Latest news with #Recession
Bloomberg
4 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Surveillance: Tariffs and Debt
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul Sweeney June 2nd, 2025 Featuring: 1) Stephen Stanley, Chief Economist at Santander, joins for an extended conversation on the outlook for the US economy, lower consumer spending, and potential for a shallow recession in the US. Global stocks started the new month under pressure due to a flare-up in global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty. Gold is heading for its biggest gain in almost four weeks as geopolitical and trade tensions revived demand for haven assets. 2) Kathy Jones, Chief Investment Strategist, Fixed Income at Charles Schwab, discusses bond market warnings and why the Fed won't be coming to the rescue any time soon. The dollar fell 0.5%, extending a streak of five monthly losses, while Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year rate up four basis points to 4.44% in the early part of the morning as risk appetite dissipates. 3) Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, talks about the House bill "debt fiasco" and why markets haven't fully awaken to the debt and deficit problem in the US. It comes as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the US "is never going to default" as the deadline for increasing the federal debt ceiling approaches. Bessent declines to specify an "X date" for when the Treasury will run out of cash, but says the goal is to bring the deficit down over the next four years. 4) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, talks about President Trump threatening an increase to steel and aluminum tariffs, how the tax bill could be transformed in the Senate, and other DC headlines. Uncertainty prompted by President Donald Trump's trade agenda picked up after China and the US accused each other of violating a trade deal concluded last month. Trump also said he would double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Meanwhile, Ukraine staged a dramatic series of strikes across Russia, deploying drones hidden in trucks deep inside the country to hit strategic airfields. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including an NYT story on Gen Z's interest in chain restaurants and a Business Insider story on AI already taking human jobs.
Telegraph
14-05-2025
- Automotive
- Telegraph
You must work harder, new chancellor tells Germans
Germans must work harder and more efficiently in order to fix the stagnating economy, Friedrich Merz, the new chancellor, has said. People should consider giving up their four-day working weeks and work-life balance to become more 'efficient', the leader of the centre-Right Christian Democrats [CDU] said. 'We must work more, and above all more efficiently, in this country,' he said. 'With a four-day week and work-life balance, we won't be able to maintain this country's prosperity.' Mr Merz made the remarks ahead of a major speech on Wednesday afternoon, where he is expected to outline his plan to breathe life into the German economy. It comes after a leading German think tank raised the idea of sacrificing an annual public holiday to support the country's plans for rearmament. The Ifo Institute said Germans should work more and take less time off, a goal that could be achieved by a reduction in the number of annual public holidays, which varies from state to state. Mr Merz, 69m was sworn in as chancellor last week, having comfortably won February's general elections on a pro-business platform and a vow to heavily reduce migration levels. A former BlackRock executive, Mr Merz fears that the German employment system is too generous and too soft, to the point of restricting productivity. Germany's economy, the largest in Europe, is struggling with a third consecutive year of recession, in addition to a shortage in skilled workers and the decline of its car industry. About one in three German industries say they are suffering from a serious shortage in skilled workers and are trying to address the shortfall. Increased competition from China, and disappointing results in the electric car market, have also dented Germany's economic prowess. While previous governments sought to address the worker shortage by wooing migrants from India, Mr Merz capitalised on anti-immigrant sentiment in Germany to secure his election victory. He has also introduced reforms that will allow Germany to take on unprecedented amounts of national debt, as part of efforts to massively increase funding for the Bundeswehr, the German army. The CDU has long argued that poor worker productivity, linked to shorter working weeks, has also contributed to the slump. Mr Merz says he has already agreed with his coalition partner, the Social Democrats [SPD] to an amendment of the 40-hour working week that will make it easier for Germans to work overtime. According to the German Economic Institute (IW), the German economy is expected to contract by a further 0.2 per cent this year and slip into a third year of recession.
Arab News
14-05-2025
- Business
- Arab News
Trump's approval rating rises as Americans worry less about recession
WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump's approval rating rose this week as Americans worried less about his handling of the economy and prospects of a recession, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Tuesday. The two-day poll showed 44 percent of respondents approved of the Republican leader's performance, up from 42 percent in a prior Reuters/Ipsos survey carried out April 25-27. The poll had a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Approval of Trump's economic stewardship rose to 39 percent from 36 percent. Trump began his term with a 47 percent approval rating, and saw his popularity tick lower as Americans worried about a series of trade wars he launched since taking office on January 20. Trump's moves to hike tariffs to historic levels on major trading partners, notably China, fueled stock market declines as many economists predicted a recession was looming. In recent weeks, Trump has eased back on his sharpest trade actions and announced on Monday morning he was slashing tariffs on China. The benchmark S&P 500 stock index is up about 17 percent from its lowest closing of Trump's second administration, hit soon after he unveiled sweeping tariffs. Among the public, concerns about recession have also eased but remain high. Some 69 percent of respondents in the new poll said they were concerned about a recession, down from 76 percent in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted April 16-21. The share who said they worried about the stock market fell to 60 percent from 67 percent. Trump has said blame for the country's economic problems should fall on former President Joe Biden, his Democratic predecessor. Inflation surged during Biden's presidency amid the global economic chaos of the COVID-19 pandemic, but trended lower toward the end of his presidency. Annual price inflation cooled in April, the Labor Department said on Tuesday, though economists continue to warn that Trump's trade actions are likely to boost prices later in the year. In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, 59 percent of respondents said it would be Trump's fault if the economy falls into recession this year, compared to 37 percent who said it would be Biden's fault. The Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted nationwide online, surveyed 1,163 people.
Reuters
13-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Trump's approval rating rises to 44%; Americans worry less about recession
WASHINGTON, May 13 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's approval rating rose this week as Americans worried less about his handling of the economy and prospects of a recession, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Tuesday. The two-day poll showed 44% of respondents approved of the Republican leader's performance, up from 42% in a prior Reuters/Ipsos survey carried out April 25-27. The poll had a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Approval of Trump's economic stewardship rose to 39% from 36%. Trump began his term with a 47% approval rating, and saw his popularity tick lower as Americans worried about a series of trade wars he launched since taking office on January 20. Trump's moves to hike tariffs to historic levels on major trading partners, notably China, fueled stock market declines as many economists predicted a recession was looming. In recent weeks, Trump has eased back on his sharpest trade actions and announced on Monday morning he was slashing tariffs on China. The benchmark S&P 500 stock index (.SPX), opens new tab is up about 17% from its lowest closing of Trump's second administration, hit soon after he unveiled sweeping tariffs. Among the public, concerns about recession have also eased but remain high. Some 69% of respondents in the new poll said they were concerned about a recession, down from 76% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted April 16-21. The share who said they worried about the stock market fell to 60% from 67%. Trump has said blame for the country's economic problems should fall on former President Joe Biden, his Democratic predecessor. Inflation surged during Biden's presidency amid the global economic chaos of the COVID-19 pandemic, but trended lower toward the end of his presidency. Annual price inflation cooled in April, the Labor Department said on Tuesday, though economists continue to warn that Trump's trade actions are likely to boost prices later in the year. In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, 59% of respondents said it would be Trump's fault if the economy falls into recession this year, compared to 37% who said it would be Biden's fault. The Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted nationwide online, surveyed 1,163 people.
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Energy Market Assessment: Supply expectations high and demand expectations low
(Oil & Gas 360) – Supply Expectations High And Demand Expectations Low, Running Counter To U.S. Supply Demand Data Have The Consensus Set UP To Be Caught Short. The price of WTI crude oil back below $60 reflects much fear plus news that OPEC+ will increase production. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), + other world exporters announcing Monday, that production limits will be increased 411,000 barrels per day in June deflated the spot market price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil back below $60 per barrel (Figure 1, red line). More supply plus Inflation, Tariff, and Recession fears increasing uncertainty are also minimizing demand expectations and exaggerating down. While price expectations are extra depressed, crude oil inventory at Cushing (where futures contracts are delivered) is down extra low. Crude oil inventory at Cushing Oklahoma (where New York Mercantile Exchange [NYMEX] futures contracts are delivered), declining to extra low as the year began (Figure 2, red line), tugged the WTI spot price up to $80 per barrel (Figure 1). It then increasing to an early-April high helped deflate the price. Nevertheless, this inventory remains extra low, and we predict: decline is next. Oil bearishness is helped by the increase in total U.S. crude oil inventory since early January. Nevertheless, it is now 21.2 mmb less than last year. Total U.S. crude oil inventory declining to a multi-year low as the year began (Figure 3, red line) helped the price of WTI rise to $80 (Figure 1). It then increasing 31.4 million barrels (mmb) to 443.1 April 18 helped deflate. The drop back below $60, despite this inventory declining 4.7 mmb the last two weeks, encourages our conclusion that an exaggerated price-drop opportunity is in place. Oil bearishness is also helped by analysis thin helping most be unaware that more crude oil is next needed to fuel Summer. Refinery runs showing good year-over-year (YOY) growth October into January (Figure 4, red line versus blue) helped U.S. Commercial crude oil inventory show good YOY decline to January's low (Figure 3). YOY refinery run increase switching to decline mid-March helped pressure prices and expectations lower. Now, runs need to increase to fuel Summer, with hours of sunshine increasing and encouraging much getting out-and-about. By contributor Michael Smolinksi with Energy Directions The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Oil & Gas 360. Please consult with a professional before making any decisions based on the information provided here. The information presented in this article is not intended as financial advice. Contact Energy Directions for the full report. Please conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Sign in to access your portfolio
