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Miami Herald
08-05-2025
- Sport
- Miami Herald
Looking for a Kentucky Derby long shot? Here are your best bets to win big money
Journalism will be tough to beat. Sandman has legitimate star power. Sovereignty could very well be wearing the roses by the end of the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Saturday night. But recent history indicates a major long shot might be the horse getting all of the attention after the 151st edition of the race is run at Churchill Downs in Louisville, and — even if one of those aforementioned favorites does cross the finish line first — there's likely plenty of money to be made elsewhere. To win big without betting big on Derby Day, you'll need to either hit on one of those overlooked contenders that finds his way into first — like Mystik Dan did last year at 18-1 odds — or pick out the right combination of horses that finish in the money. With such a large field size Saturday, there's plenty of betting money to be spread around, and that means there will be plenty to win if you get your handicapping right. As you finalize your picks for the big race, here are a few long-shot bets to consider. Picking a long shot to win Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism is the deserving favorite Saturday, but the favorite hasn't won the Kentucky Derby since eventual Triple Crown winner Justify did it seven years ago. Mystik Dan was 18-1 last year. Mage was 15-1 the year before that. Other recent winners include Rich Strike at 81-1 odds three years ago and Country House at 65-1 in 2019. Point being, a major upset hasn't been the most unexpected result in recent years. Who's most likely to do it in this field? Be sure to keep an eye on the Kentucky Derby live odds leading up to post time Saturday, but — as of noon Friday — there were a few intriguing win options at 15-1 or longer. Going by that '15-1 or longer' standard of a long shot, Final Gambit is one to consider. The gray colt was actually 30-1 on the morning line but was bet down to 15-1 by Friday afternoon. His color, popular for casual bettors, surely had something to do with that, but there's some real talent here, too. Final Gambit turned in a career performance in winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park for star trainer Brad Cox last time out, going from last in the 12-horse field in the final turn to a clear winner at the finish line. He earned only a 90 Beyer Speed Figure for that run — not terrific, by the standards of the Derby field — but there's some intrigue here. He's run his last three races on the synthetic surface at Turfway and his only start before that came over the Churchill Downs turf course. So, he's never run on dirt. That's not a disqualifier. Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby at 21-1 odds in his first start on dirt in 2011, and long-shot Rich Strike also raced three times on the synthetic surface at Turfway leading up to his Derby upset three years ago. While the early betting has taken some value away from Final Gambit, he's still worth consideration as a win bet. That move in the Jeff Ruby Steaks was fantastic, and if he can replicate it Saturday — running into what should be a hot pace that sets up well for closers — he could be there in the end, especially if he can handle the dirt kickback he'll be seeing for the first time in his young career. While he's not my favorite contender in the field, Blue Grass Stakes winner Burnham Square is another talented closer with intriguing odds. Though 12-1 on the morning line, he was sitting at 16-1 on Friday afternoon despite Rodriguez and Grande being scratched. That's somewhat of a surprise for a horse that has been training arguably as well as anyone over the Louisville dirt and has local favorite Brian Hernandez Jr. — last year's Derby winner and one of Churchill's all-time leading jockeys — aboard Saturday. And be sure to keep an eye on Baeza as those live odds are updated Saturday. The Santa Anita Derby runner-up drew into the race Thursday with the scratch of Rodriguez and — though lightly raced — he has the look of a potential Kentucky Derby winner. Around the time Baeza got into the field, his odds were hovering around the 50-1 range, but that's because it was unclear if he'd even be eligible for the race. Those odds have shortened quickly since his inclusion and had dropped into the 20-1 range by Friday afternoon. Expect Baeza's odds to keep getting shorter, but if they level out somewhere around his 12-1 number on the morning line, he'll be a great value as a win bet. And speaking of great value, Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty was sitting at 9-1 in the live odds Friday afternoon. That's an incredibly enticing number, even if it doesn't fit our definition of a Derby 'long shot.' Betting tips for Derby trifecta Even if Journalism — or one of the other favorites — wins the Kentucky Derby, the exotic payoffs could still be lucrative. (And if a relative long shot comes in first, those winnings will be huge.) Some recent examples: ▪ When Authentic won the 2020 Derby at 8-1 odds, with 3-5 favorite Tiz the Law coming in second, a $1 trifecta ticket still paid more than $1,300 because the third-place finisher was 46-1 shot Mr. Big News. ▪ When Always Dreaming won the 2017 Derby as the 9-2 favorite, the second- and third-place finishers were Lookin At Lee (33-1) and Battle of Midway (40-1). A $1 trifecta wager paid more than $8,000 that year. ▪ And when Mage was the upset winner at 15-1 two years ago, two of the popular betting choices — Two Phil's (9-1) and race favorite Angel of Empire (4-1) — finished second and third, leading to a $1 trifecta payout of $982. In seven of the last eight Derbys, a $1 trifecta bet has paid at least $982, and at least one horse with 15-1 odds or longer has finished in the top three in each of the past six Derbys. It's important to note that win pools are different from the exacta, trifecta and superfecta pools, so a horse's listed odds won't correspond exactly to his value in the exotic bets. But those odds are usually a pretty good indicator of who's a long shot and who isn't when it comes to trifectas. Some candidates — in addition to Final Gambit and Baeza — to spice up those wagers this year: ▪ Arkansas Derby runner-up Publisher looks like a colt with a real chance to finish in the money, given his penchant for coming from the back of the pack and ability to be picking off tired horses in the stretch. He's never won a race — so it would be a pretty big shock if he wins his first one Saturday — but it won't be surprising at all to see him going hard at the end. ▪ Chunk of Gold is an interesting colt and will be one of the longest shots on the board. He lost by nearly 10 lengths to Magnitude back in February, but that horse — off the Derby trail with an injury — turned in one of the best performances of the year that day. Chunk of Gold finished second in the Louisiana Derby after that and has been training splendidly at Turfway Park ever since. ▪ East Avenue has been a perplexing horse over his past four races, with two great performances at Keeneland bookending two absolute duds elsewhere. Of those long shots likely to vie for the early lead Saturday, he seems the best bet to hang around at the end. If he can improve off his gritty run in the Blue Grass Stakes, he could make the trifecta. Good Derby horses if it rains? The weather forecast for Louisville on Saturday is not pretty, with rain almost certain to hit at some point and heavy downpours possible throughout the day. So, what if it rains? While several in this field have run on 'off' tracks before, there's not a whole lot of meaningful history there for anyone in this race. None of the major Kentucky Derby prep races were run in particularly adverse conditions this year. The only horse here that has run on a track labeled as 'sloppy' in 2025 is long-shot Neoequos, who was the wire-to-wire winner of a 6-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park over the slop back in January. Not exactly a great indicator of anything for Saturday. The three top favorites — Journalism, Sandman and Sovereignty — have 19 career races among them, and each of those was run over a fast surface. American Promise did get his first career win over a 'muddy' track at Oaklawn Park on Dec. 29, earning a 95 Beyer — tied for his fastest figure in nine starts — in that race at 1 1/16 miles. Japanese star Luxor Cafe technically has three victories over off tracks this year, but all three of those surfaces were labeled as 'good.' One to watch if it pours is Coal Battle, the feel-good-story colt who beat Sandman, Publisher and Tiztastic in the Rebel Stakes before a third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby last time out. Coal Battle is 2-for-2 on wet tracks — both short races in Louisiana at age 2 — and while neither of those starts can compare to the Kentucky Derby, they at least show he's comfortable in the rain. The bigger indicator for possible success in the slop with Coal Battle is the way he runs. This is a fun colt to watch. He has shown some great acceleration in his races and has displayed a stop-and-start ability in morning workouts that lends itself to surefootedness over wet tracks. There are definitely concerns that Coal Battle won't be able to handle the 1¼-mile distance Saturday, but when 3-year-olds get met with this new challenge plus adverse weather conditions for the first time, a lot of preconceived notions can go out the window, and the ones who are comfortable running over the mud can find a way to skip past 'better' horses in the field. That could very well happen Saturday, and Coal Battle is going to be one of the longest shots on the board. Don't ignore him if its a rainy day in Louisville.
Miami Herald
05-05-2025
- Sport
- Miami Herald
With Kentucky Derby in the books, could there be a Triple Crown bid?
May 5 (UPI) -- With an exciting Kentucky Derby in the books, attention shifts the second jewel of the U.S. Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course, and the possibility of a series sweep. No one was making any promises Sunday morning, but it sounded likely that, all being equal, Derby winner Sovereignty and runner-up Journalism will meet again in the Preakness. Third-place Derby horse Baeza is headed back to California, and the other beaten contenders from Louisville were non-committal at best. Trainer Bill Mott, soaking in the realization of his Derby dreams outside Sovereignty's barn, said the Godolphin colt sustained "a small scrape -- about 4 inches" on his right front leg during the Derby. With the caveat that anything amiss with a horse's legs is cause for concern, he said the scrape was minor and surely didn't affect Sovereignty's appetite. "When I got back to the barn last night after the race, he'd already eaten up," Mott said. "His tub was empty. Probably did it in 20 minutes. That's unusual for a horse that had to run a race as hard as he did." While that's a good sign for a Preakness bid, Mott said that decision has yet to be made. "We've got to consider all options with him. We certainly respect the Triple Crown and what it means, but we're not dead set on it. We'll have to let the horse tell us how he's doing in the next little while and then we'll go from there," the veteran trainer said. Ultimately, the creator and master of Godolphin, Dubai ruler Sheik Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, will make the final call about plans for his long-sought after first Kentucky Derby winner. Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism, who yielded grudgingly to Sovereignty to finish second by 1 1/2 lengths Saturday, was "in good order this morning and everything going forward is now in play," trainer Michael McCarthy said Sunday. Presumably, that could include the Preakness, although McCarthy did not say so specifically. Baeza, the Santa Anita Derby runner-up who got into the Run for the Roses only thanks to a Thursday scratch, rallied along with Sovereignty and Journalism to finish third at Churchill Downs. Despite the good effort, trainer John Shirreffs nixed a swing at the Preakness. "Too much for a West Coast horse to work with," Shirreffs said Sunday. "We'll go back west, then look at the Belmont." Jimmy Barnes, assistant to trainer Bob Baffert, said last year's 2-year-old champion, Citizen Bull, also is headed back West after leading through the first 6 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby before throwing in the towel to finish 15th. He indicated that Rodriguez, who was scratched from the Derby with a sore foot, will point to the Preakness. The Belmont Stakes, third race in the Triple Crown series, will be run at Saratoga again this year to accommodate massive construction work at Belmont Park. The race also is trimmed back to 1 1/4 miles from its usual 1 1/2 miles to accommodate the track layout at the upstate New York oval. Trainer Mark Casse said Sandman, seventh in Louisville, also might wait for the Belmont for his next start. Others took a wait-and-see approach or are already looking for easier pickings. Any of the Derby runners reporting to Pimlio will find no shortage of "new shooters" waiting to join the Triple Crown fray. Some candidates have been in the wings for a while. Others emerged during the weekend. Saturday's $600,000 Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs was jam-packed with 3-year-olds who didn't quite measure up to Derby standards. None of them could measure up, either, to Macho Music, a Maclean's Music colt whose last race was against fellow Florida-breds at Tampa Bay Downs. Under Javier Castellano, Macho Music led all the way to a 3 1/4-length victory. A pair of Baffert trainees, Madaket Road and Gaming, both one-time Derby hopefuls, chased him home second and third. Does it matter? Well, a year ago, Seize the Grey won the Pat Day Mile and turned around two weeks later to capture the Preakness, ending Mystik Dan's hopes of a Triple Crown sweep. Saturday's third race at Churchill downs, "just" a 1 1/16-mile allowance race, has a history of boosting 3-year-olds not quite Derby-ready. Last year, for example, Mindframe won by 7 1/2 lengths in his second career start, and then finished second in both the Belmont Stakes and the Grade I Haskell at Monmouth Park. This time around, Goal Oriented, another Baffert charge making just his second start, worked to the lead on the first turn and never gave it up, winning by 1 length in 1:42.83. The Not This Time colt now is an easy 2-for-2. And by the way, Mindframe won an ultra-tough running of the Grade I Churchill Downs Stakes later on Saturday's program. Pay Billy earned a spot in the Preakness with a victory in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park last month. Steve Asmussen has Clever Again, a 4-lengths winner over Gaming in the $200,000 Hot Springs Stakes at Oaklawn Park. River Thames, second to Sovereignty in the Grade II Fountain of Youth, and Gosger, winner of the Grade II Lexington at Keeneland, both are in line to take "new shooter" spots in the Pimlico gate. Copyright 2025 UPI News Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Yahoo
05-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Kentucky Derby 2025 odds and picks: Betting lines, favorites, expert prediction, post positions
The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby is only hours away with a 6:57 p.m. ET post time at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. It is the beginning of the most important stretch of the horse racing season — the Triple Crown — and is the biggest single day in the sport. We will have live coverage of the Kentucky Derby all day. Journalism is the 3-1 favorite on the morning line, but those odds will change in the lead-up to the race. Yahoo Sports spoke with Lane Gold, host of Kentucky's Winners Circle, to preview the favorites and long shots in the race, as well as get a few best bets. No. 8 Journalism (3-1): "He's won four races in a row, and his only defeat was his first race. Won the two big prep races in California, including winning the Santa Anita Derby on April 5. The No. 8 starting position isn't bad, not the best or worst. The Derby comes down to luck and a good rider. He's going to need a little bit of luck because he's going to break relatively quick, but he's going to be sitting behind the first flight. His jockey [Umberto Rispoli] is an underrated jockey, a rising star in California — this is probably his best shot to win the Derby. Trainer Mike McCarthy used to work for D. Wayne Lukas. This is a Bob Baffert kind of road here, winning the prep races in California. There is a lot to like about Journalism. It's likely that his odds go up because there are 20 horses, and Baffert is back in the Derby. I suspect Journalism will end up at 4-1 or 5-1. He's the favorite, but won't be a huge favorite." No. 18 Sovereignty (5-1): "He's outside, which is a good thing, probably running the middle pack early on, maybe 7th to 10th. He's a horse that has a better record than Sandman (two wins and two second places in five starts). His worst effort was his debut, when he was fourth, so he's been pretty consistent. Gets a good rider in Junior Alvarado and trainer Bill Mott, who is one of the best trainers to technically never win it outright, but this is one of his best chances to do just that. It used to be you needed three races in your sophomore year to win, but now horses are treated more gingerly. Sovereignty also won a race at Churchill Downs last October. He's 5-1 in the morning line, I suspect that will go up. Sometimes the public will ignore these horses, so I think he'll be 7-1, 8-1 or more." No. 17 Sandman (6-1): "Similar logic applies here, as sometimes being outside is a good thing because there are fewer horses who will be out early on. Sandman isn't a consistent horse in terms of winning (three of eight). Any of the numbers won't blow your doors off with him, but he is a horse who will come from behind. He's going to be sitting 12th, 13th, 14th, somewhere in there, and there should be a lot of speed up front that will help a horse like this. If he's able to weave his way through traffic, he will certainly be a menace in the final quarter mile. He does have a great ride in Jose Ortiz, and his trainer, Mark Casse, is a good trainer in the United States and one of the best in Canada. The owners paid $1.2 million for this horse at a public auction last March, so they saw something in him. He's going to have to have some things go his way." No. 9 Burnham Square (12-1): "He's won three of six, including the Blue Grass Stakes, where he won at the very last moment despite a rough start, which tells me that he can deal with adversity — and the Derby is full of that. There is a home-track advantage since he trains at Churchill Downs, and there's a lot of speed in the Derby. He's probably going to 12th or so, early, but he's coming back to Kentucky where he's based. Not a big-name trainer." No. 1 Citizen Bull (20-1): "Do I think he really can win? Maybe, but this is a horse who will run fast early. He has no choice, since he's on the rail. He'll go to the front and has run well, outside of his last race. He's won four of six, so his record on paper is pretty good and you're getting Baffert at 20-1. Stranger things have happened with Baffert. War Emblem got the lead in the Derby and never looked back. The price will be right. He's going to be out early, and you know Baffert wants to win this race really badly." "If I'm betting the Derby now, I would put Journalism on top of a few horses in an exacta or trifecta. I think Citizen Bull is all or nothing, either he's at front or will get crushed. We've seen horses come from the back, like Publisher, who could finish in the top three. The reason I'm staying with the favorite on top is that the Baffert path, which he took, is very likable and he's one of the hottest horses in the race. I think if he gets a clean trip he could win, but I could see a 30-1 or 40-1 horse get second. Pick some of your bombers in second or third and get a nice payoff."
Yahoo
05-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Kentucky Derby 2025 odds and picks: Betting lines, favorites, expert prediction, post positions
The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby is only hours away with a 6:57 p.m. ET post time at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. It is the beginning of the most important stretch of the horse racing season — the Triple Crown — and is the biggest single day in the sport. We will have live coverage of the Kentucky Derby all day. Journalism is the 3-1 favorite on the morning line, but those odds will change in the lead-up to the race. Yahoo Sports spoke with Lane Gold, host of Kentucky's Winners Circle, to preview the favorites and long shots in the race, as well as get a few best bets. No. 8 Journalism (3-1): "He's won four races in a row, and his only defeat was his first race. Won the two big prep races in California, including winning the Santa Anita Derby on April 5. The No. 8 starting position isn't bad, not the best or worst. The Derby comes down to luck and a good rider. He's going to need a little bit of luck because he's going to break relatively quick, but he's going to be sitting behind the first flight. His jockey [Umberto Rispoli] is an underrated jockey, a rising star in California — this is probably his best shot to win the Derby. Trainer Mike McCarthy used to work for D. Wayne Lukas. This is a Bob Baffert kind of road here, winning the prep races in California. There is a lot to like about Journalism. It's likely that his odds go up because there are 20 horses, and Baffert is back in the Derby. I suspect Journalism will end up at 4-1 or 5-1. He's the favorite, but won't be a huge favorite." No. 18 Sovereignty (5-1): "He's outside, which is a good thing, probably running the middle pack early on, maybe 7th to 10th. He's a horse that has a better record than Sandman (two wins and two second places in five starts). His worst effort was his debut, when he was fourth, so he's been pretty consistent. Gets a good rider in Junior Alvarado and trainer Bill Mott, who is one of the best trainers to technically never win it outright, but this is one of his best chances to do just that. It used to be you needed three races in your sophomore year to win, but now horses are treated more gingerly. Sovereignty also won a race at Churchill Downs last October. He's 5-1 in the morning line, I suspect that will go up. Sometimes the public will ignore these horses, so I think he'll be 7-1, 8-1 or more." No. 17 Sandman (6-1): "Similar logic applies here, as sometimes being outside is a good thing because there are fewer horses who will be out early on. Sandman isn't a consistent horse in terms of winning (three of eight). Any of the numbers won't blow your doors off with him, but he is a horse who will come from behind. He's going to be sitting 12th, 13th, 14th, somewhere in there, and there should be a lot of speed up front that will help a horse like this. If he's able to weave his way through traffic, he will certainly be a menace in the final quarter mile. He does have a great ride in Jose Ortiz, and his trainer, Mark Casse, is a good trainer in the United States and one of the best in Canada. The owners paid $1.2 million for this horse at a public auction last March, so they saw something in him. He's going to have to have some things go his way." No. 9 Burnham Square (12-1): "He's won three of six, including the Blue Grass Stakes, where he won at the very last moment despite a rough start, which tells me that he can deal with adversity — and the Derby is full of that. There is a home-track advantage since he trains at Churchill Downs, and there's a lot of speed in the Derby. He's probably going to 12th or so, early, but he's coming back to Kentucky where he's based. Not a big-name trainer." No. 1 Citizen Bull (20-1): "Do I think he really can win? Maybe, but this is a horse who will run fast early. He has no choice, since he's on the rail. He'll go to the front and has run well, outside of his last race. He's won four of six, so his record on paper is pretty good and you're getting Baffert at 20-1. Stranger things have happened with Baffert. War Emblem got the lead in the Derby and never looked back. The price will be right. He's going to be out early, and you know Baffert wants to win this race really badly." "If I'm betting the Derby now, I would put Journalism on top of a few horses in an exacta or trifecta. I think Citizen Bull is all or nothing, either he's at front or will get crushed. We've seen horses come from the back, like Publisher, who could finish in the top three. The reason I'm staying with the favorite on top is that the Baffert path, which he took, is very likable and he's one of the hottest horses in the race. I think if he gets a clean trip he could win, but I could see a 30-1 or 40-1 horse get second. Pick some of your bombers in second or third and get a nice payoff."
South Wales Argus
04-05-2025
- Sport
- South Wales Argus
Sovereignty steals the show in Kentucky Derby
A crowd of over 147,000 were in attendance for the 151st renewal of the 'The Run For The Roses', with 19 horses going to post on a sloppy track following heavy rain at the Louisville circuit. Michael McCarthy's Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism was a hot favourite and looked likely to oblige after making a sweeping move rounding the home turn to challenge for the lead. However, Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty was in his slipstream under Venezuelan rider Junior Alvarado and finished off the 10-furlong contest the stronger to claim a clear-cut victory. Hall of Fame trainer Mott was winning North America's most famous race for a second time, after his Country House was promoted to the number one spot in 2019 following the disqualification of first past the post Maximum Security. Of his latest victor, Mott told NBC Sports: 'I saw him gearing up when he left the half-mile pole – he started to pick up his momentum. I lost him a little bit, but he made up a lot of ground in a hurry. 'He's done well, he's a great horse and he comes from a great organisation. I can't say enough about the horse and the organisation that started him out and did everything to make this happen. 'It's great and it'll take a while to sink in.' On whether Sovereignty will now compete in the second leg of the American Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes, the trainer added: 'I think we've got to talk about it. The pressure is on now to go. Had he not won you wouldn't feel obligated to do it, but we'll talk with the team and I think we'll make a joint decision and try to do the right thing.' Sovereignty's triumph rounded off a fantastic Saturday for Godolphin following the earlier success of Charlie Appleby's Ruling Court in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Michael Banahan, director of bloodstock for Godolphin USA, said: 'It's amazing. The founder of Godolphin, Sheikh Mohammed, has given all these great resources to have a wonderful stallion roster and a great broodmare band and be able to have horses here that can compete on the big stage. 'It is a race that we always wanted to try and win. Godolphin like to compete in the best races round the world, be it the Epsom Derby, the Melbourne Cup, the Dubai World Cup and eventually the Kentucky Derby. 'I'm so grateful to be up here looking at the Twin Spires from this side – it's a great feeling.' Alvarado added: 'It means the world to me, my family is here. I thought I had a great chance and I was so confident the whole way. 'If I had to pick someone to win the Kentucky Derby with it would be Mr Mott. We've been a team for a while and it's more than a dream come true to get it done with him and the Godolphin people too, who have been very helpful throughout my career.'
