Latest news with #PictetAssetManagement
Bloomberg
4 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe 06/05/2025
Bloomberg Daybreak Europe is your essential morning viewing to stay ahead. Live from London, we set the agenda for your day, catching you up with overnight markets news from the US and Asia. And we'll tell you what matters for investors in Europe, giving you insight before trading begins. Today's guest: Sabrina Kanniche, Senior Economist at Pictet Asset Management (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
7 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Carry Trades Roar Back as Emerging Market Currencies Gain
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging market carry trades are taking off again, as currency volatility subsides amid signs President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs may not get fully enacted. Billionaire Steve Cohen Wants NY to Expand Taxpayer-Backed Ferry Where the Wild Children's Museums Are Now With Colorful Blocks, Tirana's Pyramid Represents a Changing Albania The Economic Benefits of Paying Workers to Move NYC Congestion Toll Brings In $216 Million in First Four Months An index of carry returns — for which a trader borrows in a low-yielding currency and then invests in another offering higher returns, hit a seven-year high in late May. Asset managers have boosted long positions in developing-nation currencies in recent weeks, with those on Mexico's peso reaching a nine-month high, based on CME Group Inc. data. 'Carry trades at this juncture, they do make sense,' said Ali Bora Yigitbasioglu, a senior investment manager for fixed income at Pictet Asset Management in London. Given the White House has eased off some of its aggressive trade policies, 'the carry currencies are definitely poised to benefit,' he said. The strategy — which performs best in periods of low volatility — became very popular from about 2020 with most trades funded in the ultra-low-yielding yen. Those positions were suddenly upended in August following a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike that triggered a surge in the currency. Sentiment toward carry trades has been re-energized in recent weeks as global trade tensions have eased. A gauge of global currency volatility compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. dropped to 8.7% on Friday from as high as 11% in early April. Pictet's Yigitbasioglu said his favorite carry-trade targets include the Chilean peso and South Korean won, which is likely to appreciate after the country elects a new president on June 3. The carry trade has been generating an increasing number of headlines recently in Asia. The Taiwan dollar surged in early May as gains in the currency led to a rush to exit positions using it as a funding currency. The Hong Kong dollar slid to the weak end of its trading band in late May as falling local interest rates led traders to use it as a funding vehicle. The outlook for further monetary-policy easing in China means the yuan too 'is becoming a very attractive funding currency,' said Ju Wang, head of Greater China foreign-exchange & rates strategy at BNP Paribas SA in Hong Kong. Moderating inflation in many emerging-market economies means that real yields on their bonds are relatively attractive. That's one reason why Brazil's real features high on the list of attractive longs at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and ING Groep NV. Goldman Sachs sees the current state of global markets as beneficial for carry trades, and considers both the dollar and Swiss franc attractive as funding currencies 'The best environment for carry trade is often the 'not too hot not too cold' economic environment,' said Kamakshya Trivedi, the bank's head of global foreign exchange and interest rates research. One drawback of using the dollar to fund carry trades is the fact US interest rates are relatively high. But a number of high-yielding currencies in Latin America may still perform well, according to RBC BlueBay Asset Management. 'We think funding emerging-market longs out of US dollars is the most sensible at this point,' said Anthony Kettle, the firm's senior portfolio manager in London. 'The trend is in place for the dollar to weaken.' Still, with the European Central Bank almost certain to lower borrowing costs for an eighth time this week, the euro has its appeal. 'There's probably some downside to euro until June, so I'm happy to use it as a funder for now,' said Wim Vandenhoeck, a senior portfolio manager at Invesco Ltd., referring to his tactical trade of going long the South African rand. He also has positions favoring the Brazilian real and Turkish lira funded in dollars, he said. Key events to watch this week: June 1: Final round of Poland's presidential election; Mexicans elect federal judges as part of a judicial overhaul June 2: Hungary GDP; South Africa GDP; China Caixin manufacturing PMI June 3: South Koreans vote for a new president after Yoon Suk-yeol was ousted following his imposition of military rule June 4: Poland rate decision; South Korea GDP, CPI June 5: Brazil trade data;, China Caixin services PMI; CPI data for Taiwan, Thailand and Philippines June 6: Rate decisions in India, Russia; Chile CPI --With assistance from Srinivasan Sivabalan, Iris Ouyang and Masaki Kondo. (Updates with Kettle's view on dollar depreciation from 12th paragraph. An earlier version of was corrected to clarify Trivedi's job title in the 11th paragraph.) YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? Trump Considers Deporting Migrants to Rwanda After the UK Decides Not To Will Small Business Owners Knock Down Trump's Mighty Tariffs? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
02-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Carry Trades Roar Back as Emerging Market Currencies Gain
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging market carry trades are taking off again, as currency volatility subsides amid signs President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs may not get fully enacted. Billionaire Steve Cohen Wants NY to Expand Taxpayer-Backed Ferry Where the Wild Children's Museums Are The Economic Benefits of Paying Workers to Move Now With Colorful Blocks, Tirana's Pyramid Represents a Changing Albania NYC Congestion Toll Brings In $216 Million in First Four Months An index of carry returns — for which a trader borrows in a low-yielding currency and then invests in another offering higher returns, hit a seven-year high in late May. Asset managers have boosted long positions in developing-nation currencies in recent weeks, with those on Mexico's peso reaching a nine-month high, based on CME Group Inc. data. 'Carry trades at this juncture, they do make sense,' said Ali Bora Yigitbasioglu, a senior investment manager for fixed income at Pictet Asset Management in London. Given the White House has eased off some of its aggressive trade policies, 'the carry currencies are definitely poised to benefit,' he said. The strategy — which performs best in periods of low volatility — became very popular from about 2020 with most trades funded in the ultra-low-yielding yen. Those positions were suddenly upended in August following a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike that triggered a surge in the currency. Sentiment toward carry trades has been re-energized in recent weeks as global trade tensions have eased. A gauge of global currency volatility compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. dropped to 8.7% on Friday from as high as 11% in early April. Pictet's Yigitbasioglu said his favorite carry-trade targets include the Chilean peso and South Korean won, which is likely to appreciate after the country elects a new president on June 3. The carry trade has been generating an increasing number of headlines recently in Asia. The Taiwan dollar surged in early May as gains in the currency led to a rush to exit positions using it as a funding currency. The Hong Kong dollar slid to the weak end of its trading band in late May as falling local interest rates led traders to use it as a funding vehicle. The outlook for further monetary-policy easing in China means the yuan too 'is becoming a very attractive funding currency,' said Ju Wang, head of Greater China foreign-exchange & rates strategy at BNP Paribas SA in Hong Kong. Moderating inflation in many emerging-market economies means that real yields on their bonds are relatively attractive. That's one reason why Brazil's real features high on the list of attractive longs at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and ING Groep NV. Goldman Sachs sees the current state of global markets as beneficial for carry trades, and considers both the dollar and Swiss franc attractive as funding currencies 'The best environment for carry trade is often the 'not too hot not too cold' economic environment,' said Kamakshya Trivedi, the bank's head of global foreign exchange and interest rates. One drawback of using the dollar to fund carry trades is the fact US interest rates are relatively high. But the prospect of further dollar weakness means a number of high-yielding currencies in Latin America may perform well, according to RBC BlueBay Asset Management. 'We think funding emerging-market longs out of US dollars is the most sensible at this point,' said Anthony Kettle, the firm's senior portfolio manager in London. Still, with the European Central Bank almost certain to lower borrowing costs for an eighth time this week, the euro has its appeal. 'There's probably some downside to euro until June, so I'm happy to use it as a funder for now,' said Wim Vandenhoeck, a senior portfolio manager at Invesco Ltd., referring to his tactical trade of going long the South African rand. He also has positions favoring the Brazilian real and Turkish lira funded in dollars, he said. Key events to watch this week: June 1: Final round of Poland's presidential election; Mexicans elect federal judges as part of a judicial overhaul June 2: Hungary GDP; South Africa GDP; China Caixin manufacturing PMI June 3: South Koreans vote for a new president after Yoon Suk-yeol was ousted following his imposition of military rule June 4: Poland rate decision; South Korea GDP, CPI June 5: Brazil trade data;, China Caixin services PMI; CPI data for Taiwan, Thailand and Philippines June 6: Rate decisions in India, Russia; Chile CPI --With assistance from Srinivasan Sivabalan, Iris Ouyang and Masaki Kondo. (Updates with Goldman quote from tenth paragraph) YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? Will Small Business Owners Knock Down Trump's Mighty Tariffs? Trump Considers Deporting Migrants to Rwanda After the UK Decides Not To ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
S&P 500 Has Jumped 14% Since Trump Said ‘Great Time to Buy'
(Bloomberg) -- Investors who followed President Donald Trump's advice on social media in the past month have enjoyed one of the biggest rallies in the S&P 500 under his leadership. A New Central Park Amenity, Tailored to Its East Harlem Neighbors As Trump Reshapes Housing Policy, Renters Face Rollback of Rights What's Behind the Rise in Serious Injuries on New York City's Streets? NYC Warns of 17% Drop in Foreign Tourists Due to Trump Policies LA Mayor Credits Trump on Fire Aid, Stays Wary on Immigration Having slumped on Trump's 'liberation day' tariff announcement, the benchmark rose 14% in the month after he said it was 'a great time to buy' on April 9 — hours before he paused some of the harshest levies in a century. He reiterated that on May 8, telling reporters the economic outlook warranted piling into stocks. It's the S&P 500's best advance under both his presidential terms on a 21-day rolling basis — the number of trading days between the two comments — according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The data exclude Covid-era rebounds. 'It's clear that the Trump put is back in play,' said Arun Sai, senior multi-asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management. 'But we wouldn't read too much into it. Yes, it's peculiar in the form that he's doing it, but ultimately this is the market pricing in a kind of backstop from the White House.' Days after Trump's second recommendation to buy stocks, Washington and Beijing said on Monday they would temporarily slash tariffs on each other's products, unleashing a 4.2% rally in Nasdaq 100 futures. S&P 500 contracts jumped as much as 3.3%. While it's unusual for world leaders to issue financial advice on social media platforms, Trump's first term was also characterized by incessant tweets and threats to slap tariffs and sanctions on key trading partners. His posts became a must-read for investors globally. This time around, the president has taken to instructing markets just before key policy reversals. The S&P 500 had plummeted 12% in the four days to April 8 on fears about a global trade war. Trump — who had widely linked his political fortunes to equities in his first term — had repeatedly insisted that his policies wouldn't be influenced by market moves. However, on April 9, he announced a 90-day reprieve in the harshest tariffs for most countries. US Border Towns Are Being Ravaged by Canada's Furious Boycott How the Lizard King Built a Reptile Empire Selling $50,000 Geckos Maybe AI Slop Is Killing the Internet, After All With the New York Liberty, Clara Wu Tsai Aims for the First $1 Billion Women's Sports Franchise The Recession Chatter Is Getting Louder. Watch These Metrics ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
Zawya
30-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Investors seek new tariff-proof market niches as Wall Street chaos hits Europe
LONDON - Investors who rushed out of Wall Street during a month of U.S. policy shocks that raised European growth risks are turning their attention to niche markets such as Latin American currencies and gold mining stocks in a new bid to out-run trade angst. After President Donald Trump's April 2 Liberation Day bombshell pummelled domestic stocks and the dollar , European equities that initially attracted capital fleeing the U.S. have been hit by a surging euro that threatens exports. As Trump's budget plans rock confidence further and European industry braces for a deluge of cheap Chinese imports, investors running large global portfolios said traditionally volatile emerging markets and esoteric credit felt relatively safe, for now. "We expect the riskiness or volatility of emerging market assets and developed market assets to converge," said Pictet Asset Management multi-asset co-head Shaniel Ramjee. He had bought Brazilian local currency debt and Australian and Canadian gold mining shares this month, he said, and believed emerging market stocks would win over Europe as funds continued flowing out of the U.S. Principal Asset Management's fixed income CIO Mike Goosay said that with traditional havens like U.S. Treasuries under stress, securitised debt, private credit and emerging market bonds offered "attractive risk-adjusted opportunities." SLIM PICKINGS Investors long used to herding into U.S. assets now lack consensus about what to favour instead, a JPMorgan survey of 1,000 attendees at last week's IMF/World Bank meetings showed, with a quarter picking cash as their preferred asset. Emerging markets were the next most popular choice, despite the strong blows U.S. recessions can deal to developing nations. As Wall Street shares slump to their third straight monthly loss, the dollar hits three-year lows and the euro's 10% rise in two months halts a European equity rally , smaller markets usually considered higher risk are booming. Mexican stocks rose almost 14% in April after initially dropping on Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement and as traders wagered on the nation escaping White House's ire, which is currently focused on China. An almost 3% April gain has pulled a Latin American currency index 12% higher year-to-date. Fidelity International portfolio manager Ian Samson said he expected U.S. assets to stay "very, very volatile," while Europe's growth prospects were fading and stock market valuations were no longer cheap. Bank of America estimates European shares, down 2% in April, may drop another 10% in coming months. Samson named India, where improving U.S. trade relations are attracting overseas investors despite growing tensions with Pakistan, as his favoured global market. Aberdeen investment director Gabriel Sacks said he liked Saudi Arabian shares, up 6% in the past three weeks after Trump imposed a minimum 10% tariff on the oil producing kingdom. STRESSED HAVENS Japan's yen gained more than 4% against the dollar this month, gold hit a record $3,500 an ounce on April 22 and Germany's 10-year government bond yield fell to about 195 basis points below comparable Treasuries days ago. "The scale of the money coming out (of the U.S.) is too large for the safe havens the money is going into, Goshawk Asset Management portfolio manager Simon Edelsten said. The supply of high-rated non-U.S. government bonds is near record lows, meaning the euro would keep rising, Morgan Stanley strategists said. "(Euro) appreciation will exacerbate the negative impact of higher tariffs on demand for exports, worsening the growth outlook," Invesco senior fixed income manager Michael Siviter said. BNP Paribas Asset Management senior cross-asset strategist Sophie Huynh said bets on the Swiss National Bank moving to weaken the franc and the yen's bounce had turned into "widow-making trades." She was also unenthusiastic about major equity markets excepting China, where stocks have jumped about 5% in three weeks as investors pinned their hopes on government stimulus . But after a month of global markets spinning in new directions with every shift in White House rhetoric, the fervour about European defence spending that gripped investors until late March could return, some investors said. "My base case is that the U.S. policy mix that is in place today is different in a few months' time," Ninety One multi-asset credit manager Justin Jewell said. "And simultaneously, a global desire to invest less in the U.S. is for Europe surely a good outcome."
