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CNA
05-05-2025
- Business
- CNA
Strategists optimistic on China even as US-China trade war climbdown looks far off
As financial markets pin their hopes on a de-escalation in the US-China trade war, some experts caution that meaningful progress in striking a deal between the world's two largest economies may still be some way off. "Either tariffs are cut to more palatable levels or both sides put more exclusions on the table to make tariffs effectively less binding," Aidan Yao, Amundi's senior investment strategist for Asia, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. "For now, signs of these are sparse, presumably because the pain threshold has not been reached," Yao said, adding that the outlook for the Chinese economy still looks positive. China recently said it was "evaluating" a US proposal to resume trade talks over Washington's 145 per cent tariffs. It has also created a list of US-made products for exemption from its 125 per cent retaliatory tariffs. Sat Duhra, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, said, "Trump will need to respond if the threat of a recession increases significantly, which the equity market, dollar and the Treasuries arguably are beginning to point to." He said a resolution would benefit his company's positioning in China. Duhra has been lapping up Chinese stocks, noting opportunities in banks, technology and sportswear among other sectors, citing higher dividends and lower valuations. While Janus Henderson is broadly "neutral weight" on Chinese equities, Amundi holds a close to "neutral" stance, preferring domestic-oriented sectors in A-shares and AI-leading tech names in offshore stocks. China's blue-chip CSI300 and Shanghai Composite are down 4 per cent and 2 per cent year-to-date, respectively, in line with their US counterparts - S&P 500 and Nasdaq down 3 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively.
Yahoo
05-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Strategists optimistic on China even as US-China trade war climbdown looks far off
By Ankika Biswas (Reuters) -As financial markets pin their hopes on a de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war, some experts caution that meaningful progress in striking a deal between the world's two largest economies may still be some way off. "Either tariffs are cut to more palatable levels or both sides put more exclusions on the table to make tariffs effectively less binding," Aidan Yao, Amundi's senior investment strategist for Asia, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. "For now, signs of these are sparse, presumably because the pain threshold has not been reached," Yao said, adding that the outlook for the Chinese economy still looks positive. China recently said it was "evaluating" a U.S. proposal to resume trade talks over Washington's 145% tariffs. It has also created a list of U.S.-made products for exemption from its 125% retaliatory tariffs. Sat Duhra, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, said, "Trump will need to respond if the threat of a recession increases significantly, which the equity market, dollar and the Treasuries arguably are beginning to point to." He said a resolution would benefit his company's positioning in China. Duhra has been lapping up Chinese stocks, noting opportunities in banks, technology and sportswear among other sectors, citing higher dividends and lower valuations. While Janus Henderson is broadly "neutral weight" on Chinese equities, Amundi holds a close to "neutral" stance, preferring domestic-oriented sectors in A-shares and AI-leading tech names in offshore stocks. China's blue-chip CSI300 and Shanghai Composite are down 4% and 2% year-to-date, respectively, in line with their U.S. counterparts - S&P 500 and Nasdaq down 3% and 7%, respectively. "News on tariffs have become mostly noise for the Chinese markets... They don't set the trend anymore unless a U-turn on Trump's policies is achieved," Yao said, adding that China is well-positioned in terms of economic size and domestic policies to cushion the impact of external shocks. (Join GMF, a chat room hosted on LSEG Messenger: Sign in to access your portfolio
Reuters
05-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Strategists optimistic on China even as US-China trade war climbdown looks far off
May 5 (Reuters) - As financial markets pin their hopes on a de-escalation in the U.S.- China trade war, some experts caution that meaningful progress in striking a deal between the world's two largest economies may still be some way off. "Either tariffs are cut to more palatable levels or both sides put more exclusions on the table to make tariffs effectively less binding," Aidan Yao, Amundi's senior investment strategist for Asia, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum, opens new tab. "For now, signs of these are sparse, presumably because the pain threshold has not been reached," Yao said, adding that the outlook for the Chinese economy still looks positive. China recently said it was "evaluating" a U.S. proposal to resume trade talks over Washington's 145% tariffs. It has also created a list of U.S.-made products for exemption from its 125% retaliatory tariffs. Sat Duhra, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, said, "Trump will need to respond if the threat of a recession increases significantly, which the equity market, dollar and the Treasuries arguably are beginning to point to." He said a resolution would benefit his company's positioning in China. Duhra has been lapping up Chinese stocks, noting opportunities in banks, technology and sportswear among other sectors, citing higher dividends and lower valuations. While Janus Henderson is broadly "neutral weight" on Chinese equities, Amundi holds a close to "neutral" stance, preferring domestic-oriented sectors in A-shares and AI-leading tech names in offshore stocks. China's blue-chip CSI300 (.CSI300), opens new tab and Shanghai Composite (.SSEC), opens new tab are down 4% and 2% year-to-date, respectively, in line with their U.S. counterparts - S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab and Nasdaq (.IXIC), opens new tab down 3% and 7%, respectively. "News on tariffs have become mostly noise for the Chinese markets... They don't set the trend anymore unless a U-turn on Trump's policies is achieved," Yao said, adding that China is well-positioned in terms of economic size and domestic policies to cushion the impact of external shocks. (Join GMF, a chat room hosted on LSEG Messenger: opens new tab)
Zawya
27-02-2025
- Business
- Zawya
As trade war escalates, economists bet on China resilience
With China at the forefront of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff agenda, domestic economists expect a combination of policy measures, supply chain adjustments and strengthened global partnerships to cushion the world's second-largest economy as the trade war intensifies. "We (China) have taken proactive steps to mitigate the impact of the trade war," Zong Liang, chief economist, Research Institute at state-owned Bank of China, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. "We've made it easier for other countries to do business with us, strengthening trade relationships beyond the U.S.," Zong said. Minutes after Trump's 10% tariff on Chinese imports took effect on Feb. 4, Beijing announced retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. energy products and autos along with a range of measures against Google and other U.S. firms. Trump has also announced a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S., which was eventually followed by multiple countries including Vietnam, South Korea and India unveiling their own measures on Chinese steel and steel-related imports. "Despite this, (China's) share of global exports has remained strong," Zong said, adding that he expected China to adopt a more aggressive fiscal policy this year along with additional measures to stabilise domestic demand. Alex Hongcai Xu, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee at the China Association for Policy Sciences, said Chinese companies are diversifying their export markets and broadening overseas investment cooperation, which will help mitigate trade war costs and risks. In order to further safeguard itself, Xu expects China to provide financial subsidies and tax breaks to the tariff-hit agriculture and manufacturing sectors. Both economists also noted that the U.S.-Sino trade war opens up opportunities for China to deepen relationships with Southeast Asian nations, the European Union and other tariff-hit countries, strengthening partnerships such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Kishore Mahbubani, veteran Singaporean diplomat and distinguished fellow at the National University of Singapore, said BRI will gain momentum as countries look outside for help after the U.S. has shut down aid. Trump has halted most U.S. government-funded aid globally for 90 days, while moving to dismantle the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), as part of his effort to cut the federal government workforce and curb spending it considers wasteful. "There are very few countries that can be as generous as the U.S. at that scale ... and, that is China," said Mahbubani, who was also the president of the UN Security Council in 2001 and 2002. (Join GMF, a chat room hosted on LSEG Messenger: (Reporting by Ankika Biswas and Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Divya Chowdhury and)
