Latest news with #RayAttrill
Wall Street Journal
2 days ago
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Asian Currencies Consolidate; Fed Rate-Cut Prospects May Support
0024 GMT — Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar in the early session. However, Fed rate-cut prospects spurred by the disappointing U.S. economic data released overnight may support. Activity among U.S. services firms sank unexpectedly in May, according to the Institute for Supply Management's PMI. ADP National Employment Report showed only 37,000 jobs were created in May, the slowest pace of private-sector hiring in more than two years. U.S. money market pricing for a September Fed rate cut is now 97% priced, NAB's Head of FX Research Ray Attrill says, citing the weak data. USD/JPY is steady at 142.77; AUD/USD is little changed at 0.6494. (
Khaleej Times
26-05-2025
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Euro vaults to one-month high after Trump U-turn on EU tariffs
The euro hit a one-month high against the dollar on Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump backed down from threatened 50% duties on European Union shipments from June 1, after the bloc asked for time to "reach a good deal." The dollar continued its decline against a broad swathe of other currencies as Trump's policy reversals, as well as his sweeping spending and tax-cut bill currently in legislation, turned investors off from U.S. assets. "The 'Sell America' theme, which obviously was the dominant theme back in April, is back on show," said Ray Attrill, head of FX research at National Australia Bank. "Markets have probably taken the view - and probably rightly so - that where we land eventually on a tariff situation between the U.S. and the EU is not going to be at 50%, but how we get there is frankly anybody's guess at the moment." The euro climbed as much as 0.55% to reach $1.1418 for the first time since April 29. It was last up 0.36% on the day at $1.1394, bringing gains for the year so far to 10%. Sterling rose by 0.39% to its highest level since February 2022 and was last up 0.25% on the day at $1.3574. The safe-haven yen and Swiss franc were overall weak as market sentiment improved, but they still appreciated against the U.S. dollar. The greenback slipped as much as 0.24% to 142.23 yen , the lowest level this month, and edged to a 2-1/2-week low of 0.8193 franc. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the currency against six other currencies, sank 0.15% to 98.93, extending last week's 1.9% decline. Trump announced the decision to put off EU tariffs until July 9 on Sunday, following a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who asked for more time to reach an agreement. July 9 is the end of the 90-day pause on Trump's April 2 "Liberation Day" levies on the EU and most other trade partners. The de-escalation, just two days after Trump issued the threat, is a stark reminder of how suddenly U.S. trade policy can turn, even as it encouraged investors that deals can be struck and calmed worries about a global downturn. "Following Trump's latest U-turn, we will, of course, have to wait and see what happens next. It is possible that a deal with the European Union will be reached by 9 July," Commerzbank currency strategist Michael Pfister said. "However, it is questionable what has changed in terms of the fundamental problems following a phone call. One thing should be clear after Friday's announcement: the brief respite from tariffs that we enjoyed was only temporary," he said. In a possible nod to fiscal worries among investors, Trump also said on Sunday that his sweeping spending and tax cut bill is likely to see "significant" changes in the Senate. The House of Representatives' version of the tax bill is calculated to add about $3.8 trillion to the federal government's $36.2 trillion in debt over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office. "What seems clear from the reconciliation bill ... is that Trump and (Treasury Secretary Scott) Bessent have shifted tactics, swiveling hard from fiscal conservatism and reduced spending to an outright pro-growth policy stance," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. "It is fast becoming a consensus view that the USD is on the path to a multi-year decline."
CNA
26-05-2025
- Business
- CNA
Euro jumps, dollar swoons as Trump relents on EU tariff threat
TOKYO :The euro jumped along with risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar on Monday after President Donald Trump backed down from threatened 50 per cent duties on European Union shipments from June 1, after the bloc asked for time to "reach a good deal." The dollar continued its slump against a broad swathe of currency peers as Trump's policy reversals, as well as his sweeping spending and tax-cut bill currently in legislation, turned investors off from U.S. assets. "The 'Sell America' theme, which obviously was the dominant theme back in April, is back on show," said Ray Attrill, head of FX research at National Australia Bank. "Markets have probably taken the view - and probably rightly so - that where we land eventually on a tariff situation between the U.S. and the EU is not going to be at 50 per cent, but how we get there is frankly anybody's guess at the moment." The euro climbed as much as 0.55 per cent to reach $1.1418 for the first time since April 29. The Aussie jumped 0.58 per cent to $0.6537, a level not seen since November 25. The New Zealand dollar soared 0.75 per cent to the highest since November 7 at $0.6031. Sterling advanced as much as 0.38 per cent to scale its highest level since February 2022. The safe-haven yen and Swiss franc were overall weak as market sentiment improved, but they still appreciated against the embattled U.S. dollar. The greenback slipped as much as 0.24 per cent to 142.23 yen, the lowest level this month, and edged to a 2-1/2-week low of 0.8193 franc. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major rivals, sank 0.3 per cent to 98.813, extending a 1.9 per cent tumble from last week. Trump announced the decision to put off EU tariffs until July 9 on Sunday, following a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who asked for more time to reach an agreement. July 9 is the end of the 90-day pause on Trump's April 2 "Liberation Day" levies on the EU and most other trade partners. The de-escalation just two days after Trump issued the threat is a stark reminder of how suddenly U.S. trade policy can turn, even as it encouraged investors that deals can be struck and calmed worries about a global downturn. In a possible nod to fiscal worries among investors, Trump also said on Sunday that his sweeping spending and tax cut bill is likely to see "significant" changes in the Senate. The House of Representatives' version of the tax bill is calculated to add about $3.8 trillion to the federal government's $36.2 trillion in debt over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office. "What seems clear from the reconciliation bill ... is that Trump and (Treasury Secretary Scott) Bessent have shifted tactics, swiveling hard from fiscal conservatism and reduced spending to an outright pro-growth policy stance," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.
Business Recorder
08-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Australia, NZ dollars bounce on hopes for progress in US tariff stalemate
SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars bounced on Thursday, as hopes for progress in US trade talks globally helped offset a more hawkish outlook on US interest rates that lifted the greenback overnight. Risk assets received a boost after President Donald Trump posted there would be a news conference on Thursday to announce a deal with a 'big' country, reportedly the UK. That helped the Aussie rise 0.5% to $0.6456, paring a 1% loss suffered overnight which had knocked it from a five-month top of $0.6515. The kiwi firmed 0.4% to $0.5966 , after slipping 1.1% the previous session. Both had retreated after the Federal Reserve warned of two-sided risks to the economy and inflation, which led markets to scale back the chance of a June rate cut to just 20%, from 60% a week earlier. The shift is partly due to expectations US tariffs will push up inflation in the short term, making it harder for the Fed to use rates to avoid an economic downturn. Longer term, this stagflation risk could be bearish for the greenback. 'It's part of the apparent loss of US economic exceptionalism seen since the start of the year,' said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB. 'There may also be a broader exodus from long USD positions underway, from exporters to the US previously happy to park receipts in USD deposits, or bond investors seeing returns on unhedged holdings going negative as the USD had fallen.' As a result, Attrill has lifted his outlook for the Aussie to $0.6600 by mid-year and to $0.7000 by year-end. Australian dollar hits new five-month top on US-China trade talks Investors still assume the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% when it meets on May 20, given a slowdown in inflation and softness in consumer spending. Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe inflation will also be dragged down by Chinese exporters discounting prices on goods that would normally have gone to the United States. 'The lower path for inflation gives the RBA scope for further easing, particularly given the balance of risks around economic activity has also shifted to the downside,' they said in a note. They expect cuts in May, July and August to take rates to a floor of 3.25%. Markets have rates at 3.0% or lower by the end of the year.
New Straits Times
07-05-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Stocks rally on US-China talks, China rate cut
SINGAPORE: US stock futures and Chinese markets rose on Wednesday, as investors cheered news of a meeting between top US and Chinese trade officials as a chance to tone down the tariffs, while China cut interest rates and vowed to support stock markets. "My sense is this will be about de-escalation," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said of the meeting, scheduled for the weekend in Switzerland. S&P 500 futures rose about 0.9 per cent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 1.7 per cent by mid-morning. China blue chips rose 0.5 per cent and Japan's Nikkei was broadly flat. "It suggests that there is perhaps a willingness and enthusiasm on both sides to meet at a high level, so it can't be anything but positive I would have thought," said National Australia Bank's head of foreign exchange research Ray Attrill. "It's ostensibly positive for Asian FX generally." The dollar rose slightly on the yen and euro, while China's rate cuts weighed on the yuan and knocked the China-sensitive Australian dollar back below 65 US cents. South Korea's won, which had been rallying hard with a broad surge in Asian currencies, fell back by more than 1 per cent. Gold fell 1.4 per cent and oil was about 0.5 per cent higher. China's central bank governor on Wednesday flagged a 10 basis point cut in its benchmark interest rate and a 50 basis point cut to bank reserve requirements - sending more cash into the banking system. Simultaneously the financial regulator announced an expanded scheme to send insurance investment into the stock market and promised more steps to support property markets, which investors took as a signal of authorities acting in concert. "It's kind of reminiscent of the joint press conference starting the stimulus euphoria in September. So that's positive," said Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier in Singapore. The US Federal Reserve meets to set interest rates later on Wednesday, with expectations for cuts being dialled down. Markets imply nearly no chance of a move on Wednesday and only a 33 per cent chance of a cut in June, down from 64 per cent a month ago. The heaviest fighting in more than two decades has erupted between nuclear-armed neighbours India and Pakistan, with shelling and gunfire over the frontier in Kashmir and India striking targets inside Pakistan. "It adds another layer to geopolitical tensions," said NAB's Attrill, and would likely push down on India's rupee. The euro had support above $1.13 with German conservative leader Friedrich Merz elected chancellor in a second round of voting after his alliance with the Social Democrats was dealt a surprise defeat in the first attempt.
