Latest news with #OxfordEconomics
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Job openings slide in June as hiring rate hits 7-month low
Job openings declined in June while hiring also decreased, according to government data released Tuesday. The report comes as investors closely watch for any signs of slowing in the labor market amid a debate over when the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again. New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.44 million jobs open at the end of June, a decrease from the 7.71 million seen the month prior. May's report had shown the highest number of job openings since November 2024. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed that 5.2 million hires were made in June, down from the 5.47 million made during May. The hiring rate ticked lower to 3.3% from the 3.4% seen the month prior and stood at its lowest level since November 2024. In one sign that workers remain cautious about labor market conditions, the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, hovered at 2%. Both the hiring and quits rates are hovering near decade lows, reflecting what economists have described as a labor market in "stasis." "The June JOLTS report painted a familiar picture of the labor market: hiring remains quite low, but so do layoffs," Oxford Economics lead US economist Nancy Vanden Houten wrote in a research note following the release. "This will allow the Federal Reserve to keep policy steady as it waits for a clearer picture of how tariffs will impact inflation and growth." While the unemployment rate recently declined to 4.1% from 4.3% in June, Tuesday's JOLTS report falls in line with a wide swath of recent labor market data that has shown signs of cooling in the labor market. ADP data showed private employers unexpectedly cut 33,000 jobs in June. This marked the first month of job losses in the private sector since March 2023. Meanwhile, continuing weekly filings for unemployment benefits have hovered near their highest level in more than three years. Also released on Tuesday, the Conference Board's latest consumer confidence survey showed Americans' labor market outlook continues to soften. Notably, Americans' appraisal of current job availability weakened for the seventh consecutive month, reaching its lowest point since March 2021. In July, 18.9% of consumers reported that jobs were hard to get, up from 14.5% in January, per the release. Tuesday's data kicks off a busy week of economic data, which will end with the release of the July jobs report on Friday. Economists expect 101,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added to the US economy, with the unemployment rate inching higher to 4.2%, according to data from Bloomberg. In June, the US economy added 144,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Daily Tribune
14 hours ago
- Business
- Daily Tribune
US Fed poised to hold off on rate cuts, defying Trump pressure
The US central bank is widely expected to hold off slashing interest rates again at its upcoming meeting, as officials gather under the cloud of an intensifying pressure campaign by President Donald Trump. Policymakers at the independent Federal Reserve have kept the benchmark lending rate steady since the start of the year as they monitor how Trump's sweeping tariffs are impacting the world's biggest economy. With Trump's on-again, offagain tariff approach -- and the levies' lagged effects on inflation -- Fed officials want to see economic data from this summer to gauge how prices are being affected. When mulling changes to interest rates, the central bank -- which meets on Tuesday and Wednesday -- seeks a balance between reining in inflation and the health of the jobs market. But the bank's data-dependent approach has enraged the Republican president, who has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not slashing rates further, calling him a 'numbskull' and 'moron.' Most recently, Trump signaled he could use the Fed's $2.5 billion renovation project as an avenue to oust Powell, before backing off and saying that would be unlikely. Trump visited the Fed construction site on Thursday, making a tense appearance with Powell in which the Fed chair disputed Trump's characterization of the total cost of the refurbishment in front of the cameras. But economists expect the Fed to look past the political pressure at its policy meeting. 'We're just now beginning to see the evidence of tariffs' impact on inflation,' said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. 'We're going to see it (too) in July and August, and we think that's going to give the Fed reason to remain on the sidelines,' he told AFP. 'Trial balloon' Since returning to the presidency in January, Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on goods from almost all countries, as well as steeper rates on steel, aluminum and autos. The effect on inflation has so far been limited, prompting the US leader to use this as grounds for calling for interest rates to be lowered by three percentage points. Currently, the benchmark lending rate stands at a range between 4.25% and 4.50%. Trump also argues that lower rates would save the government money on interest payments, and floated the idea of firing Powell. The comments roiled financial markets. 'Powell can see that the administration floated this trial balloon' of ousting him before walking it back on the market's reaction, Sweet said. 'It showed that markets value an independent central bank,' the Oxford Economics analyst added, anticipating Powell will be instead more influenced by labor market concerns. Powell's term as Fed chair ends in May 2026. Jobs market 'fissures' Analysts expect to see a couple of members break ranks if the Fed's rate-setting committee decides for a fifth straight meeting to keep interest rates unchanged. Sweet cautioned that some observers may spin dissents as pushback on Powell but argued this is not necessarily the case. 'It's not out-of-line or unusual to see, at times when there's a high degree of uncertainty, or maybe a turning point in policy, that you get one or two people dissenting,' said Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman have both signaled openness to rate cuts as early as July, meaning their disagreement with a decision to hold rates steady would not surprise markets. Bostjancic said that too many dissents could be 'eyebrow-raising,' and lead some to question if Powell is losing control of the board, but added: 'I don't anticipate that to be the case.' For Sweet, 'the big wild card is the labor market.' There has been weakness in the private sector, while the hiring rate has been below average and the number of permanent job losers is rising. 'There are some fissures in the labor market, but they haven't turned into fault lines yet,' Sweet said. If the labor market suddenly weakened, he said he would expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates sooner.
Russia Today
a day ago
- Business
- Russia Today
Trump's tariffs to cost global economy $2 trn
The global fallout from US President Donald Trump's tariffs is set to wipe out $2 trillion from the world's economy by 2027 as a result of trade and investment disruptions, Bloomberg reported on Monday. Since returning to office in January, Trump has embarked on a tariff campaign aimed at protecting US manufacturers and overturning trade deficits. In April, he introduced a blanket 10% tariff on all imports and higher tariffs on specific countries deemed to have unfair trade practices. Some tariffs were paused for trade negotiations but are set to take effect on August 1. The overall level of US tariffs is now the highest since the 1930s, about six times what it was when Trump took office, according to Bloomberg. The policy is already causing companies to freeze capital spending, reroute supply chains, and trim margins to absorb rising costs, the outlet claims. 'The hit to the world economy will reach $2 trillion by the end of 2027 relative to its pre-trade war path,' the article says. Worldwide, foreign direct investment, considered key for long-term economic growth, is headed for another decline this year, adding to an 11% drop in 2024, according to a recent UN report. The tariff negotiations are 'bad for investment,' said Daniel Harenberg, lead economist with Oxford Economics, calling them 'a tax that puts sand in the wheels of supply chains and global trade.' The US has so far announced preliminary agreements with the EU, Japan, Vietnam, and the UK, and declared a truce with China after previous tariffs triggered a trade war that shook global markets. With the tariff deadline approaching, US officials will meet with Chinese representatives this week. Other major deals, such as with Canada, Mexico, India, and South Korea, are still pending. The IMF and OECD have both downgraded global growth forecasts, citing disruptions from tariffs.
TECHx
a day ago
- Business
- TECHx
ServiceNow Reveals Drop in AI Maturity Across EMEA
Home » Tech Value Chain » Global Brands » ServiceNow Reveals Drop in AI Maturity Across EMEA ServiceNow, the AI platform for business transformation, has released its latest Enterprise AI Maturity Index in partnership with Oxford Economics. The report revealed a surprising trend across Europe and the Middle East. Despite growing AI investment, the region's average AI maturity score dropped by 10 points year over year. Enterprises are struggling to keep up with rapid innovation. Many are finding it difficult to turn AI ambitions into scalable, effective solutions. The index evaluates five components: leadership and strategy, workflows, talent, governance, and investment. Together, these factors provide a full picture of an organisation's readiness to scale AI. Now in its second year, the global report includes insights from nearly 4,500 respondents worldwide. Of those, 1,950 were from nine EMEA markets, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia. ServiceNow reported that agentic AI is driving experimentation in the region. However, the pace of innovation is outpacing organisations' ability to implement AI in a structured, governed way. As a result, the region's average AI maturity score fell from 44 to 34 out of 100. Cathy Mauzaize, President, EMEA at ServiceNow, stated that although organisations are accelerating AI projects, most are still in the early stages. She emphasised the need for proper foundations, skills, and data strategies to succeed. IDC forecasts that European spending on AI will reach $144.6 billion by 2028. The potential is significant, but execution remains key. The report outlines three trends shaping AI progress in the region: Organisations are deploying more AI use cases. Nearly 47% in Europe and the Middle East reported launching over 100 use cases in the past year. Nearly 47% in Europe and the Middle East reported launching over 100 use cases in the past year. Agentic AI adoption is growing. While only 15% currently use it, 42% plan to implement it in the next year. While only 15% currently use it, 42% plan to implement it in the next year. Governance remains a critical gap. Data security is the top barrier to AI value in the UAE. ServiceNow highlighted that governance must be embedded from the beginning. Policies, oversight, and accountability should guide the deployment of technologies like agentic AI. In the UAE, the AI maturity score is 35, the highest in the region alongside the UK. However, only 9% of organisations have reached the most advanced stage of AI maturity. ServiceNow concluded that for AI to scale effectively and safely, strategic governance and skilled talent are essential.
Channel Post MEA
a day ago
- Business
- Channel Post MEA
AI Maturity Declines In The Middle East
ServiceNow has released its latest Enterprise AI Maturity Index in partnership with Oxford Economics. The findings reveal a surprising trend in Europe and the Middle East: although AI investment continues to grow, the average AI maturity score across the region has dropped by 10 points year over year. As enterprises struggle to keep pace with rapid innovation, many are finding it difficult to translate AI ambition into scalable, effective execution. The index examines five key components: leadership and strategy, workflows, talent, governance, and investment. Together they provide a comprehensive view of how prepared organisations are to scale AI successfully; their AI maturity level. Now in its second year, the global report draws on insights from almost 4,500 respondents globally, including 1,950 across nine markets in Europe and the Middle East including the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. It shows that emerging technologies such as agentic AI are fuelling experimentation and delivering early returns across the region. However, the pace of change is moving faster than organisations' ability to scale AI in a structured, governed way. To this end, the region's average AI maturity score has dropped 10 points year on year, from 44 to just 34 out of 100. Cathy Mauzaize, President, EMEA at ServiceNow, says 'Organisations across Europe and the Middle East are accelerating their AI projects, but many are still in the early stages of their journey. They recognise the potential and now is the time to build on that energy. To keep moving forward, organisations are exploring how to lay the right foundations to make the data work for them, and give their people the skills to use AI with confidence. According to IDC, European spending on artificial intelligence will reach $144.6 billion in 2028[1]. The opportunity is huge, but only if we focus on getting the basics right today.' The report also outlines three major trends shaping the region's AI journey and what's needed to turn early success into lasting transformation. AI is outpacing organisations' capacity to harness it There is a clear appetite for innovation, with nearly half (47%) of organisations in Europe and the Middle East launching more than 100 AI use cases in the past year. UAE-based organisations are showing similar AI activity (49%), reflecting growing interest in large-scale experimentation. Still, most remain in the early stages of implementation, as reflected in this year's overall European AI maturity score of just 34. The majority of the region's organisations are focused on experimentation and expansion, with only 6% reaching the augmentation stage, which is the most advanced stage identified in the survey. In the UAE, the AI maturity score stands at 35 — which is the highest in Europe and the Middle East, tied with the UK — with 9% of organisations progressing to the most advanced stage. Agentic AI presents a clear opportunity Agentic AI, the AI that can act autonomously, is positioned to reshape enterprise automation. However, awareness varies widely across the region. While 15% of organisations in Europe and the Middle East are already using agentic AI and 42% plan to implement it within 12 months, familiarity is still in its early days. Only one in five organisations are very family with agentic AI, revealing a significant knowledge gap. The opportunity is clear, with over half of early adopters in Europe reporting improved gross margins (58%), greater efficiency and productivity (59%), and better experiences (60%). Governance is the missing link Rising adoption brings rising risk. AI at scale introduces serious challenges around cybersecurity, privacy, and regulatory compliance. And while the number of UAE organisations that have made significant strides in AI data governance rose slightly from 42% in 2024 to 45% in 2025, there is a need for a greater focus on managing AI risk effectively. This is particularly true given that data security is cited by UAE organisations as the top barrier to realizing AI value. To scale AI safely and effectively, governance must be foundational — not an afterthought. That means embedding policy, oversight, and accountability into platforms from the outset and approaching new technologies like agentic AI with a clear strategy in place.
