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CNBC
11 hours ago
- Business
- CNBC
Look for some consolidation before stocks retest all-time highs, chart analysts say
Fresh all-time highs for the stock market could be in the cards after May's strong performance. They won't come immediately, however. The S & P 500 surged 6.2% last month, marking its biggest monthly advance since November 2023. The Nasdaq Composite also roared nearly 10% higher in that time. The advances left the S & P 500 and Nasdaq 3.4% and 6.1% below records set in February and December, respectively. The tough part for investors now will be to remain patient, as chart analysts think the major averages need to absorb the sharp May gains before moving record levels. "While a rally over February peaks should happen this Summer, it's hard to make a technical call for an immediate breakout," Fundstrat technical strategist Mark Newton wrote. "Both SPX and QQQ likely will find resistance near February highs that allows for consolidation in mid-June ahead of a push back to new all-time highs." "Any near-term breakout above May highs should carry SPX up to between 6025-6150 while QQQ might approach 540. Thereafter, it's important to watch carefully for any possibility of trend reversal, which could start as early as next Monday," Newton added. The S & P 500 peaked at 5,968.61 in May, while the Invesco QQQ Trust — which tracks the Nasdaq-100 index — reached $526.48. The former ended Monday's session at 5,935.94, while the latter closed at $523.21. .SPX bar 2025-02-18 SPX since Feb. 18 The broad market benchmark reached an all-time high of 6,147.43 on Feb. 19. At one point in April, it was roughly 20% below that mark before staging a rebound. Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, noted that the S & P 500 is "setting the stage for the next upward move over the proverbial 'wall of worry.'" "The SPX and most sectors are just consolidating near their May highs, setting up for potential breakouts," he added. "While stocks are somewhat stretched in the short term, we remain optimistic and view modest dips and pullbacks, particularly back to well-established support levels, as buying opportunities."
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Favorite Casino Stock Traders Should Avoid in June
Wynn Resorts Inc (NASDAQ:WYNN) is trading 1.9% lower at $88.83 at last check, starting off June on a sour note. The shares are eyeing their fourth-straight loss, extending a pullback from their May 15 five-month highs, and testing support at the $90 level today. Plus, if past is precedent, WYNN could be due for even more losses. Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White of the 25 worst S&P 500 Index (SPX) stocks to own in June, going back a decade, and Wynn Resorts stock is in the top 10. WYNN has averaged a loss of 3.3% for the month, finishing lower 70% of the time over the last 10 years. Options traders are leaning bullish, leaving ample room for headwinds, should this upbeat sentiment begin to unwind. WYNN's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 4.18 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 75% of readings from the past year. Options are looking affordable as well, per the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 33%, which ranks in the 11th percentile of its annual range. This means options traders are pricing in low volatility expectations. WYNN has also tended to outperform these expectations, per its of 99 out of 100. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CNBC
a day ago
- Business
- CNBC
RBC raises S&P 500 target, but still sees a decline from current levels
The stock market outlook has improved, but only slightly, according to RBC Capital Markets. Head of U.S. equity strategy Lori Calvasina raised her year-end S & P 500 price target to 5,730 from 5,550 . That, however, still implies a decline of 3% from Friday's close. "Our new price target reflects our belief that the stock market is on a slightly better path than the one it was on in early April, when we cut our target for the second time this year, but not back to where it was in January or mid March," Calvasina wrote in a note to clients. Rising global trade tensions have left investors on edge in recent months. A swath of U.S. tariffs on imported goods dented investor confidence to start April. .SPX bar 2025-04-01 S & P 500 since April But a series of pauses and temporary reductions on those levies helped the market bounce back. Through Friday's close, the S & P 500 was only 3.8% below its all-time high set in February. The benchmark at one point was around 20% below that level. "The index has recouped most of that loss, which is telling us that the market never became convinced recession is at hand and believes a meaningful policy pivot has occurred on tariffs," Calvasina said. "Overall, both our valuation and EPS models bake in for the base case inflation in the upper 2% range, 3 Fed cuts starting in September, real GDP of 1.3% for the full year, margin contraction (more significant in the back half of the year than in 2Q), and some relief on interest expense driven in part by several cuts from the Fed starting in September," she added. "This is a better macro backdrop than the more severe stagflation scenario that we baked into our numbers back in early April, but is not as strong as the one we were baking in back in January." Calvasina also highlighted higher Treasury yields as a potential risk to the market going forward. She noted that a meaningful move above 5% in the benchmark 10-year note yield would pressure equities.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Stock market's haul in May comes as tariff turmoil and job angst lurk on the horizon
The stock market enters June in the vicinity of record territory, right around where the year started, but with households now more wary about tariffs, the economy and their jobs. The S&P 500 index SPX scored huge gains in May, which was its biggest monthly haul since November 2023. It closed out a whirlwind month less than 4% off its record close in February, while sailing through hazards that in more normal times could have sunk a fortune. 'You are going to panic,' Jamie Dimon tells regulators about what will happen when the bond market cracks My daughter's boyfriend, a guest in my home, offered to powerwash part of my house — then demanded money 'The situation is extreme': I'm 65 and leaving my estate to only one grandchild. Can the others contest my will? My ex-wife said she should have been compensated for working part time during our marriage. Do I owe her? 'He failed in his fiduciary duty': My brother liquidated our mother's 401(k) for her nursing home. He claimed the rest. The U.S. and U.K. kicked things off with a May 8 trade agreement that included 10% tariffs on many imports of U.K. goods. The U.S. and China next met in Geneva in mid-May, where on May 12 tit-for-tat tariffs were paused. Stocks roared higher. President Donald Trump on May 23 then lobbed a quick 50% tariff threat on goods from the European Union. Stocks came down a notch, investors responded by buying the dip, on a hunch those tariffs wouldn't emerge — and they too were quickly paused. Stocks rounded out the month on higher ground even through a federal court ruling on May 28 invalidated most of Trumps tariffs. That ruling in less than 24 hours was paused to allow the administration's appeal to play out. Finally, the month ended with Trump blasting China on May 30, claiming aspects of the partial tariff pause were being violated, while the White House also doubling tariffs on all steel imports to 50%. 'We've had quite a decent run over the last couple of weeks,' Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise's chief market strategist, told MarketWatch. Stock valuations may look 'a little stretched' relative to history, but he said investors no longer appear to fear the worst-case scenario on tariffs. What's priced into stocks is U.S. tariffs on imports will settle around 10% for much of the world, and 30% for China, he said. 'If that level is maintained — and we don't see it get worse than that — the markets have correctly rebounded, because companies can manage that environment,' he said. 'The impacts of inflation will be less draconian, and growth can remain positive.' 'But you just don't know if that's going to be the real rules of the road,' Saglimbene said. An inflation reading for April arrived on Friday that showed the annual cost of living moved closer to prepandemic levels. But that was cold comfort to Wall Street, given the highly uncertain tariff backdrop. 'It's also old news at this point,' said Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., on Friday. 'We know that for most of April and May, the average effective tariff rate didn't rise that much. By mid-to-late summer, that starts showing up.' 'We expect kind of a grind from here,' Gordon said of stocks. Yet the data also reflecting a pull-forward of 'consumer spending ahead of the tariff increases,' which 'will continue to dampen household spending in the coming months, especially as they face higher prices and a softening labor market,' said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, in emailed comments. Concerns about how companies might manage tariff costs will keep investors glued to Friday's monthly jobs report for May. Bostjancic said the sharply higher 4.9% personal savings rate in April was a cautious sign on spending, given that it was only 3.9% in November. 'Everyone is waiting to see how this settles out,' said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, in a phone call. He sees something akin to a 'yo-yo' economy playing out over a few months, Schutte said, given the zig-zag on tariffs and extreme front-loading of inventory by companies and consumers hoping to avoid the worst of them. A similar theme could also play out in stocks. 'We don't know a lot more than we knew two months ago,' Schutte said. Read next: Americans are 'revenge saving' after years of splurging: 'Savings are a great way to have some certainty' Tariff and economic clarity isn't expected until the Trump administration makes more concrete headway with several trade partners, hopefully over the summer. An area to watch for signs of appetite for U.S. assets, including stocks, will be the dollar DXY, which was down 8.3% on the year as of Friday against a basket of rival currencies, according to FactSet. 'To really have the 'buy America' trade come back, you would have to see the dollar stabilize,' Gordon at Schwab said, adding that if the dollar keeps sliding and bond yields continue moving higher, it could signal a scenario of more capital flight out of the U.S. Stocks have been suggesting any rough patches will smooth out. With first-quarter earnings nearly complete, FactSet's senior analyst John Butters pegged the S&P 500's next 12-month price-to-earnings ratio at 21.3, above the 18.4 average of the past 10 years. Schutte at Northwestern said investors should be cautious with stocks valuations back to levels widely viewed as lofty. On the other hand, small-caps RUT could finally get a lasting boost, he said, if tariffs end up being on the lower end. It also would help if the inflation picture clears up, so the Federal Reserve can resume lowering rates. Maulik Bhansali, a senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, said that despite fears about the appeal of U.S. assets abroad, the moment feels like a 'goldilocks' market in bonds. Any new issuance of investment-grade U.S. corporate bonds was being quickly snapped up by investors, he said. 'If you have yields in the 5-plus-precent area for most of the bond market, that's a pretty decent amount of cushion in there, to help feel you're getting well compensation for the risks out there,' he told MarketWatch. With an eye to the jobs report, Bhansali said the biggest risk might be a report that's too positive on the labor front, one that could add to inflation worries and narrow the odds on any Fed rate cuts this year — or even put a narrow chance of a price a hike on the map. 'The reason that would be so painful is because no one is positioned for it,' Bhansali said, adding that this year has been all about bond investors expecting a steepening yield curve, where longer-duration yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rise more than short-end BX:TMUBMUSD02Y rates. 'That would create a lot of volatility.' On deck, Wall Street will be hearing this week from a bunch of Federal Reserve officials, starting on Sunday, while monitoring other jobs data, manufacturing updates and the Fed's Beige Book, all before Friday's monthly employment report. The blue-chip Dow DJIA rose 3.9% in May, its best month since January, while the S&P 500 jumped 6.2% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP surged 9.6%, booking their best months since Nov. 2023, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Read: U.S.-China trade talks: Why rare-earth minerals are a sticking point in getting back on track After the TACO trade, here comes the 'Trump Collar.' Here's what that means for stocks. It's my dream to travel to Africa. My husband says it's not on his bucket list. Do I pay for him or go alone? What on earth is going on with the American consumer? My friend is getting divorced. Her husband kindly said, 'Take the house.' Is there a catch? My husband used my money to renovate his house. Will I now get half of his property in a divorce?
Business Insider
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Stock Market News Review: SPY, QQQ Dip as U.S.-China Tensions Flare, Consumer Sentiment Ends Losing Streak
Both the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) closed the Friday session well above their afternoon lows, although the benchmark indices were unable to finish in the green ahead of the weekend. Confident Investing Starts Here: This morning, President Trump accused China of violating the preliminary trade deal reached by the countries in Geneva. He didn't dive into the specifics, though he later said in an Oval Office press conference that he would like to speak with China President Xi Jinping about the situation. 'Hopefully we'll work that out,' said Trump. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer provided more details, saying that China was moving too slowly in removing tariff countermeasures and that it hadn't progressed in removing export restrictions on rare earth metals used in products like vehicles and semiconductors. The market sunk lower during the afternoon after Bloomberg reported that the U.S. is preparing sanctions on subsidiaries of Chinese technology companies included in the Entity List. Sources close to the matter added that the U.S. will likely enforce additional restrictions following the subsidiary sanctions in a sign of escalation between the two world powers. Aside from trade updates, the University of Michigan's May Index of Consumer Sentiment tallied in at 52.2, beating the expectation for 51.0 and ending four consecutive months of falling sentiment. The reading remained unchanged from April and was much higher than the preliminary May reading of 50.8 as a result of the U.S.-China preliminary trade agreement. On top of that, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index for April tallied in at 2.5%, meeting expectations and falling from 2.7% in March. The index is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and excludes food and energy prices included in the PCE index because of their volatility. The S&P 500 ended the day just barely lower with a 0.01% loss while the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.11%. At the same time, May turned out to be quite a memorable month, as both indexes registered their strongest monthly performance since November 2023.
