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Toronto Star
20 hours ago
- Politics
- Toronto Star
As Trump heads to the G7, Canada hopes to avoid another Charlevoix-style eruption
OTTAWA - U.S. President Donald Trump is set to arrive Sunday in Alberta for the G7 summit — his first visit to Canada since leaving in a huff seven years ago. Ottawa could use everything from golfing and creative scheduling to special cabinet orders to make the visit successful and avoid a repeat diplomatic disaster. 'He is somebody who is very prickly when he feels like he's not being fully respected,' said Eric Miller, president of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group, a cross-border consultancy. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW 'You want to make absolutely sure that … he walks away and says, 'You know, those Canadians aren't so bad after all.'' Better than last time The last time Trump was in Canada — for the G7 summit in the Charlevoix region of Quebec — things ended in a blowout. Trump refused to sign the communiqué, the published list of statements on common G7 issues that are mostly negotiated and agreed to by member nations ahead of time. He left early and lambasted Trudeau as 'very dishonest and weak' in a spat over tariffs. The summit included what Miller called the 'photograph for the ages' — of then German chancellor Angela Merkel and others standing sternly over a seated Donald Trump, who appeared to be glaring back with crossed arms. German Ambassador to Canada Matthias Lüttenberg put it bluntly when he told a June 4 panel that Ottawa was again navigating 'very difficult circumstances' as G7 chair — and capably, in his view. 'I mean, I wouldn't like to negotiate with a country at the table who's questioning my sovereignty as a state,' he said. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Sen. Peter Boehm, who was summit head in 2018, recalled two late nights of negotiations because the Trump administration didn't align with the others on including climate change or references to the 'rules-based international order.' Informal talks Prime Minister Mark Carney won office in April after repeatedly saying he could stand up to Trump's threats to ruin the Canadian economy in order to make the country an American state. Carney had a cordial visit to Washington in early May and even got praise from Trump on social media and in person, despite the president insisting Canada should still become a U.S. state. The two have continued talking. U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra revealed earlier this month that the president and Carney have exchanged frequent calls and texts on trade and tariffs. Miller said facetime between the two leaders in Alberta could help them make progress on economic concerns, as well as Trump's pitch to bring Canada into his proposed Golden Dome missile shield project. 'Given that there is this conversation underway, it is important that they have an opportunity to continue that, and to meet perhaps in a setting that is less structured and formal than the Oval Office,' Miller said. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW 'Life is about imperfect choices, and it's absolutely the right thing to have Mr. Trump come to Canada.' He said he's not sure if there will be any formal announcement, though he added Trump is keen to sign agreements with multiple countries ahead of his self-imposed July 9 deadline for so-called retaliatory tariffs. Miller said both Canada and the U.S. are likely to take credit for Ottawa announcing this month it will drastically speed up its pledge to meet NATO's defence spending target. Trump might also take note of the fact that he's in one of the few provinces that have opted to resume sales of U.S. alcohol, after all provinces banned it from their liquor store shelves in response to U.S. tariffs. Lower expectations Ottawa's decision to schedule relatively short group discussions among G7 leaders, and to invite numerous other world leaders, could mean more of the one-on-one meetings that Trump prefers. 'Trump does not like multilateral meetings particularly. He loses interest,' Boehm said. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Canadian officials have said they are concentrating on releasing shorter, focused statements, which could avoid the sort of major blowups that may come from trying to craft the massive joint communiqués typical of almost all prior G7 summits. Former prime minister Jean Chretien told a panel Thursday that if Trump does have an outburst, G7 leaders should ignore him and 'keep talking normally.' Miller said that for Canada, 'ensuring a positive agenda that doesn't lead to acrimony afterwards' means advancing its interests without isolating the U.S., particularly with so many guest leaders attending. 'The trick that Mr. Carney has to pull off is to reassure the U.S. that it wants a good, positive relationship — while at the same time running vigorously, as quickly as possible, to try to build new relationships,' he said. It's also entirely possible that Trump will leave before the meetings conclude. A visiting felon Keeping it positive is also likely why Ottawa will skirt rules that might bar Trump from crossing into Canada after he was found guilty on 34 criminal counts in a 'hush money' trial in May 2024. Immigration lawyers say those convicted of serious crimes abroad must serve their time and wait five years before seeking a certificate of admissibility to Canada, though there are loopholes if someone seeks a visa for a compelling reason. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW The federal cabinet passed a formal order published in February that gives diplomatic immunity and privileges to 'representatives of a foreign state that participate in the G7 meetings.' The office of Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab would not say whether she had issued a special exemption, with her department citing privacy legislation. 'Inadmissibility decisions are made on a case-by-case basis,' spokesman Remi Lariviere wrote. Fore! Another way Canada could ensure a successful visit could be to get Trump to the Kananaskis Country Golf Course — a prospect much discussed in media reports that remained unconfirmed as of Friday afternoon. Carney gave Trump a hat and golf gear from that course during his visit to the Oval Office in May. Miller said that wasn't just a gimmick — Trump loves making deals while teeing off, and it could provide Carney or others with hours of facetime on a golf cart, which is Trump's comfort zone. 'Golf has been pretty central to his life,' he said. 'It makes eminent sense to have Mr. Trump playing at a high-quality golf course.' This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 14, 2025. Politics Headlines Newsletter Get the latest news and unmatched insights in your inbox every evening Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. 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Hamilton Spectator
a day ago
- Politics
- Hamilton Spectator
As Trump heads to the G7, Canada hopes to avoid another Charlevoix-style eruption
OTTAWA - U.S. President Donald Trump is set to arrive Sunday in Alberta for the G7 summit — his first visit to Canada since leaving in a huff seven years ago. Ottawa could use everything from golfing and creative scheduling to special cabinet orders to make the visit successful and avoid a repeat diplomatic disaster. 'He is somebody who is very prickly when he feels like he's not being fully respected,' said Eric Miller, president of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group, a cross-border consultancy. 'You want to make absolutely sure that … he walks away and says, 'You know, those Canadians aren't so bad after all.'' Better than last time The last time Trump was in Canada — for the G7 summit in the Charlevoix region of Quebec — things ended in a blowout. Trump refused to sign the communiqué, the published list of statements on common G7 issues that are mostly negotiated and agreed to by member nations ahead of time. He left early and lambasted Trudeau as 'very dishonest and weak' in a spat over tariffs. The summit included what Miller called the 'photograph for the ages' — of then German chancellor Angela Merkel and others standing sternly over a seated Donald Trump, who appeared to be glaring back with crossed arms. German Ambassador to Canada Matthias Lüttenberg put it bluntly when he told a June 4 panel that Ottawa was again navigating 'very difficult circumstances' as G7 chair — and capably, in his view. 'I mean, I wouldn't like to negotiate with a country at the table who's questioning my sovereignty as a state,' he said. Sen. Peter Boehm, who was summit head in 2018, recalled two late nights of negotiations because the Trump administration didn't align with the others on including climate change or references to the 'rules-based international order.' Informal talks Prime Minister Mark Carney won office in April after repeatedly saying he could stand up to Trump's threats to ruin the Canadian economy in order to make the country an American state. Carney had a cordial visit to Washington in early May and even got praise from Trump on social media and in person, despite the president insisting Canada should still become a U.S. state. The two have continued talking. U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra revealed earlier this month that the president and Carney have exchanged frequent calls and texts on trade and tariffs. Miller said facetime between the two leaders in Alberta could help them make progress on economic concerns, as well as Trump's pitch to bring Canada into his proposed Golden Dome missile shield project. 'Given that there is this conversation underway, it is important that they have an opportunity to continue that, and to meet perhaps in a setting that is less structured and formal than the Oval Office,' Miller said. 'Life is about imperfect choices, and it's absolutely the right thing to have Mr. Trump come to Canada.' He said he's not sure if there will be any formal announcement, though he added Trump is keen to sign agreements with multiple countries ahead of his self-imposed July 9 deadline for so-called retaliatory tariffs. Miller said both Canada and the U.S. are likely to take credit for Ottawa announcing this month it will drastically speed up its pledge to meet NATO's defence spending target. Trump might also take note of the fact that he's in one of the few provinces that have opted to resume sales of U.S. alcohol, after all provinces banned it from their liquor store shelves in response to U.S. tariffs. Lower expectations Ottawa's decision to schedule relatively short group discussions among G7 leaders, and to invite numerous other world leaders, could mean more of the one-on-one meetings that Trump prefers. 'Trump does not like multilateral meetings particularly. He loses interest,' Boehm said. Canadian officials have said they are focused on releasing shorter, focused statements — which could avoid the kind of major blowups that could come from trying to craft the kind of massive joint communiqué that has concluded almost all other G7 summits. Former prime minister Jean Chretien told a panel Thursday that if Trump does have an outburst, G7 leaders should ignore him and 'keep talking normally.' Miller said that for Canada, 'ensuring a positive agenda that doesn't lead to acrimony afterwards' means advancing its interests without isolating the U.S., particularly with so many guest leaders attending. 'The trick that Mr. Carney has to pull off is to reassure the U.S. that it wants a good, positive relationship — while at the same time running vigorously, as quickly as possible, to try to build new relationships,' he said. It's also entirely possible that Trump will leave before the meetings conclude. A visiting felon Keeping it positive is also likely why Ottawa will skirt rules that might bar Trump from crossing into Canada after he was found guilty on 34 criminal counts in a 'hush money' trial in May 2024. Immigration lawyers say those convicted of serious crimes abroad must serve their time and wait five years before seeking a certificate of admissibility to Canada, though there are loopholes if someone seeks a visa for a compelling reason. The federal cabinet passed a formal order published in February that gives diplomatic immunity and privileges to 'representatives of a foreign state that participate in the G7 meetings.' Fore! Another way Canada could ensure a successful visit could be to get Trump to the Kananaskis Country Golf Course — a prospect much discussed in media reports that remained unconfirmed as of Friday afternoon. Carney gave Trump a hat and golf gear from that course during his visit to the Oval Office in May. Miller said that wasn't just a gimmick — Trump loves making deals while teeing off, and it could provide Carney or others with hours of facetime on a golf cart, which is Trump's comfort zone. 'Golf has been pretty central to his life,' he said. 'It makes eminent sense to have Mr. Trump playing at a high-quality golf course.' This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 14, 2025.
Toronto Sun
a day ago
- Politics
- Toronto Sun
As Trump heads to the G7, Canada hopes to avoid another Charlevoix-style eruption
Published Jun 14, 2025 • Last updated 4 minutes ago • 5 minute read President Donald Trump waves as he boards Air Force One, Tuesday, June 10, 2025, at Joint Base Andrews, Md. Photo by Alex Brandon / AP Photo OTTAWA — U.S. President Donald Trump is set to arrive Sunday in Alberta for the G7 summit — his first visit to Canada since leaving in a huff seven years ago. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Don't have an account? Create Account Ottawa could use everything from golfing and creative scheduling to special cabinet orders to make the visit successful and avoid a repeat diplomatic disaster. 'He is somebody who is very prickly when he feels like he's not being fully respected,' said Eric Miller, president of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group, a cross-border consultancy. 'You want to make absolutely sure that … he walks away and says, 'You know, those Canadians aren't so bad after all.'' Better than last time The last time Trump was in Canada — for the G7 summit in the Charlevoix region of Quebec — things ended in a blowout. Trump refused to sign the communique, the published list of statements on common G7 issues that are mostly negotiated and agreed to by member nations ahead of time. He left early and lambasted Trudeau as 'very dishonest and weak' in a spat over tariffs. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The summit included what Miller called the 'photograph for the ages' — of then German chancellor Angela Merkel and others standing sternly over a seated Donald Trump, who appeared to be glaring back with crossed arms. German Ambassador to Canada Matthias Luttenberg put it bluntly when he told a June 4 panel that Ottawa was again navigating 'very difficult circumstances' as G7 chair — and capably, in his view. 'I mean, I wouldn't like to negotiate with a country at the table who's questioning my sovereignty as a state,' he said. Sen. Peter Boehm, who was summit head in 2018, recalled two late nights of negotiations because the Trump administration didn't align with the others on including climate change or references to the 'rules-based international order.' Your noon-hour look at what's happening in Toronto and beyond. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Prime Minister Mark Carney won office in April after repeatedly saying he could stand up to Trump's threats to ruin the Canadian economy in order to make the country an American state. Carney had a cordial visit to Washington in early May and even got praise from Trump on social media and in person, despite the president insisting Canada should still become a U.S. state. The two have continued talking. U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra revealed earlier this month that the president and Carney have exchanged frequent calls and texts on trade and tariffs. Miller said facetime between the two leaders in Alberta could help them make progress on economic concerns, as well as Trump's pitch to bring Canada into his proposed Golden Dome missile shield project. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'Given that there is this conversation underway, it is important that they have an opportunity to continue that, and to meet perhaps in a setting that is less structured and formal than the Oval Office,' Miller said. 'Life is about imperfect choices, and it's absolutely the right thing to have Mr. Trump come to Canada.' He said he's not sure if there will be any formal announcement, though he added Trump is keen to sign agreements with multiple countries ahead of his self-imposed July 9 deadline for so-called retaliatory tariffs. Miller said both Canada and the U.S. are likely to take credit for Ottawa announcing this month it will drastically speed up its pledge to meet NATO's defence spending target. Trump might also take note of the fact that he's in one of the few provinces that have opted to resume sales of U.S. alcohol, after all provinces banned it from their liquor store shelves in response to U.S. tariffs. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Ottawa's decision to schedule relatively short group discussions among G7 leaders, and to invite numerous other world leaders, could mean more of the one-on-one meetings that Trump prefers. 'Trump does not like multilateral meetings particularly. He loses interest,' Boehm said. Canadian officials have said they are focused on releasing shorter, focused statements — which could avoid the kind of major blowups that could come from trying to craft the kind of massive joint communique that has concluded almost all other G7 summits. Former prime minister Jean Chretien told a panel Thursday that if Trump does have an outburst, G7 leaders should ignore him and 'keep talking normally.' Miller said that for Canada, 'ensuring a positive agenda that doesn't lead to acrimony afterwards' means advancing its interests without isolating the U.S., particularly with so many guest leaders attending. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'The trick that Mr. Carney has to pull off is to reassure the U.S. that it wants a good, positive relationship — while at the same time running vigorously, as quickly as possible, to try to build new relationships,' he said. It's also entirely possible that Trump will leave before the meetings conclude. A visiting felon Keeping it positive is also likely why Ottawa will skirt rules that might bar Trump from crossing into Canada after he was found guilty on 34 criminal counts in a 'hush money' trial in May 2024. Immigration lawyers say those convicted of serious crimes abroad must serve their time and wait five years before seeking a certificate of admissibility to Canada, though there are loopholes if someone seeks a visa for a compelling reason. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The federal cabinet passed a formal order published in February that gives diplomatic immunity and privileges to 'representatives of a foreign state that participate in the G7 meetings.' Fore! Another way Canada could ensure a successful visit could be to get Trump to the Kananaskis Country Golf Course — a prospect much discussed in media reports that remained unconfirmed as of Friday afternoon. Carney gave Trump a hat and golf gear from that course during his visit to the Oval Office in May. Miller said that wasn't just a gimmick — Trump loves making deals while teeing off, and it could provide Carney or others with hours of facetime on a golf cart, which is Trump's comfort zone. 'Golf has been pretty central to his life,' he said. 'It makes eminent sense to have Mr. Trump playing at a high-quality golf course.' Read More Sunshine Girls Golf World World Sunshine Girls
Winnipeg Free Press
a day ago
- Politics
- Winnipeg Free Press
As Trump heads to the G7, Canada hopes to avoid another Charlevoix-style eruption
OTTAWA – U.S. President Donald Trump is set to arrive Sunday in Alberta for the G7 summit — his first visit to Canada since leaving in a huff seven years ago. Ottawa could use everything from golfing and creative scheduling to special cabinet orders to make the visit successful and avoid a repeat diplomatic disaster. 'He is somebody who is very prickly when he feels like he's not being fully respected,' said Eric Miller, president of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group, a cross-border consultancy. 'You want to make absolutely sure that … he walks away and says, 'You know, those Canadians aren't so bad after all.'' Better than last time The last time Trump was in Canada — for the G7 summit in the Charlevoix region of Quebec — things ended in a blowout. Trump refused to sign the communiqué, the published list of statements on common G7 issues that are mostly negotiated and agreed to by member nations ahead of time. He left early and lambasted Trudeau as 'very dishonest and weak' in a spat over tariffs. The summit included what Miller called the 'photograph for the ages' — of then German chancellor Angela Merkel and others standing sternly over a seated Donald Trump, who appeared to be glaring back with crossed arms. German Ambassador to Canada Matthias Lüttenberg put it bluntly when he told a June 4 panel that Ottawa was again navigating 'very difficult circumstances' as G7 chair — and capably, in his view. 'I mean, I wouldn't like to negotiate with a country at the table who's questioning my sovereignty as a state,' he said. Sen. Peter Boehm, who was summit head in 2018, recalled two late nights of negotiations because the Trump administration didn't align with the others on including climate change or references to the 'rules-based international order.' Informal talks Prime Minister Mark Carney won office in April after repeatedly saying he could stand up to Trump's threats to ruin the Canadian economy in order to make the country an American state. Carney had a cordial visit to Washington in early May and even got praise from Trump on social media and in person, despite the president insisting Canada should still become a U.S. state. The two have continued talking. U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra revealed earlier this month that the president and Carney have exchanged frequent calls and texts on trade and tariffs. Miller said facetime between the two leaders in Alberta could help them make progress on economic concerns, as well as Trump's pitch to bring Canada into his proposed Golden Dome missile shield project. 'Given that there is this conversation underway, it is important that they have an opportunity to continue that, and to meet perhaps in a setting that is less structured and formal than the Oval Office,' Miller said. 'Life is about imperfect choices, and it's absolutely the right thing to have Mr. Trump come to Canada.' He said he's not sure if there will be any formal announcement, though he added Trump is keen to sign agreements with multiple countries ahead of his self-imposed July 9 deadline for so-called retaliatory tariffs. Miller said both Canada and the U.S. are likely to take credit for Ottawa announcing this month it will drastically speed up its pledge to meet NATO's defence spending target. Trump might also take note of the fact that he's in one of the few provinces that have opted to resume sales of U.S. alcohol, after all provinces banned it from their liquor store shelves in response to U.S. tariffs. Lower expectations Ottawa's decision to schedule relatively short group discussions among G7 leaders, and to invite numerous other world leaders, could mean more of the one-on-one meetings that Trump prefers. 'Trump does not like multilateral meetings particularly. He loses interest,' Boehm said. Canadian officials have said they are focused on releasing shorter, focused statements — which could avoid the kind of major blowups that could come from trying to craft the kind of massive joint communiqué that has concluded almost all other G7 summits. Former prime minister Jean Chretien told a panel Thursday that if Trump does have an outburst, G7 leaders should ignore him and 'keep talking normally.' Miller said that for Canada, 'ensuring a positive agenda that doesn't lead to acrimony afterwards' means advancing its interests without isolating the U.S., particularly with so many guest leaders attending. 'The trick that Mr. Carney has to pull off is to reassure the U.S. that it wants a good, positive relationship — while at the same time running vigorously, as quickly as possible, to try to build new relationships,' he said. It's also entirely possible that Trump will leave before the meetings conclude. A visiting felon Keeping it positive is also likely why Ottawa will skirt rules that might bar Trump from crossing into Canada after he was found guilty on 34 criminal counts in a 'hush money' trial in May 2024. Immigration lawyers say those convicted of serious crimes abroad must serve their time and wait five years before seeking a certificate of admissibility to Canada, though there are loopholes if someone seeks a visa for a compelling reason. The federal cabinet passed a formal order published in February that gives diplomatic immunity and privileges to 'representatives of a foreign state that participate in the G7 meetings.' Fore! Monday Mornings The latest local business news and a lookahead to the coming week. Another way Canada could ensure a successful visit could be to get Trump to the Kananaskis Country Golf Course — a prospect much discussed in media reports that remained unconfirmed as of Friday afternoon. Carney gave Trump a hat and golf gear from that course during his visit to the Oval Office in May. Miller said that wasn't just a gimmick — Trump loves making deals while teeing off, and it could provide Carney or others with hours of facetime on a golf cart, which is Trump's comfort zone. 'Golf has been pretty central to his life,' he said. 'It makes eminent sense to have Mr. Trump playing at a high-quality golf course.' This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 14, 2025.
CBC
24-04-2025
- Business
- CBC
Trump says he might lower tariffs on China. Unless the number comes way down, experts say it won't matter
Social Sharing The White House has indicated that it could lower its tariffs on China, but experts say the exact figures might not make much of a difference. Right now, the U.S. has 145 per cent blanket tariffs on Chinese goods, while China has a 125 rate on U.S. goods. The levies jumped to those levels earlier this month when both countries were engaged in a tit-for-tat raising of rates. U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday during a news conference that tariffs would " come down substantially," but wouldn't disappear completely. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, one White House official said the Trump administration was considering cutting the rates from 145 per cent to somewhere between 50 and 65 per cent. Eric Miller, international trade consultant and president of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group, says those figures are not enough of a decrease to make any real difference. "While the levels of tariffs coming down are welcome, they're not going to be significant enough to get the vast majority of trade back flowing again," Miller said. Miller says the current rates of 145 per cent are no different than a 1,000 per cent tariff — both effectively shut off trade between the countries. WATCH | How far will China go to beat the U.S. in trade war?: Trade war: How far will China go to beat the U.S.? 15 days ago Duration 11:01 Serious economic pain Under the current levels, Miller says U.S. importers of Chinese goods are now expected to pay almost $1.50 in tax for every dollar's worth of products they're bringing into the country. "So by definition, they're starting that process at a loss. That means that really nobody is going to be bringing goods in from China after a while," Miller said. He says that that's already hurting American businesses, especially those that make things in the U.S. and rely on supplies or materials from China. Any rates on China above 20 per cent (which is a rough average of how high Trump raised them during his first presidency) will cause serious economic pain, according to Miller. "Once you start getting up … above 20 per cent, there's a declining number of goods, really, that can be economic at those levels," Miller said. Under 50 or 60 per cent blanket tariffs, Miller says American companies would still be in a rush to move production out of China to avoid the measures. Certain industries — like clothing, for example — would be effectively priced out of the market at 50 per cent, Miller says. According to a 2024 report by the U.S. International Trade Commission, the U.S. imported $79.3 billion US of apparel from China in 2023, which accounted for 21 per cent of all clothing imports. Miller says that because many fast fashion retailers make their clothes in China and sell them at very low cost in the U.S., these hypothetical lower rates could still raise clothing prices dramatically, effectively ending fast fashion for U.S. consumers as they know it. And assuming China matched the U.S.'s tariff rates, Miller adds that American companies that export to China (like farmers who usually sell billions of dollars in soybeans to China a year) would also find themselves priced out. China not backing down Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder of J Capital Research and author of Wild Ride: A Short History of the Opening and Closing of the Chinese Economy, agrees with Miller that a reduction to 50 or 60 per cent would make little difference. She says anything more than 50 per cent essentially functions like a trade embargo. But while the U.S. says rates could fall, any kind of trade deal remains far off. The Trump administration previously indicated it was in talks with China about a possible trade deal, though Chinese officials have come out since then to say there have been no discussions so far. WATCH | China's Xi in Vietnam seeking stronger ties amid Trump tariffs: China's Xi in Vietnam seeking stronger ties amid Trump tariffs | Hanomansing Tonight 10 days ago Duration 3:45 Stevenson-Yang says China has been "masterful" so far in sending a public message that it will not bend to Trump. She says outside of a scenario where a few big Chinese companies came out with plans to invest in the U.S., China will not back down first. When it comes to whether or not tariffs will drop back to what they were pre-trade war, Miller says the odds are "pretty low," given the Trump administration's goal is to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. But Pau Pujolas, an associate professor of economics at McMaster University in Hamilton, says the magic number is likely zero, as any tariff rate between the two largest trading partners would have a big impact. And even if the tariffs were to go away completely, he says damage would still be done because it generated uncertainty in the economic system for businesses trying to make new investments, and for consumers deciding whether or not to make big purchases. "Ultimately, the exact number of the tariff that we get is going to be important, but it's not going to [cause] the majority of the damage," Pujolas said.
