Latest news with #PublicPolicyPolling
Yahoo
17-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Pollster Tom Jensen on NC voters' attitudes and how it might impact the 2026 elections
Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen (Courtesy photo) The second Trump administration is well underway and already bringing a healthy measure of chaos and controversy to the political scene. So, what are North Carolina voters thinking about all this? Are they supportive of what President Trump and Elon Musk are doing, or do they have concerns? And what about North Carolina politicians? How are they faring in the new environment? North Carolina's senior U.S. senator, Thom Tillis, is expected to be at the top of the Republican ballot in 2026 and what are his prospects for reelection? And how is new Gov. Josh Stein faring? Recently NC Newsline explored all of these questions and some others in a conversation with one of our nation's top pollsters, the director of Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling, Tom Jensen. Click here to listen to the full interview with PPP polling director Tom Jensen.
Yahoo
11-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Democrats eager for Cooper Senate bid in North Carolina
Democrats are eager to see former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) jump into the Tar Heel State's Senate race next year, seeing him as the most formidable challenger to Sen. Thom Tillis (R). Cooper said at the conclusion of his second term as governor that he would look at running for Senate as one of several options ahead of him, and speculation of him getting into the race has only risen since then, with the head of Senate Democrats' campaign arm reportedly praising him to donors. A popular two-term governor of the purple state, Cooper would bring name ID to a race in a state where Democrats haven't held a Senate seat in a decade and that President Trump won by 3 points in 2024. 'If Roy Cooper decides to run, it would really make the race one of the most competitive races in the country next year, could be the most of any Senate race in the country,' said Democratic strategist Doug Wilson. Tillis won reelection in 2020 with a less than 2-point edge in what was the most expensive Senate race in the country that year. Higher up on the ballot, Trump narrowly beat former President Biden in the battleground. This cycle, Tillis is on track to be one of the most vulnerable Senate incumbents, facing potentially tough competition from both sides of the aisle. He was among several Republican incumbents who faced pressure from the right over Trump's controversial Cabinet nominees — and, now that he's voted to confirm them, Democrats see a more promising pickup opportunity. A March report from the left-leaning Public Policy Polling found Tillis with a dismal approval rating of 25 percent, compared to a 48 percent approval rating for Trump. And the Republican was trailing Cooper in a hypothetical Senate match-up, 47 percent to 43 percent. A December poll from the Florida-based firm Victory Insights found Lara Trump, the president's daughter-in-law, would 'likely crush' Tillis in a GOP primary, though she hasn't expressed formal interest in the role. In a head-to-head with Cooper, Tillis trailed by 1 point. The map of Senate seats up for grabs in 2026 also will send more eyes to Tillis. Democrats have relatively few serious pickup opportunities next year, making the North Carolina race, along with the one in Maine for Sen. Susan Collins's (R) seat, key to Democratic hopes of cutting into the 53-seat Republican Senate majority. The Cook Political Report rates the race as 'lean Republican' but notes Cooper is 'Democrats' dream candidate to challenge Sen. Thom Tillis, and were he to run, Tillis would immediately become the most endangered GOP incumbent of the cycle.' Democrats acknowledged the difficulty Cooper could face in the race. Wilson noted voters in the state recently have tended to vote Republican for federal offices and Democratic for state-level offices. The Tar Heel State has gone red in every presidential race since 2012, and both its Senate seats have been held by the GOP since Tillis won his first term in 2014. But Cooper narrowly ousted then-incumbent Gov. Pat McCrory (R) in a tight 2016 race that took a month to call and has become a bright spot for Democrats in the battleground. He bested his Trump-endorsed Republican challenger in 2020 by more than 4 points and, in a sign of his potency in the party, he was floated in the veepstakes to join former Vice President Kamala Harris on the 2024 White House ticket. He withdrew himself from consideration, though, contending it was 'just not the right time for me or my state.' Now that he's left office, Cooper is set to start an eight-week teaching job at the Harvard School of Public Health in late March. Wilson pointed to former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan's (R) unsuccessful run for Senate against Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D) last year despite being a widely popular governor in a blue state. But North Carolina is a much more competitive state. 'If anybody could do it, I think [Cooper] would have a good shot,' he said. Aimy Steele, a former Democratic North Carolina state House candidate who runs the New North Carolina Project, which works to drive Black and brown voter turnout, said she would expect boosted turnout from minority voters based on Cooper's record as governor. 'He's someone that everyone can see themselves supporting not only Black and brown people, but also white people, people who are just a diverse background, regardless of their race,' she said. Cooper performed particularly well with Black voters in his 2020 reelection campaign, winning 92 percent of their votes, according to a CNN exit poll. Cynthia Wallace, who leads a nonprofit working to boost rural turnout called the New Rural Project, noted that Cooper is originally from a rural area and demonstrated an 'authentic' connection to rural voters despite Democrats' base of support typically being in cities. 'I don't hear a lot of negative commentary about him out in the countryside,' she said. North Carolina Republican strategist Jim Blaine took issue with the recent PPP polling showing Cooper ahead of the incumbent, pointing out past criticism of the pollster. 'Tillis' numbers aren't great but, considering the source, are far from fatal,' Blaine said on the social platform X. The race 'would be tied if Tillis had the level of support with the GOP that Cooper is getting from Dems,' he added, arguing the Republican could get there with another endorsement from Trump, who backed Tillis in the 2020 cycle. If Cooper doesn't run, Democrats could have another option in former Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.), who won his House seat in a tight 2022 race. But after new congressional maps threatened a handful of the state's House Democrats, Nickel decided against seeking reelection and floated a future Senate run. Sabato's Crystal Ball said in an analysis last month that Nickel 'would seem to have a head start' in 'a Cooper-less Democratic primary.' The election handicapper rated the race as one of just three 2026 Senate toss-ups. But if the former governor does get in, he likely 'clears the field,' said Jason Roberts, a professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. And while Cooper isn't necessarily Democrats' only chance of a flip, Roberts added, he could be their best. 'He's a very formidable candidate if he decides to run. It seems like he's going to run, and I think that sets up a blockbuster race.' Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
11-03-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Democrats eager for Cooper Senate bid in North Carolina
Democrats are eager to see former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) jump into the Tar Heel State's Senate race next year, seeing him as the most formidable challenger to Sen. Thom Tillis (R). Cooper said at the conclusion of his second term as governor that he would look at running for Senate as one of several options ahead of him, and speculation of him getting into the race has only risen since then, with the head of Senate Democrats' campaign arm reportedly praising him to donors. A popular two-term governor of the purple state, Cooper would bring name ID to a race in a state where Democrats haven't held a Senate seat in a decade and that President Trump won by 3 points in 2024. 'If Roy Cooper decides to run, it would really make the race one of the most competitive races in the country next year, could be the most of any Senate race in the country,' said Democratic strategist Doug Wilson. Tillis won reelection in 2020 with a less than 2-point edge in what was the most expensive Senate race in the country that year. Higher up on the ballot, Trump narrowly beat former President Biden in the battleground. This cycle, Tillis is on track to be one of the most vulnerable Senate incumbents, facing potentially tough competition from both sides of the aisle. He was among several Republican incumbents who faced pressure from the right over Trump's controversial Cabinet nominees — and, now that he's voted to confirm them, Democrats see a more promising pickup opportunity. A March report from the left-leaning Public Policy Polling found Tillis with a dismal approval rating of 25 percent, compared to a 48 percent approval rating for Trump. And the Republican was trailing Cooper in a hypothetical Senate match-up, 47 percent to 43 percent. A December poll from the Florida-based firm Victory Insights found Lara Trump, the president's daughter-in-law, would 'likely crush' Tillis in a GOP primary, though she hasn't expressed formal interest in the role. In a head-to-head with Cooper, Tillis trailed by 1 point. The map of Senate seats up for grabs in 2026 also will send more eyes to Tillis. Democrats have relatively few serious pickup opportunities next year, making the North Carolina race, along with the one in Maine for Sen. Susan Collins's (R) seat, key to Democratic hopes of cutting into the 53-seat Republican Senate majority. The Cook Political Report rates the race as 'lean Republican' but notes Cooper is 'Democrats' dream candidate to challenge Sen. Thom Tillis, and were he to run, Tillis would immediately become the most endangered GOP incumbent of the cycle.' Democrats acknowledged the difficulty Cooper could face in the race. Wilson noted voters in the state recently have tended to vote Republican for federal offices and Democratic for state-level offices. The Tar Heel State has gone red in every presidential race since 2012, and both its Senate seats have been held by the GOP since Tillis won his first term in 2014. But Cooper narrowly ousted then-incumbent Gov. Pat McCrory (R) in a tight 2016 race that took a month to call and has become a bright spot for Democrats in the battleground. He bested his Trump-endorsed Republican challenger in 2020 by more than 4 points and, in a sign of his potency in the party, he was floated in the veepstakes to join former Vice President Kamala Harris on the 2024 White House ticket. He withdrew himself from consideration, though, contending it was 'just not the right time for me or my state.' Now that he's left office, Cooper is set to start an eight-week teaching job at the Harvard School of Public Health in late March. Wilson pointed to former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan's (R) unsuccessful run for Senate against Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D) last year despite being a widely popular governor in a blue state. But North Carolina is a much more competitive state. 'If anybody could do it, I think [Cooper] would have a good shot,' he said. Aimy Steele, a former Democratic North Carolina state House candidate who runs the New North Carolina Project, which works to drive Black and brown voter turnout, said she would expect boosted turnout from minority voters based on Cooper's record as governor. 'He's someone that everyone can see themselves supporting not only Black and brown people, but also white people, people who are just a diverse background, regardless of their race,' she said. Cooper performed particularly well with Black voters in his 2020 reelection campaign, winning 92 percent of their votes, according to a CNN exit poll. Cynthia Wallace, who leads a nonprofit working to boost rural turnout called the New Rural Project, noted that Cooper is originally from a rural area and demonstrated an 'authentic' connection to rural voters despite Democrats' base of support typically being in cities. 'I don't hear a lot of negative commentary about him out in the countryside,' she said. North Carolina Republican strategist Jim Blaine took issue with the recent PPP polling showing Cooper ahead of the incumbent, pointing out past criticism of the pollster. 'Tillis' numbers aren't great but, considering the source, are far from fatal,' Blaine said on the social platform X. The race 'would be tied if Tillis had the level of support with the GOP that Cooper is getting from Dems,' he added, arguing the Republican could get there with another endorsement from Trump, who backed Tillis in the 2020 cycle. If Cooper doesn't run, Democrats could have another option in former Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.), who won his House seat in a tight 2022 race. But after new congressional maps threatened a handful of the state's House Democrats, Nickel decided against seeking reelection and floated a future Senate run. 2024 Election Coverage Sabato's Crystal Ball said in an analysis last month that Nickel 'would seem to have a head start' in 'a Cooper-less Democratic primary.' The election handicapper rated the race as one of just three 2026 Senate toss-ups. But if the former governor does get in, he likely 'clears the field,' said Jason Roberts, a professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. And while Cooper isn't necessarily Democrats' only chance of a flip, Roberts added, he could be their best. 'He's a very formidable candidate if he decides to run. It seems like he's going to run, and I think that sets up a blockbuster race.'
Yahoo
11-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Roy Cooper holds advantage over Tillis in hypothetical Senate race: Poll
CHARLOTTE, N.C. (QUEEN CITY NEWS) — A new poll shows Republican North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis could face a tight re-election race, if a former governor were to throw his hat in the ring. The poll, released last week by Public Policy Polling, shows Thom Tillis has a 25% approval rating, and that Roy Cooper holds a four-point advantage if he and Tillis were to compete in a general election. Republicans press Trump to resume military, intelligence aid to Ukraine 'Cooper is definitely at the top of Democrats' list for recruitment and if he does decide to get in the race, I kind of doubt you're going to see any other serious Democrats run,' said Tom Jensen with Public Policy Polling. The polling prompted a known Trump strategist to take to X and call for a Republican to primary Tillis. Tillis dismissed the suggestion in an interview with NBC News, calling the strategist a 'hack.' On top of that polling on a hypothetical race between Tillis and Cooper, respondents also gave Tillis just a 25 percent approval rating with 51 percent labeling him as 'weak.' 'A lot of folks have made hay about Thom Tillis' negative approval numbers among the Republicans but the reality is, the last time a U.S. Senate incumbent lost was 2014,' said Western Carolina Professor Chris Cooper. Cooper agreed Roy Cooper (no relation) would be a clear favorite for Democrats in the state but argued that a poll this far out should not be viewed as a guaranteed prediction of what happens the next election cycle. REAL ID being required to fly is actually coming this spring 'It's a quality poll. Public Policy Polling does a good job, but I don't think we should make too much of those at this time,' the professor said. 'We don't even known that Roy Cooper is going to be the Democratic candidate. So what is a poll between those two really mean? I don't think it means much.' The same survey also showed junior Sen. Ted Budd having low numbers, with just 26 percent saying they approve of the work he has done so far. Budd though has some time, his re-election won't be until 2028. Tillis will face a primary challenger next year. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
07-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
GOP Sen. Thom Tillis slams Trump-aligned operative who called to replace him in North Carolina Senate race
WASHINGTON — Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., blasted a conservative political consultant with close ties to President Donald Trump's orbit who questioned whether he could win re-election next year. Tillis was responding to comments on X by Arthur Schwartz, who said Republicans will 'need a new senate candidate in NC' in 2026, pointing to a poll from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling that found Tillis trailing Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper in a hypothetical general election matchup. 'The president needs a majority to continue his agenda,' Tillis said in an interview Thursday. 'Behavior by people like this guy, it's the thing that's the single greatest threat to us to deliver the majority next year.' Tillis said Schwartz 'doesn't have the temperament to be anywhere around the political circles that guarantee that we come back into a majority next year.' 'Arthur Schwartz is a political hack that should probably just keep on being a smart guy and a billionaire, because he's a s----- political consultant,' he added. Tillis won his previous two Senate races in battleground North Carolina by less than 2 percentage points. He formally launched his 2026 re-election campaign last year. Schwartz responded to NBC News' social media post about some of Tillis' critical comments of him by saying on X: 'Every Republican senator I know wants Tillis to drop out so we can run a serious candidate who will beat away misfits like Mark Robinson that will get crushed in a general. Maybe Thom should be planning his post senate future instead of reading his mentions on X.' Robinson, Republicans' scandal-plagued candidate for governor in North Carolina last year, lost to Democrat Josh Stein by 15 points. 'I have nothing against Tillis; I barely know him,' Schwartz also said on X. 'He's a mediocre candidate with no connection to the Republican base in a critical swing state. If Rs are serious about defending our senate majority we need to start looking for a replacement for Tillis — and we need to start NOW.' Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Notably, Schwartz helped shepherd Pete Hegseth's nomination for defense secretary through the Senate, a process in which Tillis became the key vote to confirm him. Hegseth faced allegations of alcohol abuse, a sexual assault and the financial mismanagement of organizations that he led, all of which he denied. Ultimately, three other Republican senators joined all Democrats in voting against his nomination, requiring Vice President JD Vance to break a 50-50 tie. It's not clear what Tillis is referring to regarding Schwartz's being a billionaire. Asked Thursday whether he stands by his vote to confirm Hegseth, Tillis responded, '100%.' He said Schwartz's 'behind-the-scenes behavior' toward him and other senators 'is part of the reason why I put Pete Hegseth's nomination in the balance.' 'Let me do due diligence. Don't tell me how to do my job,' Tillis said. 'And Arthur Schwartz should not even be walking the halls of the White House, in my opinion, based on his behavior. ... He wants to flex with me, then we are where we are.' It is not clear what role, if any, Schwartz plays in the Trump administration. He did not respond to requests for comment about his official role or Tillis' criticisms of his behavior. The White House also did not respond to a request for comment. In January, when NBC News reported on an affidavit containing allegations against Hegseth signed by his former sister-in-law, Danielle, Schwartz referred to himself as an adviser to Hegseth and a volunteer for the Trump administration. Schwartz is a friend of and consultant to Donald Trump Jr., the president's son. He is facilitating the Senate confirmation process for Elbridge Colby, Trump's nominee to be Hegseth's undersecretary of defense for policy. Republican members on the Senate Armed Services Committee grilled Colby this week over his stances on Taiwan, China, Iran and NATO allies. Vance appeared before the committee to endorse Colby, whom he called 'a friend.' Tillis said: 'Anything that [Schwartz] represents in Congress, he better not have his fingerprints on it, because I'm a reflexive no to anything he represents. That's how bad I think he is for the president.' Andrew Surabian, a Republican strategist affiliated with Vance, also responded to Tillis' comments, posting on X: 'What kind of s----- campaign is @ThomTillis running that he attacks someone who no one in NC has ever heard of over a tweet? While Arthur isn't a billionaire, he is indeed a smart guy. We have worked together for years overseeing all of Don Jr.'s political activities. Not smart!' Sen. Ted Budd, R-N.C., backed Tillis during an interaction with reporters Thursday in the Capitol. 'I endorsed Thom a long time ago. Look, I've known him long before he was ever in this role and supported him. He's a great partner for the state,' Budd said. 'He's tough, I'll tell you.' This article was originally published on
