their culture does not permit them to be cowards. So they've done well and I think they are still going to do better. This is just the start,' Swana said. ALSO READ: Trump tariff threat could cripple African film and TV industry South Africa also had some economic grounds to resist US trade tariffs and the withdrawal of aid. 'South Africa has no basis to worry about the US, the amount of trade under Agoa is negligible and the US is not our No 1 trading partner,' Swana said. SA exports to the US relied mainly on US and European companies based in South Africa and the white farmers who were all 'Trump's stakeholders', but not the black majority who did not export anything to the US, he said. Ramaphosa doesn't have to compromise 'Ramaphosa doesn't have to compromise anything with the US. The US can be free to do deals with the white population and American companies based here,' he said. Trump's tariffs policies and sanctions have been opposed domestically, including by US chief executives and top investment and finance houses. 'They are not convinced that it's a correct strategy for the US to continue to involve itself in such an endeavour. So that's a problem Trump has to face, relative to the tariffs,' Swana said. NOW READ: Trump-Ramaphosa meeting seen as key to easing tensions

Fuel price decrease brings relief to South African households and businesses
Fuel price decrease brings relief to South African households and businesses

IOL News

time08-05-2025

  • Business
  • IOL News

Fuel price decrease brings relief to South African households and businesses

The agriculture sector, economists, and workers' trade unions have responded well following the news of a decrease in the petrol price which came into effect on Wednesday. The agriculture sector, alongside economists and trade unions, have expressed optimism following the recent announcement of a fuel price decrease in South Africa. Minister of Minerals and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe, revealed on Friday that the reductions apply to all grades of petrol and diesel, with petrol prices seeing a reduction of 22 cents per litre and diesel dropping by as much as 42 cents per litre. An economics professor at the North-West University, Waldo Krugell, said even modest reductions in fuel prices can lighten household budgets. 'In the macro picture, it also helps to keep the average inflation rate low. It is good news for households and businesses,' Krugell said. 'In addition, we were worried about the impact of the VAT rate increase, but that is now off the table. With these positives, consumption spending may still make a significant contribution to driving economic growth this year.' Abigail Moyo, spokesperson of the trade union UASA, said that the decrease in fuel prices was excellent news for motorists, commuters, and businesses, especially those in agriculture. 'Lower fuel prices provide financial relief to South Africans and substantially impact inflation, which affects the overall cost of living.' Moyo added that for the agriculture sector, the lower cost will help reduce production costs during increased fuel demand due to the summer crop harvest and the planting of winter crops. 'Fuel accounts for nearly 13% of input costs in grain production. UASA is pleased that this decrease in fuel prices will help contain food inflation and overall headline inflation, providing the South African Reserve Bank with the opportunity to lower or maintain interest rates at beneficial levels for consumers.' Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) spokesperson Matthew Parks said the fuel price decrease will provide relief for millions of workers and commuters struggling to cope with the rising costs of living. 'Whilst appreciating this relief, it's critical that the government returns to engagements at Nedlac on further measures to reduce the costs of fuel,' he said. Parks added that it's equally critical that measures to support Eskom to provide affordable electricity be expedited and similarly measures to ensure Transnet and Metrorail return to full productivity to help shield food and passenger rail from inflation. Mervyn Abrahams, co-ordinator for the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity (PMBEJD), said that petrol was one of the important components in the food ecosystem because it ensured the movement of goods from the production point to the consumption point, with other factors also coming into play. 'Our household affordability index has shown that food prices continued to climb in April. While this fuel price drop is the fourth one in the year, this does not seem to have filtered through to consumers. We would like to see consumers benefiting from the fuel drop.' Abrahams added that there should not be a compromise on food and access to food because of fuel prices. Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), said that the easing of the fuel price came at a critical time for South Africa's agriculture. 'Fuel consumption generally occurs throughout the year, but harvesting is one of the highest usage periods. We are harvesting grains, oilseeds, and citrus. The underpinning driver of the decline in fuel prices is the decrease in Brent crude oil prices, which are influenced by increased oil output in major producers, among other factors,' he said. BUSINESS REPORT

Top 10 stories of the day: Five arrested in Aserie Ndlovu case
Top 10 stories of the day: Five arrested in Aserie Ndlovu case

The Citizen

time07-05-2025

  • Politics
  • The Citizen

Top 10 stories of the day: Five arrested in Aserie Ndlovu case

Here's your daily news update for Wednesday, 7 May 2025: An easy-to-read selection of our top stories. In the news today, police say five suspects have now been arrested in connection with the disappearance of journalist Aserie Ndlovu and his partner, Zodwa Mdhluli, including someone known to his family. Meanwhile, British authorities have denied EFF leader Julius Malema a visa to the United Kingdom, just hours before he was to depart South Africa for the Cambridge Conference. Furthermore, the family of a 20-year-old North-West University student who died after breaking his neck during a rugby match is accusing the coaching staff of being responsible for the death. Weather tomorrow: 8 May 2025 Fine and warm weather is expected across most provinces, while coastal regions brace for weekend wind and wave warnings. Full weather forecast here. Stay up to date with The Citizen – More News, Your Way. Key witness now a suspect as fifth arrest made in missing journalist Aserie Ndlovu case National Police Commissioner Fannie Masemola says five suspects have now been arrested in connection with the disappearance of journalist Aserie Ndlovu and his partner, Zodwa Mdhluli. The couple vanished under mysterious circumstances more than two months ago. National Police Commissioner General Fannie Masemola. Picture: Gallo Images/Laird Forbes It has also come to light that the first suspect arrested in the case, Samuel Mogongwe, was the last person seen with Ndlovu and Mdhluli before their disappearance. According to Mdhluli's son, Treasure, the 41-year-old man is well known to the victims and their families. CONTINUE READING: Key witness now a suspect as fifth arrest made in missing journalist Aserie Ndlovu case Malema denied UK visa British authorities have denied EFF leader Julius Malema a visa to the United Kingdom (UK), just hours before he was to depart South Africa for the Cambridge Conference. The conference is expected to take place this weekend in London. EFF leader Julius Malema during a media brief at the Nasrec Expo Centre in Johannesburg. Picture: X/Economic Freedom Fighters In a post on X, Malema claims that authorities provided 'no substantial justification' for denying him the visa. 'It is clear to me that this is an attempt to silence a dissenting political perspective. We are currently at the OR airport, as we were promised that everything would be sorted by 15:30. Instead, we received a regret letter just four hours before our departure. This is unacceptable and spineless.' CONTINUE READING: Malema denied UK visa Family blames coaches for NWU student rugby death The family of a 20-year-old North-West University (NWU) student who died after breaking his neck during a rugby match is accusing the coaching staff of being responsible for the death. This is because the player was reportedly forced to play in a scrum position without proper training. Student Vilano Saunders broke his neck in a scrum. Picture: Supplied Vilano Saunders, a second-year student at the NWU Vanderbijlpark campus, broke his neck in a match at the campus sports field. He was admitted to the Midvaal Private Hospital and on Monday died as a result of the injury. Blitzboks win Sevens World Championship in Los Angeles Former chief justice Raymond Zondo has questioned former president Jacob Zuma's release from prison on medical parole after defying a Constitutional Court order in 2021. Zondo delivered the keynote address on Tuesday, the second day of the 15th Commonwealth Regional Conference for heads of Anti-Corruption Agencies in Africa. Former Chief Justice Raymond Zondo. Photo: Gallo Images/Veli Nhlapo Zuma, who was sentenced to 15 months in July 2021 for defying a Constitutional Court order to appear at the Zondo Commission of Inquiry into allegations of state capture, was released on medical parole in September 2021 by former correctional services commissioner Arthur Fraser. The former president served just two months of the sentence. CONTINUE READING: WATCH: Zondo questions Zuma's release from prison on medical parole Stars shine for Darren Scott: A benefit concert to honour South Africa's beloved broadcaster After decades behind the mic, legendary South African broadcaster Darren Scott is now in the fight of his life, and he's not doing it alone. Recently returning to South Africa while battling a vicious bout of skin cancer, Darren's voice may be quieter for now, but the country he entertained for years is raising its own in support. Darren Scott on Jacaranda 94.2. 26 January 2011. Picture: Gallo Images/Foto24/Brendan Croft Friends, fans, and fellow entertainers have come together to throw a heartfelt lifeline: a special benefit concert to raise funds for his ongoing treatment. Set for Wednesday, 14 May at The Venue, Melrose Arc, the Benefit for Darren promises to be a night of music, comedy, and community spirit. CONTINUE READING: Stars shine for Darren Scott: A benefit concert to honour South Africa's beloved broadcaster Here are five more stories of the day: Yesterday's News recap READ HERE: Top 10 stories of the day: Citizenship Act clause 'unlawful' | 'Explain NHI signing' | Chicken prices might increase

Investigation under way into death of NWU student from rugby injury
Investigation under way into death of NWU student from rugby injury

TimesLIVE

time07-05-2025

  • Sport
  • TimesLIVE

Investigation under way into death of NWU student from rugby injury

North-West University (NWU) says an investigation has been launched into the death of 20-year-old student and rugby player Vilano Saunders. 'The Falcons Rugby Union, which governs the local rugby league, has initiated its own investigation to examine the specifics of the incident and assess whether any safety protocols or guidelines were breached during the game,' said spokesperson Louis Jacobs. This comes after Saunders died on Monday, after sustaining a serious neck injury during a rugby match on Saturday afternoon. Saunders was injured early in the match and immediately rushed to Midvaal Hospital, where doctors confirmed the seriousness of his condition. He was later transferred to Sebokeng Hospital for further treatment. Despite being placed in traction, he died on Monday while awaiting spinal surgery. At the time of his death, Saunders had no feeling or movement below his neck and was classified as a quadriplegic. Doctors had not yet determined whether he would regain any sensation or mobility. Before his death Saunders' girlfriend Caitlin Venter started a Back-a-Buddy campaign to cover his medical expenses and rehabilitation. The campaign, which aimed to raise R2m, garnered significant support from 79 unique donors, raising more than R65,000 to assist with his care.

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