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Reuters
05-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Bond investors stick to neutral stance ahead of Fed meeting
The Federal Reserve building is seen in Washington, U.S., January 26, 2022. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab NEW YORK, May 5 (Reuters) - Bond investors have taken a neutral stance in the run-up to the Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting this week, reflecting continued caution over U.S. trade policy that threatens to plunge the world's largest economy into recession. Fixed-income investors said they are either staying neutral relative to their benchmarks, reducing their long-duration exposure, or preferring to remain on the shorter end of the yield curve. The Reuters Tariff Watch newsletter is your daily guide to the latest global trade and tariff news. Sign up here. "We are sort of in this uneasy equilibrium between growing economic concerns as we see soft data sour a bit, but also the potential for policy shocks that could impact inflation outlooks and the deficit," said Chip Hughey, managing director of fixed income at Truist Advisory Services in Richmond, Virginia. To be neutral means sticking to a portfolio's duration benchmark. For instance, if the benchmark duration is five years, a neutral position would suggest staying in fixed-income assets with five-year maturities or around that vicinity. Duration, which is expressed in number of years, provides an indication on how far the bond's value will fall or rise when interest rates move. In general, when rates fall, higher-duration bonds experience a greater increase in value compared to those with lower duration. Investors extended duration for most of 2024, believing at the time that the Fed would embark on a deep rate-cutting cycle. Long-duration bets typically involve buying longer-dated assets on expectations of a decline in yields. On Wednesday, the U.S. central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee is widely anticipated to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range. Stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for April last Friday also gave the Fed some leeway to keep rates unchanged. Since the Fed's last meeting in March, President Donald Trump's administration has introduced a massive trade shock that saw effective tariff rates surge, particularly on Chinese goods. That fueled a U.S. Treasuries sell-off that, at one point, pushed benchmark 10-year yields more than 70 basis points (bps) higher to nearly 4.6% over the April 3-11 period. The U.S. 10-year yield is currently at 4.357%. In his post-meeting press conference on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to indicate that Trump's tariff shock could lead to higher inflation and an increase in unemployment, with recession not a far-fetched scenario. NO PRE-EMPTIVE MOVE "The Fed is unlikely to act pre-emptively given its expectation that inflation will be firming and the size of the tariff shock could produce persistent inflation effects," Morgan Stanley analysts led by chief U.S. economist Michael Gapen wrote in a research note. Trump has walked back some of the U.S. tariffs since his self-declared "Liberation Day" on April 2, partly stabilizing bond and stock markets. But overall market anxiety over what will happen next has not dissipated, investors said. "We're telling investors to continue to be cautious and de- risk," said Gregory Peters, co-chief investment officer at PGIM Fixed Income, which has assets under management of $837 billion. "The way I see the tail is that there's only one side of the distribution: I don't see the upside tail. I think there's more of a centering around, from a yield-curve perspective, on the front end because at least that's driven by Fed policy," he said referring to his expectation that the economy will struggle with the Trump administration's tariff policy. He added that the back end, specifically 30-year bonds, are "driven by factors that are well beyond my control and understanding." The market, however, does not expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged much longer. The benchmark federal funds futures market has priced in a nearly 80% chance that the U.S. central bank will resume its rate cuts at its July 29-30 policy meeting, according to LSEG calculations. All told, the market expects about 77 basis points of easing this year. J.P. Morgan's latest Treasury client survey showed that 64% of the U.S. bank's clients are neutral, and 24% are net long overall. That net long position on Treasuries was down from a peak of 32% in the week of April 7, according to Jay Barry, head of global rates strategy at J.P. Morgan. "We're currently neutral, leaning more on the front end of the curve where we have a little bit of comfort that it will be anchored toward Fed cuts going forward," said Anders Persson, chief investment officer and head of global fixed income at Nuveen in Charlotte, North Carolina. "That's recognizing that given all the policy uncertainty, the backdrop of not a whole lot of clarity, that we're not all that comfortable making big bets." Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Reuters
02-05-2025
- Health
- Reuters
Measles cases in Texas rise to 683, state health department says
[1/2] A measles alert sign hangs outside the entrance to the Cohen Children's Medical Center, where the state health department confirmed that a baby tested positive and that there is a possibility of exposure to others at the facility, in New Hyde Park, New York, U.S., March 14, 2025. REUTERS/Shannon... Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more May 2 (Reuters) - The Texas health department reported 683 cases of measles in the state on Friday, an increase of 20 cases since April 29, as the U.S. battles one of its worst outbreaks of the childhood disease. As of May 1, a total of 935 confirmed measles cases were reported by 30 jurisdictions, with 12 outbreaks reported this year, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's website. Keep up with the latest medical breakthroughs and healthcare trends with the Reuters Health Rounds newsletter. Sign up here. New Mexico's health department reported 67 cases on Friday, one more case from its last update. Most of the state's cases are from Lea County, adjacent to Gaines County in Texas.
Reuters
02-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
DOGE expands presence at Wall St regulator, sources say
Elon Musk looks on during the day of a meeting with House Republicans to discuss the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 5, 2025. REUTERS/Kent Nishimura/File Photo/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab May 2 (Reuters) - Presidential adviser Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is expanding its presence at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission by adding a third staff member, according to people familiar with the matter. Since March DOGE has been scrutinizing agency contracting and organizational charts for more possible cuts and restructuring. The SEC has shed at least 16% of its staff, largely through the Trump administration's voluntary buyouts. Make sense of the latest ESG trends affecting companies and governments with the Reuters Sustainable Switch newsletter. Sign up here. The SEC and the White House did not answer specific questions from Reuters. The SEC repeated prior statements that it was co-operating with DOGE to find cost savings while the White House said newly-installed Chairman Paul Atkins was committed to maintaining "fair, orderly, and efficient markets while protecting everyday investors." Led by Elie Mishory, a former top lawyer at the prediction markets company Kalshi, DOGE's staff at the SEC has since been joined by Jonathan Mendelson, according to two of the sources. Mishory reports to Chair Atkins' office, according to internal records seen by Reuters. Mishory and Mendelson did not immediately respond to requests for comment. During confirmation testimony, Atkins told the Senate he would work with DOGE to create efficiencies. Since President Donald Trump returned to power, the White House has slashed the federal workforce in a bid to reduce what it says is wasteful spending. The staff exodus so far has depleted divisions that oversee oversight functions at the regulator, prompting worry from some observers that the losses will hinder the SEC's performance in detecting fraud and promoting financial stability. Reporting by Douglas Gillison in Washington and Chris Prentice in New York; Editing by Freya Whitworth Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab Chris Prentice Thomson Reuters Chris Prentice reports on financial crimes, with a focus on securities enforcement matters. She previously covered commodities markets and trade policy. She has received awards for her work from the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing and the Newswomen's Club of New York.
Reuters
29-04-2025
- Politics
- Reuters
France passes sweeping new drug law as cocaine surge drives crime wave
Member of parliament Sylvain Maillard of the Renaissance party speaks at the National Assembly in Paris, France, January 30, 2024. REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab PARIS, April 29 (Reuters) - French lawmakers on Tuesday approved a sweeping counter-narcotics law to equip the state with tougher tools to fight a sharp rise in drug crime following a record-breaking surge of South American cocaine into Europe. The new law will create a national prosecutor's office for organised crime, isolate dangerous kingpins in prisons to prevent them from running their empires from behind bars, and allow for the shutdown of businesses that launder drug money. The Reuters Tariff Watch newsletter is your daily guide to the latest global trade and tariff news. Sign up here. The use of cooperating witnesses - criminals offering information on their network in return for lighter sentences or other benefits - will be expanded, while assets will be confiscated unless their owners can attest to their provenance. The bill, which was born out of a 2024 Senate report that warned France faced a " tipping point" from rising drug violence, was not without controversy. A measure to provide police with an automatic backdoor into encrypted messaging services like WhatsApp and Signal was removed by lawmakers during debate. Centrist lawmaker Sylvain Maillard told Reuters tougher laws were needed to tackle a problem that is affecting nations across the continent. "Countries in Europe, like Holland and Belgium, are under attack," Maillard said. "All countries with major ports are particularly affected, and this is the case in France. We must combat this scourge, which has grown enormously in recent years, by updating the legislation." The new law comes amid growing awareness of France's struggle with organised crime. A spate of attacks on prisons across France, which the government says are in response to its push to make jails less hospitable to drug barons, has underlined the threat to the state posed by the narcotics trade. At least 25 people suspected of involvement in the prison attacks were arrested on Monday on terrorism charges. Years of record cocaine imports to Europe have transformed local drug markets, generating a wave of violence. Despite historic cocaine seizures in France, gangs are reaping windfalls as they expand from traditional power bases in cities such as Marseille into smaller towns unused to drug violence. The rise in gang crime has also increased support for the far-right National Rally party and helped drag French politics further to the right. Reporting by Gabriel Stargardter; Editing by Hugh Lawson Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Reuters
28-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Germany's new cabinet: who's who?
Katherina Reiche of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) arrives for the awarding ceremony of the M100 media prize 2010 in Potsdam, September 8, 2010. REUTERS/Johannes Eisele/Pool/file photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab BERLIN, April 28 (Reuters) - A new coalition government is taking shape in Berlin, with chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz picking close allies and corporate executives for his cabinet to tackle Germany's economic malaise amid trade tensions and a surging far right. Merz's conservative CDU/CSU bloc announced its nominees on Monday but the junior party in the incoming coalition, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), are not expected to name their candidates, including for the finance and defence ministries, until later. The Reuters Tariff Watch newsletter is your daily guide to the latest global trade and tariff news. Sign up here. The new coalition is expected to be sworn in on May 6. Here are the key appointments so far: ECONOMY MINISTRY, KATHERINA REICHE Reiche, 51, takes on the key ministry from the Greens' Robert Habeck at a time of prolonged economic downturn in Europe's largest economy. She has been CEO of regional energy infrastructure firm Westenergie - a division of ( opens new tab, Europe's largest operator of power grids - since early 2020. She also sits on the supervisory boards of German machine and car parts maker Schaeffler and Swedish energy firm Ingrid Capacity. Reiche is a member of Merz's conservative CDU party, having served as a member of Germany's parliament from 1998 until 2015 and held roles as parliamentary secretary at the environment and transport ministries. FOREIGN MINISTRY, JOHANN WADEPHUL Wadephul, 62, will succeed Annalena Baerbock of the Greens as Germany's top diplomat. A member of Germany's parliament since 2009, he is deputy leader of the CDU/CSU conservative faction in parliament responsible for foreign and defence topics. Wadephul is expected to be particularly loyal to Merz and implement the objectives of his chancellery on the world stage, according to Jana Puglierin of the European Council on Foreign Relations. "Merz has created the conditions and structures to be a very strong chancellor in foreign policy. He will be responsible for relations with the United States, China and Russia," she said. CHANCELLERY CHIEF-OF-STAFF THORSTEN FREI Frei, Merz's right-hand man in the chancellery, has often been pictured at the would-be chancellor's side during the coalition talks. The 51-year-old has served in the Bundestag since 2013 and taken on leading roles in the CDU's parliamentary faction, with a focus on interior and justice policy. Between 2004 and 2013, he was the mayor of Donaueschingen, a town of some 22,000 on the edge of the Black Forest. DIGITAL MINISTRY, KARSTEN WILDBERGER Wildberger will step down from his role as chief executive of German tech retailer Ceconomy ( opens new tab to join Merz's government. His position puts him in charge of modernising the German economy in a digital world, a task that has often seen only sluggish progress in a country still known for using fax machines and cash transactions. The 55-year-old has also previously served on the boards of German utility ( opens new tab and telecoms groups Telstra, Vodafone and Deutsche Telekom ( opens new tab. From 1998 until 2003, he worked as a management consultant at Boston Consulting Group. TRANSPORT MINISTRY, PATRICK SCHNIEDER Schnieder, 56, has served as a member of the German parliament since 2009 and previously worked as a lawyer. Since 2018, he has had a leading role in the conservatives' Bundestag faction. HEALTH MINISTRY, NINA WARKEN Warken, 45, has been a member of the Bundestag for the CDU since 2018 and previously served in parliament between 2013 and 2017. More recently, she sat on the parliamentary monitoring group for the COVID-19 pandemic. EDUCATION AND FAMILY MINISTRY, KARIN PRIEN Prien, 59, will move to federal level having served since 2017 as state minister for education, science and culture in Schleswig-Holstein, northern Germany. She leads the CDU's Jewish Forum and is a member of the Freundeskreis Yad Vashem, a group working to preserve the memory of the Holocaust. Reporting by Andreas Rinke and Sarah K Marsh, Writing by Rachel More Editing by Gareth Jones Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
