Latest news with #PangaeaPolicy
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Late-night social media and surprise tariffs complicate Trump's two biggest trade talks
President Trump is complicating negotiations with China and the European Union, making two moves Wednesday to call out Chinese President Xi Jinping on social media and boost tariffs on steel and aluminum. Talks with China are on hold, waiting for a call between the two leaders, which the White House maintains will happen soon. But a 2:17 a.m. ET Truth Social missive from the president charged that dealing with Xi is "extremely hard." It was a message that immediately raised questions about the timing of a chat that Beijing says it's in no rush to have — and how much will be accomplished when it eventually takes place. There are parallels in the situation with the European Union, a bloc that is the top trading partner of the US. Trump offered his own surprise there last week with a plan to increase existing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50% from 25%. They went into effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday. It's a move that hits a variety of trading partners, with Europe in particular outraged by the move and promising additional countermeasures as the two sides meet for talks in Paris this week. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer traveled to Paris this week for a meeting with European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič. He described those talks in a statement Wednesday as "advancing quickly" and "very constructive" but appears set to be heading home with few concrete signs of a deal anytime soon. All in all, the developments this week across three continents are a sign that trade tensions could perhaps be in for a rise this summer after weeks of talk around the notion that markets may be calmed by a TACO ("Trump Always Chickens Out") trade. Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs As Terry Haines of Pangaea Policy put it in a recent note, "TACO is the latest triumph of misplaced markets... as quickly as TACO rose, events rose up to smite it." Days of promises for a call between Trump and Xi — who apparently have not spoken since before Trump's inauguration — have passed without a conversation even being scheduled. The frustration appeared to boil over for Trump overnight when he posted that "I like President XI of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!" It raised questions about the forthcoming call as well as the status of a trade truce between the US and China that was reached in May to delay tariffs by 115 percentage points for 90 days. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet That's a pact that has looked increasingly fragile, with both sides charging that the other is cheating in recent days and significant unresolved issues looming, from critical minerals to semiconductors. Trump and his team are charging that China has already violated the 90-day truce by not loosening trade restrictions for critical minerals, which are the building blocks in everything from computers to electric vehicle batteries to jet engines to medical devices. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has denied the claims and accused the US of its own actions to undermine the deal. For now, top Trump aides say their communication with the Chinese is on hold until the two leaders speak, but Beijing appears to be in no hurry to schedule the call. Chinese state media focused Wednesday on other trade talks with "true friends and good partners," such as a meeting Wednesday between Xi and the president of Belarus. Asked about a potential call with the US Tuesday, a spokesperson for China's Foreign Ministry offered only, "I have no information to share on that." The European talks this week also got underway with plenty of fanfare but appear to have ended with little clarity on how the array of issues on the table will be resolved. Greer's statement on Wednesday offered only that "I look forward to continued constructive engagement in the coming days and weeks." Negotiators are confronting issues on everything from Europe's value-added tax (VAT) to restrictions on US tech companies and agriculture purchases, in addition to the overall tariff issues. That's in addition to the new steel duties that went into effect Wednesday and doubled rate on the European Union, but with a last-minute exemption for the United Kingdom, where duties will remain at 25%. All in all, few see a path toward even a limited deal between the US and Europe before a deadline of July 8, when Trump is pledging to implement his delayed reciprocal tariffs, including promised 50% duties on the European Union. And Trump's two fronts — Europe and China — could even end up working against him, especially with Bloomberg reporting Wednesday that China is considering placing an order for hundreds of aircraft from the French-owned Airbus, perhaps tied to a visit next month of European leaders to Beijing. If that deal comes to pass, it could be a major blow to Trump — not to mention Boeing (BA). Meanwhile, the Trump administration continued to tout his tariff plans, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick boasting to the Senate during an appearance Wednesday that "the Trump administration is imposing tariffs and ending loopholes." Lutnick also offered a new nugget during his testimony Wednesday, saying new tariffs on airplane parts could be announced by the end of the month. "The key is to protect our industry," he said. Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance. Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
3 things investors need to watch to minimize risk in Trump 2.0
Investors have a lot to pay attention to this week, from fresh economic data showing slowing hirings, to President Trump saying talks with China are "extremely hard," all while the Senate considers Trump's controversial tax bill. Pangaea Policy founder Terry Haines joins Madison Mills and Brad Smith on Morning Brief to take a closer look at the top stories of the day and outline three things he thinks investors should be keeping an eye on: the tax and spending bill, weakening economic data, and the new steel and aluminum tariffs as part of Trump's push to protect the defense industrial base. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
08-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US-China trade talks will be more of a 'touch gloves moment'
President Trump announced a trade deal with the United Kingdom at a press conference held in the White House's Oval Office on Thursday. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be meeting with Chinese officials over the weekend to enter trade negotiations ahead of Trump's visit to the Middle East next week. Pangaea Policy Founder Terry Haines joins Yahoo Finance hosts Brad Smith and Madison Mills to elaborate more on the geopolitical and economic security assurances these trade talks represent. For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here. just want to continue where we left off and and get your reaction to what you're hearing from President Trump. And some of the companies that this also brings into the throws. Everything from aviation to to toys. Sure. Uh, good morning. And you had your priorities in order by cutting me off. So no worries. The, um, just a couple of things. One is that, you know, the for markets, the fact of the deal is the most important thing here. And I think you're seeing that in the markets reaction, generally speaking. Secondly, uh, you're seeing the, the confirmation of a mantra that Scott Besons been putting out there for some time now, that, you know, economic security is geopolitical security. Geopolitical security is economic security for the United States. You're seeing that as well. Um, you know, and and between that and the US-Ukraine deal, I think what you're seeing is a, a renewed commitment by the United States, uh, to the UK and Europe frankly. And, uh, you know, it'll be more difficult for the EU than it is for the United States for them to come up with a deal due to how, uh, how rickety that quasi federation is and being able to to do anything positive. Um, and finally, uh, it says good things about the, about the prospect for a China deal, uh, but markets are reading way too much into the China deal. This is going to be a process, going to take a very long time. Um, I think those tariffs are not coming down substantially for quite some time, unless they have a really good meeting in Switzerland this weekend, which I think is going to be much more of a touch gloves moment. Well, I want to get your reaction to the market action that we're seeing. Stocks nearing session highs here. You've got your NASDAQ up over 1.5% at the moment after the president said, you better go out and buy stocks now when speaking to investors. Terry, I know that you are not a Wall Street analyst, but if clients are calling you today to ask you if these policies mean they should be buying into a rally, what would you say? Well, I'm not, yeah, I'm not a fundamental analyst as you properly point out, Mandy. The uh, and don't want to be. Uh, but you know, the fundamental point is here is, you know, will the deal stick? Well, the things that the president said, uh, today, and I think the things that Lord Mandelson had to say, the UK ambassador also, are very important here because, uh, two things. One is I think that, I'm not going to endorse the president's statements, but I think you can count on the president's statements as being broadly true and representative of what this government intends to do. Uh, secondly, I want to point out something that Lord Mandelson said because I thought was very important, um, that they view this as a process, as a movie where, where tariffs continue to come down over time. Uh, that's something I have, uh, I have a point I have made to markets repeatedly over the past couple of months. And uh, and the president agreed with Lord Mandelson's point. Uh, so what you can expect from these continued negotiations, frankly, is the tariffs continue to come down. So there's a couple of broad positives there. Our business is able to continue to spend at the same propensity that they were prior to liberation day, prior to the likelihood of tariffs being put on the table. And then, of course, what they saw later on with, uh, pause for 90 days, are they able to continue to spend confidently in order to make sure that they're kind of upholding the, not just market, but economically they're continuing to employ, they're continuing to have their own larger purchase patterns, especially if they know that the consumer isn't entirely certain about the economic standing right now. Sure. Uh, the, you know, the direction of travel here is very good, firstly. Uh, secondly, uh, can they have more, more confidence today that in and how this, uh, the tariff matter and broader economic policies are going to get resolved by the United States government. They can. Uh, thirdly, you know, the uh, a lot of suspending guidance and the like has to do with, uh, has to do with companies lawyering up with potential litigation as much as anything else. Uh, so I think the conclusion that companies will, uh, will make is that, you know, if they've suspended guidance, for example, um, and outlook, that they probably ought to keep suspending a little bit longer. I mean, that's instinct on my part, backward experience more than anything else, but, um, it's that there will continue to be uncertainty. Uh, the uncertainty is probably peaked and is on its way down though. And Terry, I want to end with you in terms of my questions for you on China specifically. I know that you mentioned it a bit earlier, but just curious if investors can anticipate, and when can investors anticipate getting a headline rate number that is lower than the 145% tariff that's currently in place. Um, I think that's not likely to be anytime soon. Um, you know, I look at the Switzerland meetings this weekend as mostly touch gloves and, and, and not much more than that. Uh, the reason has a lot more to do with China's government than it does with the United States. What you're seeing from the United States government is, uh, you know, it's kind of improvisational. The ability to improvise and the ability to make decisions very quickly and move forward. Uh, that is not a characteristic of China's government, whether it be the structure or the individuals involved. Uh, number one. Number two, there's a situation here where, you know, the strategies and tactics that China's used with the West and the United States in particular for 20 years or more, uh, has been to basically wait everybody out, uh, snarl and growl when it's appropriate, be friendly when it's appropriate, but always to wait things out. Uh, that's been successful for them. It is going to take some time for them to reach a different conclusion. And this is not just about the economics, this is about geopolitics. This is about getting China to engage geopolitically to turn down the temperature with its client states and Russia and Iran, those proxies, uh, as well as kind of rationalize things in the South China Sea. That's not going to be a quick negotiation. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Bloomberg
21-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 21, 2025
- Cam Dawson, CIO at NewEdge Wealth - Terry Haines, founder at Pangaea Policy - Leland Miller, CEO at China Beige Book - Barbara Doran, CEO and CIO at BD8 Capital Partners Cam Dawson, CIO at NewEdge Wealth, joins for a discussion on her 2025 outlook and whether equities could rebound amid volatility in the first quarter of the year. Terry Haines, founder at Pangaea Policy, discusses President Trump's tariff policies and turmoil for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Defense Department. Leland Miller, CEO at China Beige Book, discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy in an intensifying trade war with the US. Barbara Doran, CEO and CIO at BD8 Capital Partners, discusses the outlook for markets amid comments from President Trump for a desired change at the Fed.
Bloomberg
15-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 15, 2025
- Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia - Priya Misra, Portfolio Manager at JPMorgan Asset Management - Terry Haines, founder at Pangaea Policy - Ken Leon, Director of Equity Research at CFRA Republican Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin sits down with Surveillance to discuss his policy initiatives for the state, how the Republican party is functioning in a second Trump term, and his response to the president's economic and political priorities. Priya Misra, Portfolio Manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, discusses signals from the bond market and whether there is broader concern of a rotation away from US assets. Terry Haines, founder at Pangaea Policy, discusses whether President Trump's tariff policy could change amid its 90-day pause. Ken Leon, Director of Equity Research at CFRA, reacts to today's bank earnings.
