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Politico
25-06-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Polling missed Mamdani's surge. Pollsters tell us where it went wrong.
No pollster was able to fully capture the energy of Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani as he cruised to victory in New York City's mayoral primary Tuesday — including failing to see the enthusiasm among young voters who came out in droves for the high-turnout election. It's another moment of reflection for an industry that continues to face an onslaught of criticism, and pollsters were quick to point out that there was plenty wrong with the surveys done in the race. Most pollsters will survey past primary voters in order to get an accurate prediction. In this case, not including the influx of likely first-time primary voters proved to be a crucial misstep. Though former Gov. Andrew Cuomo appeared to have an edge in the polls, his perceived advantage ultimately did not account for a key portion of Mamdani's base and led pollsters to one of their biggest misses. Tom Jensen said that's where his firm — left-leaning Public Policy Polling — succeeded. 'I definitely think there were big mistakes made,' Jensen said. 'Really, the number one most important thing that a pollster needs to do to be accurate is to figure out what the electorate's gonna look like. So if you get the electorate off, you know, you're wrong.' PPP's poll, conducted in early June, commissioned by comptroller candidate Justin Brannan, and first reported by POLITICO, was the only that had Mamdani in the lead after the first round of voting. (One from Emerson College, published one day before the election and conducted June 18-20, had Mamdani prevailing only after ranked choice ballots were redistributed.) Jensen pointed out that many of the polls showing Cuomo leading by double digits had about 30 percent of the electorate under 45. The PPP poll had a higher margin at 37 percent, a number that may still fall short of the total percent of voters in that age group, who likely voted for Mamdani at a higher margin. Jensen also said that PPP polled more people who hadn't voted in recent primaries, another group that likely split for Mamdani. More than double the amount of New Yorkers voted early in this year's race compared to 2021, and almost one-quarter of them had not voted in any Democratic primary from 2012 to 2024, according to a recent analysis published by Gothamist. A plurality of those early voters were between 25 and 34. Others pointed to when the polls took place, as Mamdani's campaign continued to gain momentum in the closing stages. Data for Progress Interim Executive Director Ryan O'Donnell said that their early June poll, which was commissioned by a pro-Mamdani super PAC, was one of the first to show that Mamdani had closed Cuomo's lead. 'At the time, people treated it as a wild outlier,' O'Donnell said. But in retrospect, he said, it provided 'a very accurate representation of where [the race] was at that time.' There was also a major lack of high-quality nonpartisan polling in the race. 'They were bad. They were straight up bad,' said Democratic pollster Adam Carlson. 'But you can count on one hand how many quality independent polls there were.' Of the 32 total polls tracked by The New York Times, just nine of them met the paper's reliability standards, and only two came during the last month of the race. Still, none had Mamdani with a lead after the first round. 'No one could have seen all of the changes in the electorate coming, but missing the first round by 20 points?' Carlson said. 'Something is wrong.' The sparse amount of independent polling in the race helped Cuomo and his aligned groups continue to tout polling numbers from within his circle. Those numbers showed a big lead and helped him build a sense of inevitability early in the race. Democratic pollster Margie Omero, whose husband's firm worked on ads for Mamdani's campaign, said some of the polls were done too early, and that was compounded by the changes in the electorate. 'It's likely young people went from some of the least likely to turn out in previous elections to the most likely,' Omero said in an email. 'Polling would've needed to be open minded that this change was really happening, and take that into account in their assumptions.' Predicting the electorate is easier said than done — pollsters are essentially making an educated guess based on past turnout about what the future pool of voters will look like. But moving forward, some pollsters said it should be a priority. 'We have to have polling carefully mirror the voter file,' said Bradley Honan, whose firm conducted a few polls in the race. There's always nuance when it comes to polling, and an off-year primary can prove to be particularly difficult in an industry that's full of volatility and error. 'We all need to, in some degree, check our expectations about what polling can actually do in an election like that,' said Democratic pollster Nick Gourevitch. Pollsters are used to criticism. After a high-profile miss in 2016 when President Donald Trump's victory took pollsters by surprise, they've been going through years of recriminations, tweaking their models and pledging to do better next time. 'I don't think it's fair for the industry to take that hit as a whole, but I understand why people would jump to that conclusion,' Carlson said. 'Because it was so stark.'
Miami Herald
17-06-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Andrew Cuomo's Chances of Beating Zohran Mamdani Soar
Andrew Cuomo's political comeback may be closer than ever, as new momentum builds behind the former governor's bid for New York mayor. In previous days, some polls showed rival candidate Zohran Mamdani ahead of Cuomo for the first time. But predictor Polymarket now has Cuomo well ahead of his rival. A primary win for Cuomo, 67, would mark a dramatic political comeback, just four years after he resigned as New York governor in 2021 amid the threat of impeachment over sexual misconduct allegations, which he has consistently denied. No charges relating to the allegations have ever been brought against him. Polymarket shows that Cuomo now has a 73-percent chance of winning the New York mayor Democratic primary. Meanwhile, Mamdani has a 25-percent chance. Cuomo's chances have shot up in the past few days after the gap between him and Mamdani narrowed to just 15 points on June 12, when Mamdani's chances of winning stood at 42 percent to Cuomo's 57 percent. Since then, Cuomo's chances of winning have bounced back. However, they are still smaller than they were before New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Mamdani in early June. The endorsement gave Mamdani a boost to his campaign, with momentum building ever since. Before that, his odds of winning stood at just 6 percent at the end of May, while Cuomo had a 93-percent chance. Cuomo's odds of winning the primary have surged in recent days, according to prediction market Polymarket, which now gives the former governor a 73-percent chance of victory compared to 25 percent for Assemblymember Mamdani. While not traditional polling or statistical modeling, Polymarket reflects real-money wagers on political outcomes, and gained credibility for its accuracy during the 2024 election cycle. The prediction comes after a recent poll showed Mamdani, 33, in the lead over Cuomo for the first time. The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling for Democrat Justin Brannan's city comptroller campaign on June 6 and 7 among 573 likely voters, and reviewed by Politico, showed Mamdani beating Cuomo (35 to 31 percent)-a difference that is narrowly within the 4.1 percent margin of error. Brannan, who represents parts of southern Brooklyn in the City Council, and Mamdani were both endorsed by the New York Working Families Party. City Comptroller Brad Lander, despite his citywide office and significant campaign spending, received just 9 percent support in the survey. Former Comptroller Scott Stringer polled at 5 percent, while City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams came in at 4 percent, despite endorsements from Attorney General Letitia James and labor powerhouse District Council 37. The Democratic primary will use ranked-choice voting, allowing voters to choose up to five candidates. Since joining the race on March 1 to challenge current New York City Mayor Eric Adams-who is seeking reelection as an independent-Cuomo has consistently led in most public polls. A Cuomo internal poll conducted by Expedition Strategies and shared with Politico last week showed him leading Mamdani by 12 points (56 to 44 percent) after eight rounds of ranked-choice tabulations. That poll, which surveyed 600 likely mayoral primary voters from June 3-7, was conducted during the same period as a Public Policy Polling survey that showed Mamdani in the lead. Another survey by the independent Honan Strategy Group, conducted from June 5–9, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.76 percentage points, found Cuomo ahead with 38 percent support, while Mamdani trailed at 22 percent. A mid-May 2025 SurveyUSA poll also showed Cuomo leading the Democratic field with 43 percent support, far ahead of Mamdani's 11 percent. However, more recent polling suggests Mamdani is closing the gap. A Data for Progress poll, commissioned by a super PAC backing Mamdani, surveyed 819 likely Democratic primary voters between May 30 and June 4. It found Mamdani just 2 points behind Cuomo on the final ranked-choice ballot. That same poll showed Mamdani with a higher favorability rating-58 percent compared to Cuomo's 48 percent. Mamdani's momentum has been fueled by social media and grassroots organizing. His campaign videos-often viral-promote progressive policies such as free public buses, city-run grocery stores, and a rent freeze on rent-regulated apartments across the city. As Mamdani gains ground, Cuomo has stepped up his attacks, branding his opponent as inexperienced. At a debate last week, Cuomo said Mamdani "has never done anything," criticizing him for having only passed three bills in the State Assembly-a line he also used in the first Democratic primary debate. Cuomo said it would be reckless to elect someone with so little experience. But Mamdani responded: "I have never had to resign in disgrace…I have never hounded the 13 women who credibly accused me of sexual harassment. I have never sued for their gynecological records. And I have never done those things because I am not you, Mr. Cuomo." This weekend, The New York Times dealt a blow to Mamdani's campaign, endorsing Cuomo-albeit reluctantly. "As for Mr. Cuomo, we have serious objections to his ethics and conduct, even if he would be better for New York's future than Mr. Mamdani," the board wrote. They added: "Mr. Mamdani would also bring less relevant experience than perhaps any mayor in New York history. He has never run a government department or private organization of any size. As a state legislator, he has struggled to execute his own agenda," the board wrote. "We do not believe that Mr. Mamdani deserves a spot on New Yorkers' ballots." Zohran Mamdani told The New York Times last week: "There are far too many New Yorkers who do not know if they will be able to call themselves that next year, who do not know if they will be able to afford their rent, or their child care, their groceries, or even their MetroCard. "This is a city that we want to ensure does not become a museum or a relic of the working-class people who built it, but rather a living, breathing testament to the continuation of that story." Andrew Cuomo told the Times earlier this month when asked what the most pressing issue is for New Yorkers: "Lack of affordable housing, deterioration of quality of life-they all stem from poor management. Then the existential threat is Trump." Early voting in the June 24 primary began on Saturday, while the general election for mayor is on November 4, 2025. 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Newsweek
17-06-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Andrew Cuomo's Chances of Beating Zohran Mamdani Soar
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Andrew Cuomo's political comeback may be closer than ever, as new momentum builds behind the former governor's bid for New York mayor. Why It Matters In previous days, some polls showed rival candidate Zohran Mamdani ahead of Cuomo for the first time. But predictor Polymarket now has Cuomo well ahead of his rival. A primary win for Cuomo, 67, would mark a dramatic political comeback, just four years after he resigned as New York governor in 2021 amid the threat of impeachment over sexual misconduct allegations, which he has consistently denied. No charges relating to the allegations have ever been brought against him. From left, Democratic mayoral candidates Andrew Cuomo, Whitney Tilson, Zohran Mamdani and Michael Blake during a primary debate on June 4, 2025, in New York City. From left, Democratic mayoral candidates Andrew Cuomo, Whitney Tilson, Zohran Mamdani and Michael Blake during a primary debate on June 4, 2025, in New York City. Yuki Iwamura/AP What To Know Polymarket shows that Cuomo now has a 73-percent chance of winning the New York mayor Democratic primary. Meanwhile, Mamdani has a 25-percent chance. Cuomo's chances have shot up in the past few days after the gap between him and Mamdani narrowed to just 15 points on June 12, when Mamdani's chances of winning stood at 42 percent to Cuomo's 57 percent. Since then, Cuomo's chances of winning have bounced back. However, they are still smaller than they were before New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Mamdani in early June. The endorsement gave Mamdani a boost to his campaign, with momentum building ever since. Before that, his odds of winning stood at just 6 percent at the end of May, while Cuomo had a 93-percent chance. Cuomo's odds of winning the primary have surged in recent days, according to prediction market Polymarket, which now gives the former governor a 73-percent chance of victory compared to 25 percent for Assemblymember Mamdani. While not traditional polling or statistical modeling, Polymarket reflects real-money wagers on political outcomes, and gained credibility for its accuracy during the 2024 election cycle. The prediction comes after a recent poll showed Mamdani, 33, in the lead over Cuomo for the first time. The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling for Democrat Justin Brannan's city comptroller campaign on June 6 and 7 among 573 likely voters, and reviewed by Politico, showed Mamdani beating Cuomo (35 to 31 percent)—a difference that is narrowly within the 4.1 percent margin of error. Brannan, who represents parts of southern Brooklyn in the City Council, and Mamdani were both endorsed by the New York Working Families Party. City Comptroller Brad Lander, despite his citywide office and significant campaign spending, received just 9 percent support in the survey. Former Comptroller Scott Stringer polled at 5 percent, while City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams came in at 4 percent, despite endorsements from Attorney General Letitia James and labor powerhouse District Council 37. The Democratic primary will use ranked-choice voting, allowing voters to choose up to five candidates. Since joining the race on March 1 to challenge current New York City Mayor Eric Adams—who is seeking reelection as an independent—Cuomo has consistently led in most public polls. A Cuomo internal poll conducted by Expedition Strategies and shared with Politico last week showed him leading Mamdani by 12 points (56 to 44 percent) after eight rounds of ranked-choice tabulations. That poll, which surveyed 600 likely mayoral primary voters from June 3-7, was conducted during the same period as a Public Policy Polling survey that showed Mamdani in the lead. Another survey by the independent Honan Strategy Group, conducted from June 5–9, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.76 percentage points, found Cuomo ahead with 38 percent support, while Mamdani trailed at 22 percent. A mid-May 2025 SurveyUSA poll also showed Cuomo leading the Democratic field with 43 percent support, far ahead of Mamdani's 11 percent. However, more recent polling suggests Mamdani is closing the gap. A Data for Progress poll, commissioned by a super PAC backing Mamdani, surveyed 819 likely Democratic primary voters between May 30 and June 4. It found Mamdani just 2 points behind Cuomo on the final ranked-choice ballot. That same poll showed Mamdani with a higher favorability rating—58 percent compared to Cuomo's 48 percent. Mamdani's momentum has been fueled by social media and grassroots organizing. His campaign videos—often viral—promote progressive policies such as free public buses, city-run grocery stores, and a rent freeze on rent-regulated apartments across the city. As Mamdani gains ground, Cuomo has stepped up his attacks, branding his opponent as inexperienced. At a debate last week, Cuomo said Mamdani "has never done anything," criticizing him for having only passed three bills in the State Assembly—a line he also used in the first Democratic primary debate. Cuomo said it would be reckless to elect someone with so little experience. But Mamdani responded: "I have never had to resign in disgrace…I have never hounded the 13 women who credibly accused me of sexual harassment. I have never sued for their gynecological records. And I have never done those things because I am not you, Mr. Cuomo." This weekend, The New York Times dealt a blow to Mamdani's campaign, endorsing Cuomo—albeit reluctantly. "As for Mr. Cuomo, we have serious objections to his ethics and conduct, even if he would be better for New York's future than Mr. Mamdani," the board wrote. They added: "Mr. Mamdani would also bring less relevant experience than perhaps any mayor in New York history. He has never run a government department or private organization of any size. As a state legislator, he has struggled to execute his own agenda," the board wrote. "We do not believe that Mr. Mamdani deserves a spot on New Yorkers' ballots." What People Are Saying Zohran Mamdani told The New York Times last week: "There are far too many New Yorkers who do not know if they will be able to call themselves that next year, who do not know if they will be able to afford their rent, or their child care, their groceries, or even their MetroCard. "This is a city that we want to ensure does not become a museum or a relic of the working-class people who built it, but rather a living, breathing testament to the continuation of that story." Andrew Cuomo told the Times earlier this month when asked what the most pressing issue is for New Yorkers: "Lack of affordable housing, deterioration of quality of life—they all stem from poor management. Then the existential threat is Trump." What Happens Next Early voting in the June 24 primary began on Saturday, while the general election for mayor is on November 4, 2025.
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
No, Adam Wainwright is not running for U.S. Congress anytime soon
ST. LOUIS – Adam Wainwright is a man of many hats: A father of five, a recently-retired St. Louis Cardinals pitcher, a country music artist and an occasional analyst on MLB broadcasts. One title he won't be adding soon? A Missouri Congressman. FOX 2 has learned that Wainwright is not pursuing a run for political office in the foreseeable future, despite recent speculation. Earlier this week, a report from claimed that Wainwright had been 'recruited' to challenge Missouri U.S. Rep Ann Wagner for political office. Wagner, a U.S. Congresswoman of the Republican party, has served in Missouri's 2nd Congressional District since 2013. The report referenced an apparent poll question from Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling, which was reportedly discussed in a Cardinals subreddit post. According to that post, the poll included questions such as 'Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Adam Wainwright?' and 'If the candidates for Congress next time were Republican Ann Wagner and Democrat Adam Wainwright, who would you vote for?' (The poll did not identify Wainwright with a particular political party in its phrasing.) The online chatter led some to believe that Wainwright might seriously be considering a campaign for a political office. FOX 2 reached out to multiple sources to verify information, and ultimately heard directly from Wainwright. On Thursday, Wainwright shared the following statement with FOX 2 Sports Director Martin Kilcoyne: 'It was an honor to be thought of in regards to the upcoming congressional election in Missouri. St. Louis has been home to me and my family for almost 2 decades and I couldn't have picked a better place to play the game that I love or raise a family. 'With 5 kids going 5 different ways everyday, Jenny and I stay incredibly busy as it is, not to mention the broadcast schedule with Fox and concert dates thrown in. Right now I would not be able to spend the time needed to serve Missouri like they deserve, but will be praying for great candidates on both sides of the aisle to run so Missourians have great choices for their future. 'I appreciate the consideration and putting all the well-written political jargon aside… That was cool for me and very encouraging that lots of people thought of me that way. Pretty neat stuff.' Wainwright's statement did not confirm whether any political group approached him directly or attempted to 'recruit' him for political office. He made clear he would not be running for political office in the upcoming election cycle. Wagner's seat is next up for election in November 2026. And based on Wainwright's statement to FOX 2, it's unclear whether he aspires to run for any political office. According to Public Policy Polling's website, the organization 'conducts surveys for politicians and political organizations, unions, consultants, and businesses' and formed in 2001 'to measure and track public opinion.' Public Policy Polling's website does not explicitly explain its methodology behind questions asked in surveys. Though its polling methods may include hypothetical high-profile matchups as a way to measure incumbent support, name recognition or voter preferences. That could explain why Wainwright, a well-known St. Louis figure with no previous background in political offices, may have been included in polling. FOX 2 reached out to Public Policy Polling for comment on the matter, but our requests have not been returned as of this story's publication. NOTE: Video is from FOX 2's August 2024 coverage of Wainwright taking on MLB broadcast analyst duties, unrelated to this story. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
12-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Mamdani ahead of Cuomo for 1st time in new NYC mayoral primary poll
The Brief A new poll is out on the state of the Democratic New York City mayoral primary. For the first time since former Gov. Cuomo entered the race, one poll has him trailing. Early voting begins on Saturday and continues through Sunday, June 22. NEW YORK CITY - A new poll is showing a shake-up at the top among Democratic candidates for New York City mayor. By the numbers For the first time since former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo entered the race back on March 1, one poll has him trailing. It comes as other recent polls show Cuomo roughly 10 percentage points ahead. RELATED: Meet the candidates running for NYC mayor RELATED: NYC mayoral candidates answer questions on taxes, affordability, spending RELATED: NYC primary 2025 voting guide: Everything you should know RELATED: Voters could be given the option to vote on removing NYC mayors from office The survey, which was conducted by Public Policy Polling for Justin Brannan's city comptroller campaign, shows Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani leading Cuomo among likely Democratic primary voters 35% to 31%, a split that is within the 4.1% margin of error. Here were the rest of the results: Not sure: 11%. Brad Lander: 9%. Scott Stringer: 5%. Adrienne Adams: 4%. Zellnor Myrie: 3%. Michael Blake: 2%. Jessica Ramos: 0%. The poll did not include a ranked choice voting simulation. Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey: According to a May survey, Cuomo was at 35%, followed by Mamdani at 22% and Lander at 10%. The survey was conducted May 23-26. Marist College: According to a poll conducted in May, Cuomo was at 44%, followed by Mamdani at 22% and Adams at 11%. The survey of 3,383 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted from May 1-8. Siena College: An April poll had Cuomo at 34%, followed by Mamdani at 16%. The poll surveyed 811 registered voters, with a specific focus on 556 Democratic voters. What they're saying The former governor argues that Mamdani is simply not ready to be mayor. "So just imagine the job interview for mayor of the city of New York. 'Hello, I'm applying for the job of the mayor of city of New York. OK. Do you have management experience? No. Have you managed 100 people before? No. Have you managed 50 people before? No. You have experience dealing with Washington because we have this fellow named Trump who's a problem. No,'" Cuomo said. Mamdani, who is 33, admits that Cuomo, who is 67, boasts more experience, but he argues that's not necessarily a good thing. "New Yorkers need to ask themselves in this moment what kind of experience do they want?" Mamdani said. "Do they want the experience of a man who has been funded by the very billionaires who put Donald Trump back in the White House?" The backstory On Wednesday, Cuomo received the endorsement of former New York Gov. David Patterson, as well as Keith Wright, the chairman of the Manhattan Democratic Party, just a day after former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg endorsed him. What's next Thursday's debate at 7 p.m. will include Cuomo, Mamdani, Adrienne Adams, Lander, Stringer, Myrie and Tilson. Early voting begins on Saturday and continues through Sunday, June 22. The primary is Tuesday, June 24.
