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Counting Covid's real toll in India
Counting Covid's real toll in India

India Today

timea day ago

  • Health
  • India Today

Counting Covid's real toll in India

(NOTE: This article was originally published in the India Today issue dated June 9, 2025)Covid-19 is back in the news because of a rise in the number of persons testing positive in different states of India as well as the release of government data on deaths that occurred in 2021, when the country was devastated by the Delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The recent spike in cases due to the less virulent JN.1 and BA.2 sub-lineages of Omicron is not a cause for panic, as no deaths have been reported. However, there is concern about the underestimation of Covid-related deaths in earlier official reports. Questions have been raised about why previous estimates were low and the marked interstate variations in the gap between reported Covid deaths and Covid-attributable excess deaths in estimates of Covid-related deaths in 2020 and 2021 differed from modelled estimates of the World Health Organization (480,000 versus 4.7 million). Data released by the Registrar General of India (RGI) now reveal an excess of 2.1 million deaths in 2021 compared to 2020—a 26 per cent rise. The usual causes of death would not have substantially changed over the year, and road accident-related deaths would have actually decreased due to mobility restrictions. So, it is likely that many of the unexplained excess deaths were Covid-related. That would suggest that earlier official estimates were low. We must bear in mind that those estimates were made when usual data-gathering systems were under siege by a pandemic, which demanded action on many fronts. advertisement While the fact of death is relatively easy to document, the cause of death may be difficult to ascertain due to poor certification practices of doctors, especially for out-of-hospital deaths. When there are associated conditions like cardiovascular disease or diabetes, death is often attributed to them even if Covid had supervened to cause serious complications. Healthcare providers, in public and private sectors, need better training to improve certification practices. Where certification is dubious, 'verbal autopsy' studies can be conducted to identify the probable cause of death with standardised questions. These can be performed by trained frontline health workers and women's self-help groups with guidance from staff and students of nearby medical colleges. Central and state governments must mandate, promote and institutionalise such partnerships between the district health systems and co-located medical colleges. Getting the total death counts right is important too. Both the Civil Registration System (which gathers data on a continuous basis) and the Sample Registration System (which conducts periodic sample surveys) need to be strengthened through better training. Accuracy and timeliness can both be improved through the introduction of algorithmically guided digital registration methods. Mathematically estimating 'excess deaths' through year-to-year comparisons can help overcome ambiguities on the cause of death and fill data gaps. Even for measuring heat wave-related deaths, estimation of excess deaths is proving by the recent RGI data, northern and western Indian states exhibited large data discrepancies, appearing to have underreported Covid deaths. Kerala was the best performer, with the least gap between reported Covid deaths and estimated excess deaths. The state would have drawn strength from a well-functioning primary care system, high population literacy, strong community engagement, active role of panchayats and NGOs during the pandemic, as well as gearing up of health system efficiency during the 2018 Nipah virus outbreak. Even as we debate the Covid numbers, we must strengthen community-connected health systems across India.—Prof. K. Srinath Reddy is a cardiologist, epidemiologist and public health to India Today MagazineTune InMust Watch advertisement

Election Commission's one-point dashboard to become operational before Bihar election
Election Commission's one-point dashboard to become operational before Bihar election

The Hindu

time5 days ago

  • Politics
  • The Hindu

Election Commission's one-point dashboard to become operational before Bihar election

The new, integrated dashboard developed by the Election Commission (EC) to provide all services for stakeholders on one platform is set to become operational during the current round of Assembly byelections and the upcoming Bihar Assembly election. The new integrated dashboard, named 'ECINET', is aimed at providing all services for stakeholders at a single point, instead of the over 40 apps or websites that exist now. EC sources said that some modules of ECINET will be made available during the current byelection process and by the time the Bihar Assembly election is held, the entire Dashboard will be available for use. Byelections in five Assembly seats in four States would be held on June 19, 2025. The ECINET is among the slew of initiatives taken by the poll body since February this year to standardise poll management amid charges made by Opposition parties over myriad issues ranging from anomalies in electoral rolls to duplicate Voter ID card numbers. It was on February 19 that Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar assumed office. Some of the other initiatives taken by the EC since then include direct integration of death registration data from the Registrar General of India to enable timely and verified removal of deceased electors from the rolls and training of grassroot polling officers to streamline poll management. The EC has also revised the maximum number of electors per polling station from 1,500 to 1,200. Additional polling booths will be established in densely populated areas such as gated communities and high-rise buildings. The commission aims to ensure that no voter is required to travel more than 2 km to cast their vote. Voter Information Slips have been redesigned for clarity, with enhanced visibility of serial and part numbers. Mobile Deposit Facility will also be set up at the entrance of every polling station, a senior EC official said. The EC has also facilitated 4,719 meetings across the country with participation from over 28,000 political party representatives. These include 40 meetings at the Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) level, 800 at the District Election Officer (DEO) level, and 3,879 at the Electoral Registration Officer (ERO) level. The commission has also held consultations in New Delhi with leaders of recognised political parties, including the Aam Aadmi Party, Bharatiya Janata Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Communist Party of India (Marxist), and National People's Party, with more meetings with national and State political parties planned after the current byelections. Training programmes have been conducted for Booth Level Officers (BLOs), BLO Supervisors, and Booth Level Agents (BLAs). Over 3,500 BLOs and BLO Supervisors have been trained and these supervisors will in turn train the larger BLO network of over 10.5 lakh functionaries.

CM ‘voice of community':Sanjay Nishad
CM ‘voice of community':Sanjay Nishad

Time of India

time19-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Time of India

CM ‘voice of community':Sanjay Nishad

Gorakhpur: An awareness rally, led by Uttar Pradesh fisheries minister and NISHAD party chief Sanjay Nishad was taken out in Gorakhpur on Monday. Addressing reporters, Sanjay Nishad made a sharp remark, stating, "Jo Nishad Party ka jhanda uthae wahi mera bhai hai, jo na uthae wahi kasai hai" — equating those not supporting the party with butchers. He further elaborated that individuals from the community who do not chant 'Jai Nishad Raj' or align with the rival political outfits are harming the community's progress, similar to butchers slaughtering animals. Referring to former minister Jamuna Nishad, he claimed that slogans like 'Jai Bhim' and 'Jai Samajwad' had yielded little benefit, emphasizing the need for community solidarity under the NISHAD Party banner. The minister praised Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath , calling him the "voice of the Nishad community ". He noted that Yogi, even during his tenure as an MP, had raised the demand for granting SC status to the Nishad community, and now, as the CM, the expectations are higher than ever. He alleged that despite a directive from the Registrar General of India (RGI), implementation at the state level remains pending and urged the Bharatiya Janata Party to honour its promise. Highlighting welfare initiatives, he said the fisheries department would extend support to the community members in areas including education, healthcare (even without an Ayushman card), and assistance in marriage.

Were the 21 lakh ‘excess deaths' in 2021 caused by the Covid19 pandemic?
Were the 21 lakh ‘excess deaths' in 2021 caused by the Covid19 pandemic?

The Hindu

time19-05-2025

  • Health
  • The Hindu

Were the 21 lakh ‘excess deaths' in 2021 caused by the Covid19 pandemic?

After a nearly four-year delay, the Central government finally released a whole lot of reports about India's births, deaths and health indicators for the year 2021. Two of these key reports, released by the Registrar General of India, were the number of deaths registered, and the medical certification of the causes of deaths. What did these reports find? In 2021, the year of the brutal and devastating Delta strain of Covid-19, India recorded 21 lakh more deaths than it did in 2020. As of May 19 this year however, the COVID-19 dashboard maintained by the Union Ministry of Health says that the total number of Covid19 deaths in India so far stands at 5,33,666. So what caused these 21 lakh excess deaths? If the pandemic had not occurred would such a high number of deaths have been recorded? Why is there such a wide difference among States on the number of Covid fatalities vs the number of registered deaths that year? What does medical certification of causes tell us? And do we need a better system to track, register and attribute causes of death in India? Guest: Bhramar Mukherjee Senior Associate Dean of Public Health Data Science and Data Equity; Anna M.R. Lauder Professor of Biostatistics; Professor of Epidemiology (Chronic Diseases) and of Statistics and Data Science Host: Zubeda Hamid Edited by Sharmada Venkatasubramanian Listen to more In Focus podcasts:

A caste census is not a silver bullet for social justice
A caste census is not a silver bullet for social justice

The Hindu

time18-05-2025

  • Politics
  • The Hindu

A caste census is not a silver bullet for social justice

Census data have long been the backbone of public policymaking in India, offering critical insights into sectors such as health, education, employment and housing. In this context, the Narendra Modi government's recent announcement to include caste enumeration in the upcoming national Census has drawn considerable attention. For many, it represents a long-overdue move toward collecting substantive statistical data that are necessary to better address the needs of the Other Backward Classes (OBCs). However, the disproportionate emphasis placed on the caste census raises concerns about the intent and the commitment of the ruling dispensation. It suggests that the formulation of welfare policies for marginalised communities has been unjustifiably deferred under the pretext of awaiting more precise data. The merit of caste census Proponents of a caste census argue that it will provide empirical grounding to assess the socio-economic status of various caste groups, particularly the OBCs. They believe that this data will enable more targeted affirmative action and help the state legitimise welfare programmes in the eyes of the judiciary, which has sometimes questioned the reliability of surveys and commission reports. Additionally, disaggregated data within the OBC category could help identify intra-group socio-economic inequalities, thereby informing new policies for the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) within the OBCs. While these arguments are not without merit, they risk overstating what a caste census can achieve on its own. Caste enumeration should certainly be a regular institutional practice in a diverse society such as India. But to elevate the Census data as a precondition for social and economic justice or as the central document for policymaking is a flawed and potentially dangerous misreading of its purpose. The Registrar General of India's role is to collect and present neutral, factual data and not to direct the government to design social welfare policies. Elevating the Census into a tool for political reform burdens the institution beyond its mandate and risks politicising its work. It is vital to maintain the objectivity of Census operations, especially in a polarised political environment. Importantly, it is the responsibility of the ruling political elites to have public policies for the welfare of vulnerable social groups, based on the available sources of information and empirical evidence. Empirical evidence More crucially, policies for social justice have historically not waited for perfect data. Landmark initiatives such as reservations, land reforms, and the implementation of the Mandal Commission's recommendations were driven not by statistical revelations but by political struggle, mass mobilisation, and the moral commitment of the ruling political class. Public policy in India is often shaped more by electoral strategies, ideological inclinations, and public pressure than by spreadsheets or survey graphs. For example, the Modi government's decision to implement the reservation policy for the Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) was not based on any substantive statistical data or commission report. Instead it only shows that the ruling dispensation has an authoritative power to execute such policy. Moreover, extensive data about caste-based inequality already exists. Since Independence, Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs) have been part of the decennial Census. But Census and complementary national surveys (such as the National Sample Survey Organization/Office, National Family Health Survey) continue to highlight their persistent educational, economic, and social disadvantages. The National Crime Records Bureau has documented a consistent rise in crimes against these communities — from sexual violence to atrocities under the SC/ST (Prevention of Atrocities) Act. Likewise, the Bihar Caste Survey and the earlier Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) have laid bare the deep economic vulnerabilities and heterogeneity within the OBC category. These reports show that a vast majority of OBCs remain stuck in informal, insecure, low-income employment, with little to no social security or opportunity for mobility. Despite this abundance of data, the central government has yet to implement bold or transformative policy reforms. For OBCs in particular, there remains a conspicuous policy vacuum at the national level. Importantly, multiple academic researches and reports have demonstrated that in influential sectors of private economy (corporates, the IT industry, and media houses) the representation of SCs/STs and OBCs is marginal. However, no substantial measures have been taken to increase their representation in such institutions of power and privileges. Also, they lack participation in state-run institutions especially in higher education, the judiciary and the top bureaucracy. Social justice needs robust political will Available empirical evidence using various surveys, reports and research highlights a fundamental truth — that data does not necessarily drive public policy. Instead, it is the intent of the governing class and people's democratic pressure that crafts public policy. A caste census may help sharpen the diagnosis, but it cannot administer the cure. Data is only the map; it cannot chart the journey by itself. If India is to move toward a more just and inclusive future, the focus must remain on the moral and political imagination of its ruling class. Without political will, empirical evidence remains inert. The real test of the current national government lies not in collecting information on caste-based socio-economic stratification, but in executing effective policy measures, with courage and commitment, for the welfare of the worst-off social groups. Harish S. Wankhede is Assistant Professor, Centre for Political Studies, School of Social Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi

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