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Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
The labor market is worse than than it appears: Chart of the Week
A string of jobs reports has told a similar story for months now, if you look at the headline numbers. It's a simple narrative: The labor market has cooled significantly over the past several years, but remains overall resilient from a broader slowdown. By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy Next week, the May jobs report is expected to bring more of the same headlines, as it's anticipated to show the US labor market added 130,000 jobs with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. More resiliency. But the story of job hunting in America has been far more bifurcated, masked by these broad figures. Behind the solid headline numbers is a hiring rate hovering near a decade low. So too is the rate at which Americans are quitting their jobs. As Fed Chair Jerome Powell put it on Jan 29, "It's a low hiring environment. So if you have a job, it's all good. But if you have to find a job, [the] hiring rates have come down." It's yet another tale of two economies, and one that's hammering a specific group: recent college grads. With the labor market stuck in neutral, the millions of students who walked off the campus quad for the final time this month are facing a challenging situation. The three-month moving average of the unemployment rate for recent graduates aged 22 to 27 currently sits at roughly 5.3%, well above the national average of 4.2%, per Oxford Economics. As our Chart of the Week shows, this is a historic anomaly. "It's a first sign of hitting a point where the labor market is at kind of a breaking point," Indeed economist Cory Stahle told Yahoo Finance. "Things overall are still solid, but the fact that we're seeing pockets like these younger workers starting to get hit harder is clearly very concerning." The story of these workers, why they aren't finding jobs, and whether or not they eventually will is at the crux of the current US labor market conundrum. "Right now, we're on a trend where we're facing a lot of headwinds," Stahle said. "The labor market is strong, but my prediction right now is some of these headwinds are going to start catching up to us." Big Tech's "efficiency" push has been a key driver of the recent graduate job-hunting slump. Recent research from Apollo Global Management's chief economist Torsten Sløk shows that employment in the Magnificent Seven tech cohort had increased at 13% or higher from 2011 to 2021. In the past three years, employment gains for the group were only around 3% in any given year. And these are the big, wealthy companies that are still growing and driving S&P 500 earnings. (Disclosure: Yahoo Finance is owned by Apollo Global Management.) This means fewer tech job openings for a generation of college students who have been increasingly majoring in areas like computer science. Job postings on Indeed's platform for software development jobs are down about 40% from February 2020, per Stahle. A far cry from the "learn to code" era. Add in that the broader labor market had already been cooling, many expect President Trump's tariffs to weigh on economic growth, and artificial intelligence is beginning to fill entry-level positions, and Oxford Economics US senior economist Matthew Martin described a "perfect storm" that's keeping college grads on the labor market sidelines. "There's just such a smaller pool of jobs to actually compete for, which means a lot of these recent grads are unfortunately staying unemployed as soon as they enter the labor force," Martin told Yahoo Finance. Martin added that the data isn't large enough to ominously change his economic forecast. But it is one of the dynamics under the surface that has economists predicting the likely path for the unemployment rate from here isn't lower. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
College grads hit a wall: Tech jobs dry up amid AI boom
Recent graduates are having a harder time landing jobs, with their unemployment rate now above the national average. Yahoo Finance Markets Reporter Josh Schafer joins Market Domination Overtime to explain how a slowdown in tech hiring and rising use of artificial intelligence (AI) are reshaping the entry-level job market. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here. Recent college grads are finding it increasingly difficult to find jobs, and the gap between them and the national average is growing. Joining us now for more is Yahoo Finance market reporter, Josh Schafer. Hey Josh, yes, so we talk a lot about the unemployment rate in America being relatively low. So the unemployment rate that we're looking at on our screen here is in green. It is 4.2%. If you look over time, that is a historically low unemployment rate. But when we zoom into this chart that we're looking at here, we're seeing an interesting trend on who is having a hard time finding a job. So in our white line, we have recent college graduates. Recent college graduates constitute, uh, individuals that are 22 to 27 that just got a degree. Notice the white line typically goes underneath that green line on your screen. So typically it's moving lower. Normally those folks are having an easier time finding a job. But when you zoom in to what's happening right now, you'll see that college graduates are actually having a harder time finding a job than the national average. Two key things to point out with this data. So the folks over at Oxford Economics told me one of the big things we're seeing is AI is definitely playing a little bit of a role here. So AI could be taking in entry-level analyst jobs, entry-level jobs in tech. There's less jobs for these newcomers coming into the job market. Another key piece of this chart in 2022 is when we saw this shift. A lot of college graduates have been going to get a science degrees over the last couple years, right? They've been going into tech. Well, now what's happened since 2022, we've had that year of efficiency from meta and really across tech. There's less jobs in tech now than there used to be. The folks over at indeed told me they've seen a 40% drop in job postings for computer software jobs compared to 2020. So again, there's simply less jobs for people coming into tech right now. So graduates are graduating, they're looking for jobs, they're looking for jobs and they're continuing to not find them as quickly as they used to. So Josh, part of this, it sounds like is, is the jobs that they're targeting, you're saying? Yes, definitely. It's definitely something that we're seeing specifically in tech, and then when you look at how many college graduates are getting a degree in something like information technology, something like computer science. We had sort of skewed because of this big tech boom over the last 20 years, everyone wants to go get into tech, right? Go learn to code now. Well, that's been a shift because some of those jobs are simply being taken, like I said, by AI, or are now being not offered anymore because these companies are trying to slim down. So it's specifically right now seems to be perhaps a tech sector focus. But economists did tell me that this is one reason that the overall unemployment rate is not expected to be falling anytime soon. All right, thank you, Josh. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Travel Daily News
2 days ago
- Business
- Travel Daily News
WTTC: Spain 's tourism sector could exceed 260bn euros by 2025
In 2024, the sector in Spain achieved its best result since 2019, with a contribution of almost 249bn. euros to GDP International tourism spending grew by nearly 11% year-on-year MADRID, SPAIN – The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) forecasts that by 2025 the travel and tourism sector in Spain could reach a new all-time high, with an estimated contribution of 260.5 billion euros to GDP, equivalent to almost 16% of the national economy. According to the latest Economic Impact Research (EIR), prepared by WTTC in collaboration with Oxford Economics, these forecasts reinforce the role of tourism as one of the country's main economic drivers, with an estimated year-on-year increase of 4.7%. WTTC projects that by the end of 2025 the sector will account for 3.2 million jobs in Spain, equivalent to 14.4% of total employment. By 2025, spending by international tourists is expected to reach 113.2 billion euros, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, while domestic spending could reach 84.9 billion euros, 2.4% more than the previous year. Julia Simpson, President and CEO of WTTC, said: 'Spain remains a true global tourism powerhouse. The data reflects a dynamic, resilient and constantly evolving sector, which not only drives economic growth, but also creates quality jobs and promotes regional development. The forecasts for 2025 are very positive, and with a firm commitment to sustainability and innovation, Spain is well positioned to lead the future of global tourism, even in a challenging international environment.' A look back to 2024 During 2024, the Spanish tourism sector experienced its best year since 2019. Its contribution to GDP rose by almost 8% to €248.7 billion, or 15.6% of the economy. It also employed 3 million people, nearly 14% of the country's total jobs. Spending by international tourists was 107.1 billion euros (up 10.9% year-on-year), while domestic spending reached 82.9 billion, up 2.2% on 2023. These segments accounted for 56.4% and 43.6% of total expenditure, respectively. Leisure travel accounted for 88.3% of total expenditure, compared to 11.7% for business travel expenditure. The main source countries for arrivals into Spain in 2024 were the United Kingdom (20%), France (14%) and Germany (13%). The destinations most visited by Spaniards were France (25%), Italy (14%), the United Kingdom (8%) and Portugal (8%). The next decade Looking ahead to 2035, the WTTC projects that the tourism sector could contribute €315.7 billion to the GDP, which would represent more than 17% of the Spanish economy, as well as 4 million jobs, 700,000 more than at present. Regional data: European Union In 2024, the EU travel and tourism sector contributed almost 1.8 trillion euros to the region's GDP, or more than 10% of its economy. This figure exceeded 2019 levels by almost 6%. Employment associated with the sector grew by 4.7%, year-on-year, to 24.6 million jobs, accounting for one in nine jobs across the region. Domestic travel spending in the EU reached 1 trillion euros, while spending by international visitors reached 515 billion euros. By 2025, WTTC forecasts that the regional sector will reach almost 1.9 trillion euros, representing 10.5% of the EU economy. Employment linked to the sector is estimated to total 25.7 million people, or 12% of the regional total. In addition, the agency expects international spending to grow by more than 11% to 573 billion euros, and domestic spending to increase by 1.6% to more than 1.1 trillion euros.
Hospitality Net
2 days ago
- Business
- Hospitality Net
Spain's Tourism Sector Could Exceed €260 Billion by 2025, According to WTTC
In 2024, the sector achieved its best result since 2019, with a contribution of almost €249 billion to GDP International tourism spending grew by nearly 11% year-on-year Madrid, Spain - The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) forecasts that by 2025 the travel and tourism sector in Spain could reach a new all-time high, with an estimated contribution of €260.5 billion to GDP, equivalent to almost 16% of the national economy. According to the latest Economic Impact Research (EIR), prepared by WTTC in collaboration with Oxford Economics, these forecasts reinforce the role of tourism as one of the country's main economic drivers, with an estimated year-on-year increase of 4.7%. WTTC projects that by the end of 2025 the sector will account for 3.2 million jobs in Spain, equivalent to 14.4% of total employment. By 2025, spending by international tourists is expected to reach €113.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, while domestic spending could reach 84.9 billion euros, 2.4% more than the previous year. Spain remains a true global tourism powerhouse. The data reflects a dynamic, resilient and constantly evolving sector, which not only drives economic growth, but also creates quality jobs and promotes regional development. The forecasts for 2025 are very positive, and with a firm commitment to sustainability and innovation, Spain is well positioned to lead the future of global tourism, even in a challenging international environment. Julia Simpson, President and CEO of WTTC A look back to 2024 During 2024, the Spanish tourism sector experienced its best year since 2019. Its contribution to GDP rose by almost 8% to €248.7 billion, or 15.6% of the economy. It also employed 3 million people, nearly 14% of the country's total jobs. Spending by international tourists was €107.1 billion (up 10.9% year-on-year), while domestic spending reached 82.9 billion, up 2.2% on 2023. These segments accounted for 56.4% and 43.6% of total expenditure, respectively. Leisure travel accounted for 88.3% of total expenditure, compared to 11.7% for business travel expenditure. The main source countries for arrivals into Spain in 2024 were the United Kingdom (20%), France (14%) and Germany (13%). The destinations most visited by Spaniards were France (25%), Italy (14%), the United Kingdom (8%) and Portugal (8%). The next decade Looking ahead to 2035, the WTTC projects that the tourism sector could contribute €315.7 billion to the GDP, which would represent more than 17% of the Spanish economy, as well as 4 million jobs, 700,000 more than at present. Regional data: European Union In 2024, the EU travel and tourism sector contributed almost €1.8 trillion to the region's GDP, or more than 10% of its economy. This figure exceeded 2019 levels by almost 6%. Employment associated with the sector grew by 4.7%, year-on-year, to 24.6 million jobs, accounting for one in nine jobs across the region. Domestic travel spending in the EU reached €1 trillion, while spending by international visitors reached €515 billion. By 2025, WTTC forecasts that the regional sector will reach almost €1.9 trillion, representing 10.5% of the EU economy. Employment linked to the sector is estimated to total 25.7 million people, or 12% of the regional total. In addition, the agency expects international spending to grow by more than 11% to €573 billion, and domestic spending to increase by 1.6% to more than €1.1 trillion. For more information and to access the full factsheet, please visit WTTC's Research Hub. About WTTC The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) represents the global travel & tourism private sector. Members include 200 CEOs, Chairs and Presidents of the world's leading travel & tourism companies from all geographies covering all industries. For more than 30 years, WTTC has been committed to raising the awareness of governments and the public of the economic and social significance of the travel & tourism sector. WTTC Press Office WTTC View source
NDTV
2 days ago
- Business
- NDTV
New York, London, Paris: List Of Top Cities On Global Index 2025
New York and London remain the top two cities in the world for the second year running on the Global Cities Index 2025. Oxford Economics, the leading global economic advisory firm, assessed 1,000 cities on the basis of human capital, quality of life, environment, economics, and governance. They are scored on a scale of 100. The index retained eight cities from the last year, with Sydney and Boston being the new entrants in the top 10. According to Oxford Economics, New York and London are major centres for business, finance, and education. They have performed well in the areas of economy and human capital, scoring 100 and 98.5, respectively. New York has the biggest metro economy in the world, while London comes in fourth. Both cities are home to a large number of universities and corporate headquarters. The third spot was secured by Paris, with San Jose and Seattle making it to the top five for their high GDP per capita. These cities excel in quality of life. Paris ranks third for its cultural sites and high life expectancy; the other two cities have among the highest average incomes in the world, according to Oxford Economics. Paris has a score of 94.4, while San Jose and Seattle were at 94.2 and 91.8, respectively. Melbourne is in the sixth position with a score of 90.7, followed by Sydney at 90.6 and Boston, Tokyo, and San Francisco each at 90.3. Anthony Bernard Sasges, Senior Economist and lead author of the report, said, "The 2025 update of the index provides invaluable, data-driven insights for policymakers and business leaders, enabling them to unlock the potential of urban economies."
