Latest news with #RoyalUnitedServicesInstitute
Time of India
2 days ago
- Politics
- Time of India
'US likely moved N-arms to UK for first time since '08'
T Tired of too many ads? go ad free now he US has likely stationed nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time since 2008, in a signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin that it remains committed to European security. On July 16, a US military aircraft flew with its transponder on - making its identification and location publicly visible - from a US nuclear weapons depot at Kirtland air force base in Albuquerque, New Mexico, to an airbase in the UK city of Lakenheath, according to defence analysts and open-source data. The C-17 flight involved the US air force's Prime Nuclear Airlift Force, which transports nuclear weapons, and didn't fly over any other nation's territory, according to William Alberque, a Europe-based senior fellow at Pacific Forum. US and UK govts have longstanding policies of not commenting on status or location of their nuclear weapons. The weapons the aircraft most likely delivered were the new B61-12 thermonuclear bombs, increasing the number of US tactical nuclear weapons in Europe for the first time since the Cold War. Alberque said the decision to leave the flight transponders on indicates the US wants to show Russia that it is not reducing its nuclear capability in Europe. "Returning US nuclear weapons to the UK is no small feat." The move also signals that the US is committing more flexible nuclear capabilities to Europe, creating a wider range of options for its forces, said Sidharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. "Capabilities such as the B61 can contribute to limiting the impact of Russia's large advantage in theater-level nonstrategic nuclear weapons," Kaushal said.
The Guardian
5 days ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
Russia launches record attacks on Ukraine as country struggles to defend itself
Night by night, the blitz develops. Russian drones, decoys, cruise and ballistic missiles – increasingly aimed at a single city or location – are being launched in record numbers into Ukraine, straining the country's ability to defend itself and raising questions about how well it can endure another winter of war. One day earlier this month, 728 drones and 13 missiles were launched, mostly at the western city of Lutsk, home to many Ukrainian airfields. Large salvoes now come more frequently: every three to five days, rather than every 10 to 12, and civilian casualties are rising: 232 people were killed in June, the highest monthly level for three years. A 1,000-drone attack is anticipated shortly and last weekend a German army major general, Christian Freuding, predicted that the Kremlin's ambition was to attack Ukraine with '2,000 drones simultaneously'. Production of drones and missiles has improved, as have Russian tactics. Not only are the drones unleashed in larger swarms, with dozens of decoys included, but they are also being flown either much lower or at much higher altitudes, sometimes in a stack to fool the defenders before swooping down steeply to their target. The additional height takes them beyond the range of mobile Ukrainian gunners, whose job has been to shoot them down, relatively cheaply. Analyses of Ukrainian air force data show that more drones are getting through: from close to 5% in March and April to between 15% and 20% in May and June. Russia is also using its Shahed drones more intelligently, analysts say, to open a path for faster and more dangerous cruise and ballistic missiles because the 50kg (110lb) explosive normally carried by a Shahed only does a relatively limited amount of damage. Designed in Iran, the delta-winged Shahed 136, or the Russian Geran-2s, are now made in Russia. At least two factories have been identified, one in Izhevsk, and most notably in Yelabuga, more than 700 miles from Ukraine. The modern-looking assembly line was shown off on Russian television a few days ago, with dozens of distinctive fibreglass and carbon-fibre frames positioned to sinister effect in the background. 'The Shahed problem has been foreseeable for some time. Russia has been asking itself: 'What will be the T-34 of this war?'' said Jack Watling, a military expert with the Royal United Services Institute thinktank, referring to the tank that is considered by some to have helped the Soviets defeat the Nazis in the second world war. Watling said the issue uppermost in the minds of Russian planners was: 'What is the technology that we can invest in that is good and cheap enough and delivers decisive results?' Two of these are Shahed drones and Iskander missiles in which, he said, Russia has invested heavily in trying to deliver a long-term military-industrial victory. In the Russian video of the Yelabuga plant, the narrator says that teenagers as young as 15 are invited to work at the factory, coming from a nearby technical college, such has been the Kremlin's focus on trying to keep costs down. The Russian version of the Shahed 136 is cheap, costing roughly between $50,000 (£37,000) to $100,000 each, according to Samuel Bendett, a drone expert with the Centre for Naval Analyses thinktank. At the same time, component and manufacturing equipment supply for Shaheds has improved. 'China is more directly providing components to Russia,' said Kateryna Stepanenko, from the Institute of the Study of War, likely aided by a direct rail link to China near Yelabuga. 'Integration of Chinese components, where before there was supply from Iran, means the manufacturers now have a lot more available parts,' she said. Sign up to This is Europe The most pressing stories and debates for Europeans – from identity to economics to the environment after newsletter promotion In Ukraine, there is nervousness. Concern about the available air defence has prompted renewed public lobbying from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for US Patriot air defence systems, and a promise from Germany to pay for five more. But Patriots are only cost-effectively used against cruise and ballistic missiles, not Shaheds, because the modern PAC-3 interceptor missiles cost about $4m each. There has been a sustained effort in developing cheap drones to knock out the Shaheds, although details about the counter-drone efforts remain relatively scarce online, partly because the effort is concealed by operational security. A prominent Ukrainian fundraiser, Serhii Sternenko, said a fortnight ago that more than 100 air targets had been shot down as part of his foundation's 'Shahedoriz' project. That suggests modest progress. Watling argues the problem at the moment is that 'the technology exists but they have not scaled production of them yet'. That may be solved by a partnership announced by Zelenskyy with Google's former CEO Eric Schmidt earlier this month to produce 'interceptor drones', though again details are scant. At the same time, in the last month Ukrainian officials have been trying to restart efforts to lobby European powers to police the skies over the west of the country. One initiative, Sky Shield, proposed in March, suggested that 120 fighter jets could effectively engage in defensive air policing west of the Dnipro River – but this idea was only deemed practical after a ceasefire that Russia has refused to agree to. Though air policing has formed part of plans for a post-conflict 'reassurance force' led by the UK and France, there has so far been no appetite for western nations to step forward and protect Ukrainian airspace for fears it would lead to a direct conflict between a Nato country and Russia. 'It's so frustrating: countries send people to fight in Afghanistan for how long to defend from what – but nobody wants to help Ukraine better defend its skies,' said one source involved in the renewed effort. While there is not much confidence in diplomacy, the balance in the battle of the skies has tipped towards Russia. That could become more ominous if, in the coming weeks, Moscow makes a determined effort to target Ukraine's electricity grid and utility networks before winter. For now, the heightened level of missile and drone attacks demonstrates that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, 'remains committed to his goals to have Ukraine surrender and capitulate', said Stepanenko, from the Institute of the Study of War. 'This war is certainly not a stalemate.'
Telegraph
6 days ago
- Science
- Telegraph
How AI is coming for our top guns
Like countless other schoolboys, Greg Bagwell dreamed of becoming an RAF fighter pilot when he grew up. Unlike countless other schoolboys, he actually did so – beating thousands of others in a selection procedure as stringent as joining the SAS. First, recruits must be fit enough to withstand pressures of 9G during flight – equivalent to nine times the force of gravity on the body, and twice what a bobsleigh crew or a Formula 1 driver endures. Second, they must be capable of complex maths to plot manoeuvres and missile trajectories. Third, they must be able to do all of the above while being shot at. 'Short of becoming an astronaut, there aren't many jobs that are as selective,' says Bagwell, 63, who flew Tornados in Iraq in the 1990s and is now a Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. 'You need the hand-eye co-ordination to fly at supersonic speeds, while also doing the maths that gives you the 3D shaping of the airspace. It's like being a Formula 1 driver while also playing chess; only you're having to make each chess move in split seconds while travelling at nine miles a minute,' says Bagwell. It is no surprise that air forces seek high standards in fighter pilots. Their jets are hugely costly, and are often the first responders in hostilities, be it military reconnaissance of Islamic State bases in the Middle East, or dropping a bomb. Tales of their skills are also the stuff of history books and movies, from Battle of Britain aces such as Douglas Bader to space pioneers like Neil Armstrong, who flew combat missions in Korea before his journey to the Moon. But in a combat arena where the slightest human error can prove supremely costly, the future may lie in removing humans from cockpits – with those like Bagwell replaced by AI-controlled pilots. Brink of extinction Such scenarios may sound like the script of Top Gun: Maverick, in which Tom Cruise's ageing air ace is warned that his ilk will soon be replaced by UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles). 'Pilots need to eat, sleep, take a p--s,' sneers a tech-minded superior. 'Your kind is headed for extinction.' This is no case of Hollywood hyperbole: if anything, the Top Gun scriptwriters may be behind the times. For AI-controlled fighter jets are already holding their own against human pilots – as demonstrated in tests this summer carried by Helsing, a German drone maker and AI firm. In a collaboration last month with the Swedish fighter-plane maker Saab, two Gripen E combat jets engaged in mock dogfights over the Baltic Sea – one jet flown by a regular pilot, the other by a pilot guided by Helsing's Centaur AI software. While neither aircraft came out on top, Centaur gave its human counterpart a run for its money. Given the rate at which AI learns, it may be just a few years before it gains the edge. 'Right now, there are still pilots out there that will have a chance, but that will change fast,' explains Marcus Wandt, Saab's chief innovation officer, and a former fighter pilot. 'If you need to retrain for a new weapon system or new tactics, it will be difficult to stay on par.' Helsing was founded as a start-up by German tech entrepreneur Torsten Reil, an Oxford-educated gaming developer, and Gundbert Scherf, formerly an aerospace expert with the German ministry of defence. Their motivation was Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014, which they saw as proof that Europe needed to harness 'autonomous capabilities' to survive against aggressive dictatorships. Having been proved all too right by the war in Ukraine, Helsing has become one of Europe's biggest start-ups, making advanced air and sea drones. Such unmanned weapons have proved game-changers in Ukraine, helping to keep Russia's far bigger army in check, crippling Moscow's Black Sea fleet, and destroying dozens of Russian bombers recently at an airfield in Siberia. Helsing is now valued at more than £10bn, with Spotify founder Daniel Ek's investment company having led a £500m funding round in June. The age of drones The firm's success has already led some to question whether Western governments should even continue investing in manned fighter aircraft. Britain, for example, is purchasing 12 new US F35-A fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear bombs. The F35 is the world's most advanced fighter jet, yet is still built around the concept of a human at the controls. Last year, the Tesla boss Elon Musk described the F-35 as a case of Western militaries training for yesterday's war. He posted an image on X of a Chinese drone swarm, saying: 'Meanwhile, some idiots are still building manned fighter jets like the F-35.' He added: 'Manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones…Will just get pilots killed.' Defence officials argue that planes such as the F-35 take decades to design, and that AI is still too much in its infancy to design an entire plane around. But Helsing put on a recent demonstration of Centaur's skills at the Global Air & Space Chiefs' Conference, a top-level military and industry forum in London hosted by the RAF. On a flight simulator set up in a hotel suite next to the conference centre, two former 'Top Guns' – ex-Tornado pilot Stewart Campbell and ex-French Mirage pilot Benoit Planche – fought two Centaur rivals in 'beyond visual range' combat. This is when the enemy jet is too far away to see, but still within missile and radar range. That sort of military engagement makes success more reliant on computing heights, trajectories and speeds, to maximise the chances of a missile finding its target. The projectiles have limited fuel time, so if a pilot doesn't fire them at the most opportune moment, the target may dodge or outrun them. 'We want to hit the enemy before they hit us, which means we're running maths in our head constantly about heights, speed, loft and so on,' says Campbell, who left the RAF this year after serving in Afghanistan and the Red Arrows. 'Ultimately, I think you're going to see AI take over because it can do those calculations far better than I can.' Campbell also points out that, contrary to the impression given in films, the average fighter jet has limited weaponry. His simulated jet has just four air-to-air missiles – fewer than the number of bullets held by the average revolver. 'I can't just fire with impunity; I need each shot to be lethal,' he points out. 'The chances of the AI getting it wrong are much less – especially if you're a stressed-out junior pilot, being shot at in a part of the world you're unfamiliar with,' he adds. AI advantages The Centaur AI pilots honed their skills on a simulated platform where they were given a simple reward function: 'Kill the other aircraft and don't die.' They then played each other constantly, absorbing the equivalent of more than 100 years' flying time in a few days. The process is broadly comparable to Deep Blue, the IBM supercomputer that took on – and ultimately defeated – chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov in the 1990s, evaluating 200 million chess positions per second. In last week's demonstration in London, Centaur won some of the battles while the pilots won others. Campbell admits, though, that AI also offers other advantages. 'From a risk point of view, you've not got a human being in that cockpit. Nor are you paying a pension or its healthcare.' A running theme at the conference was the risk that AI could creep up, like a stealth fighter jet, on an unwieldy defence establishment. Several speakers suggested that unmanned AI jets could be operational by 2040. 'The F-35 is the best fighter around today, and will be for a good while yet,' says Prof Kenneth Payne, an expert in strategic studies at King's College London. 'But AI will be able to do what human pilots can well before the next RAF fighter comes into service. 'We need to think seriously about whether that aircraft needs a cockpit,' he continues. 'Some leading AI figures think it will surpass human-level intelligence at many, even most, tasks within a few years. I don't think enough people inside defence are taking that seriously yet.' The RAF's next fighter will be the Tempest, a joint British-Italian-Japanese venture due in service by 2035. It is expected to offer both manned and unmanned options, although Bagwell seems unconvinced that pilots will be dispensed by then. 'A manned platform can do all kinds of things, from dogfights and escorts through to intercepting an airliner and looking into the cockpit to see if there is a hostage situation. There isn't a machine that exists today that can do all those things,' he says. 'In combat scenarios, planes will also be flying into deeply hostile airspace, with jamming, spoofing and other attacks on connectivity. If you lose that, you may still need a human being in the loop.' 'Besides,' he adds, 'I spent all my life as a pilot being promised stuff that never quite meets the glossy brochure. And in life-and-death situations, where a pilot might be trying to stop a missile attack on the UK, are we happy to put 100-per-cent trust in machines?' 'Our time is done' Others, of course, argue that the very act of flying requires putting 100-per-cent trust in a machine, and that the whole trajectory of combat aircraft has been away from the reckless 'barnstormer' image of the last century. Indeed, in a memorable article about a tour of a US Air Force base in 1969, the hellraising journalist Hunter S Thompson mourned the demise of the 'daredevil, speedball' flying ace. Today's pilot, he wrote, was a 'supercautious, supertrained, superintelligent monument to the computer age'. In that sense, AI pilots may simply be the next logical step – if not taking over entirely, then flying certain missions deemed too risky for humans. And much as men such as Campbell may still represent the elite, for now, he accepts that the Top Gun legend could be about to end. 'When I joined the Royal Air Force, I was told that a time would come when fighters wouldn't be in the cockpit,' he says. 'Ultimately, when we fight a war, we want to win, and if AI becomes capable enough to win, then I accept that our time as pilots is done.'
Newsweek
18-07-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
NATO Warns Russia About Seizing Territory in Europe
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. A NATO commander warned that its forces could capture Russia's heavily fortified Kaliningrad region "in a timeframe that is unheard of" if necessary. General Christopher Donahue, commander of U.S. Army Europe and Africa, made the remark as the alliance unveiled a new Eastern Flank defense plan at the Association of the U.S. Army's inaugural LandEuro conference on Wednesday. It comes amid fears that Russian President Vladimir Putin could seize NATO territory if not stopped in Ukraine, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte have warned about before. Why It Matters The warnings by Donahue and NATO leaders reflected growing concern about Russia's intent and military buildup, especially following the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and a series of hostile actions, including cyberattacks and territorial advances. NATO's new posture, built on the Eastern Flank Deterrence Line strategy, reported on by Defense News, seeks to shift the alliance from a peacetime to a war-ready footing to deter or repel any Russian attempt to seize territory in Europe. NATO members face repeated warnings from intelligence and defense officials that Russia could directly threaten alliance territory within the next five years, signaling an urgent need for coordinated defense investments and operational reforms. France's National Strategic Review named Russia the "most direct threat" to European interests and stability, while Western leaders cautioned that unchecked Russian aggression could escalate into a broader European conflict. General Christopher Donahue, commander of U.S. Army Europe and Africa, at the Royal United Services Institute conference, at Church House, Westminster, London, on June 18, 2025. General Christopher Donahue, commander of U.S. Army Europe and Africa, at the Royal United Services Institute conference, at Church House, Westminster, London, on June 18, 2025. AP What To Know Donahue outlined the new Eastern Flank Deterrence Line, a NATO plan to increase ground-based capabilities, promote allied interoperability and enable rapid mobilization against Russian threats. The approach prioritizes standardized systems, digital coordination and common weapon launchers, with an emphasis on interoperability and cost-effectiveness. Speaking specifically about Kaliningrad, Donahue said modern allied capabilities could "take that down from the ground" faster than ever before. "We've already planned that and we've already developed it," he said. "The mass and momentum problem that Russia poses to developed the capability to make sure that we can stop that mass and momentum problem." The small oblast, spanning just 47 miles across, is surrounded by NATO members Poland and Lithuania, and has been heavily militarized by Russia since the end of the Soviet era. Russian officials have repeatedly warned that any NATO attack on Kaliningrad would be viewed as a direct assault on Russia, with lawmaker Leonid Slutsky, head of the Russian parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, threatening "corresponding retaliatory measures, including the use of nuclear weapons," according to the Russian state-owned TASS news agency. What To Know About Kaliningrad Kaliningrad is a Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea, separated from mainland Russia and bordered by Poland to the south and Lithuania to the north and east. Formerly known as Königsberg, it became part of the Soviet Union after World War II under the terms of the Potsdam Agreement. Today, it is an outpost of Russian power in the heart of NATO territory and is among the most heavily fortified regions in Europe. Kaliningrad hosts significant Russian ground forces, air defense systems and naval assets, including reported deployment of nuclear-capable missiles, giving Moscow a forward operating base in the region and raising the stakes of any military confrontation. Who People Are Saying General Christopher Donahue, commander of U.S. Army Europe and Africa: "We know what we have to develop and the use case that we're using is you have to [deter] from the ground. The land domain is not becoming less important, it's becoming more important. You can now take down [anti-access, aerial-denial] A2AD bubbles from the ground. You can now take over sea from the ground. All of those things we are watching happen in Ukraine." Leonid Slutsky, head of the Russian parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee: "An attack on the Kaliningrad region is tantamount to an attack on Russia." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, earlier this year: "If we do not stand firm, [Putin] will advance further. Considering all of this, I believe it could escalate into a world war." What Happens Next NATO's Eastern Flank Deterrence Line is set to boost allied land power and digital integration, including new AI-driven data systems and standardized launchers. The initiative aims to enable rapid response, high interoperability and lower operating costs. Member states have been urged to accelerate defense investments to match Russia's surging military spending and evolving threat landscape. Western governments continue to monitor Russia's actions in Ukraine and along NATO borders.
CTV News
11-07-2025
- General
- CTV News
Two new pedestals unveiled at Victoria Park Cenotaph
Two new military pedestals were unveiled at the Victoria Park Cenotaph in Regina on Thursday afternoon. Lieutenant Governor Bernadette McIntyre, Saskatchewan Military Liaison Blaine McLeod, and Royal United Services Institute President Brad Hrycyna were on hand to unveil the pedestals, which are meant to honour Canada's Second World War military engagement in the Normandy Campaign and in the Battle of the Scheldt. The Royal United Services Institute has been installing historic pedestals since November of 2020, and this now brings the number of pedestals surrounding the cenotaph to 34. 'The impetus of the whole project was the fact that we don't have those veterans among us anymore, almost all of them are gone. There's a handful still in Saskatchewan. These are people when I was in school would come and tell us about the horrors of the war and why it should never be repeated,' Hrycyna said. 'Saskatchewan people played an important role in the Normandy Campaign in France and the Battle of the Scheldt in Holland. These are stories that make our nation what it is today, and it is vital that we keep sharing those stories with each new generation,' he added.
