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Al Jazeera
21 hours ago
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
Israel strikes may make Iran more determined to pursue nuclear programme
Israel's attacks on Iranian nuclear and military sites mark a significant escalation in regional tensions, and may reshape Tehran's nuclear calculus. The coordinated strikes killed several senior military and security officials, including the head of Iran's military Mohammad Bagheri, and the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami. 'One of the concerns in attacking the nuclear sites has been that setbacks could lead Iran to reconstitute their operations with a more determined effort to obtain a nuclear deterrent,' said Ali Vaez, an expert on Iran for the International Crisis Group (ICG). Iran has long had an internal debate among reformers and hardliners about whether to reach an agreement with the United States on its nuclear programme. '[The attacks] likely confirmed the position of hardliners and ultra hardliners who said that Iran was wasting its time to try and negotiate with the West … they said Iran can never negotiate from a position of weakness and appeasement,' said Reza H Akbari, an analyst on Iran at the Middle East Institute (MEI). Talks between Iran and the US have suffered from a large trust deficit after President Donald Trump unilaterally pulled out of the nuclear deal between Iran and several Western nations, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), during his first term in 2018. The JCPOA was orchestrated by Trump's predecessor Barack Obama and endorsed by the United Nations Security Council in 2015. It aimed to monitor Iran's nuclear programme to ensure it did not approach weaponisation levels. In exchange, some sanctions were lifted from Iran. While the deal was lauded as an achievement of diplomacy, Israel disapproved of the JCPOA. Ten years later, the US and Iran appeared interested in striking another similar deal. The former ostensibly did not want to get dragged into a regional war as tensions mounted across the Middle East, while the latter was again looking for much-needed sanction relief. But Israel's strikes on Iran, which were reportedly planned months in advance and with US approval, have scuttled any diplomatic solution in the short term, said Akbari. 'It's hard to imagine that someone in the shoes of Iran's supreme leader [Ali Khamenei] is not taking the side of hardliners after this,' he told Al Jazeera. In response to Israel's strikes, Iran has launched drones and ballistic missiles at Israel, with some hitting targets on the ground. In the past, Iran's deterrence against external aggression relied primarily on its self-described 'Axis of Resistance'. The axis consisted of powerful armed groups across the region, such as Lebanon's Hezbollah, as well as Syria under former President Bashar al-Assad. However, Hezbollah's capabilities were degraded significantly during the peak of its recent war with Israel, which lasted from September to late November last year. Al-Assad's fall in December, the culmination of a more than decade-long civil war in Syria, also compromised Iran's ability to resupply Hezbollah through Syria, as it used to do. Trump is now exploiting Iran's weakness by urging it to capitulate to a deal that would see it give up its nuclear programme, said Michael Stephens, an expert on regional response to Iran's nuclear programme with the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI), a defence think tank. On Friday, Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran must make a deal before there is 'nothing left' of the country and that the next Israeli attacks will be even 'more brutal'. Later that evening, Israel carried out more air strikes on Iran's military sites and nuclear facilities. 'There are no good options for [Iran] really,' said Stephens. 'Either Khamenei … orders his negotiators to compromise on the nuclear file or … he holds firm [and] more sites are hit and further targeted assassinations of high-level officials take place,' he told Al Jazeera. 'Either way, if Iran decides to sprint towards a bomb, it's going to be very, very difficult to do that now,' he added. Despite Iran's military weakness compared with the US and Israel, it is wary of giving up its nuclear programme, analysts told Al Jazeera. Negar Mortazavi, an expert on Iran with the Middle East Policy Institute (MEPI), said Iranian officials have long referred to the fate of former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, who agreed to give up his nuclear weapons programme in exchange for US sanction relief in 2003. The deal came after the US President George W Bush had launched his so-called 'War on Terror' after the September 11, 2001, attacks, which led to the invasion and prolonged occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan. At the time, Bush warned his partners and foes in the region that they were either 'with us or against us'. Eight years after Gaddafi gave up his nuclear programme, the US backed a pro-democracy uprising in Libya, which spiralled into an armed rebellion and led to Gaddafi's overthrow and eventual death. 'The [Libya] scenario is something that Iran has taken notice of, and they don't want to go down that path,' Mortazavi explained. She added that Iran may likely pull out from the JCPOA and try to quickly expand its nuclear programme in reaction to Israel's ongoing assault. 'Just how far and how soon Iran will expand its nuclear programme is unclear,' Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.
Japan Times
a day ago
- Politics
- Japan Times
A belligerent China hones its tools of intimidation
Amid turmoil elsewhere in the world, the steady expansion of China's military presence in waters surrounding Japan has been overlooked. Recent exercises underscore the ability of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to project power ever farther from the country's shores. When combined with the increasing tempo, sophistication and intensity of drills around Taiwan, China's intent could not be clearer: Beijing is signaling its growing capability and readiness to press its will on regional governments. Japan must do more to prepare. Regional and global attention has been focused on the steady creep of the Chinese military presence in the South China Sea. Especially fraught is the rising tension with the Philippines, which is engaged in a bitter dispute with China over territory in those waters, but Beijing has also antagonized other countries with claims in those waters, such as Vietnam and Indonesia. At the same time, the PLA has held a growing number of military exercises in and around Taiwan. The Chinese leadership is angered by the continued success of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party on the island, which Beijing claims is 'a renegade province' and whose political leadership continues to defy its calls for reunification with the mainland. China has been especially active around the island since former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, with the Eastern Theater Command's exercise program expanding from regular quarterly exercises to almost monthly operations. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te is the focus of particular anger and has been denounced for making 'rampant provocations for 'independence.'' Especially troubling are three major encirclement military exercises that the PLA has conducted since Lai took office a little over a year ago. The most recent consisted of two days of Strait Thunder-2025A, conducted in early April. They were intended to serve as 'a stern warning' to 'Taiwan independence' forces, reported China's Taiwan Affairs Office. The drills occurred in the middle and southern parts of the Taiwan Strait and focused, said the Eastern Theater Command's spokesperson, on 'joint blockade and control' operations and 'precision strikes on key targets,' such as ports and energy facilities. The Taiwanese Defense Ministry detected 76 Chinese warplanes, 13 PLA vessels and four China Coast Guard ships near Taiwan in 24 hours. Reportedly, 68 Chinese aircraft crossed the median line of the Strait, an informal demarcation of the waterway, the most since the 2022 exercise that followed Pelosi's visit. For the first time, Chinese coast guard vessels entered the 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone around the main island of Taiwan. The Defense Ministry criticized the exercises as 'aggressive, provocative and irresponsible.' The United States agreed, calling them 'irresponsible threats and military pressure operations near Taiwan' that 'exacerbate tensions and undermine cross-Strait peace and stability.' Japan's response was more tepid. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said the Japanese government was 'watching it (the drill) with serious interest,' and had conveyed its concern to Beijing about the exercises. Since the April exercises were Strait Thunder-2025A, at least one more — B — is expected later this year. Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, warned last month that these exercises are not drills but are 'rehearsals' for an invasion of the island. Other observers fear that they could be cover for an actual invasion. Japanese strategists are also worried about the growing capabilities of China's aircraft carriers. Three have been built, and the third, the Fujian, the most advanced in its fleet, has begun its sea trials and is set to be commissioned soon. As Jesse Johnson wrote in The Japan Times this week, the Beijing government has called it 'one of the most important' pieces of military hardware and central to the goal of ensuring that the PLA is a 'world-class military' by the middle of this century. The other two carriers, the Liaoning and the Shandong, this week conducted their first simultaneous operations in the Pacific. The 'routine exercises' were designed 'to test the forces' capabilities in far seas defense and joint operations.' The exercises represent a rapid expansion of Chinese capabilities — the two ships had their first dual-carrier drills in the South China Sea last October. And the Liaoning was observed off Minamitorishima, the first Chinese aircraft carrier to cross the so-called second island chain, a stretch of islands from Japan to Guam and the islands of Micronesia. That follows a string of other 'firsts' detailed by Johnson — the Liaoning's first operations in the East China Sea earlier this year and its first passage last September through a narrow waterway between Yonaguni and Iriomote islands in Okinawa Prefecture. While legal, that passage was denounced by a Japanese government spokesperson as 'totally unacceptable from the perspective of the security environment of Japan and the region.' When challenged, the Chinese response is invariably that its actions are consistent with international law and that the country only acts defensively, responding to the actions of other nations and never targeting any specific country. Defense Minister Gen Nakatani was right when he said that 'China is seeking to enhance the operational capabilities of its two aircraft carriers in distant maritime and airspace areas.' That characterization extends to the entire PLA and the various activities it has undertaken in recent years. Quite simply, China is honing its power projection capabilities. Beijing seeks to protect increasingly far-flung assets as well as shape regional geopolitical dynamics. The PLA is a tool to influence regional decision-making and the Chinese leadership is increasingly confident in its ability to do just that. Central to that ambition is both habituating the world, and regional governments in particular, to the exercise of Chinese power and then intimidating those governments into accommodating Chinese policy preferences whatever their national interests might be. While the world must accept Chinese actions — as long as they are in fact legal — it must not bend to the larger Chinese goal. This demands a more robust defense posture and doctrine that counters the PLA and deters Chinese aggression, whether conventional or through the use of 'hybrid' tactics that Beijing has used to rewrite the regional status quo. This requires money as well as a new strategy that adapts to the various dimensions of Chinese strategy and tactics. Japan must be prepared not only for deliberate acts, whether an attack or a quarantine, but also the inevitable accidents — collisions, misfires and other mistakes — that occur as China engages in exercises and accelerates its operational tempo. Ready and reliable communications channels with Beijing are a must. This also requires an aggressive diplomatic campaign that aligns and rallies like-minded countries to ensure the largest and most solid bulwark against Chinese revisionism. That will consist of both active and creative diplomacy as well as a readiness to use economic tools. It goes without saying that all this must be done in close cooperation and coordination with our ally, the United States. The Japan Times Editorial Board
