Latest news with #PaulWiltshire
Telegraph
31-05-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
Public has been misled on value of university, says government watchdog
The public are being 'misled' over the value of university education, the Government's statistics watchdog has ruled. Official figures which claim to show that graduates out-earn non-graduates by more than £10,000 a year are flawed, the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) has warned. The average gap between what graduates earn compared to those without a degree – known as the annual 'graduate premium' figure – has long been used as one of the biggest justifications for going to university. The Department for Education (DfE) figures claim that average earnings for graduates are consistently above those of non-graduates by around £10,500 a year. However, as thousands of teenagers sit their A-levels with the hope of going to university this year, the OSR says the 'current framing of the graduate premium has limitations' and it could be 'misleading for users'. The review comes in response to a challenge to their veracity by Paul Wiltshire, a father of four and an accountant with a degree in maths and statistics. The ruling from the OSR, which ensures official statistics are trustworthy and valuable, will fuel growing concerns that young people are being oversold the value of university, and that too many are studying 'Mickey Mouse' degrees that offer no solid prospect of high-flying careers. Reacting to the review, critics called university a 'rip-off' and warned that teenagers are being sold a 'pipedream based on flawed government statistics'. Prompted by concerns that thousands of students every year were graduating with massive debts but could only find low-paid jobs, he carried out a six-month analysis of graduate outcome statistics. Mr Wiltshire's research – 'Why is the average Graduate Premium falling?' – blows a hole in the claim that the overall premium is £10,500 a year. In it, he shows that as university participation began to rise above 30 per cent of the young-adult population around two decades ago, the graduate premium disappeared to an average of zero for the extra graduates in the higher education system. Official figures show that five years after leaving university, graduates with four As at A-level have a salary range of £33,900 to £61,000, with the median at £47,100. Those with three Bs earn between £25,600 and £43,100. However, for those with three Cs or below, future earnings fall to a range of £21,500 to £34,700. Mr Wiltshire's analysis shows that around 160,000 of the UK's 2024 student intake of 495,000 will earn around the same as or less than non-graduates, but will be saddled with an average student debt of £45,000. The 58-year-old sent his analysis to the OSR earlier this year, prompting the body to review the statistics. The findings of that review say the statistics are flawed and could be giving young people a false impression of the value of their degrees. The OSR says that as the data set used to compile graduate premium statistics does not take into account prior attainment (A-level results and their equivalents), they are of limited use. Mr Wiltshire claimed that the flawed graduate premium statistics were selling young people a lie. 'There are multiple reasons why teenagers are choosing the university route as opposed to going into work but the main one is the societal perception that there is a healthy graduate premium,' he told The Telegraph. 'Because of the graduate premium, students are told 'don't worry about the debt, it will be worth your while'. But the case I brought to the OSR and its verdict show that this is a false promise. 'You would have thought that given the importance of the graduate premium statistics in young people's choices, the DfE would have worked harder to ensure they are valid, but they are clearly not. The way they are calculated is fundamentally wrong.' He added that the concern was not just about so-called Mickey Mouse degrees, but about the supply of 'good degrees' that take no account of the available jobs. For instance, Law Society data show that around 30,000 law graduates each year are chasing just 5,000 traineeships. 'Milking students' Ed Humpherson, head of the OSR, said he now expects the DfE to make changes to the publication of the data to 'reflect that the statistics should not be used to compare the outcomes of graduates and non-graduates in isolation from prior academic attainment'. The body also said it 'expects a more comprehensive and accurate definition' of the graduate premium to be used in any future official statistics publications which make use of the term. Liz Emerson, chief executive of the Intergenerational Foundation, said: 'For too long governments have dangled the promise of a graduate premium to justify milking students with sky-high interest rates, decades of repayments and high repayment rates. 'At the very least the Government should lower the current nine per cent taken from young graduates' pay packets. This research has important implications over the setting of the repayment threshold.' Ms Emerson added students on a plan-five student loan have to start repaying their loans once earning over £25,000, which 'we believe is far too low', especially given the rise in the minimum wage. Chris McGovern, chairman of the Campaign for Real Education, said: 'Micky Mouse degrees enrich universities but impoverish debt-laden students. 'Paul Wiltshire has done a huge service for young people by exposing the great university rip-off. It is a rip-off that was aided and abetted by Tony Blair's misguided determination to drive more and more school leavers on to dead-end degree courses.' John O'Connell, chief executive of the TaxPayers' Alliance, said: 'It's heartbreaking to see that so many young people have been sold a pipedream based on flawed government statistics. 'There are far too many youngsters going to university, too many courses that aren't worth the time or expense, and a taxpayer-underwritten debt mountain piling up, leaving graduates with long-term financial headaches. 'The Government must make sure its statistics reflect the reality of obtaining a university education, which often sees young people with jobs that don't require a degree while saddled with crippling debt.' A DfE spokesman said: 'We will continue to back our world-class universities as engines of growth and opportunity, however it is vital that students can be confident the significant investment they make in higher education delivers real value for money. 'Our statistics publications are regularly reviewed for accuracy and relevance of content, and we have made clear how the graduate premium statistic should be interpreted.'
Telegraph
03-05-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
The Labour Party has failed to grasp that the mood of the country is turning against it
SIR – We agree that more – and more accurate – information for prospective students is absolutely essential if they are to make informed choices about their futures. That is why we would like to move away from the Office for Students graduate outcomes and employability data that Paul Wiltshire quoted in Julie Henry's article (Features, April 27), which only goes up to 15 months after leaving university. When student earnings are measured using the Government's Longitudinal Educational Outcomes data across a career lifetime, the average graduate's earnings outstrip the non-graduates by more than £100,0000, even once higher taxes and student loan repayments are taken into account. What's more, graduates are at least twice as likely to be in employment than those who didn't go to university. For the vast majority of students, university pays off. Vivienne Stern Chief executive, Universities UK London WC1 SIR – I read with interest the article by Julie Henry regarding the worth of going to university. The article mentioned the financial burden of student debt, and also parents' large financial contribution, both of which remained unpaid when the promised return of a good salary after graduation did not materialise. What was not mentioned was that the rise of 'new' universities and the need for student accommodation over the past 20 years have also created an opportunity for buy-to-let landlords. Many purchased properties close to the universities, then converted them into student houses of multiple occupation, which gave a good return on their investment. Historically, these properties would have been bought by first-time buyers or for long-term rentals. All this has not only added to the need for more housing in most university cities across the United Kingdom, it has also created a huge number of properties which lie empty for a substantial period of the year.
