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Economic Times
30-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Bulls & bears play tug of war in June over last 10 years. Should you stay put or take a vacation?
June is typically a seasonally neutral month for Indian stock markets. Over the past 10 years, India's heartbeat index, Nifty, has ended the month in positive territory five times, while posting declines in the remaining years. ADVERTISEMENT The Nifty's strongest June performance came in 2020, amid the COVID-19 lockdown, with a 7.5% gain. More recently, the index posted solid gains of 6.6% in 2024 and 3.5% in 2023. The said month's returns in 2016 and 2021 stood at 1.6% and 0.9%, respectively. On the five occasions when it closed in the red were in 2015 (-0.8%), 2017 (-1%), 2018 (0.2%), 2019 (-1.1%) and 2022 (-4.9%). So far in 2025, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been net sellers in the first three months while remaining net buyers in April and May when they bought domestic shares worth Rs 4,223 crore and Rs 21,618 crore, respectively. ADVERTISEMENT .The FIIs have remained net buyers in June on seven occasions, viz. 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024. In 2023, FIIs bought domestic equities worth Rs 47,148 crore, which remains the highest over the last 10 years. It is followed by 2024 and 2020, when they purchased shares worth Rs 26,565 crore and Rs 21,832 crore. The three occasions when FII were net sellers were 2015, 2018, and 2022, when they sold shares totalling Rs 3,344 crore, Rs 4,831 crore, and a whopping Rs 50,203 crore. ADVERTISEMENT The Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers on 9 occasions and net sellers just once in 2016 at Rs 2,174 crore. Their highest buying was recorded in 2022 at Rs 46,599 crore. It was followed by 2024 and 2018 when they shopped for shares amounting to Rs 28,633 crore and Rs 14,146 crore, respectively. ADVERTISEMENT The rollover of Nifty futures rose to 79.10% in the May series, slightly higher than April's 79.08% and above the three-month average of 78.09%, SBI Securities said in a note. "This marginal increase in rollover activity, especially amid a narrow-range series, reflects traders' willingness to carry forward their positions, possibly in anticipation of a breakout move. It indicates sustained interest and confidence in the market's underlying structure, hinting at a potentially more active and volatile June series," the SBI Sec note number of shares rolled over surged to 149 lakhs compared to 128 lakh last month, though the rollover cost dipped to 0.52%, below the three-month average of 0.61%.In the new series, the FII long-short ratio dipped sharply to 19.71% at the start of the June series, indicating a cautious stance with reduced long exposure. While this reflects near-term uncertainty, such extreme positioning can act as a contrarian signal, suggesting that any upside move may trigger short covering, potentially accelerating momentum, the SBI Securities note added. ADVERTISEMENT The benchmark index Nifty has been consolidating within a broad range of 25,116–24,462 over the past 13 trading sessions, reflecting market indecision and a lack of clear directional momentum. This extended phase of sideways movement suggests that both buyers and sellers are waiting for a strong trigger before committing to a larger Securities expects the zone of 25,050-25,100 to act as an immediate hurdle for the index and any sustainable move above the level of 25,100 will lead to a sharp upside rally up to the level of 25,500, followed by 25,700 in the short the downside, the brokerage expects a zone of 24,550-24,500 to act as crucial support for the index and any slip below the level of 24,500 will lead to the next support zone of 24,150-24, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments expects the ongoing consolidation phase to likely continue in the near term. In his view, the cues for investors are India's macros and corporate earnings. In the former case, the situation remains strong and is only improving. However, in the latter case, the positive trend in macros is not getting reflected in corporate earnings. "This is the fundamental reason for the range-bound movement of the market. FY25 Nifty earnings growth was a pedestrian 5.5%, and the projection for FY26 is around 10%. A valuation multiple of 21 for 10% earnings growth is certainly on the higher side. This will cap the upside to the Nifty until leading indicators suggest a recovery in earnings growth," Vijayakumar confidence, the Geojit analyst said that steadily improving macros like resilient GDP growth, downtrending inflation, interest rate cuts, and declining fiscal and current account deficits could lay the foundation for a strong economy and eventual earnings recovery in the medium term. He suggested investors remain invested and buy quality stocks on dips. (Data Inputs from Ritesh Presswala) ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
30-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Bulls & bears play tug of war in June over last 10 years. Should you stay put or take a vacation?
June is typically a seasonally neutral month for Indian stock markets . Over the past 10 years, India's heartbeat index, Nifty, has ended the month in positive territory five times, while posting declines in the remaining years. The Nifty's strongest June performance came in 2020, amid the COVID-19 lockdown, with a 7.5% gain. More recently, the index posted solid gains of 6.6% in 2024 and 3.5% in 2023. The said month's returns in 2016 and 2021 stood at 1.6% and 0.9%, respectively. On the five occasions when it closed in the red were in 2015 (-0.8%), 2017 (-1%), 2018 (0.2%), 2019 (-1.1%) and 2022 (-4.9%). FII/DII data So far in 2025, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been net sellers in the first three months while remaining net buyers in April and May when they bought domestic shares worth Rs 4,223 crore and Rs 21,618 crore, respectively. .The FIIs have remained net buyers in June on seven occasions, viz. 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024. In 2023, FIIs bought domestic equities worth Rs 47,148 crore, which remains the highest over the last 10 years. It is followed by 2024 and 2020, when they purchased shares worth Rs 26,565 crore and Rs 21,832 crore. The three occasions when FII were net sellers were 2015, 2018, and 2022, when they sold shares totalling Rs 3,344 crore, Rs 4,831 crore, and a whopping Rs 50,203 crore. The Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers on 9 occasions and net sellers just once in 2016 at Rs 2,174 crore. Their highest buying was recorded in 2022 at Rs 46,599 crore. It was followed by 2024 and 2018 when they shopped for shares amounting to Rs 28,633 crore and Rs 14,146 crore, respectively. Nifty rollover data The rollover of Nifty futures rose to 79.10% in the May series, slightly higher than April's 79.08% and above the three-month average of 78.09%, SBI Securities said in a note. "This marginal increase in rollover activity, especially amid a narrow-range series, reflects traders' willingness to carry forward their positions, possibly in anticipation of a breakout move. It indicates sustained interest and confidence in the market's underlying structure, hinting at a potentially more active and volatile June series," the SBI Sec note said. The number of shares rolled over surged to 149 lakhs compared to 128 lakh last month, though the rollover cost dipped to 0.52%, below the three-month average of 0.61%. In the new series, the FII long-short ratio dipped sharply to 19.71% at the start of the June series, indicating a cautious stance with reduced long exposure. While this reflects near-term uncertainty, such extreme positioning can act as a contrarian signal, suggesting that any upside move may trigger short covering, potentially accelerating momentum, the SBI Securities note added. Nifty on charts The benchmark index Nifty has been consolidating within a broad range of 25,116–24,462 over the past 13 trading sessions, reflecting market indecision and a lack of clear directional momentum. This extended phase of sideways movement suggests that both buyers and sellers are waiting for a strong trigger before committing to a larger move. SBI Securities expects the zone of 25,050-25,100 to act as an immediate hurdle for the index and any sustainable move above the level of 25,100 will lead to a sharp upside rally up to the level of 25,500, followed by 25,700 in the short term. On the downside, the brokerage expects a zone of 24,550-24,500 to act as crucial support for the index and any slip below the level of 24,500 will lead to the next support zone of 24,150-24,100. What should investors do? Expert VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments expects the ongoing consolidation phase to likely continue in the near term. In his view, the cues for investors are India's macros and corporate earnings. In the former case, the situation remains strong and is only improving. However, in the latter case, the positive trend in macros is not getting reflected in corporate earnings. "This is the fundamental reason for the range-bound movement of the market. FY25 Nifty earnings growth was a pedestrian 5.5%, and the projection for FY26 is around 10%. A valuation multiple of 21 for 10% earnings growth is certainly on the higher side. This will cap the upside to the Nifty until leading indicators suggest a recovery in earnings growth," Vijayakumar said. Exuding confidence, the Geojit analyst said that steadily improving macros like resilient GDP growth, downtrending inflation, interest rate cuts, and declining fiscal and current account deficits could lay the foundation for a strong economy and eventual earnings recovery in the medium term. He suggested investors remain invested and buy quality stocks on dips. (Data Inputs from Ritesh Presswala) ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Economic Times
27-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
The Leela IPO booked 9% on Day 2 so far; GMP at 2.5%. Should you subscribe?
The Leela IPO, valued at Rs 3,500 crore, consists of a fresh issue worth Rs 2,500 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) totalling Rs 1,000 crore. The IPO opened for subscription on May 26 and will close on May 28. Share allotment is expected on May 29, while the company is scheduled to debut on the stock exchanges on June 2. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The Leela GMP Here is what brokerage firms have to say about the issue: SBI Securities Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Bajaj Broking Lemonn Markets Desk The Leela IPO key dates Continuing to receive a lagging response from the investors, the initial public offering (IPO) of Schloss Bangalore Limited , the operator of The Leela Palaces, Hotels & Resorts, has received only a 9% subscription so far on the second day of the highest subscription was witnessed in the retail investors category, which was booked 30% by 12 PM on Tuesday. Meanwhile, non-institutional investors (NIIs) and qualified institutional buyers (QIBs) had subscribed to their allocation by 6% and 3% issue, which opened for public subscription on Monday, was subscribed to by just 6% on the first IPO attracted a subscription of 20% from the retail investors, while the non-institutional investors (NIIs) and qualified institutional buyers (QIBs) subscribed to the issue by 3% each on the first of the launch of its public issue, the company secured Rs 1,575 crore from 47 prominent domestic and global anchor investors, with shares allotted at the upper end of the price band at Rs 435 Bangalore Limited allotted over 3.62 crore equity shares to anchor investors, including 1.42 crore shares allocated to nine domestic mutual funds across a total of 20 the top global funds that have invested in the company are Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, and Societe Rs 3,500 crore IPO comprises a fresh issue of Rs 2,500 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) valued at Rs 1,000 Bangalore shares are trading at a grey market premium of 2.5%, or Rs 11-12, in the unlisted market ahead of their D-Street company is valued at an FY25 EV/EBITDA multiple of 26.3x at post-issue capital of the upper price band. The company's Revenue/EBITDA has grown at a CAGR of 23%/25% respectively over the last 2 years, while on a net basis, the business has turned profitable in company's presence in the luxury space offers high growth opportunities as the luxury segment within the hospitality sector is likely to grow at a higher pace. The company will repay its debt from the IPO proceeds, which will result in lower D/E from the current 1.1x and improved Broking recommends subscribing to the issue for the long a revenue rise and EBITDA growth to Rs 600 crore in FY24, Schloss posted a net loss of Rs 2.13 crore for the year and an additional Rs 36.4 crore loss in the first two months of negative EPS (Rs –0.12) and net asset value (Rs –160.57) make standard valuation ratios like P/E and RoNW irrelevant or company's valuation appears steep compared to profitable peers like Indian Hotels and EIH, despite its strong brand and asset-light model. Investors are advised to approach the IPO with caution, as it is more of a brand-led growth bet than one backed by current Gaurav Garg of Lemonn Markets Desk said that Schloss Bangalore IPO is a long-term bet on the formalisation and premiumization of India's travel and hospitality sector. Investors with a patient outlook and appetite for high-quality consumption should consider subscribing to the issue.'As the company deleverages and executes its expansion plans, shareholders may be well-positioned to benefit from compounding gains in a high-margin business,' he IPO of Schloss Bangalore Limited (The Leela) opened for subscription on May 26, and will close on May 28. Share allotment is expected on May 29, while the company is scheduled to debut on the stock exchanges on June 2.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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Business Standard
26-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Aegis Vopak IPO sees muted response; subscription lags at 7%, GMP 6%
Aegis Vopak Terminals IPO subscription status Day 1: The initial public offering (IPO) of Aegis Vopak Terminals opened for subscription today, May 26, 2025. The mainline IPO is receiving a muted response from investors as the issue was subscribed only 7 per cent as of 2 PM on Day 1, according to data from National Stock Exchange (NSE). The quota reserved for retail investors was subscribed over 14 per cent, followed by qualified institutional buyers (QIBs) at 7 per cent. However, the qualified institutional buyers (QIBs) quota was subscribed only 2 per cent so far. Aegis Vopak Terminals IPO GMP On Monday, the unlisted shares of Aegis Vopak Terminals were trading at ₹249.5, commanding a grey market premium (GMP) of ₹14.5 or 6.1 per cent compared to the upper price band of ₹235, according to sources tracking unofficial market activities. Aegis Vopak Terminals IPO review Analysts have recommended subscribing to the issue on a long-term basis. According to analysts at SBI Securities, the industry outlook is strong and Aegis Vopak Terminals being the largest player by capacity could be a key beneficiary of industry tailwinds. "Long-term investors with high-risk appetite may subscribe to the issue, however listing gains are likely to be muted," SBI Securities said in a research note. READ MORE Aegis Vopak Terminals IPO details The three-day bidding window will close on Wednesday, May 28, 2025. The basis of the allotment of shares is likely to be finalised on Thursday, May 29, 2025. Shares of Aegis Vopak will be listed on both exchanges, NSE and BSE, tentatively on Monday, June 2, 2025. The ₹2,800-crore issue comprises a fresh issue of 119.14 million shares. There is no offer for sale (OFS) component. The price band for the Aegis Vopak Terminals IPO is set at ₹223-235 per equity share. Retail investors would require a minimum investment amount of ₹14,049 to bid for one lot comprising 63 shares. MUFG Intime India, formerly Link Intime, is the registrar of the issue. ICICI Securities, BNP Paribas, IIFL Securities, Jefferies India, and HDFC Bank are the book-running lead managers for the issue. According to the red herring prospectus (RHP), the company aims to use the net issue proceeds for repayment or prepayment of all or a portion of certain outstanding borrowings and funding capital expenditure towards the contracted acquisition of the cryogenic LPG terminal at Mangalore. The remaining funds will be used for general corporate purposes. About Aegis Vopak Terminals Aegis Vopak Terminals is India's leading third-party owner and operator of tank storage terminals for LPG and liquid products. It is a joint venture between Aegis Logistics and Royal Vopak. The company has presence over both East and West coasts of India and aims to expand its footprint along the coastal necklace of India. Aegis Vopak caters to marquee names across sectors including traders, manufacturers, chemicals and fuel marketing companies across private and public sectors, as well as local and international businesses.
Business Mayor
19-05-2025
- Business
- Business Mayor
Railways PSU ETF delivers 16% in a week. Is this the right opportunity for portfolio diversification?
The Groww Nifty India Railways PSU ETF rose 16.41% during this period, while the Groww Nifty India Railways PSU Index Fund, which also tracks the railway sector, delivered a 16.35% return. Also Read | Sensex @82,300: Should mutual fund investors alter their investment strategy? These schemes are benchmarked against the Nifty India Railways PSU Index – TRI, which surged 16.46% during the same period. 'The rally in railway stocks is part of sector rotation in the market, as PSU stocks—particularly those that were beaten down during the recent correction—are now outperforming,' said Sunny Agrawal, Head of Fundamental Research at SBI Securities, in a statement to ET Bureau. Agrawal also noted that Tube Investments of India, during its recent earnings call, mentioned that railway order inflows are back on track, easing concerns about a slowdown in the sector. According to a report by ET Bureau, shares of railway-related companies surged in a breakout rally on Friday, riding the bullish momentum in mid-cap and small-cap stocks amid optimism that Railway orders have resumed. The report further highlighted that on Thursday, Rail Vikas Nigam, in a stock exchange disclosure, announced it had received a Rs 115.8 crore contract for upgradation work from Central Railway. Also Read | Flexi Cap vs. Multi Asset Allocation Mutual Funds: Which one is best for you? Separately, Ircon International informed the exchanges on Thursday that it had received a Letter of Acceptance (LoA) from North Western Railway for the 'Provision of Remote Diagnostic & Predictive Maintenance System', valued at Rs 51.6 crore. Despite the recent rally, shares of most railway-related companies remain 10–25% below their pre-correction levels, with the decline beginning in late September. Apurva Sheth, Head of Research at Samco Securities, noted that defence and railway stocks moved in tandem during last year's bull market, and a similar performance trend is playing out again now.
