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The Star
4 days ago
- Business
- The Star
China should mull a 4% GDP target, focus on jobs, debts in next five years, says former official
A former senior economic planner has called for China's annual growth target to be lowered for the next five years, factoring in the likelihood of a protracted rivalry with the United States and the need to solve deep-rooted structural problems in China. Xu Lin, who helped draft Beijing's five-year plan for decades while an official at the National Development and Reform Commission, made the comments as the world's second-largest economy is increasingly relying on economic planning for continued growth. Compared with some market estimates of around 4.5 per cent annual growth from 2026-30, he said the potential growth rate and growth target figure should be around 4 per cent in the next five to 10 years, owing to China's shrinking population, its falling savings and production rate, and other headwinds. Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team. 'It is inappropriate to set a target higher than the potential growth in China's 15th five-year plan, if considering the complex international environment and domestic difficulties such as property, the debt down-cycle and weak market confidence,' Xu told Comparative Studies magazine in an interview published on social media on Tuesday. 'An annual 4 per cent GDP growth would be very good if employment can be expanded and the debt ratio is controlled,' said Xu, who is now academic director of the Pangoal Institution, a Beijing-based think tank, and also chairman of China-US Green Fund. China did not give a quantitative growth target in its 2021-2025 development plan, but the market has largely been estimating an annual expansion of at least 4.8 per cent until 2035 based on leadership's goal of doubling the country's gross domestic product by then. "Given the intensification of China-US strategic competition, the external environment will become more complicated" Growth pressure has been mounting since the pandemic and amid a tumultuous trade war with the US. Meanwhile, the potential for growth and Chinese leadership's assessment of the external environment are important factors in Beijing's setting of economic growth targets. 'Given the intensification of China-US strategic competition, the external environment will become more complicated over the next five years,' he said, adding that 'this will bring new uncertainties for outbound Chinese investment and its reliance on the international market and resources'. Despite China's rapid advancements in artificial intelligence and robotics, Xu said more consideration should be given to how much these sectors can meaningfully lift economic growth. The ex-official also warned against using short-term stimulus measures, suggesting instead that the government roll back outdated supply-side curbs that stifle demand in high-elasticity sectors such as services, culture and leisure, as such curbs are choking consumption before it can take root. He advocated for unleashing market forces, expanding private-sector participation, and advancing structural reforms to ensure long-term, resilient growth. 'The most dynamic and fastest-growing periods of China's economy since the reform and opening-up era were often when the market was given the most freedom – even if things looked a little chaotic,' Xu said. Xu also pointed to three structural shifts – the rise of the service economy, digital and intelligent transformation, and the green transition – as long-term engines of sustainable growth. He said those areas could fuel China's economic momentum for the next two decades. With flexible job creation and low entry barriers, the sector has become a safety net during economic slowdowns – absorbing laid-off workers through platforms such as food delivery, logistics and ride-hailing. Services now account for 48 per cent of total employment, outpacing both manufacturing and agriculture, which create 29 and 23 per cent of jobs, respectively. The services sector also generates more jobs per unit of GDP than other sectors. Cities such as Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore and New York offer valuable lessons, he said, with mature service economies that China could look to for inspiration. President Xi Jinping this week called for public input on China's 2026-30 national development plan, with a stated emphasis on science, technology and modernisation – a sign of the leadership's evolving strategic priorities. A full blueprint, including detailed economic and social targets, is expected to be unveiled in March. More from South China Morning Post: For the latest news from the South China Morning Post download our mobile app. Copyright 2025.
The Star
5 days ago
- Health
- The Star
Hong Kong warned of surge in inflammatory bowel disease rates
The number of Hongkongers suffering from incurable chronic gut conditions could surge by 150 per cent over a 20-year period due to unhealthy diets, high in sugar and fat, according to a global study. Scientists from the study that was co-led by researchers from Hong Kong and Canada raised the alarm after a projection model estimated that the prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease in the city would rise from 40 cases per 100,000 people in 2014 to 100 in 2034. 'The 150 per cent increase in the total number in terms of prevalence – this is quite scary,' said Professor Ng Siew Chien, associate dean of the Chinese University of Hong Kong's medical school and an expert in gastroenterology who co-led the study. Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team. 'We call this probably an explosion.' Researchers found that the rates were related to economic development and that less developed places, such as Malaysia and mainland China, had lower rates than Hong Kong, although they were also trending upwards. IBD refers to a group of conditions that cause swelling and inflammation of tissue in the digestive tract, with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis being the two most common types. Common symptoms of such conditions include diarrhoea, abdominal pains and cramps, and blood in the stool. IBD sufferers are also more likely to develop serious illnesses such as colon cancer. The researchers' projection model is based on real-world data collected from more than 500 studies in 82 regions that took place between 1920 and 2024. It also anticipated a rise in the local incidence rate for IBD, which involves the number of new cases per 100,000 people. While the rate in Hong Kong was 0.1 in 1985, it rose to about three in 2013 and is estimated to have exceeded four in 2023. The figures placed the city in the second part of a four-stage model outlined in the study, meaning it was experiencing a phase of 'acceleration in incidence' in IBD cases. Other jurisdictions that were seeing similar trends to Hong Kong included many relatively newly industrialised nations in Asia and Latin America, such as mainland China, Japan and South Korea. In the mainland, the rate of new cases rose from two per 100,000 people in 2010, to 15 in 2020. The total number of IBD patients in the country is expected to exceed 1.5 million by this year, according to Ng. The study, which was published in top scientific journal Nature last month, placed countries with low incidence and prevalence rates, such as many places in Africa, in the stage one category. Most countries in North America, Europe and Oceania were classified as being in stage three, meaning the number of new cases had already slowed down, but the total number of patients had steadily increased. While such conditions are not fatal and can be managed with medications and treatments, they cannot be cured. Serious cases can require surgery to remove a patient's colon and rectum, who must then carry a pouch to collect their waste. The late Shinzo Abe resigned as the prime minister of Japan in 2020 due to his struggles with ulcerative colitis. Study co-leader Professor Gilaad Kaplan, a gastroenterologist from the medical school of Canada's University of Calgary, said increases in new cases of IBD correlated with economic advancement. 'The earlier a country transitions into economic advancements, the earlier we see that trigger into stage two,' he said. Kaplan said that while higher incidence and prevalence rates were due to improved detection and diagnostic tools in economically advanced regions, environmental factors also played a crucial role. A person's diet was one of the strongest pillars under the category of environmental factors that contributed to a rise in cases, Kaplan and Ng said. Diets that were high in fat, sugar, ultra-processed foods, additives and colourings could change the health of a person's gut, she said. 'These foods actually affect our gut microbiome, which is the bacteria and viruses inside our gut,' the researcher said. 'They can induce [and] increase bacteria that can cause inflammation ... These bacteria produce toxins and chemicals inside the gut, and then it makes the gut very thin.' Ng explained that the resulting toxins and inflammatory responses inside the gut could then disturb one's immune system. She added that a growing number of IBD patients could see the local healthcare system face an increased economic burden, citing her own separate analysis on the topic. The academic noted that the average medical cost for a patient with the condition was about HK$40,000 to HK$50,000 (US$6,380) a year, about twice the amount paid by someone suffering from type 2 diabetes. Kaplan, meanwhile, said that IBD patients would get older and become more challenging to manage if they developed other conditions such as diabetes or dementia. Both researchers called for preventive actions to slow down IBD's growing prevalence and incidence rates. 'Our models show that if we can prevent the incidence of new diagnoses, even just by a small amount, that has a huge impact on blunting the overall growth or prevalence of the disease,' Kaplan said. He added that people could stave off such conditions by adopting a healthy, whole food diet, while officials could create policies that increased the availability of healthy foods. Sharing her tips on preventing the condition among the children of IBD patients, Ng said: 'Less processed food; just cook everything from scratch. Try not to use so many antibiotics if you can, because that changes the gut microbiome as well.' More from South China Morning Post: For the latest news from the South China Morning Post download our mobile app. Copyright 2025.
The Star
5 days ago
- Health
- The Star
Rita, Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin at Hong Kong's Ocean Park, dies at 24
A 24-year-old Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin named Rita has died at Hong Kong's Ocean Park after showing signs of fatigue and a loss of appetite. The marine mammal had lived in the park for about 13 years after she was transferred from Tunisia. Investigations into her death are ongoing. 'Rita was a playful animal who got along well with her dolphin and human mates, and was a beloved animal ambassador living in the Marine Mammal Breeding and Research Centre next to the Ocean Park Veterinary Centre,' a park spokesman said. Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team. She had refused to eat and showed signs of tiredness since Friday. The park said that veterinarians performed thorough examinations and blood tests on the dolphin, which caretakers looked after around the clock. But her health conditions worsened and she died on Sunday afternoon. The park has conducted a necropsy to determine the cause of death, while further laboratory tests are under way. The spokesman said that students had learned about and appreciated the natural behaviour and daily care of dolphins up close through guided tours, and were inspired to contribute to marine conservation. 'The park expresses its gratitude to Rita for conveying conservation messages to visitors. She will forever hold a special place in our hearts and memories,' he said. Rita was transferred to Hong Kong from Friguia Park in Tunisia in November 2012, after the facility closed its dolphin show, according to Ceta-Base, an online database of captive-held cetaceans across the world. She gave birth to a male calf named Rati in September 2015. In 2021, Ocean Park announced that Milo, a seven-year-old female Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin, died after suffering acute haemorrhagic enteritis, or inflammation of the intestines. More from South China Morning Post: For the latest news from the South China Morning Post download our mobile app. Copyright 2025.
The Star
6 days ago
- Business
- The Star
The Ohio legislation that could force Chinese scientists to sell their US homes
Xiang Zhang, a professor of genomics at the University of Cincinnati, drove more than 1,000 miles over two days to oppose a proposed law that would force him to sell his home, even though he is a US permanent resident. 'I never thought that one day, I would have to stand here in front of you to defend myself solely because of my nationality,' he told a packed hearing room in the Ohio Statehouse on Tuesday morning, after cutting short a trip to make it back and give his testimony. 'I never thought that one day, I would lose my house in Ohio solely because of my nationality.' Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team. Zhang – who arrived in the US in 1998 with just a suitcase and a US$100 bill, and now leads a major research facility that supports hundreds of life scientists across the country – told Public Safety Committee lawmakers that he had been living his American dream. The midwestern state is following in the footsteps of Florida and Texas by proposing legislation to ban non-citizens from 'foreign adversary' countries – such as China, Iran, and Russia – from owning land within 25 miles (40km) of critical infrastructure. House Bill 1, which is supposed to address national security concerns like espionage and cyberattacks, would apply even to green card holders like Zhang. Under SB 88, a related Senate bill, he would be required to sell his house within two years. Ohio Realtors, the state's largest professional trade association, said House Bill 1 would be likely to become 'the most restrictive law of its kind in the entire nation'. Unlike similar laws, Ohio's bill covers nearly all real estate in the state and makes no exceptions for legal residents. In testimony, the association warned that the bill's broad definition of critical infrastructure – which includes electric generation plants, water treatment facilities, and telecommunication systems – would make nearly all property in Ohio off-limits to affected immigrants. The association also noted that the bill could face legal challenges for potentially violating federal laws, including the Fair Housing Act and the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution. It would also hinder Ohio's universities from 'attracting the best talent from across the globe'. About 100 people attended the hearing, making it one of the most well-attended in recent years, a Statehouse employee said. The crowd was so large that some had to move to an overflow room to watch a live stream of the event. Many in the room were US citizens who would not be directly affected by the bill. They said they came to speak out against what they viewed as a discriminatory law. Among those who testified was Anquan Wang, a senior aerospace engineer at GE Aerospace in Cincinnati. With decades of experience in the aviation industry, Wang said that he had had first-hand encounters with overseas attempts to steal US technologies. 'We need to counter real foreign adversaries. We need to be laser-focused, because the threat is real,' he said. 'But targeting ordinary people who came here legally to study and work is out of focus. Depriving them of constitutional rights to acquire properties is completely wrong and has nothing to do with national security.' Wang said the bill made him feel discriminated against, as it targeted individuals based on national origin – something no one could choose. By casting all citizens from certain countries as potential threats, the law promoted fear and prejudice, he added. 'House Bill 1 is about racial profiling and fear mongering. If this isn't racial profiling, I don't know what racial profiling is. If this isn't fear mongering, I don't know what fear mongering is.' Wang added that his colleague and neighbour Dr Li, a China-born US citizen and senior military aircraft engineer, was already considering leaving Ohio because of the bill. 'Dr Li has worked on military aircraft engine programmes for more than 20 years,' he said. 'When experienced people like him start to leave, it's a great loss to our company. Twenty years of experience in our industry is worth tens of millions of dollars. It also hurts our defence programmes.' I've always believed in passing on my knowledge and skills to the next generation of scientists here in the US, because science, at its heart, is about building something greater than ourselves Wing Keung Chan, a biomedical researcher at The Ohio State University in Columbus, said he had noticed a steady decline in the number of China-born scientists around him over the past couple of years. The bill would only accelerate that trend, he said. Chan, who came to the US in 2008 after completing his PhD at the University of Hong Kong, said he came to pursue his American dream and now worked alongside both Americans and immigrant colleagues on diseases that affected everybody. His efforts included supporting clinical trials, mentoring students, and collaborating across institutions. 'I've always believed in passing on my knowledge and skills to the next generation of scientists here in the US, because science, at its heart, is about building something greater than ourselves,' he said. Citing data from Science and other leading journals, Chan noted that China-born researchers made up a significant portion of the US medical and STEM workforce, contributing heavily to research, healthcare, and higher education. But growing suspicion towards scientists of Chinese descent had already taken a toll, he said. Nearly 20,000 left the US between 2010 and 2021, including more than 1,000 life scientists who departed in 2021 alone. 'Legislation like House Bill 1 and Senate Bill 88 does not protect our future – it jeopardises it,' Chan said. 'It risks turning away the very people who help make Ohio a leader in research, innovation, and healthcare.' Following the hearing, committee chairwoman Cindy Abrams reportedly announced the bill would be amended before advancing further. One possible change would exempt green card holders, but many attendees said that would not go far enough. Xin Yuan, a green card holder and vice-president at JPMorgan Chase & Co in Columbus, warned that if the bill passed, it would send a message to the rest of the country and encourage other states to adopt similar legislation. Yuan testified that her greatest concern was for her young son, who was born in Ohio and considered it home. 'My biggest fear when I had him was how to protect him,' she said. 'If we don't even have the basic right to have a home, what am I supposed to tell him – and how can I protect him?' More from South China Morning Post: For the latest news from the South China Morning Post download our mobile app. Copyright 2025.
The Star
24-05-2025
- Health
- The Star
China's 2019 fentanyl embargo led to drop in US overdoses, study finds
US President Donald Trump angered Beijing when he cited China's involvement in the fentanyl trade as the reason for imposing tariffs in February. But new research indicates that cooperation between the two nations to crack down on the drug's trafficking can disrupt its supply chain and reduce overdose deaths. A paper by the Peterson Institute for International Economics this month found that a 2019 embargo by China on the export of fentanyl and precursor chemicals caused a temporary spike in the drug's street price in the US, which deterred its use and reduced fentanyl-related overdose deaths by up to 25 per cent over a period of three to five months. Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team. Beijing imposed a strict drug control policy in May 2019, adding all fentanyl-related substances to its list of controlled substances, restricting their export. 'The Chinese embargo of fentanyl exports to the United States in May 2019 does appear to have affected prices,' the paper said, estimating that absent China's restrictions, as many as 947 more Americans would have died from a fentanyl overdose. The Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that nationwide deaths from fentanyl overdoses from May 1 to August 1 in 2019 was 2,254, rising to 3,807 by October 1, with the total death toll for the year estimated at 34,268. Despite the drug's addictive nature, the study found, users responded to price changes: a price rise of 1 per cent was associated with a decrease of as much as 4 per cent in the monthly growth rate of fentanyl-related overdose deaths. Fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, is the primary driver of US drug overdoses, an issue that Washington has blamed on China, where many of the drug's precursor ingredients are produced. The US and China have engaged in multiple rounds of negotiations related to fentanyl since Trump's first administration. Beijing's restrictions on fentanyl came after Trump, then in his first term, met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2018 at the G20 summit in Argentina. Peterson determined that a clear and immediate effect could be seen, with prices for the drug increasing in the US over a limited duration. However, the research also indicated that as supply routes shifted into Mexico, the effect did not last. In 2022, for example, after then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, Beijing suspended all counternarcotics cooperation with Washington. The report, though, found this breakdown had no significant effect on fentanyl supply or use, indicating that the drug's supply chain had already shifted to third-country smuggling. After the break over Pelosi's trip, cooperation resumed in November 2023 following a meeting between President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping at the Apec summit in California. A bilateral counternarcotics working group was formed in early 2024, but the study did not include its impact. Fentanyl-related deaths in the US rose steadily for years, from an estimated 29,725 in 2018 to a high of 76,282 in 2023. Until 2023, CDC did not publish exact figures for fentanyl alone, instead tracking death rates involving 'synthetic opioids other than methadone'. But the sharp upwards trend has begun to ease. According to CDC estimates, overdose deaths linked to fentanyl dropped to 48,422 in 2024. Fentanyl has also been among the second Trump administration's primary issues with China. In February, Trump imposed 20 per cent duties on Chinese imports – as well as 25 per cent tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports – in the name of stopping trafficking of fentanyl into the US. Those China tariffs remain in effect despite the talks in Switzerland this month that led to significant cuts in other levies. As fentanyl production has shifted to Mexico, the Peterson report concluded, Washington may need to expand its focus beyond Beijing, meaning that real progress in the fight against fentanyl will require coordinated international efforts – not only with China. 'Our analysis highlights the large potential benefits of international cooperation regarding drug enforcement,' it added. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said this month that the US had used fentanyl as 'a pretext' to impose tariffs on China 'without justification', and that China would maintain its retaliatory tariffs. He also said in a separate briefing that the tariffs 'significantly undermine the dialogue and cooperation between China and the United States in the field of counter-narcotics'. More from South China Morning Post: For the latest news from the South China Morning Post download our mobile app. Copyright 2025.
