Latest news with #ParasJasrai
Fibre2Fashion
27-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Ind-Ra lowers India's FY26 GDP forecast to 6.3% amid global headwinds
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has lowered its GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2026 (FY26) to 6.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY), down 30 basis points (bp) from its earlier estimate of 6.6 per cent issued in December 2024. The revision reflects the evolving macroeconomic landscape shaped by geopolitical shocks and uneven domestic momentum, with the economy navigating a mixed bag of headwinds and tailwinds. 'Major headwinds are: i) uncertain global scenario from the unilateral tariff hikes by the US for all countries and ii) weaker-than-expected investment climate. The major tailwinds are: i) monetary easing, ii) faster-than-expected inflation decline, and iii) likely above-normal rainfall in 2025,' said Dr. Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist and head – public finance at Ind-Ra. The downgrade also mirrors a bleak global environment: the IMF has trimmed its 2025 global GDP forecast to 2.8 per cent, while the World Bank projects an even lower 2.3 per cent expansion. Global trade volume is now expected to rise only 1.8 per cent in 2025, sharply below earlier forecasts and historical trends, the domestic rating agency noted. Retail inflation is expected to average just 3 per cent in FY26, down from 4.6 per cent in FY25 and well below the Reserve Bank of India's 4 per cent target. Food inflation turned negative in June 2025, contributing to the lowest CPI reading in over six years. With 100bp of rate cuts already delivered between February and June 2025, Ind-Ra sees room for an additional 50bp cut in the current easing cycle, possibly aided by CRR reductions. Commodity prices—both energy and non-energy—are expected to remain subdued in 2025 and into 2026-2027, limiting export momentum and further clouding India's external outlook. Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is projected to rise 6.9 per cent in FY26, sustaining its momentum from FY25 (7.2 per cent). The pick-up is attributed to easing inflation and improving real wages, although the growth remains tempered by a drop in household savings and increased personal loan obligations. The savings rate fell to 18.1 per cent in FY24 (from 20.1 per cent in FY22), while rising loan burdens have reduced disposable incomes. 'While low inflation augurs well for consumption demand, monetary easing is likely to ease pressure on loan repayments, and better monsoon is likely to translate into brighter agriculture prospects, thus supporting rural demand. However, the combined impact of tailwinds is unlikely to fully alleviate the adverse impact of the strong headwinds,' noted Paras Jasrai, associate director at Ind-Ra. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) growth is forecast to slow to 6.7 per cent in FY26, down from 7.1 per cent in FY25. A better-than-expected investment uptick in FY25, global capex hesitancy, and weak manufacturing sector outlook are dampening prospects. While sectors like logistics, renewables, and commercial real estate may sustain capex growth, others like garments and chemicals could see cutbacks. Ind-Ra expects the trade deficit to widen to $325.1 billion in FY26, up from $287.2 billion in FY25. However, strong remittances and a services surplus are likely to contain the current account deficit at 0.9 per cent of GDP. The basic external balance (current account plus net FDI) is set to deteriorate to a deficit of $34.5 billion, while the INR is likely to depreciate by 2.8 per cent against the USD. India Ratings has cut India's FY26 GDP forecast to 6.3 per cent from 6.6 per cent amid global trade uncertainty and weak investment climate. While low inflation, monetary easing, and a good monsoon support consumption, these tailwinds may not offset global headwinds. Inflation is seen averaging 3 per cent, with further rate cuts possible. Current account deficit is projected at 0.9 per cent of GDP. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
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Business Standard
23-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Ind-Ra cuts India's FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.3% on weak outlook
India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) on Wednesday trimmed India's growth projection for the current fiscal to 6.3 per cent, citing uncertainties around US tariffs and weak investment climate. Ind-Ra expects GDP in FY26 to grow 6.3 per cent y-o-y, 30bp lower than its earlier forecast of 6.6 per cent made in December 2024. The economy is facing both headwinds and tailwinds, it said in its mid-year economic outlook. "Major headwinds are: i) uncertain global scenario from the unilateral tariff hikes by the US for all countries and ii) weaker-than-expected investment climate. The major tailwinds are: i) monetary easing, ii) faster-than-expected inflation decline, and iii) likely above-normal rainfall in 2025", said Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist and Head Public Finance, Ind-Ra. The Indian economy had grown at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25 (April 2024 to March 2025) Ind-Ra's projections for FY26 are lower than the 6.5 per cent GDP growth projected by the RBI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The domestic rating agency expects average retail inflation at 3 per cent and exchange rate at 86.9 to a dollar in the current fiscal. Low inflation, monetary easing and so far favourable monsoons have brightened the scope for a continued economic recovery in FY26, and they are likely to minimise the impact of strong headwinds emanating from the uncertain global scenario. "While low inflation augurs well for consumption demand, monetary easing is likely to ease pressure on loan repayments, and better monsoon is likely to translate into brighter agriculture prospects, thus supporting rural demand. However, the combined impact of tailwinds is unlikely to fully alleviate the adverse impact of the strong headwinds", said Paras Jasrai, Economist & Associate Director, Ind-Ra. Ind-Ra said major growth drivers were expected to be monetary easing and capex. The pace of monetary easing in 2025 has been faster than our expectations. However, the tariff hikes by the US have increased the global economic uncertainty, leading to slower growth for both global demand and trade. "This has led to investors adopting a wait and watch mode before taking decisions on greenfield expansion," Ind-Ra said.
News18
23-07-2025
- Business
- News18
Ind-Ra trims Indias FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.3 pc
New Delhi, Jul 23 (PTI) India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) on Wednesday trimmed India's growth projection for the current fiscal to 6.3 per cent, citing uncertainties around US tariffs and weak investment climate. Ind-Ra expects GDP in FY26 to grow 6.3 per cent y-o-y, 30bp lower than its earlier forecast of 6.6 per cent made in December 2024. The economy is facing both headwinds and tailwinds, it said in its mid-year economic outlook. 'Major headwinds are: i) uncertain global scenario from the unilateral tariff hikes by the US for all countries and ii) weaker-than-expected investment climate. The major tailwinds are: i) monetary easing, ii) faster-than-expected inflation decline, and iii) likely above-normal rainfall in 2025", said Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist and Head Public Finance, Ind-Ra. The Indian economy had grown at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25 (April 2024 to March 2025) Ind-Ra's projections for FY26 are lower than the 6.5 per cent GDP growth projected by the RBI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The domestic rating agency expects average retail inflation at 3 per cent and exchange rate at 86.9 to a dollar in the current fiscal. Low inflation, monetary easing and so far favourable monsoons have brightened the scope for a continued economic recovery in FY26, and they are likely to minimise the impact of strong headwinds emanating from the uncertain global scenario. 'While low inflation augurs well for consumption demand, monetary easing is likely to ease pressure on loan repayments, and better monsoon is likely to translate into brighter agriculture prospects, thus supporting rural demand. However, the combined impact of tailwinds is unlikely to fully alleviate the adverse impact of the strong headwinds", said Paras Jasrai, Economist & Associate Director, Ind-Ra. Ind-Ra said major growth drivers were expected to be monetary easing and capex. The pace of monetary easing in 2025 has been faster than our expectations. However, the tariff hikes by the US have increased the global economic uncertainty, leading to slower growth for both global demand and trade. 'This has led to investors adopting a wait and watch mode before taking decisions on greenfield expansion," Ind-Ra said. PTI JD DR DR view comments First Published: July 23, 2025, 13:15 IST Disclaimer: Comments reflect users' views, not News18's. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
Economic Times
21-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
June core output at 3-month high on steady govt capex
Synopsis India's core sector shows growth. Output reached a three-month high in June at 1.7%. Government spending on infrastructure supported this growth. Steel and cement production increased. Refinery products also saw gains. However, coal, natural gas, electricity, crude oil, and fertilizers declined. Experts predict further improvement in July. Industrial activity may be impacted. ANI Representative Image New Delhi: India's core sector output grew to a three-month high of 1.7% in June, driven by sustained government capital expenditure that supported infrastructure-related sectors, even as five of the eight core industries recorded contraction, official data released Monday showed. The growth was 1.2% in May and 5% in June 2024."Steady government capex, along with the reasonable growth in steel, cement and refinery products pulled up the infrastructure output to a three-month high," said Paras Jasrai, associate director at India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra).The steel output surged to a seven-month high of 9.3% in June, while cement production increased by 9.2%, due to a favourable base effect. "The growth in volumes of these segments has been quite healthy in Q1FY26, which implies that the construction sector is poised to record a robust GVA (gross value added) growth in the quarter," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA. Official GVA figures for the June quarter will be released in August. Output of refinery products grew to a five-month high of 3.4% strong performance of these three sectors helped prevent a contraction in core sector output, offsetting decline in other five industries - coal (6.8%), natural gas and electricity (2.8% each), and crude oil and fertilizers (1.2% each)."While an elevated base weighed upon coal output, excess rains in the latter half of June impacted electricity generation," explained added that the swift progression of the southwest monsoon across the country along with a high base effect were some of the average, core sector output averaged 1.3%, lower than 6.2% in the corresponding period last ahead, Ind-Ra projects core sector output to improve further to around 2% year-on-year in the eight core industries account for 40.27% weight in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), economists expect the tepid growth in core sector output to impact industrial activity as output grew by 1.2% year-on-year in May from 2.6% in April, according to official data released last month. Estimates for June will be released on July anticipates IIP growth to remain around 1.5% in July, while ICRA expects 1.5-2.5%.
Time of India
21-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
June core output at 3-month high on steady govt capex
New Delhi: India's core sector output grew to a three-month high of 1.7% in June, driven by sustained government capital expenditure that supported infrastructure-related sectors, even as five of the eight core industries recorded contraction, official data released Monday showed. The growth was 1.2% in May and 5% in June 2024. "Steady government capex, along with the reasonable growth in steel, cement and refinery products pulled up the infrastructure output to a three-month high," said Paras Jasrai, associate director at India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra). Explore courses from Top Institutes in Select a Course Category Data Analytics Technology Design Thinking healthcare PGDM Cybersecurity Data Science Management Operations Management Degree Others Public Policy Product Management Artificial Intelligence Project Management Data Science Finance others Leadership MCA CXO MBA Digital Marketing Healthcare Skills you'll gain: Data Analysis & Visualization Predictive Analytics & Machine Learning Business Intelligence & Data-Driven Decision Making Analytics Strategy & Implementation Duration: 12 Weeks Indian School of Business Applied Business Analytics Starts on Jun 13, 2024 Get Details The steel output surged to a seven-month high of 9.3% in June, while cement production increased by 9.2%, due to a favourable base effect. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Millions Impacted By Undisclosed Commissions And Misleading Car Finance Agreements My Car Loan Claims Learn More Undo "The growth in volumes of these segments has been quite healthy in Q1FY26, which implies that the construction sector is poised to record a robust GVA (gross value added) growth in the quarter," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA . Live Events Official GVA figures for the June quarter will be released in August. Output of refinery products grew to a five-month high of 3.4% year-on-year. The strong performance of these three sectors helped prevent a contraction in core sector output, offsetting decline in other five industries - coal (6.8%), natural gas and electricity (2.8% each), and crude oil and fertilizers (1.2% each). "While an elevated base weighed upon coal output, excess rains in the latter half of June impacted electricity generation," explained Nayar. Jasrai added that the swift progression of the southwest monsoon across the country along with a high base effect were some of the reasons. On average, core sector output averaged 1.3%, lower than 6.2% in the corresponding period last year. Looking ahead, Ind-Ra projects core sector output to improve further to around 2% year-on-year in July. Since the eight core industries account for 40.27% weight in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), economists expect the tepid growth in core sector output to impact industrial activity as well. Industrial output grew by 1.2% year-on-year in May from 2.6% in April, according to official data released last month. Estimates for June will be released on July 28. Ind-Ra anticipates IIP growth to remain around 1.5% in July, while ICRA expects 1.5-2.5%.
