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Business Standard
21-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Outlook for India is one of cautious optimism, says the RBI report
Amid uncertainties in the global economy due to tariff wars and weak consumer sentiments, the Indian economy is exhibiting resilience with various high frequency indicators of industrial and services sectors sustaining their momentum in April, the monthly state of the economy report of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said. The optimism on domestic growth, along with the news of a temporary freeze on tariff measures by the US, led to a significant recovery of financial markets by mid-April, the report said. It also observed the domestic equity market, which declined initially in response to the tariff announcements by the US, gained momentum in the second half of April in the wake of robust corporate earnings reports for the Jan-March period by some banking and financial sector companies. 'The global economic outlook remains clouded amidst shifting policy landscapes and lingering vulnerabilities. In the midst of these uncertainties, the outlook for India is one of cautious optimism,' the report, authored by RBI staffers, with the guidance of deputy governor Poonam Gupta, said. It is clarified that views expressed in the report are not of the central bank's. Citing IMF projections of April 2025, the report noted India is projected to remain the fastest growing major economy in 2025 and is likely to surpass Japan this year to become the world's fourth largest economy. It further said that the inflation pressure has eased significantly and is poised for a durable alignment with the target in 2025-26. 'The prospects of bumper rabi harvest and the outlook of an above normal monsoon would further strengthen rural consumption and is also likely to keep food inflation in check. Consumers and businesses remain confident, supportive for a strengthening of economic activity,' it said. The report pointed out that in the midst of global trade realignments and industrial policy shifts, India is increasingly positioned to function as a 'connector country' that can become a key intermediary in sectors such as technology, digital services and pharmaceuticals. 'Going forward, notwithstanding the daunting challenges in the horizon, India stands well-positioned to navigate the ongoing global headwinds with confidence, ready to harness emerging opportunities and consolidate its role as a key driver of global growth,' it said. Highlighting that the benign headline inflation movements were primarily driven by the substantial easing of food prices seen since last winter, the report noted that core inflation (CPI excluding food and fuel inflation) movements continued to be disproportionately impacted by the highly elevated gold prices. 'Excluding its impact, underlying inflation pressures too remained muted,' it said. The report said that inflation pressure has eased significantly and is poised for a durable alignment with the target in 2025-26. 'Consumers and businesses remain confident, supportive for a strengthening of economic activity' it added.


Time of India
21-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India likely to drive global growth, benign home inflation strengthens RBI's rate cut hopes
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel India is poised to consolidate its role as a key driver of global growth amid disruptions due to global trade realignments, while domestic inflation is set for a durable alignment with the central bank target, the Reserve Bank of India said in its state of economy inflation outlook by central bank researchers reinforces the expectation of at least two more policy rate cuts this year, in addition to the 50 basis points repo rate reduction since February."Inflation pressure has eased significantly and is poised for a durable alignment with the target in 2025-26. The prospects of bumper rabi harvest and the outlook of an above-normal monsoon would further strengthen rural consumption and is also likely to keep food inflation in check," the RBI report inflation for the financial year 2025-26 is projected at 4 per cent, with Q1 at 3.6 per cent, Q2 at 3.9 per cent, Q3 at 3.8 per cent; and Q4 at 4.4 per the prospect of India's economy, RBI researchers said: "Notwithstanding the daunting challenges in the horizon,India stands well-positioned to navigate the ongoing global headwinds with confidence, ready to harness emerging opportunities and consolidate its role as a key driver of global growth."The state of report was penned by the central bank researchers while they acknowledged the comments and guidance given by new deputy governor Poonam Gupta. RBI maintains that the views expressed are that of the to projections by the International Monetary Fund in April, India is projected to remain the fastest growing major economy in 2025 and is likely to surpass Japan this year to become the world's fourth largest economy."In the midst of global trade realignments and industrial policy shifts, India is increasingly positioned to function as a 'connector country' that can become a key intermediary in sectors such as technology, digital services and pharmaceuticals," they authors opined that the Indian economy gets strength from its monetary, financial and political stability as well as policy consistency and congenial business environment. Strong macroeconomic fundamentals along with a transparent, rule-based and forward-looking policy ecosystem ring-fenced the banks' credit growth moderated to 10.9 per cent as on May 2, 2025 against 15.9 per cent a year ago due to weaker momentum and unfavourable base effect.


Time of India
17-05-2025
- Time of India
FIR against 2 Haryana officials for embezzlement of pension funds
1 2 Chandigarh: The UT police booked two Haryana officials for their alleged involvement in the embezzlement of Rs 25 lakh. As per the FIR, the accused embezzled the pension fund of the Haryana govt. Sector 17 police are investigating the matter. The investigation by the pension and IT branches found that the accused, Poonam Gupta, a system analyst, was responsible for maintaining the IT branch's data. Also, she was involved in transferring pension and arrears to beneficiaries' bank accounts under various social security pension schemes run by the Haryana department. On May 13, Parvesh Kumar, a programmer working in the IT branch, informed the authorities that Poonam Gupta allegedly transferred arrears to fake bank accounts. The committee found that these fake accounts, into which Poonam Gupta transferred the arrears, were linked to the IDs of deceased beneficiaries. The initial investigation indicated that Poonam Gupta, in collusion with Joginder Singh, a clerk in the audit branch, allegedly embezzled govt funds amounting to lakhs. It also appeared that this embezzlement was ongoing for a long time, as it was discovered that large sums were transferred to the bank account of Saroj Singh, wife of Joginder Singh, by Poonam Gupta. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Scam Exposed: What They Won't Tell You about zero trust! Expertinspector Click Here Undo The committee examined Joginder Singh's bank accounts and found that a joint account with his wife, at SBI, Ambala Cantt, received Rs 18,95,000 via PFMS from Dec 2024 to May 13. Also, Rs 6,30,000 was transferred to Saroj Singh's account in May 2025. It was also noted that Joginder Singh's salary was deposited into his SBI account, which was linked to the embezzled funds. The investigation revealed that Poonam Gupta and Joginder Singh allegedly embezzled approximately Rs 25,25,000 through collusion. The Haryana officials filed a complaint at Sector 17 police station, and police registered a case under the relevant sections of BNS and started a probe. The Haryana govt terminated the services of Poonam Gupta and suspended Joginder Singh. Chandigarh: The UT police booked two Haryana officials for their alleged involvement in the embezzlement of Rs 25 lakh. As per the FIR, the accused embezzled the pension fund of the Haryana govt. Sector 17 police are investigating the matter. The investigation by the pension and IT branches found that the accused, Poonam Gupta, a system analyst, was responsible for maintaining the IT branch's data. Also, she was involved in transferring pension and arrears to beneficiaries' bank accounts under various social security pension schemes run by the Haryana department. On May 13, Parvesh Kumar, a programmer working in the IT branch, informed the authorities that Poonam Gupta allegedly transferred arrears to fake bank accounts. The committee found that these fake accounts, into which Poonam Gupta transferred the arrears, were linked to the IDs of deceased beneficiaries. The initial investigation indicated that Poonam Gupta, in collusion with Joginder Singh, a clerk in the audit branch, allegedly embezzled govt funds amounting to lakhs. It also appeared that this embezzlement was ongoing for a long time, as it was discovered that large sums were transferred to the bank account of Saroj Singh, wife of Joginder Singh, by Poonam Gupta. The committee examined Joginder Singh's bank accounts and found that a joint account with his wife, at SBI, Ambala Cantt, received Rs 18,95,000 via PFMS from Dec 2024 to May 13. Also, Rs 6,30,000 was transferred to Saroj Singh's account in May 2025. It was also noted that Joginder Singh's salary was deposited into his SBI account, which was linked to the embezzled funds. The investigation revealed that Poonam Gupta and Joginder Singh allegedly embezzled approximately Rs 25,25,000 through collusion. The Haryana officials filed a complaint at Sector 17 police station, and police registered a case under the relevant sections of BNS and started a probe. The Haryana govt terminated the services of Poonam Gupta and suspended Joginder Singh.


United News of India
03-05-2025
- Business
- United News of India
Dr Poonam Gupta takes over as Dy Governor of RBI
Mumbai, May 3 (UNI) Poonam Gupta has taken over as the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The government appointed her as Deputy Governor on April 2, 2025 for a period of three years from the date of assumption of charge or until further orders, whichever is earlier. As Deputy Governor, Dr Gupta will take charge of the monetary policy department, financial markets operations department, economic and policy research department, department of financial stability, international department, department of statistics and information management, corporate strategy and Budget department and department of communications. Prior to this appointment, Dr Gupta was the Director General of the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), dealing with issues related to economic development, international financial architecture, central banking, macro economic stability, public debt and state finance. She also served as a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister and Convener of the Advisory Council of the 16th Finance Commission. Prior to joining NCAER, Dr. Gupta held senior positions at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank for nearly two decades. Dr. Gupta also taught at the Delhi School of Economics, University of Maryland (USA) and also served as a visiting faculty at the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Delhi. She has been an RBI Chair Professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) and a Professor at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER). Dr. Gupta has published several research papers and authored an edited book 'Emerging Giants: China and India in the World Economy'. She holds a Master's degree and PhD in Economics from the University of Maryland, USA, and a Master's degree in Economics from the Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi. UNI GNK PRS

Business Standard
02-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Poonam Gupta takes charge as RBI Deputy Governor, to join MPC in June
Poonam Gupta will oversee Monetary Policy, Research and Financial Stability departments at RBI and joins MPC as India debates targeting core versus headline inflation Anupreksha Jain Poonam Gupta has assumed charge as Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), where she will oversee key departments including Monetary Policy, Economic and Policy Research, Statistics and Information Management, and Financial Stability, among others. She will also be part of the monetary policy committee (MPC) in the June meeting. MPC has already cut policy rates by 50 basis points (bps) from 6.5 per cent to 6 per cent. In April, Gupta was appointed as Deputy Governor by the Centre, following the end of Michael Patra's term in January this year. Patra had previously headed the Monetary Policy Department, and after his departure, Deputy Governor M. Rajeshwar Rao temporarily took charge of the department. Prior to Gupta's appointment as Deputy Governor, she was Director General of the National Council of Applied Economic Research. Gupta, who specialises in macroeconomics and issues related to the Emerging Market Economies, takes up her new role at a time when there is a debate raging if the RBI should target core inflation instead of headline inflation. Headline inflation spikes mainly due to food prices and it is argued by some that monetary policy tools are not effective to have any impact on supply-side issues. Gupta, in an August 2024 joint NCAER paper with Barry Eichengreen, Distinguished Professor of Economics and Political Science at University of California, Berkeley, argued that evidence suggested that the inflation targeting framework in the last eight years pointed to improved outcomes with inflation becoming lower and less volatile, inflation expectations better anchored, and the transmission of monetary policy more effective.