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Yahoo
4 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Analysis-Diplomacy or defiance: Iran's rulers face existential choice after US-Israeli strikes
By Parisa Hafezi DUBAI (Reuters) -Weakened by war and diplomatic deadlock, Iran's clerical elite stands at a crossroads: defy pressure to halt its nuclear activity and risk further Israeli and U.S. attack, or concede and risk a leadership fracture. For now, the Islamic Republic establishment is focusing on immediate survival over longer-term political strategy. A fragile ceasefire ended a 12-day war in June that began with Israeli air strikes, followed by U.S. bunker-busting bombings of three underground Iranian nuclear sites. Both sides declared victory but the war exposed the military vulnerabilities and punctured the image of deterrence maintained by a major Middle East power and Israel's arch regional foe. Three Iranian insiders told Reuters the political establishment now views negotiations with the U.S. - aimed at resolving a decades-long dispute over its nuclear ambitions - as the only way to avoid further escalation and existential peril. The strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets, which included killings of top Revolutionary Guard commanders and nuclear scientists, shocked Tehran, kicking off just a day before a planned sixth round of talks with Washington. While Tehran accused Washington of "betraying diplomacy", some hardline lawmakers and military commanders blamed officials who advocated diplomacy with Washington, arguing the dialogue proved a "strategic trap" that distracted the armed forces. However, one political insider, who like others requested anonymity given the sensitivity of the matter, said the leadership now leaned towards talks as "they've seen the cost of military confrontation". President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sunday that resuming talks with the United States "does not mean we intend to surrender", addressing hardliners opposing further nuclear diplomacy after the war. He added: "You don't want to talk? What do you want to do? ... Do you want to go (back) to war?" His remarks were criticised by hardliners including Revolutionary Guards commander Aziz Ghazanfari, who warned that foreign policy demands discretion and that careless statements could have serious consequences. Ultimately, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds the final say. Insiders said he and the clerical power structure had reached a consensus to resume nuclear negotiations, viewing them as vital to the Islamic Republic's survival. Iran's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment. DYNAMICS AND EXTERNAL PRESSURE U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have warned they will not hesitate to hit Iran again if it resumes enrichment of uranium, a possible pathway to developing nuclear weapons. Last week, Trump warned that if Iran restarted enrichment despite the June strikes on its key production plants, "we'll be back'. Tehran responded with a vow of forceful retaliation. Still, Tehran fears future strikes could cripple political and military coordination, and so has formed a defence council to ensure command continuity even if the 87-year-old Khamenei must relocate to a remote hideaway to avoid assassination. Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C., said that if Iran seeks to rapidly rebuild its nuclear capacity without securing diplomatic or security guarantees, "a U.S.–Israeli strike won't just be possible - it will be all but inevitable". "Re-entering talks could buy Tehran valuable breathing room and economic relief, but without swift U.S. reciprocity it risks a hardline backlash, deepening elite divisions, and fresh accusations of surrender," Vatanka said. Tehran insists on its right to uranium enrichment as part of what it maintains is a peaceful nuclear energy programme, while the Trump administration demands a total halt - a core sticking point in the diplomatic standoff. Renewed United Nations sanctions under the so-called "snapback" mechanism, pushed by three European powers, loom as a further threat if Tehran refuses to return to negotiations or if no verifiable deal to curb its nuclear activity results. Tehran has threatened to quit the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. But insiders say this is a pressure tactic, not a realistic plan - as exiting the NPT would telegraph an Iranian race for nuclear bombs and invite U.S. and Israeli intervention. A senior Western diplomat said Iran's rulers were vulnerable as never before, and any defiance was a gamble liable to backfire at a time of rising domestic unrest, impaired deterrence power and Israel's disabling of Iran's militia proxies in wars around the Middle East since 2023. MOUNTING ANXIETY Among ordinary Iranians, weariness over war and international isolation runs deep, compounded by a growing sense of failed governance. The oil-based economy, already hobbled by sanctions and state mismanagement, is under worsening strain. Daily blackouts afflict cities around the country of 87 million people, forcing many businesses to cut back. Reservoirs have receded to record lows, prompting warnings from the government of a looming 'national water emergency.' Many Iranians - even those opposed to the Shi'ite theocracy - rallied behind the country during the June war, but now face lost incomes and intensified repression. Alireza, 43, a furniture merchant in Tehran, said he is considering downsizing his business and relocating his family outside the capital amid fears of further air attack. "This is the result of 40 years of failed policies," he said, alluding to Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution that toppled the Western-backed monarchy. "We are a resource-rich country and yet people don't have water and electricity. My customers have no money. My business is collapsing." At least 20 people across Iran interviewed by phone echoed Alireza's sentiment - that while most Iranians do not want another war, they are also losing faith in the establishment's capacity to govern wisely. Despite broad discontent, large-scale protests have not broken out. Instead, authorities have tightened security, ramped up pressure on pro-democracy activists, accelerated executions and cracked down on alleged Israeli-linked spy networks - fuelling fears of widening surveillance and repression. However, sidelined moderates have resurfaced in state media after years of exclusion. Some analysts see this as a move to ally public anxiety and signal the possibility of reform from within - without "regime change" that would shift core policies. (Writing by Parisa Hafezi; editing by Mark Heinrich) Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
10-08-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Iran threatens planned Trump corridor envisaged by Azerbaijan-Armenia peace deal
By Parisa Hafezi and Andrew Osborn DUBAI/MOSCOW (Reuters) -Iran threatened on Saturday to block a corridor planned in the Caucasus under a regional deal sponsored by U.S. President Donald Trump, Iranian media reported, raising a new question mark over a peace plan hailed as a strategically important shift. A top Azerbaijani diplomat said earlier that the plan, announced by Trump on Friday, was just one step from a final peace deal between his country and Armenia, which reiterated its support for the plan. The proposed Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) would run across southern Armenia, giving Azerbaijan a direct route to its exclave of Nakhchivan and in turn to Turkey. The U.S. would have exclusive development rights to the corridor, which the White House said would facilitate greater exports of energy and other resources. It was not immediately clear how Iran, which borders the area, would block it but the statement from Ali Akbar Velayati, top adviser to Iran's supreme leader, raised questions over its security. He said military exercises carried out in northwest Iran demonstrated the Islamic Republic's readiness and determination to prevent any geopolitical changes. "This corridor will not become a passage owned by Trump, but rather a graveyard for Trump's mercenaries," Velayati said. Iran's foreign ministry earlier welcomed the agreement "as an important step toward lasting regional peace", but warned against any foreign intervention near its borders that could "undermine the region's security and lasting stability". Analysts and insiders say that Iran, under mounting US pressure over its disputed nuclear programme and the aftermath of a 12-day war with Israel in June, lacks the military power to block the corridor. MOSCOW SAYS WEST SHOULD STEER CLEAR Trump welcomed Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the White House on Friday and witnessed their signing of a joint declaration aimed at drawing a line under their decades-long on-off conflict. Russia, a traditional broker and ally of Armenia in the strategically important South Caucasus region which is crisscrossed with oil and gas pipelines, was not included, despite its border guards being stationed on the border between Armenia and Iran. While Moscow said it supported the summit, it proposed "implementing solutions developed by the countries of the region themselves with the support of their immediate neighbours – Russia, Iran and Turkey" to avoid what it called the "sad experience" of Western efforts to mediate in the Middle East. Azerbaijan's close ally, NATO member Turkey, welcomed the accord. Baku and Yerevan have been at odds since the late 1980s when Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous Azerbaijani region mostly populated by ethnic Armenians, broke away from Azerbaijan with support from Armenia. Azerbaijan took back full control of the region in 2023, prompting almost all of the territory's 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee to Armenia. "The chapter of enmity is closed and now we're moving towards lasting peace," said Elin Suleymanov, Azerbaijan's ambassador to Britain, predicting that the wider region's prosperity and transport links would be transformed for the better. "This is a paradigm shift," said Suleymanov, who as a former envoy to Washington who used to work in President Aliyev's office, is one of his country's most senior diplomats. Suleymanov declined to speculate on when a final peace deal would be signed however, noting that Aliyev had said he wanted it to happen soon. There remained only one obstacle, said Suleymanov, which was for Armenia to amend its constitution to remove a reference to Nagorno-Karabakh. "Azerbaijan is ready to sign any time once Armenia fulfils the very basic commitment of removing its territorial claim against Azerbaijan in its constitution," he said. MANY QUESTIONS UNANSWERED Pashinyan this year called for a referendum to change the constitution, but no date for it has been set yet. Armenia is to hold parliamentary elections in June 2026, and the new constitution is expected to be drafted before the vote. The Armenian leader said on X that the Washington summit had paved the way to end the decades of conflict and open transport connections that would unlock strategic economic opportunities. Asked when the transit rail route would start running, Suleymanov said that would depend on cooperation between the U.S. and Armenia whom he said were already in talks. Joshua Kucera, Senior South Caucasus analyst at International Crisis Group, said Trump may not have got the easy win he had hoped for as the agreements left many questions unanswered. The issue of Armenia's constitution continued to threaten to derail the process, and it was not clear how the new transport corridor would work in practice. "Key details are missing, including about how customs checks and security will work and the nature of Armenia's reciprocal access to Azerbaijani territory. These could be serious stumbling blocks," said Kucera. Suleymanov played down suggestions that Russia, which still has extensive security and economic interests in Armenia, was being disadvantaged. "Anybody and everybody can benefit from this if they choose to," he said. (Additional reporting by Maxim Rodionov and Dubai newsroom; Editing by Philippa Fletcher) Solve the daily Crossword
Japan Today
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Japan Today
Iran and Israel trade air and missile strikes
A satellite view shows an overview of Fordow underground complex, after the U.S. struck the underground nuclear facility, near Qom, Iran June 22, 2025. MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES/Handout via REUTERS By Parisa Hafezi, Phil Stewart and Maayan Lubell Iran and Israel traded air and missile strikes as the world braced on Monday for Tehran's response to the U.S. attack on its nuclear sites and U.S. President Donald Trump raised the idea of regime change in the Islamic republic. Iran vowed to defend itself on Sunday, a day after the U.S. joined Israel in the biggest Western military action against the country since its 1979 Islamic Revolution, despite calls for restraint and a return to diplomacy from around the world. Commercial satellite imagery indicated the U.S. attack on Saturday on Iran's subterranean Fordow nuclear plant severely damaged or destroyed the deeply buried site and the uranium-enriching centrifuges it housed, but the status of the site remained unconfirmed, experts said. In his latest social media comments on the U.S. strikes, Trump said "Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran." "The biggest damage took place far below ground level. Bullseye!!!" he wrote on his Truth Social platform. Trump earlier called on Iran to forgo any retaliation and said the government "must now make peace" or "future attacks would be far greater and a lot easier." The U.S. launched 75 precision-guided munitions including bunker-buster bombs and more than two dozen Tomahawk missiles against three Iranian nuclear sites, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, told reporters. The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, said no increases in off-site radiation levels had been reported after the U.S. strikes. Rafael Grossi, the agency's director general, told CNN that it was not yet possible to assess the damage done underground. A senior Iranian source told Reuters that most of the highly enriched uranium at Fordow had been moved elsewhere before the attack. Reuters could not immediately corroborate the claim. Tehran, which denies its nuclear program is for anything other than peaceful purposes, sent a volley of missiles at Israel in the aftermath of the U.S. attack, wounding scores of people and destroying buildings in Tel Aviv. But it had not acted on its main threats of retaliation, to target U.S. bases or choke off oil shipments that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Attempting to strangle Gulf oil supply by closing the strait could send global oil prices skyrocketing, derail the world economy and invite conflict with the U.S. Navy's massive Fifth Fleet based in the Gulf. Oil prices jumped on Monday to their highest since January. Brent crude futures LCOc1 rose $1.88 or 2.44% at $78.89 a barrel as of 1122 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 advanced $1.87 or 2.53% at $75.71. Iran's parliament has approved a move to close the strait, which Iran shares with Oman and the United Arab Emirates. Iran's Press TV said any such move would require approval from the Supreme National Security Council, a body led by an appointee of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Caine said the U.S. military had increased protection of troops in the region, including in Iraq and Syria. The U.S. State Department issued a security alert for all U.S. citizens abroad, calling on them to "exercise increased caution." U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday called on China to encourage Iran to not shut down the strait, telling Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo" show it would be a "terrible mistake." "It's economic suicide for them if they do it. And we retain options to deal with that, but other countries should be looking at that as well. It would hurt other countries' economies a lot worse than ours," he said. The Israeli military reported a missile launch from Iran in the early hours of Monday morning, saying it was intercepted by Israeli defenses. Air raid sirens blared in Tel Aviv and other parts of central Israel. Iran has repeatedly targeted the Greater Tel Aviv - a metropolitan area of around 4 million people - the business and economic hub of Israel where there are also critical military assets. Iranian news agencies reported air defenses were activated in central Tehran districts to counter "enemy targets", and that Israeli air strikes hit Parchin, the location of a military complex southeast of the capital. REGIME CHANGE In a post to the Truth Social platform on Sunday, Trump raised the idea of regime change in Iran. "It's not politically correct to use the term, 'Regime Change,' but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn't there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!" he wrote. Trump's post came after officials in his administration, including U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, stressed they were not working to overthrow Iran's government. Israeli officials, who began the hostilities with a surprise attack on Iran on June 13, have increasingly spoken of their ambition to topple the hardline Shi'ite Muslim clerical establishment. As Tehran weighed its options, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi is expected to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday. The Kremlin has a strategic partnership with Iran, but also close links with Israel. Speaking in Istanbul on Sunday, Araqchi said his country would consider all possible responses and there would be no return to diplomacy until it had retaliated. Russia's foreign ministry condemned the U.S. attacks which it said had undermined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and warned of the conflict spreading in the Middle East. The U.N. Security Council met on Sunday to discuss the U.S. strikes as Russia, China and Pakistan proposed the 15-member body adopt a resolution calling for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the Middle East. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told the Security Council the U.S. bombings in Iran marked a perilous turn in the region and urged a return to negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. Commercial airlines were weighing how long to suspend Middle East flights after the U.S. struck Iran. The Middle East route has become more important for flights between Europe and Asia but flight tracking website FlightRadar24 showed empty space on Sunday over Iran, Iraq, Syria and Israel. © Thomson Reuters 2025.
Yahoo
21-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Exclusive-Senior Iranian official: European proposals in Geneva unrealistic
By Parisa Hafezi ISTANBUL (Reuters) -A senior Iranian official said on Saturday that proposals put forward by European powers at talks in Geneva about his country's nuclear programme were "unrealistic", suggesting that if they stuck to them it would be difficult to reach an accord. There were few signs of progress on Friday after the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany, known as the E3, plus the EU met their Iranian counterpart in a bid to prevent the conflict between Israel and Iran from escalating. "The discussions and proposals made by the Europeans in Geneva were unrealistic. Insisting on these positions will not bring Iran and Europe closer to an agreement," the senior official told Reuters, while speaking on condition of anonymity. "In any case, Iran will review the European proposals in Tehran and present its responses in the next meeting,' the official said. Both sides signalled on Friday their readiness to keep talking, although no new date was set. European diplomats said Friday's talks had been aimed at testing Tehran's willingness to negotiate a new nuclear deal despite there being no obvious prospect of Israel halting its attacks soon. While neither side disclosed details of what was put forward, two European diplomats said the E3 did not believe that Israel would accept a ceasefire in the near term and that it would be difficult for Iran and the U.S. to resume negotiations. They said the idea was to begin a parallel negotiating track, initially without the U.S., on a new deal that would involve tougher inspections, including potentially of Iran's ballistic missile programme, while allowing Tehran some notional uranium enrichment capacity. French President Emmanuel Macron on Saturday spoke with his Iranian counterpart and said the two sides had agreed to accelerate negotiations, although he insisted it was up to Iran "to provide every assurance that its intentions are peaceful." Despite some European ministers suggesting on Friday that Iran was more ready to talk about issues beyond the nuclear programme, the senior official dismissed the possibility of negotiating its defensive capabilities, including its missile programme, and repeated that the idea of zero enrichment of uranium was a dead end. "Iran welcomes diplomacy but not under the shadow of war," the official said. (Writing and additional reporting by John Irish. Editing by Mark Potter and Hugh Lawson)
The Star
21-06-2025
- Politics
- The Star
Exclusive-Senior Iranian official: European proposals in Geneva unrealistic
ISTANBUL (Reuters) -The discussions and proposals made by the European powers to Iran over its nuclear programme in Geneva were unrealistic and insisting on them will not bring both sides closer to an agreement, a senior Iranian official told Reuters. "In any case, Iran will review the European proposals in Tehran and present its responses in the next meeting," the official said. He added that zero enrichment was a dead end and that Iran would not negotiate over its defensive capabilities, including its missile programme. (Reporting by Parisa Hafezi. Writing by John Irish. Editing by Mark Potter)
