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Business Recorder
25-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Asian currencies gains
BENGALURU: Emerging Asian stock markets held on to their rallies on Thursday, as a flurry of agreements between regional economies and Washington lifted investor optimism and increased their appetite for riskier assets. The MSCI index of emerging Asian equities rose as much as 0.5% to its highest level since September 2021, while a sub-index tracking ASEAN stocks, led by heavyweight Singaporean banks, hit a 10-month peak. However, Thailand diverged from the rally as the baht was the only emerging Asian currency to weaken, while the benchmark SET Index fell 1.1%, as escalating border tensions with Cambodia unnerved investors. A Thai F-16 fighter jet bombed targets across the border, both governments confirmed, after weeks of rising friction over disputed territory erupted into violence, leaving at least two civilians dead. Analysts at Phillip Securities said the heightened geopolitical risk had undermined expectations for cross-border trade, making it unlikely the two nations will meet their 480 billion baht ($14.88 billion) bilateral trade target by 2027. However, driving the rally in Asia was growing conviction that more trade pacts with the United States could follow recent deals signed with Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. These agreements, struck at tariff levels lower than initially feared, have soothed fears of a prolonged trade war and reinvigorated risk-on sentiment across the region. In currency markets, the upbeat trade outlook sparked a retreat in the US dollar, lifting emerging market currencies across the board. The MSCI global EM currency index rose to its highest in over two weeks. The South Korean won led regional gains, climbing 0.5% to its strongest level since July 8, helped by data showing the economy expanded at its fastest pace in over a year during the second quarter. Elsewhere, the Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and Singapore dollar appreciated between 0.1% and 0.2%.
The Star
24-07-2025
- Business
- The Star
Emerging Markets - Thai assets stumble amid border clashes, but Asia stocks rally on trade boost
BANGKOK (Reuters): Emerging Asian stock markets held on to their rallies on Thursday, as a flurry of agreements between regional economies and Washington lifted investor optimism and increased their appetite for riskier assets. The MSCI index of emerging Asian equities rose as much as 0.5% to its highest level since September 2021, while a sub-index tracking ASEAN stocks, led by heavyweight Singaporean banks, hit a 10-month peak. However, Thailand diverged from the rally as the baht was the only emerging Asian currency to weaken, while the benchmark SET Index fell 1.1%, as escalating border tensions with Cambodia unnerved investors. A Thai F-16 fighter jet bombed targets across the border, both governments confirmed, after weeks of rising friction over disputed territory erupted into violence, leaving at least 11 civilians dead. Analysts at Phillip Securities said the heightened geopolitical risk had undermined expectations for cross-border trade, making it unlikely the two nations will meet their 480 billion baht ($14.88 billion) bilateral trade target by 2027. However, driving the rally in Asia was growing conviction that more trade pacts with the United States could follow recent deals signed with Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. These agreements, struck at tariff levels lower than initially feared, have soothed fears of a prolonged trade war and reinvigorated risk-on sentiment across the region. "The Philippines and Japan trade deals put the pressure on South Korea and the rest of emerging markets to secure one," said Trinh Nguyen and Kelvin Tong at Natixis. "Putting together the latest deals (Japan and the Philippines), it becomes increasingly clear that 10% is the new zero and economies are conceding to a higher but still manageable tariff level to secure market access to the US," they said. Indonesia continued its sharp ascent, adding 0.9% on the day and extending its rally to roughly 10% over the last 14 sessions. The index has fallen just once during that stretch, snapping an 11-day winning streak earlier this week. A recently concluded trade agreement with Washington, which included reduced tariff threats, alongside dovish signals from the central bank, has driven sustained foreign inflows. Singapore's benchmark also rose 0.7%, while equities in Malaysia, Taiwan and China advanced between 0.2% and 0.6%, underscoring broad regional strength. In currency markets, the upbeat trade outlook sparked a retreat in the U.S. dollar, lifting emerging market currencies across the board. The MSCI global EM currency index rose to its highest in over two weeks. The South Korean won led regional gains, climbing 0.5% to its strongest level since July 8, helped by data showing the economy expanded at its fastest pace in over a year during the second quarter. Elsewhere, the Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and Singapore dollar appreciated between 0.1% and 0.2%. - Reuters
Bangkok Post
24-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Brokerage sees Thai equities recovering
Thai equities are expected to recover in the second half of 2025, supported by expansionary fiscal measures, a more accommodative monetary policy stance and key earnings drivers, according to Asia Plus Securities (ASPS). According to Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, ASPS's executive vice-president, the government's forthcoming fiscal stimulus -- likely to follow the approval of the 2026 annual budget -- combined with anticipated policy rate cuts, could improve market sentiment. ASPS estimates that each 25-basis-point rate cut could lift the SET Index by around 70 points. "The timing is now appropriate for a rate cut. Given the current economic conditions, we expect 1-2 policy rate reductions this year, each of which could act as a catalyst for the equity market," Mr Therdsak noted. ASPS also sees additional upside from specific corporate catalysts. These include the anticipated mid-August relisting of Thai Airways International Plc (THAI) and a major strategic transaction by Siam Cement Group (SCC). Both are expected to help push the SET's earnings per share (EPS) above 90 baht in 2025. The broader economic environment also supports policy easing. Bond yields have declined, the baht has strengthened, and traditional growth drivers -- especially exports -- have weakened. ASPS also cautioned that the risk of higher US import tariffs on Thai goods could further dampen export momentum in the latter half of 2025. Key external risks to monitor include ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East -- currently subdued -- and the Thai-Cambodian border dispute, which has de-escalated into a "social media war". Domestically, political uncertainty is unlikely to obstruct passage of the 2026 budget, and markets appear to have already priced in much of the concern over potential US trade retaliation. However, final clarity on US tariff rates for each country remains crucial. If Thailand ends up with a higher tariff burden than regional peers, it could slip into a technical recession, potentially triggering more aggressive fiscal and monetary responses. Despite these concerns, ASPS believes export-related earnings risks are manageable. In the worst-case scenario, US tariffs would reduce total revenue for four key export sectors -- agriculture, food, petrochemicals and electronics -- by 3.1% and profits by only 1.1%. According to ASPS, fears that the SET Index could plunge to a new low near 1,056 points have likely passed. Nonetheless, elevated tariffs could deter foreign direct investment. "If Thailand remains at a 36% tariff rate while Vietnam and Indonesia are at 20% and 19%, respectively, we may lose competitiveness in attracting new investment. That said, there's still a sizeable pool of Board of Investment-approved projects in the pipeline, which should sustain investment activity for some time," Mr Therdsak added. ASPS expects listed companies to post flat earnings on a quarterly basis in the second quarter of 2025, with total profits of around 262 billion baht. For the full year, earnings are projected at 1.06 trillion baht, or 86 baht per share, representing 17% year-on-year growth. Sectors likely to show sustained third-quarter momentum include electronics, healthcare, property and transportation. Investor sentiment is also improving. Thai listed companies have repurchased shares worth 24 billion baht year-to-date, matching the total recorded for the whole of 2024, signalling renewed corporate confidence. Meanwhile, margin call pressures have eased, with margin loan balances declining to pre-Covid levels, suggesting reduced risk of forced selling. Thailand's stock market has staged a strong rebound, delivering the best returns globally over the past month. This momentum increases the likelihood that MSCI and FTSE will raise Thailand's weighting in their August reviews -- potentially attracting further foreign inflows. ASPS maintains a conservative year-end SET Index target of 1,376 points, based on an EPS estimate of 86 baht and a policy rate of 1.75%. With the index currently trading in the 1,140–1,170 range, there is significant upside potential. The firm recommends a diversified investment strategy, with a focus on high-dividend-yield stocks across multiple sectors.
Bangkok Post
23-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
ASPS sees Thai equities recovering
Thai equities are expected to recover in the second half of 2025, supported by expansionary fiscal measures, a more accommodative monetary policy stance and key earnings drivers, according to Asia Plus Securities (ASPS). According to Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, ASPS's executive vice-president, the government's forthcoming fiscal stimulus -- likely to follow the approval of the 2026 annual budget -- combined with anticipated policy rate cuts, could improve market sentiment. ASPS estimates that each 25-basis-point rate cut could lift the SET Index by around 70 points. "The timing is now appropriate for a rate cut. Given the current economic conditions, we expect 1-2 policy rate reductions this year, each of which could act as a catalyst for the equity market," Mr Therdsak noted. ASPS also sees additional upside from specific corporate catalysts. These include the anticipated mid-August relisting of Thai Airways International Plc (THAI) and a major strategic transaction by Siam Cement Group (SCC). Both are expected to help push the SET's earnings per share (EPS) above 90 baht in 2025. The broader economic environment also supports policy easing. Bond yields have declined, the baht has strengthened, and traditional growth drivers -- especially exports -- have weakened. ASPS also cautioned that the risk of higher US import tariffs on Thai goods could further dampen export momentum in the latter half of 2025. Key external risks to monitor include ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East -- currently subdued -- and the Thai-Cambodian border dispute, which has de-escalated into a "social media war". Domestically, political uncertainty is unlikely to obstruct passage of the 2026 budget, and markets appear to have already priced in much of the concern over potential US trade retaliation. However, final clarity on US tariff rates for each country remains crucial. If Thailand ends up with a higher tariff burden than regional peers, it could slip into a technical recession, potentially triggering more aggressive fiscal and monetary responses. Despite these concerns, ASPS believes export-related earnings risks are manageable. In the worst-case scenario, US tariffs would reduce total revenue for four key export sectors -- agriculture, food, petrochemicals and electronics -- by 3.1% and profits by only 1.1%. According to ASPS, fears that the SET Index could plunge to a new low near 1,056 points have likely passed. Nonetheless, elevated tariffs could deter foreign direct investment. "If Thailand remains at a 36% tariff rate while Vietnam and Indonesia are at 20% and 19%, respectively, we may lose competitiveness in attracting new investment. That said, there's still a sizeable pool of Board of Investment-approved projects in the pipeline, which should sustain investment activity for some time," Mr Therdsak added. ASPS expects listed companies to post flat earnings on a quarterly basis in the second quarter of 2025, with total profits of around 262 billion baht. For the full year, earnings are projected at 1.06 trillion baht, or 86 baht per share, representing 17% year-on-year growth. Sectors likely to show sustained third-quarter momentum include electronics, healthcare, property and transportation. Investor sentiment is also improving. Thai listed companies have repurchased shares worth 24 billion baht year-to-date, matching the total recorded for the whole of 2024, signalling renewed corporate confidence. Meanwhile, margin call pressures have eased, with margin loan balances declining to pre-Covid levels, suggesting reduced risk of forced selling. Thailand's stock market has staged a strong rebound, delivering the best returns globally over the past month. This momentum increases the likelihood that MSCI and FTSE will raise Thailand's weighting in their August reviews -- potentially attracting further foreign inflows. ASPS maintains a conservative year-end SET Index target of 1,376 points, based on an EPS estimate of 86 baht and a policy rate of 1.75%. With the index currently trading in the 1,140–1,170 range, there is significant upside potential. The firm recommends a diversified investment strategy, with a focus on high-dividend-yield stocks across multiple sectors.
Bangkok Post
23-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
SET approves THAI's return to trading from Aug 4
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has approved the reinstatement of Thai Airways International Plc (THAI) on the main trading board from Aug 4, following a long debt restructuring process. THAI was flagged for potential delisting after its 2020 financial statements showed negative shareholders' equity. Since then, the national carrier has completed a bankruptcy court-approved debt restructuring process to rectify its financial position and meet all criteria required to resume trading. As part of the reinstatement process, the airline has submitted a formal request to the SET for the removal of the delisting alert and to resume trading. It has agreed to comply with the Silent Period regulation, which restricts strategic shareholders from selling 55% of paid-up capital for a period of one year. The SET has consequently removed the 'SP' (suspension) and 'NC' (non-compliance) signs on THAI securities and will allow trading to resume under the Services Industry Group, Transportation and Logistics Sector, starting on Aug 4. Investors and shareholders were advised to review THAI's latest disclosure and financial summary via the SET information system. On the first day of trading, THAI shares will not be subject to the usual ceiling and floor price limits, dynamic price bands or auto-pause mechanisms. These measures will be reintroduced on the following trading day, once the shares are actively traded. In addition, THAI shares will be included in the SET Index calculation starting the next business day after trading resumes.
