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CNA
3 days ago
- Business
- CNA
Why isn't China's defence minister attending Shangri-la Dialogue, and how will it affect Sino-US ties?
SINGAPORE: China's decision not to send its defence minister Dong Jun to this year's Shangri-La security dialogue (SLD) in Singapore reflects a deliberate decision on Beijing's part to withhold ministerial-level participation amid fraught geopolitical conditions, analysts told CNA. In a statement issued on Thursday (May 29), a day before the forum's official opening, China's Ministry of National Defense said a delegation from the People's Liberation Army's National Defense University would attend in Dong's place, without providing details on who would be leading it. The delegation 'will have in-depth exchanges with different parties to build more consensus', said ministry spokesman Zhang Xiaogang, who did not address why Dong would not be attending or whether the Chinese team would meet with US counterparts. This will be the first time since 2019 that China will not be represented by its defence minister at the annual security summit, a key platform where Beijing's positions on flashpoints like Taiwan and the South China Sea have drawn intense international scrutiny over the years. 'Past records show that the level of China's delegation is closely linked to the international climate and perceived external pressures,' said Lim Tai Wei, an East Asian affairs observer and professor at Soka University in Japan. With US President Donald Trump back in power, analysts who spoke to CNA believe that Beijing may see limited strategic benefit in sending its top defence ministry official to the annual event, particularly with newly appointed US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth slated to be in attendance. Without ministerial-level attendance, Beijing will also forgo the opportunity to hold high-level bilateral meetings with direct counterparts in countries like the US, experts added. CONTROLLING THE NARRATIVE Beijing's decision to forgo high-level ministerial representation might also be related to unfavourable optics, Lim said, especially in environments where Washington and Western counterparts may seek to frame the dialogue in more performative terms. 'China operates within a high-context political culture, where atmospherics, non-verbal cues, and the overall tone of engagement carry significant weight,' Lim said. 'There tends to be a preference for controlled settings and predictability,' Lim added. 'In a fluid international environment, where developments can shift quickly, this may have contributed to the decision not to send a senior-level delegation this year.' Benjamin Ho, an assistant professor at the China Programme of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore, noted that China has historically sent its defence ministers to the annual summit when 'global conditions were right' for talks with counterparts - especially those from the US. US-China relations have rapidly deteriorated, particularly with renewed tariff disputes, trade tensions and Trump's decision to clamp down on Harvard's Chinese international students. Against this current backdrop, there has been 'little strategic reason' for Beijing to send a ministerial-level delegation to the SLD, Ho added. 'Last year, (then-US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin) reiterated the idea that when US-China relations are not good, (both sides) should meet and talk,' Ho said. 'But for China, it's quite different. For Beijing, if relations are not good, there is no need for the military to meet and talk.' 'Beijing only talks when political conditions are correct so I think (they) are operating from a very different kind of paradigm.' Lin Ying-yu, an assistant professor at the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University in Taiwan, said Beijing's hesitation may reflect internal uncertainty about how to manage defence diplomacy under Trump's second term. 'China has yet to settle on a clear approach to engaging the US,' he said. 'At present, (President) Xi Jinping has not had direct or formal dialogue with Trump since his return to office so I think China has not finalised its position on how to handle relations with the US under this new term.' Sending a lower-level delegation would be a way for Beijing to test the waters, Lin added. 'This is a way for China to first observe how the US responds in the security and defence space, before deciding what kind of posture or attitude to adopt going forward.' ALLEGED CORRUPTION PROBE NOT AT PLAY? Dong, a Chinese naval admiral from the People's Liberation Army (PLA), assumed the role of Chinese defence minister in late 2023. His predecessors Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu were both expelled from the ruling Communist Party and dismissed from their roles over bribes and other 'serious disciplinary violations'. Observers have noted Dong's own brush with the wide-ranging corruption campaign, which has plagued China's military since last year - nine PLA generals and at least four aerospace defence industry executives were removed as a result. Dong's SLD absence has prompted speculation of him being under an alleged disciplinary probe - but defence officials and analysts now caution against drawing direct conclusions, noting his recent travel history and no official comments linking him to misconduct. 'There's been speculation about whether Admiral Dong is in political trouble, but that doesn't ring true,' said Drew Thompson, a former US Department of Defense (DOD) official, in a LinkedIn post shared on Friday, which noted Dong's three-day visit to Berlin in mid-May, where he met with Germany's defence minister and addressed UN officials. Dong also recently held a high-profile meeting with Thailand's Chief of Defense Forces, General Songwit Noonpakdee, in Beijing. Thompson said it signalled that Dong remained active in his official capacity as Chinese defence minister despite his absence from the annual regional forum. Lin said there was no clear connection between the ongoing anti-corruption drive within the PLA and Dong's SLD absence. 'In China, decisions to prosecute senior officials are made at the top levels of the party hierarchy. These are not developments that outsiders can easily interpret or anticipate,' he said. From his assessment of the situation, it also appeared that Dong might have been given clearance to attend the summit in Singapore and may even have intended to go. 'But due to how the optics might play out, they likely opted for a lower-level delegation instead.' 'I don't believe this has anything to do with the current probe inside the PLA,' Lin added. REVERTING TO A PREVIOUS NORM Attended by world leaders and high-ranking government officials from more than 40 countries, as well as academics and business leaders, SLD is widely regarded as the region's most prominent multilateral forum on defence and security. China's attendance and participation is often among the highlights. The US has maintained consistent participation at the highest level, with its defence secretary attending every edition of the forum. By contrast, Beijing has varied its level of representation over the years, observers added. Since 2019, excluding 2020 and 2021 when the forum was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, China's last three defence ministers, Wei Fenghe, Li Shangfu, and Dong Jun each attended and delivered keynote speeches. But the level of engagement has not always been consistent, analysts noted. China began participating more actively in 2007, initially sending deputy chiefs of the General Staff, including Zhang Qinsheng and Ma Xiaotian, between 2007 and 2010. In 2011, during a period of improved China-US ties following then-President Hu Jintao's visit to Washington, Beijing dispatched its then-defence minister, Liang Guanglie, to the forum for the first time. But it lowered its profile the following year, sending Ren Haiquan, then vice president of the Academy of Military Sciences instead. Between 2013 and 2018, China continued to participate, but again at a sub-ministerial level. Delegation leaders during this period included Deputy Chiefs of the General Staff Qi Jianguo (2013), Wang Guanzhong (2014), and Sun Jianguo (2015 and 2016), as well as He Lei, vice president of the Academy of Military Sciences (2017 and 2018). The presence of Hegseth, an outspoken critic of China, may have been a significant factor in Beijing's decision not to send a defence minister to this year's SLD, analysts said. 'If Dong comes, he is basically coming here to get whacked by Hegseth,' Ho said. 'He is going to repeat very much the same lines, in a way, and if he doesn't repeat the same lines, then it's going to be much more aggressive.' 'For the Chinese, they don't see that the political conditions are right. Having a defence minister coming and saying certain things (in response), which may or may not run in accordance to what the party wants, might create more problems than solutions,' he added. China also has the Xiangshan Forum, its own security forum that's touted as an alternative to Singapore's SLD, Ho added. 'So in a way, they are not losing out because they have their own (security) platforms.' Tamkang University's Lin noted that Beijing favoured settings where it could shape its narrative. The Xiangshan Forum would be a much more comfortable platform for defence engagement as compared to the SLD. In his LinkedIn post, Thompson said Dong's absence could reflect deeper dissatisfaction with the nature of the SLD itself. 'I surmise Dong Jun's absence is a signal of frustration with the dialogue itself. They've never liked it, which is why they started the Xiangshan Forum,' said Thomson. He also recalled a past exchange. 'My PLA counterpart once explained what they didn't like. He said: 'We don't like being made out to be gladiators fighting one another for others' entertainment. We want to deal with our differences bilaterally, in channels, not in public forums.'' 'Beijing always wants to control the narrative and discourse. Shangri-La does not enable that. Xiangshan Forum does,' Thompson said. ABSENCE WITH A COST SLD remains one of the rare global venues which sees senior Chinese defence officials field direct questions from foreign counterparts, scholars and journalists - offering a rare window into Beijing's strategic posture. The presence of China's defence minister also enables other countries to engage Beijing in bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the forum. This year however, that opportunity will be missing, experts said. Dong's absence will be an 'opportunity loss' for Beijing, Ho said, noting that the decision likely reflects a calculated trade-off. 'They probably made a calculation to the extent that their strategic interest obviously outweighs the fact that they are absent … that the fact they can preserve their interest without being at the forum is something that probably swung the decision not to come,' he said. Ho pointed out that ministerial meetings can still happen through other channels. 'One could say that maybe the Chinese would find other avenues to meet the Americans, and not necessarily at the SLD. And I think vice versa - Americans will probably shrug and say, 'Okay, it's an opportunity loss, but we'll find other ways to meet the Chinese, assuming that's what they want to do.'' Thompson said that both Beijing and Washington still had pre existing bilateral mechanisms. 'Beijing knows how to engage Washington and does not need third countries to facilitate. If political conditions are right, the PLA will meet with the DOD,' he said. The overall strategic cost of skipping the forum would likely be minimal for Beijing, Lim said, adding that the Chinese defence minister typically served more as a diplomatic envoy than a core decision-maker. 'Take for instance regional players including ASEAN nations - they will be understanding of how China manages its representation,' Lim said. 'They have other avenues to engage with Beijing, and some of these, away from the glare of media and in a bilateral format, would probably be as useful, if not more useful, than a full-scale forum,' Lim said.
Bloomberg
4 days ago
- General
- Bloomberg
China Defense Minister Skips Singapore Forum Attended by Hegseth
China indicated it will not send its top military diplomat to a key defense forum in Asia for the first time since 2019, preventing a potential first encounter with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. China will be represented by a delegation from the People's Liberation Army National Defense University at this year's Shangri-La Dialogue, a spokesman from the Defense Ministry said at a briefing in Beijing on Thursday.
Free Malaysia Today
22-05-2025
- Politics
- Free Malaysia Today
China marks Lai's first year in office with drills
Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te has vowed 'to prepare for war to avoid war'. (EPA Images pic) BEIJING : China conducted amphibious drills in some of its closest waters to Taiwan as the self-ruled island's president marked one year in office, state broadcaster CCTV said. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, detested by Beijing, vowed on Tuesday 'to prepare for war to avoid war' and bolster the island's economic resilience. That morning, China sent several 'armoured vehicles' into waters off southern Fujian, the eastern Chinese province closest to Taiwan, CCTV said. Footage of the drills released by the broadcaster's military outlet showed several camouflage-patterned tanks pushing off a sandy bank into the ocean. Soldiers in orange life vests drove the tanks around floating obstacles, the roughly minute-long montage showed, backed by an operatic instrumental score. 'Soldier is our identity, training is our daily routine,' said one member of the Chinese brigade, adding: 'We are always ready to fight.' Sets of high-rises could be seen in the background of at least two frames. China, which claims self-ruled Taiwan is part of its territory and has threatened to use force to annex it, has held several rounds of large-scale military drills around the island since Lai took office. Taiwan's defence ministry said on Wednesday it had detected 15 aircraft and eight vessels of the People's Liberation Army operating around the island in the last 24 hours. China's drills were 'routine' and 'scheduled', and there was 'no impact on the security of surrounding sea and airspace', Taiwan's defence ministry said in a statement. AdChoices ADVERTISING Marking the anniversary, Beijing's Taiwan affairs office also slammed Lai's 'separatist position' that promoted 'economic decoupling' across the Taiwan Strait. Beijing was 'willing to engage in dialogue' with Taipei but on condition that it accepts 'the one-China principle', spokesperson Chen Binhua said, referring to its policy that states Taiwan is part of China. Taiwan's Lai had said on Tuesday there was room for communication with Beijing if there was 'parity and dignity'.
Wall Street Journal
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Wall Street Journal
Is ‘Zero Day' a Preview of Taiwan's Future?
Taipei The trouble begins on election day, with a bombing that interrupts voting, calls into question the legitimacy of the results, and inflames societal rifts. Concurrently, a People's Liberation Army Y-8 aircraft goes down in the Taiwan Strait, and Beijing uses search-and-rescue operations as the pretext for a blockade. China also makes a move on an outlying island. War appears imminent. How will Taiwan's people respond?
South China Morning Post
15-05-2025
- Politics
- South China Morning Post
Taiwan sees spike in PLA military activity as island stages defence drills
Taiwan has reported an increase in activity by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) near the self-ruled island over the past five days, as its own military conducted a series of live-fire drills to test its amphibious defences. The island's defence ministry on Thursday reported 29 aircraft and nine vessels operating near the island in the 24 hours from 6am Wednesday. A total of 18 aircraft crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait between Taiwan and mainland China, patrolling on the northern and southwestern side of the island, it said. It was the fourth consecutive day that the ministry reported around 30 military aircraft near the island. Over the past three months, it has reported 12 days with more than 30 aircraft near the island. The number brings the five-day total to 161 sorties detected near the island. Taiwan said the PLA conducted a 'joint combat readiness patrol' on Sunday, which involved 30 aircraft, including J-16 advanced fighters, KJ-500 airborne early warning aircraft, and drones. The PLA, however, has made no mention of any operation.
