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Economic Times
10 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Nifty awaits trigger as June series kicks off with cautious tone, 25,100 key level: Rahul Ghose
Markets ended the week on a cautious note, marking the second consecutive week of consolidation. This subdued performance came amid ongoing global trade tensions and anticipation surrounding domestic policy developments. ADVERTISEMENT The benchmark indices, the Sensex and the Nifty, witnessed notable volatility through the week, eventually closing lower as investors reacted to uncertainties over U.S. tariff developments. Analyst Rahul Ghose, Founder and CEO, Octanom Tech and interacted with ET Markets regarding the outlook on Nifty and Bank Nifty along with an index strategy for the upcoming series. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat: The Nifty 50 index is currently in a consolidation phase, trading between 24,462 and 25,116, reflecting market indecision. The series of Dojis and spinning tops on the daily and weekly time frame further suggests that markets are likely to stay range-bound in the short to medium term. Key support resides at 24,164-23,935, while resistance is seen at 25,070 to 25,150. The June F&O series begins with elevated open interest (1.26 crore shares) but reduced FII long positions compared to previous months. Historically, June has been favourable, with three positive returns in the last four years. Nifty can head to 25,740, once we see two closings above the 25,100 mark, until then one should only look to be in hedged positions. Bank Nifty is consolidating between 53,500 and 56,000 with a series of indecisive candles. A sustained move above 56,100 (which is the high of the bearish engulfing candle) could trigger a rally toward 56,700. Bank Nifty looks likely to break out. ADVERTISEMENT FIIs reduced Nifty long positions to half of April/May levels, indicating caution. However, their net buying in April-May (Rs 25,841 crore) and focus on the RBI policy (June 6) and monsoon progress suggest potential catalysts for renewed momentum. ADVERTISEMENT The index's rangebound action (24,160–25,100) favours stock-specific opportunities, particularly in sectors like IT and pharma, showing relative strength. Index traders should wait for a confirmed breakout/breakdown. A move below 23,900 levels will open the opportunity for further downside where whereas a move above 25,100 levels would lead to an upside. The bigger time frame price action suggests that, probability of Nifty moving towards the upside is much higher than the downside. ADVERTISEMENT RIL is forming a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart and is currently testing the upper boundary near Rs 1,440. A breakout above Rs 1,440 with volume confirmation could lead to a move toward Rs 1,530-1,550 levels. The stock is holding above its 50-DMA and showing positive RSI divergence on the hourly chart — a sign of latent strength. Short-term support lies at Rs 1,396-1,390 like RIL, HDFC Bank is trading in a symmetrical triangle formation. A break above 1980 levels with good volumes could lead the stock towards newer highs. Rs 1,980 happens to be a short-term resistance for the stock with a strong engulfing bear candle. As Bank Nifty is expected to remain bullish, HDFC Bank is likely to break out sooner rather than later. ADVERTISEMENT ICICI Bank is slightly overstretched on the monthly & quarterly time frames. The RSI levels on a monthly basis are around 75, and quarterly, around 85. Since structurally it is in a strong uptrend, one should look to enter on a pullback rather than impulsively jumping around the CMP. Rs 1,300-1,320 area would be a good level to stock is in a strong uptrend on all time frames. However, considering the vertical rally in the stock recently, buying in a staggered manner would be a better approach. The bigger time frame charts of Suzlon are bullish and the stock could continue to trade with a strong momentum. The weekly and monthly RSI levels of Suzlon are above 60, suggesting a strong uptrend. Friday closed with a Gravestone DOJI candle after a strong gap up, signalling the stock could pull back in the short term. A pullback towards 58-60 would be a good opportunity for re-entry. Ola continues to make lower tops and lower bottoms on a daily and weekly time frame. The buying structure is clearly not visible on price charts. Such stocks are better entered when the stock breaks out post some sort of base formation, like it happened in Nyka or Zomato. Currently, this is not visible in Ola. Technically, Mazdock is extremely strong and all pullbacks will be potential buying opportunities. With the recent rally, the indicators have obviously entered an overbought territory, which means traders should only look to enter such stocks on a pullback. On charts,a pullback to the levels of Rs 2,800-2,900 would be a good point to enter. This level has a confluence with the 50 DMA & offers a good reward to risk ratio. Bajaj Auto is currently trading around the monthly 20 EMA & has been consolidating around that level for 2-3 months. The stock might continue to hover around this range before moving up again. Overall, technically, the stock looks positive. Among the sectors, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty metals look positive on charts, whereas Nifty FMCG & Nifty Auto look negative. Nifty Auto and FMCG are showing signs of consolidation on monthly charts & one needs to be very selective while picking stocks in these sectors. Nifty IT & Nifty metals look to be in strong momentum, trading close to their key averages. Any pullbacks would be an opportunity to IT Picks: Largecaps (Infosys, TCS) for stability; midcaps (Coforge, Persistent) for breakout Bank & Reliance, both heavyweights, look to be on the verge of a breakout on the daily charts. Cummins looks to be a strong momentum play and has huge potential in the short to medium term. The stock has just come out of a base formation on weekly & is showing signs of moving towards Rs 3,700-4,000 levels in the short-term Nifty: Trade the range (24,400–25,100) with stops. Go long above 25,100& short below 23900 levels. Sector – Overweight on Banking & Midcap IT, Underweight on FMCG. Trade with tight stop losses. Be willing to change stance from bullish to bearish and vice-versa if the market breaks key levels on either side (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Economic Times
13 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Dalal Street Week Ahead: Broader trend intact, but short-term risks rising
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Over the past five sessions, the Indian equity markets headed nowhere and continued consolidating in a defined range. In the previous weekly note, it was categorically expected that the markets might stay devoid of any directional bias unless it either takes out the upper edge or violates the lower edge of the consolidation zone. In line with the analysis, the Nifty oscillated in a 401.90-point range over the past five volatility also retraced; the India Vix came off by 6.95% to 16.08 on a weekly basis. While staying absolutely range-bound, the headline index Nifty 50 closed with a minor weekly loss of 102.45 points (-0.41%).As we step into the new week, the markets find themselves in a defined trading range, more toward the edge of the pattern support on the weekly chart. The Nifty appears to continue being in a well-defined trading range between 25100 and 24500 levels. This also implies that a directional trend would emerge only if the Nifty takes out 25100 convincingly or ends up violating the 24500 level. Unless either of these two things happens, the markets will remain devoid of directional bias and will continue staying in this defined range. The present technical structure makes it even more important to maintain a steadfast focus on protecting profits at higher levels and the rotation of sectors where a likely leadership change is coming week is expected to see the levels of 25000 and 25175 acting as resistance points. The supports come in at 24500 and 24380 weekly RSI is at 59.02; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal pattern analysis shows that after forming the most recent swing high at 25116, the Nifty has resisted this level for two subsequent weeks. This makes the level of 25100-25150 an important hurdle for the Nifty. Secondly, the Index has closed just at the support of an upward rising trendline; if this gets violated, the markets may see some more corrective retracement. Overall, the zone of 24500-24600 remains a crucial support area for the the Nifty stays in the 25100-24500 zone and consolidates, focusing on protecting profits at higher levels would be wise. While the markets keeps its underlying trend intact, it continues to remain prone to some extended corrective retracement until the levels of 25100 are taken out on the upside convincingly. During this phase, it makes more sense to keep leveraged exposures at modest levels and stay highly selective in making fresh purchases. While limiting the purchases to favorably rotating sectors, a cautious outlook is recommended for the coming our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty PSU Bank Index is the only Index inside the leading quadrant that continues to improve its relative momentum against the broader markets. The other sectors present inside the leading quadrant are PSE, Infrastructure, Consumption, and FMCG, and these groups show continued paring of relative momentum against the broader markets. The Nifty Commodities and the Nifty Bank Index have rolled inside the weakening quadrant. The Financial Services and the Services sector Indices are also inside the weakening Nifty Metal Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant. It is likely to relatively underperform along with the Pharma Index which also continues to languish inside this quadrant. The IT Index is also inside the lagging quadrant but is seen sharply improving its relative momentum against the broader Realty, Media, Energy, Midcap 100, and Auto Indices are inside the improving quadrant. They are likely to continue improving their relative performance against the broader Nifty 500 Index. Important Note: RRGTM charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and founder of and and is based in Vadodara. He can be reached at
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Watch These Gap Price Levels as Stock Plunges After Retailer Warns of Tariff Hit
Gap shares plunged Friday after the apparel retailer cautioned that tariffs will weigh on profit this year, overshadowing quarterly results that topped Wall Street expectations. The stock had previously run into selling pressure near prominent peaks that formed on the chart in March and June last year, indicating that some larger market participants locked in profits ahead of the retailer's quarterly results. Investors should watch crucial support levels on Gap's chart around $22 and $19, while also monitoring a major overhead area near $ Inc. (GAP) shares plunged Friday after the apparel retailer cautioned that tariffs will weigh on profit this year, overshadowing quarterly results that topped Wall Street expectations. The company behind brands including Old Navy, Banana Republic, Athletica and its namesake label said baseline import duties could dent operating income by between $100 million and $150 million this year. Leading into the company's earnings report, Gap shares had rallied 65% from their early-April low and gained 18% since the start of the year, boosted by the retailer's recent efforts to reinvigorate its brands and drive sales growth. The stock was down 19% in afternoon trading Friday at around $22.50 Below, let's break down the technicals on Gap's chart and identify price levels that investors will likely be watching. Since bottoming out in early April, Gap shares have trended sharply higher, reclaiming both the 50- and 200-day moving averages along the way. More recently, however, the stock ran into selling pressure near prominent peaks that formed on the chart in March and June last year. Interestingly, the drop occurred on increasing trading volume, indicating that some larger market participants locked in profits ahead of the retailer's quarterly results. Selling accelerated Friday, pushing the relative strength index (RSI) below overbought territory for the first time since mid May. Let's identify support levels on Gap's chart worth watching and point out a major overhead area to monitor during future recovery efforts. Coming into today's session, $25 was a key support level to monitor, but that was quickly breached and bulls haven't been able to defend it. The next level to watch is around $22. This area provides a confluence of support near the key moving averages and a horizontal line that connects multiple peaks and troughs on the chart extending back to December 2023. A deeper correction in the stock could bring lower support at $19 into play. Investors may seek to accumulate shares at this location near a trendline that links a series of corresponding trading activity on the chart between January last year and April this year. During recovery efforts, investors should keep a close eye on the $29 level. This area on Gap's chart would likely attract significant attention near the May high, which sits just below last June's notable peak. The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info. As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities. Read the original article on Investopedia Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Ethereum Price Prediction - What could affect ETH''s future price?
Ethereum price prediction reflects a balance of bullish technical momentum, upcoming protocol upgrades, and regulatory tailwinds, though the asset must overcome key resistance levels and mounting competitive pressures to maintain its growth trajectory. - Pectra upgrade boosts scalability and staking efficiency - $2,700–$2,800 resistance pivotal for next bullish leg - CLARITY Act progress could reduce regulatory uncertainty - Institutional inflows via ETFs remain volatile The Pectra upgrade (activated May 2025) introduced critical improvements:- EIP-7251: Raised validator staking cap to 2,048 ETH, streamlining operations for institutions- EIP-7702: Enabled smart contract-like functionality for standard wallets, improving user experience- EIP-7691: Doubled blob capacity for L2s, reducing fees by ~40% post-upgrade These changes have already driven a 20% increase in Total Value Locked (TVL) to $61.8B and improved network efficiency metrics. ETH faces a decisive battle at $2,700–$2,800:- Bullish: Ascending triangle pattern suggests breakout to $3,200–$3,300 if resistance breaks- Bearish: Failure to hold $2,465 support could trigger correction to $2,100–$2,200- Indicators: RSI (65) shows room for upside, but MACD histogram remains negative (-18.71) The 200-day EMA at $2,694 and Fibonacci 0.618 level ($2,966) are key technical markers. CLARITY Act: Bipartisan bill clarifying SEC/CFTC roles may reduce regulatory friction for ETH-based products MiCA Compliance: Santander's Openbank launching EU crypto services could drive institutional adoption ETF Dynamics: Spot ETH ETFs saw $435M inflows in May but average holders remain 21% underwater, creating sell pressure risk Ethereum price prediction hinges on the asset's ability to turn key technical resistance into support, while leveraging protocol upgrades and improving regulatory clarity. The $2,700–$2,800 zone is pivotal this week—a confirmed breakout could support bullish targets, whereas a rejection may signal continued consolidation. Will Ethereum's developer momentum outpace Solana's user growth in the L1 race? Ethereum price prediction for mid-2025 leans cautiously bullish, supported by institutional adoption and strong technical resilience. However, recent market volatility and evolving regulatory shifts continue to moderate investor optimism. - Bullish catalysts: Arthur Hayes' $5K prediction, ETF inflows, and Santander's crypto expansion. - Bearish pressures: $750B liquidations, ETH ETF investors' -21% unrealized losses, and macro uncertainty. - Critical levels: $2,700 resistance seen as make-or-break for near-term momentum. Traders and institutions are split:- Optimists highlight Ethereum's 45% 30-day price surge (to $2,629) and nine straight days of ETF inflows ($435.6M since May 16). Arthur Hayes' $5,000 forecast and Banco Santander's stablecoin plans fuel confidence in ETH's utility.- Skeptics note $660M long liquidations (May 30) and ETH spot ETF holders' average cost basis at $3,300–$3,500, creating sell-pressure risks. Regulatory clarity: The bipartisan CLARITY Act could streamline SEC/CFTC roles, potentially boosting ETH's institutional appeal. Technical thresholds: Repeated $2,700 rejections (May 29–30) contrast with bullish chart patterns mirroring early 2024's breakout setup. Macro risks: U.S. GDP contraction and PCE inflation data (May 30) heightened volatility, with ETH dipping -4.55% in 24 hours. Arthur Hayes (ex-BitMEX CEO): Calls ETH 'the most despised L1,' predicting $4K–$5K in 2025 via contrarian positioning. Fidelity analysts: Flag ETH's MVRV Z-Score (-0.18) as undervalued, though warn of 2022-like extended declines. Glassnode: Spotlights ETH ETF investors' $2.94B inflows since July 2024 but warns of 'substantial underwater' positions. Ethereum price prediction hinges on whether institutional tailwinds can outweigh technical and macroeconomic headwinds. A sustained close above $2,700 would confirm bullish momentum. What's next: Can Ethereum decouple from Bitcoin's dominance (63.07%) if the CLARITY Act passes? To get the latest update on Eth, visit our Ethereum currency page. Content created: 30th May 2025 Disclaimer: Content generated by CMC AI. CMC AI can make mistakes, please DYOR. Not financial advice. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Watch These Gap Price Levels as Stock Plunges After Retailer Warns of Tariff Hit
Gap shares plunged Friday after the apparel retailer cautioned that tariffs will weigh on profit this year, overshadowing quarterly results that topped Wall Street expectations. The stock had previously run into selling pressure near prominent peaks that formed on the chart in March and June last year, indicating that some larger market participants locked in profits ahead of the retailer's quarterly results. Investors should watch crucial support levels on Gap's chart around $22 and $19, while also monitoring a major overhead area near $ Inc. (GAP) shares plunged Friday after the apparel retailer cautioned that tariffs will weigh on profit this year, overshadowing quarterly results that topped Wall Street expectations. The company behind brands including Old Navy, Banana Republic, Athletica and its namesake label said baseline import duties could dent operating income by between $100 million and $150 million this year. Leading into the company's earnings report, Gap shares had rallied 65% from their early-April low and gained 18% since the start of the year, boosted by the retailer's recent efforts to reinvigorate its brands and drive sales growth. The stock was down 19% in afternoon trading Friday at around $22.50 Below, let's break down the technicals on Gap's chart and identify price levels that investors will likely be watching. Since bottoming out in early April, Gap shares have trended sharply higher, reclaiming both the 50- and 200-day moving averages along the way. More recently, however, the stock ran into selling pressure near prominent peaks that formed on the chart in March and June last year. Interestingly, the drop occurred on increasing trading volume, indicating that some larger market participants locked in profits ahead of the retailer's quarterly results. Selling accelerated Friday, pushing the relative strength index (RSI) below overbought territory for the first time since mid May. Let's identify support levels on Gap's chart worth watching and point out a major overhead area to monitor during future recovery efforts. Coming into today's session, $25 was a key support level to monitor, but that was quickly breached and bulls haven't been able to defend it. The next level to watch is around $22. This area provides a confluence of support near the key moving averages and a horizontal line that connects multiple peaks and troughs on the chart extending back to December 2023. A deeper correction in the stock could bring lower support at $19 into play. Investors may seek to accumulate shares at this location near a trendline that links a series of corresponding trading activity on the chart between January last year and April this year. During recovery efforts, investors should keep a close eye on the $29 level. This area on Gap's chart would likely attract significant attention near the May high, which sits just below last June's notable peak. The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info. As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities. Read the original article on Investopedia
