Latest news with #RayAttrill
Wall Street Journal
04-08-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
U.S. Dollar Index Weakens Amid Rising Fed Rate-Cut Expectations
0040 GMT — The U.S. Dollar Index weakens in early trade amid rising expectations of Fed rate cuts that would diminish the allure of U.S. fixed-income assets. The greenback has been hit by several developments, including the weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, NAB's Ray Attrill says in a commentary. The Fed Funds futures market boosted odds of a 25bps rate cut by the Fed in September to 88% from around 40% before the nonfarm payrolls report, the head of FX Research says. Also, the resignation of Fed governor Kugler has spurred prospects of broader support on the Fed's Board for lower rates sooner rather than later, Attrill adds. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.3% lower at 98.842, LSEG data show. (
Reuters
29-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Euro struggles after reality check on US-EU trade deal
SINGAPORE, July 29 (Reuters) - The euro struggled to recoup its steep losses on Tuesday as investors sobered up to the fact that terms of the trade deal between the U.S. and the European Union favoured the former and hardly lifted the economic outlook of the bloc. France, on Monday, called the framework trade agreement a "dark day" for Europe, saying the bloc had caved in to U.S. President Donald Trump with an unbalanced deal that slapped a headline 15% tariff on EU goods. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said his economy would suffer "significant" damage due to the agreed tariffs. The euro slid 1.3% in the previous session, its sharpest one-day percentage fall in over two months, on worries about growth and as euro-area government bond yields fell. The common currency failed to recoup its losses and last traded 0.02% lower at $1.1584. "It hasn't taken long for markets to conclude that this relatively good news is still, in absolute terms, bad news as far as the near term implications for euro zone growth are concerned," said Ray Attrill, head of FX research at National Australia Bank. "The deal has been roundly condemned by France while others - including German Chancellor Merz - are playing up the negative consequences for exporters, and with that, economic growth." The slide in the euro in turn boosted the dollar, which jumped 1% against a basket of currencies overnight. The dollar held on to gains on Tuesday and knocked sterling to a two-month low of $1.3338. The yen edged 0.2% higher to 148.22 per dollar. The dollar index steadied at 98.66. "While the U.S. dollar's strength ... may reflect the perception that the new U.S.-EU deal is lopsided in favour of the U.S., the U.S. dollar's strength may also reflect a feeling that the U.S. is re-engaging with the EU and with its major allies," said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. Still, Trump said on Monday most trading partners that do not negotiate separate trade deals would soon face tariffs of 15% to 20% on their exports to the United States, well above the broad 10% tariff he set in April. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar rose 0.04% to $0.6524, while the New Zealand dollar was little changed at $0.5970. The onshore yuan touched a one-week low of 7.1794 per dollar, with investors awaiting the outcome of trade talks between Washington and Beijing. Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials met in Stockholm on Monday for more than five hours of talks aimed at resolving long-standing economic disputes at the centre of a trade war between the world's top two economies, seeking to extend a truce by three months. Apart from trade negotiations, investors' focus this week is also on rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Both central banks are expected to stand pat on rates, but traders will watch subsequent comments to gauge the timing of their next moves.
The Star
28-07-2025
- Business
- The Star
Hedging by Australia's pension funds set to boost local currency
Providing a shield: A worker near the Opera House in Sydney. Tariff risks and bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates should weaken the greenback. — AFP SYDNEY: The Australian dollar is set for further gains as the nation's biggest pension funds have reason to boost hedging of their US assets to shield them from policy uncertainties. Tariff risks and bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates should weaken the greenback, according to Ray Attrill, head of foreign-exchange strategy at National Australian Bank. Aussie pension funds may then have to increase currency hedging for their US assets, he said. 'I'm reasonably convinced we will get a 'risk negative' response to the reality of a much more draconian tariff regime globally than we have today,' said Attrill, who expects the Aussie to rise by almost 3% by year-end. Australian super funds play a critical role in underpinning demand for the local dollar, given their A$4.1 trillion (US$2.7 trillion) asset base and offshore exposure. There are also signs that some, including AustralianSuper, are reconsidering their allocations to the US as President Donald Trump attempts to remake global trade. The Aussie, which has risen against most its Group-of-10 peers this month, may also get a boost from second-quarter inflation data due on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) unexpected decision to keep rates on hold this month has helped maintain a base for the currency, and 'Aussie dollar/US dollar remains well supported above key moving averages around 0.64,' said Troy Fraser, head of foreign-exchange sales for Australia and New Zealand at Citigroup Inc. Faster-than-expected inflation may see traders dial back their current bets for more than two quarter-point rate cuts by the RBA this year, especially as the central bank has said it's pursuing a 'cautious and gradual' policy stance. The Australian dollar 'remains on track to meet or exceed our year-end target of 0.67,' Lachlan Dynan, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note to clients last week. Increased super fund hedging is 'an upside risk' for the currency, he added. — Bloomberg
Bloomberg
27-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Hedging by Australia's Pension Funds Set to Boost Local Dollar
The Australian dollar is set for further gains as the nation's biggest pension funds have reason to boost hedging of their US assets to shield them from policy uncertainties. Tariff risks and bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates should weaken the greenback, according to Ray Attrill, head of foreign-exchange strategy at National Australian Bank in Sydney. Aussie pension funds may then have to increase currency hedging for their US assets, he said.
Wall Street Journal
25-07-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Asian Currencies Consolidate as Traders Digest Mixed Signals
0030 GMT — Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar in the morning session as traders digest mixed signals. Flash PMI data for the Eurozone, U.K., and the U.S. painted a mixed picture, NAB's Ray Attrill says in a commentary. The other notable data was U.S. initial jobless claims, which were stronger than expected, the head of FX Research says. Meanwhile, President Trump said that the U.S. is in the process of making a deal with Europe, Attrill adds. USD/KRW edges 0.1% lower to 1,371.63; USD/SGD is little changed at 1.2777; AUD/USD is 0.1% higher at 0.6594. (
