Latest news with #PersonalConsumptionExpenditures
Axios
02-08-2025
- Business
- Axios
Stagflation fears are back
America is showing new signs of stagflation — inflation running hotter, the job market suffering new weakness, and economists warning both are at risk of getting worse in the months ahead. Why it matters: The word "stagflation" revives miserable memories of the 1970s, when Americans faced a dreadful combination of higher prices and few job opportunities. The big picture: This was the week mainstream economists were vindicated. Predictions of weaker growth and more persistent inflation — the "stag" and the "flation" — looked farfetched, until now. What they're saying: "The bottom line is that the risk of stagflation has risen meaningfully," Olu Sonola, an economist at Fitch Ratings, wrote in a client note. "Inflation is drifting further from target, private sector economic growth has slowed materially, and the labor market has just sounded a warning bell." Catch up quick: Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics' top official on Friday, hours after the agency reported weaker-than-expected jobs growth. He claimed, without evidence, that the numbers were politically manipulated. In an interview with Axios, top White House economist Stephen Miran agreed that the BLS needed new leadership to address massive data revisions, but did not claim the numbers were manipulated. By the numbers: The economy added just 73,000 jobs last month, while historic downward revisions suggested the labor market added almost no jobs at all the previous two months. What's going on: That's the "stag." Now consider the other indicators released in the past week. 💰 GDP: The economy expanded at a 3% annualized rate in the second quarter, boosted by the reversal of unprecedented importing activity in the first quarter. Dig into the report and the growth snapshot looks worse. A measure of underlying domestic demand — which strips out swings in trade, inventory and government spending — rose at only a 1.2% rate in the second quarter, the weakest since the end of 2022. 🛒 Inflation: The Fed's go-to inflation measure rose in the final two months of the second quarter, despite moderating underlying growth. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose by 2.6% in the 12 months through June, the second consecutive increase. The gauge that excludes food and energy rose by 2.8%, ticking up slightly from May. Between the lines: The collection of data — especially the weak jobs report — strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. But inflation concerns will still be top of mind for the Fed. There are early signs that Trump's tariffs are pushing prices higher. No one knows whether those increases will be persistent. For the record: "We've been here before when there was large scale doom-mongering ... about the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and about the President's tariffs on China in the first term," Miran says. All of the "doom-mongering" turned out to be wrong, Miran said. He added that there was good reason to believe the economy would get stronger from here, citing Trump's tax and spending bill, as well as a spate of recent trade deals. The bottom line: If Trump gets the rate cut he has been yearning for, it might be for a reason he likely hates — a slowing economy.
Hamilton Spectator
01-08-2025
- Business
- Hamilton Spectator
The Latest: Markets react negatively to Trump's latest tariffs moves and weak jobs report
President Donald Trump 's latest executive order placing tariffs on many U.S. trade partners — the next step in his trade agenda that will test the global economy and alliances — says they'll go into effect in seven days, and not the Friday deadline he initially set. The extension reflects the government's need for more time to harmonize the tariff rates, according to a senior official who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity. The order applies to 66 countries , the 27-member European Union, Taiwan and the Falkland Islands. Nations not listed in the order would face a baseline 10% tariff. Here's the Latest: Trump wants Fed board to take control from Powell Trump on Friday called for the Federal Reserve's board of governors to usurp the power of Fed Chair Jerome Powell , criticizing the head of the U.S. central bank for not cutting short-term interest rates. Posting on his Truth Social platform, Trump called Powell 'stubborn.' The Fed chair has been subjected to vicious verbal attacks by the Republican president over several months. The Fed has the responsibility of stabilizing prices and maximizing employment. Powell, backed by most of the board's seven governors , has held its benchmark rate for overnight loans constant this year, saying that Fed officials needed to see what impact Trump's massive tariffs had on inflation. If Powell doesn't 'substantially' lower rates, Trump said, 'THE BOARD SHOULD ASSUME CONTROL, AND DO WHAT EVERYONE KNOWS HAS TO BE DONE!' ▶ Read more about Trump's pressure on the Fed chairman New tariffs threaten to raise inflation rates There are no signs yet that tariffs will lead to more domestic manufacturing jobs, and Friday's employment report showed the U.S. economy now has 37,000 fewer manufacturing jobs than it did in April. One crucial measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, showed Thursday that prices have climbed 2.6% over the 12 months that ended in June, a sign that price hikes may be accelerating as tariffs flow through the economy. This prospect has caused the Federal Reserve to hold off on additional rate cuts, frustrating Trump, who has called Fed Chair Jerome Powell a 'TOTAL LOSER' on his social media platform. 'There are many uncertainties left to resolve,' Powell told reporters Wednesday. 'So, yes, we are learning more and more. It doesn't feel like we're very close to the end of that process. And that's not for us to judge, but it does — it feels like there's much more to come.' For Canada, regret and disappointment Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said his government is disappointed by Trump's move to raise the U.S. tariff on goods from America's northern neighbor to 35% from 25%, effective Friday. Goods transshipped from unspecified other countries face a 40% import duty. Trump cited what he said was a lack of cooperation in stemming trafficking in illicit drugs across the northern border. He also slammed Canada's plan to recognize a Palestinian state and has expressed frustration with a trade deficit largely fueled by U.S. oil purchases. 'Canada accounts for only 1% of U.S. fentanyl imports and has been working intensively to further reduce these volumes,' Carney said in a statement. Many of Canada's exports to the U.S. are covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and face no tariff. But steel, lumber, aluminum and autos have been subject to still higher tariffs. Hiring slowed sharply in June as unemployment rate ticked higher U.S. employers added just 73,000 jobs last month and job gains for June were revised sharply lower, from 147,000 to just 14,000, the Labor Department reported Friday. It points to a much weaker job market than previously understood. Unemployment ticked higher to a still-low 4.2% from 4.1%, and the proportion of Americans working or looking for work declined again, possibly reflecting falling immigration and more deportations. Manufacturers cut jobs for the third straight month and have now reduced their payrolls by 37,000 since April. The weak data makes it more likely that Trump will get one of his most fervent desires: A cut in short-term interest rates by the Federal Reserve, which often — though not always — can lead to lower rates for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards. Investors sharply raised expectations for a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in September. Swiss pharmaceutical Roche says medications should be exempt from tariffs Swiss pharmaceuticals powerhouse Roche says it is working to ensure its patients and customers around the world have access to medications and diagnostics amid the Trump tariff war. 'While we believe pharmaceuticals and diagnostics should be exempt from tariffs to protect patient access, supply chains and ultimately future innovation, we are prepared for potential tariffs being implemented and confident in managing any impacts,' the statement said. 'With strengthened U.S. production capacity and proactive measures like inventory adjustments and tech transfer, we are working to ensure uninterrupted access to our products.' The company announced plans in April to invest $50 billion in the United States over the next five years, creating 12,000 jobs. The company already employs more than 25,000 people in the U.S. Questions swirl around the tariffs despite Trump's eagerness As the clock ticked toward Trump's self-imposed deadline, few things seemed to be settled other than the president's determination to levy the taxes he has talked about for decades. The very legality of the tariffs remains an open question as a U.S. appeals court on Thursday heard arguments on whether Trump had exceeded his authority by declaring an 'emergency' under a 1977 law to charge the tariffs, allowing him to avoid congressional approval. Attorney General Dan Rayfield of Oregon, one of the states that filed suit, asserted that the judges 'didn't buy'' the Trump administration's arguments. He said Trump's tariffs — which are paid by importers in the United States who often try to pass along the higher costs to their customers — amount to one of the largest tax increases in American history, 'done all by one human being sitting in the Oval Office.' Dozens of countries with no deals face new tariffs as trade deadline looms Some of the United States' biggest trading partners have reached agreements , or at least the outlines of one, including the European Union , the United Kingdom , and Japan . Even so, those countries face much higher tariffs than were in effect before Trump took office. Other large trading partners — most notably China and Mexico — received an extension to keep negotiating, but they will likely end up paying more. Trump orders a 35% tariff for goods from Canada, asserting a lack of cooperation on illicit drugs Trump has raised the tariff rate on U.S. imports from Canada to 35% from 25%, effective Friday. The announcement from the White House late Thursday said Canada had failed to 'do more to arrest, seize, detain or otherwise intercept ... traffickers, criminals at large, and illicit drugs.' A small amount of fentanyl is smuggled into the U.S. from Canada, much less than through other routes . U.S. customs agents seized 43 pounds (19.5 kilograms) of fentanyl at the Canadian border during the last fiscal year, compared with 21,100 pounds (9,570 kilograms) at the Mexican border. The new tariffs build off ones announced in the spring Trump initially imposed the Friday deadline after his previous 'Liberation Day' tariffs in April resulted in a stock market panic . His unusually high tariff rates then led to recession fears, prompting Trump to impose a 90-day negotiating period. When he was unable to create enough trade deals with other countries, he extended the timeline and sent out letters to world leaders that simply listed rates, prompting a slew of hasty agreements. Swiss imports will now be taxed at a higher rate, 39%, than the 31% Trump threatened in April, while Liechtenstein saw its rate slashed from 37% to 15%. Countries not listed in the Thursday night order would be charged a baseline 10% tariff. Trump negotiated trade frameworks over the past few weeks with the EU, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines, claiming victories as other nations sought to limit his threat of charging even higher tariff rates. Which countries have a trade agreement? In a flurry of last-minute deal-making, Trump announced several agreements that were short on details. On Thursday, the U.S. and Pakistan reached a trade agreement expected to allow Washington to help develop Pakistan's largely untapped oil reserves and lower tariffs for the South Asian country. And on Wednesday, Trump announced a deal with South Korea that would impose 15% tariffs on goods from that country. That is below the 25% duties that Trump threatened in April. Agreements have also been reached with the European Union, Pakistan , Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines , and the United Kingdom. The agreement with the Philippines barely reduced the tariff it will pay, from 20% to 19%. Will this next Aug. 7 deadline hold? Trump's original April 2 'Liberation Day' announcement threatened to impose import taxes of up to 50% on nearly 60 countries and economies, including the 27-nation European Union. Those duties, originally scheduled for April 9, were then postponed twice, first to July 9 and then Aug. 1. On Wednesday, Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social, 'THE AUGUST FIRST DEADLINE IS THE AUGUST FIRST DEADLINE — IT STANDS STRONG, AND WILL NOT BE EXTENDED.' Thursday afternoon, White House representatives — and Trump himself — were still insisting that no more delays were possible. But when Trump signed the order Thursday night, the start date of the punishing import taxes was pushed back seven days so that the tariff schedule could be updated. The change — while potentially welcome news to countries that had not yet reached a deal with the U.S. — injected a new dose of uncertainty for consumers and businesses still wondering what's going to happen and when. Dozens of countries with no deals face new tariffs as trade deadline looms Numerous countries around the world now face the prospect of new tariffs on their exports to the United States on Aug. 7, a potential blow to the global economy, because they haven't yet reached a trade deal with the Trump administration. Trump intends the duties to bring back manufacturing to the United States, while also forcing other countries to reduce their trade barriers to U.S. exports. Trump argues that foreign exporters will pay the cost of the tariffs, but so far economists have found that most are being paid by U.S. companies. And measures of U.S. inflation have started to tick higher as prices of imported goods, such as furniture, appliances, and toys rise. Countries without an agreement face duties ranging between 10% and 40%, according to Trump's executive order signed on Thursday. That includes large economies such as Taiwan and India, as well as many smaller countries like South Africa, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and even tiny Lesotho . ▶ Read more about the countries facing new tariffs and a new deadline Trump injects new dose of uncertainty in tariffs as he pushes start date back to Aug. 7 Trump has been promising the world economy would change on Friday with his new tariffs in place . But when Trump signed the order Thursday night imposing new tariffs, the start date of the punishing import taxes was pushed back seven days so that the tariff schedule could be updated. The change injected a new dose of uncertainty for consumers and businesses still wondering what's going to happen and when. Trump has promised that his tax hikes on the nearly $3 trillion in goods imported to the U.S. will usher in newfound wealth, launch a cavalcade of new factory jobs, reduce the budget deficits and, simply, get other countries to treat America with more respect. The vast tariffs risk jeopardizing America's global standing as allies feel forced into unfriendly deals. As taxes on the raw materials used by U.S. factories and basic goods, the tariffs also threaten to create new inflationary pressures and hamper economic growth — concerns the Trump White House has dismissed. ▶ Read more about the delay in the tariff start date Trump's new tariffs give some countries a break, while shares and US dollar sink Trump's new tariff rates of up to 41% on U.S. imports from dozens of countries drew expressions of relief Friday from some countries that negotiated a deal or managed to whittle them down from rates announced in April. Others expressed disappointment or frustration over running out of time after hitting Trump's Aug. 1 deadline for striking deals with America's trading partners. The new rates are due to take effect on Aug. 7, but uncertainty over what Trump might do next remains. The way ahead for China, which runs the largest trade surplus with the U.S., is unclear after talks earlier this week in Stockholm produced no deal . Trump has yet to say if he'll extend an Aug. 12 pause on painfully high import duties on Chinese products. Initial reaction from financial markets was muted. Benchmarks fell in Asia, with South Korea's Kospi dropping nearly 4% after the tariff rate for the U.S. ally was set at 15%. The U.S. dollar weakened against the Japanese yen, trading at more than 150 yen per dollar. ▶ Read more about the impact of Trump's new tariffs 'These are dark days,' Biden warns in blistering speech about Trump Former President Joe Biden also accused the Trump administration administration of 'doing its best to dismantle the Constitution' with the help of the Republican-controlled Congress and the Supreme Court. 'Our future is literally on the line,' Biden said in the speech to a National Bar Association convention in Chicago on the the 100th anniversary of the organization, which was founded to support Black lawyers at a time when they were excluded from the legal profession. Biden celebrated the diversity of his judicial appointments and recounted his work on civil rights throughout a five-decade political career before turning to Trump. 'In our lives, the life of our nation, there are moments so stark that they divide all that came before from everything that follows,' Biden said. 'Moments that force us to confront hard truths about ourselves, our institutions and democracy itself. We are, in my view, at such a moment in American history.' Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .
The Sun
01-08-2025
- Business
- The Sun
Ringgit opens flat against US dollar, higher versus other majors
KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit opened flat against the US dollar but rose against other major currencies, with investors still weighing the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Washington's reciprocal tariff measures, which take effect today. At 8 am, the local note stood at 4.2650/2850 against the US dollar, almost unchanged from Thursday's close of 4.2650/2730. Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid told Bernama that the newly announced tariff will likely support the ringgit and lift investor sentiment. Earlier, the United States announced a reduced tariff of 19 per cent on Malaysian imports, effective Aug 1, 2025. On July 7, US President Donald Trump said Washington would impose a 25 per cent tariff on all Malaysian products entering the country, separate from existing sectoral tariffs. The new rate, effective today, is one percentage point higher than the 24 per cent announced in April. Mohd Afzanizam noted that the US Dollar Index (DXY) continued to rise, gaining 0.15 per cent to reach 99.968 points, supported by the tariff decision and a stronger-than-expected Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which climbed to 2.6 per cent in June. He said the data suggested inflationary risks remained and could prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at its September meeting. 'Against such a backdrop, the ringgit is expected to stay soft, possibly around RM4.26. Yesterday, the ringgit weakened by 0.61 per cent to close at RM4.2690. 'It appears that, following the FOMC meeting, the US dollar gained traction as the Fed remains committed to its restrictive policy stance to contain inflation risks,' he added. At the opening, the ringgit was higher against other major currencies. It strengthened against the Japanese yen to 2.8277/8411 from 2.8443/8498 on Thursday, rose against the British pound to 5.6328/6592 from 5.6426/6532, and gained against the euro to 4.8711/8939 from 4.8766/8857. The ringgit was mixed against regional peers. It was little changed against the Philippine peso at 7.31/7.35 from 7.31/7.33 and flat against the Indonesian rupiah at 259.1/260.5 from 259.1/259.7. The local note rose against the Thai baht to 13.0169/0876 from 13.0448/0753 and strengthened versus the Singapore dollar to 3.2856/3012 from 3.2889/2953. - Bernama
The Star
01-08-2025
- Business
- The Star
Ringgit opens flat against US dollar, higher versus other majors
KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit opened flat against the US dollar but rose against other major currencies, with investors still weighing the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Washington's reciprocal tariff measures, which take effect today. At 8 am, the local note stood at 4.2650/2850 against the US dollar, almost unchanged from Thursday's close of 4.2650/2730. Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid told Bernama that the newly announced tariff will likely support the ringgit and lift investor sentiment. Earlier, the United States announced a reduced tariff of 19 per cent on Malaysian imports, effective Aug 1, 2025. On July 7, US President Donald Trump said Washington would impose a 25 per cent tariff on all Malaysian products entering the country, separate from existing sectoral tariffs. The new rate, effective today, is one percentage point higher than the 24 per cent announced in April. Mohd Afzanizam noted that the US Dollar Index (DXY) continued to rise, gaining 0.15 per cent to reach 99.968 points, supported by the tariff decision and a stronger-than-expected Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which climbed to 2.6 per cent in June. He said the data suggested inflationary risks remained and could prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at its September meeting. "Against such a backdrop, the ringgit is expected to stay soft, possibly around RM4.26. Yesterday, the ringgit weakened by 0.61 per cent to close at RM4.2690. "It appears that, following the FOMC meeting, the US dollar gained traction as the Fed remains committed to its restrictive policy stance to contain inflation risks,' he added. At the opening, the ringgit was higher against other major currencies. It strengthened against the Japanese yen to 2.8277/8411 from 2.8443/8498 on Thursday, rose against the British pound to 5.6328/6592 from 5.6426/6532, and gained against the euro to 4.8711/8939 from 4.8766/8857. The ringgit was mixed against regional peers. It was little changed against the Philippine peso at 7.31/7.35 from 7.31/7.33 and flat against the Indonesian rupiah at 259.1/260.5 from 259.1/259.7. The local note rose against the Thai baht to 13.0169/0876 from 13.0448/0753 and strengthened versus the Singapore dollar to 3.2856/3012 from 3.2889/2953. - Bernama
Politico
31-07-2025
- Business
- Politico
Playbook PM: Trump's last-minute tariff hurdles
Presented by THE CATCH-UP TRADE WARS: There are just hours to go before President Donald Trump's deadline for scores of countries to strike trade deals with the U.S. or face steep tariffs. The president has managed to bend many trading partners to his will with lopsided (if vaguely sketched) agreements — and largely sidestepped, so far, the negative economic fallout that experts had predicted. But as the clock ticks down, Trump's protectionist agenda is also facing some fresh headwinds. Inflation nation: The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, a crucial inflation data point and the Fed's preferred metric, rose to 2.6 percent annually in June, per Bloomberg. That was up from 2.4 percent in May and a tick higher than economists expected. And it indicates that the fallout from Trump's tariffs is starting to push up prices for American consumers, even before his most sweeping levies take effect. Inflation remaining stubborn even as the labor market cools will make the central bank's task more difficult. In the courts: At the same time, Trump's tariff regime faces a serious legal threat. Federal appellate judges today sounded dubious of the administration's arguments that Trump has the authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, per CNBC's Kevin Breuninger and Dan Mangan. Judges pointed out that the law doesn't mention tariffs and that Trump is claiming essentially unbounded power to declare an emergency and impose tariffs, regardless of legal restrictions on his authority. The U.S. Court of International Trade has already struck down Trump's tariffs, but that decision is paused as the legal proceedings — which could go up to the Supreme Court — play out on the merits. Not so firm: After Trump insisted there would be no extensions of his Aug. 1 deadline, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum managed to secure one nonetheless. The two leaders spoke this morning, and Trump announced afterward that the U.S.-Mexico status quo will be extended another 90 days to allow for more in-depth talks. That means 25 percent tariffs on Mexican cars and 50 percent tariffs on Mexican metals will remain in place, but Mexico avoids broader 30 percent tariffs that were due to take effect tomorrow. Trump said Mexico agreed to lower trade barriers. Still struggling for deals: South Africa's trade minister said the country was trying one more last-minute offer to reach a deal and avoid 30 percent tariffs, per Reuters. And Indian PM Narendra Modi's government is reeling from Trump's hard line on tariffs despite Modi's efforts to build a relationship with him, NYT's Mujib Mashal reports from New Delhi. The devil in the details: For industry, the specifics of how the tariffs will be implemented remain a question mark, with companies eagerly waiting for the fine print and struggling with chaos in the meantime, Bloomberg's Laura Curtis reports. And there's a corresponding lack of detail on foreign countries' pledges to make big investments in the U.S. and buy American natural gas. Also happening today: Trump will meet with Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon to talk about the economy and geopolitics, Bloomberg's Todd Gillespie and Josh Wingrove report. Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@ 9 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW 1. FITNESS FOR OFFICE: The Presidential Fitness Test is returning to American public schools. Trump plans to make the announcement as he builds out a presidential sports, fitness and nutrition council in an executive order this afternoon, CNN's Alayna Treene and Kyle Feldscher scooped. He'll be joined at the White House by Harrison Butker, Bryson DeChambeau, Annika Sörenstam, Lawrence Taylor and other pro athletes. HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will lead the revival of the fitness challenge, as part of an effort to bolster children's health. 2. THE PEACEMAKER: Trump's involvement was pivotal in getting Thailand and Cambodia to back down from a deadly border clash, Reuters' Panu Wongcha-um and Poppy Mcpherson scooped. It was Trump's call to acting Thai PM Phumtham Wechayachai that managed to break through a deadlock where Malaysian and Chinese efforts had fallen short. (Cambodia had already gotten on board with ceasefire talks.) Trump urged Thailand to meet with Cambodia and threatened to stall progress on trade deals if they didn't stop the conflict. The truce is holding for now, though tensions remain high. 3. NO PEACE HERE: As Gaza's humanitarian catastrophe worsens, special envoy Steve Witkoff is in Israel for talks, but Trump still hasn't gotten Israel and Hamas to agree to a ceasefire. Ninety-one more Palestinians have been killed while trying to get aid within just the past day, the Gaza Health Ministry said, per the AP. But Trump made clear that he places the onus on Hamas: 'The fastest way to end the Humanitarian Crises in Gaza is for Hamas to SURRENDER AND RELEASE THE HOSTAGES!!!' he wrote on Truth Social this morning. And the U.S. slapped new sanctions on Palestinian officials, saying they were obstructing peace, per Reuters. 4. THE CHILLING EFFECT: 'How Trump's crackdown on law firms is undermining legal defenses for the vulnerable,' by Reuters' Mike Spector and colleagues: '[T]he aftershocks threaten lasting damage to America's tradition of mobilizing free lawyers to challenge government actions on behalf of the vulnerable. … Dozens of major law firms, wary of political retaliation, have scaled back pro bono work, diversity initiatives and litigation that could place them in conflict with the Trump administration, a Reuters investigation found. Many firms are making a strategic calculation: withdraw from pro bono work frowned on by Trump, or risk becoming the next target.' 5. STAT OF THE DAY: The number of federal employees who took the Trump administration's deferred resignation offer — and are now getting a salary not to work — is greater than 154,000, WaPo's Meryl Kornfield and colleagues scooped. That's about 6.7 percent of the workforce. They'll leave government at the end of the fiscal or calendar year, a pivotal piece of Trump's drive to significantly shrink the civil service. Critics say this is government inefficiency in action, though the administration argues that it will save money on salary costs in the long run. 6. WHAT HAPPENED AT CECOT: ''Welcome to hell': Inside the mega prison where the U.S. deported migrants,' by WaPo's Samantha Schmidt and colleagues: '[Sixteen] Venezuelans, rounded up in President Donald Trump's mass deportation campaign, told The Post they were subjected to repeated beatings that left them bruised, bleeding or injured. They said prison staff restricted medical care for detainees suffering from diabetes, high blood pressure or kidney failure.' The Salvadoran government didn't respond for comment. One attorney said this 'may have violated U.N. conventions against torture,' and an international jurist said the International Criminal Court should investigate. 7. GOING NUCLEAR: Amid clashes with Democrats over stalling tactics to confirm Trump's picks, more and more Senate Republicans want to use a nuclear option to limit debate time for nominees, Semafor's Burgess Everett scooped. Regardless of whether the parties reach a deal to confirm some nominees before the August recess, the GOP could go there in the fall, as Trump and Republican senators grow frustrated with the hold-ups. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Republicans would prefer to make rules changes with Democrats, with considering nominations en bloc as one potential idea, per POLITICO's Jordain Carney. 8. 2026 WATCH: Gallup has more data confirming the strange contradiction for the Democratic Party these days: More Americans consider themselves Democrats or Dem-leaning than Republican/GOP-leaning for the first time in more than a year. But at the same time, perceptions of the Democratic Party have hit a record low, and Americans believe the GOP is better suited to bring changes the U.S. needs. At the same time, Americans for Prosperity is launching a $6 million ad campaign to promote the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, POLITICO's Andrew Howard scooped. Golden State warriors: In the end, Kamala Harris opted against a California gubernatorial run for the simple reason that her 'heart wasn't in it,' POLITICO's Melanie Mason reports. With Harris out, the Democratic primary is now wide open — and our California Playbook colleagues Dustin Gardiner and Blake Jones break down where it stands at the outset. Former Rep. Katie Porter could be a top beneficiary of Harris' decision, having performed strongly in some initial polling. But many other contenders, including Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, could mount strong bids, and Rick Caruso remains a wild card. 9. SIGN OF THE TIMES: The country's beliefs about race and diversity look significantly different now than during the 2020 racial reckoning, AP's Terry Tang and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux report from a new AP/NORC center survey. 'The new poll finds 45% of U.S. adults think Black people face high levels of discrimination, down from 60% in the spring of 2021. There was a similar drop in views about the prevalence of serious discrimination against Asian people, which fell from 45% in the 2021 poll … to 32% … [L]ess than half of Americans think DEI has a benefit for the people it's intended to help.' TALK OF THE TOWN Josh Hawley said Donald Trump opposed his stock trading ban because other senators told him the bill would make him sell Mar-a-Lago. BOOK CLUB — Kamala Harris is publishing a memoir, '107 Days,' about her abbreviated presidential campaign, per AP's Hillel Italie. Simon & Schuster is putting the book out Sept. 23. In an announcement video, Harris said, 'I've spent a lot of time reflecting on those days and with candor and reflection, I've written a behind-the-scenes account of that journey.' Harris will also appear on 'The Late Show with Stephen Colbert' tonight for her first interview since leaving office, per POLITICO's Melanie Mason. PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — 'Sneaking Into the Spy Museum's New Vault,' by NYT's Sopan Deb: 'For years, the more than 10,000 items in the International Spy Museum's collection were stored at a location outside Washington. That changed this summer.' OUT AND ABOUT — Mike Davis and Otto and Mia Heck hosted a celebration honoring newly confirmed U.S. Circuit Judge Emil Bove last night at Butterworth's. SPOTTED: Sarah Samis, Sens. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.), Todd and Kristine Blanche, Chad Mizelle, John Sauer, Elliot Gaiser, Jeanine Pirro, Aakash Singh, Ed Martin, Brendan Chestnut, Paul Perkins, David Warrington, Sergio Gor, Gineen Bresso, Steve and Gabi Kenny, Gary Lawkowski, Jacob Reses, Sean Cooksey, Mark and Tricia Paoletta, Jeff Clark, Andrew Ferguson, Gary Barnett, Lucas Croslow, Brendan Carr, Megan Owen, Jennifer and Nick Davis, Ryan Giles, Katie and Bill Lane, Laura Ingraham, Steve Bannon, Jack Posobiec, Alex Swoyer, Caroline Wren, Rachel Brand and Jonathan Cohn, Jill Kozeny, Jason Van Beek, Kat Nikas, Michael Thielen, Bill McGinley, Don McGahn, Rob Luther, James Burnham, Derek and Liz Lyons, Will Levi, Rob Zink and Lanny Davis. TRANSITIONS — Goldman Sachs' top lobbyist, Michael Paese, is leaving the role and will be a senior adviser to the firm, as Republican Michael Thompson replaces him as chief global lobbyist, Bloomberg's Todd Gillespie reports. … Melissa Winter will be a senior adviser to the Obamas' family foundation as the Obama Presidential Center gets ready to open, POLITICO's Shia Kapos reports. She previously was the longtime chief of staff for Michelle Obama. … Raffetto Herman Strategic Communications has added Pheniece Jones as a principal consultant and Christiaan Brown as an SVP. Jones most recently was VP and head of media at the Curley Company. Brown previously was VP of corporate comms and brand at Accolade. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@ or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
