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Business Wire
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Wire
Cotality: Slower Home Price Growth Could Open Doors for More Buyers
IRVINE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Cotality™, a leader in property information, analytics, and data-enabled solutions, released its Home Price Index™ for June 2025 today. June saw home price growth remain below 2%, indicating a continued market slowdown. 'Slowing price growth and increased for-sale inventories are gradually improving affordability, which has recently been at its lowest levels in more than 30 years. These changes are creating new opportunities for potential homebuyers." -Dr. Selma Hepp Share Housing markets in the Sun Belt have seen particularly noticeable declines, while the Midwest and the Northeast are seeing seasonal price gains that align with pre-pandemic trends. The Northeast has continued recording strong price growth as compared to the rest of the country. Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island topped the charts this month, posting 7.8%, 7.2%, and 6.6% growth, respectively. While most of the areas are experiencing a slowdown in annual appreciation, home price appreciation in New Jersey has accelerated in recent months. Similarly, Hawaii and Kansas are appreciating at a faster pace than in April of this year, and a few other states, including North Dakota, Indiana, and Maine, are seeing a similar trend. In addition to the Northeast, the Midwest continues to rank high with robust price growth as the region boasts the highest affordability nationwide. 'Markets demonstrating strong fundamentals — such as those in West Virginia — where affordability remains attractive and domestic in-migration continues, are likely to see continued home price growth,' explained Cotality Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp. 'Slowing price growth and increased for-sale inventories are gradually improving affordability, which has recently been at its lowest levels in more than 30 years. These changes are creating new opportunities for potential homebuyers who were previously unable to enter the market due to high prices. But the extent to which buyers can enter the market is influenced by the stability of the labor market and the absence of major layoffs.' Even though the housing market is seeing a slowdown in price increases, prices are still rising. This month's median sales price for a single-family home is $403,000. Still, price growth is now under the rate of inflation, which means that relative prices are inching closer to affordability and have laid the foundation for a buyers' market going forward. 'With mortgage rates remaining elevated and concerns about a slowing U.S. economy, subdued demand and downward pressure on home prices is expected to persist, particularly in regions where prices have already decelerated or where recent appreciation has significantly limited local affordability. Additionally, greater price pressures are evident in markets with notable inventory increases, such as the Washington D.C. metro area and Denver, Colorado.' The next Cotality Home Price Index will be released on September 2, featuring data for July 2025. For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the Cotality Insights blog: Methodology The Cotality HPI ™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the Cotality HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The Cotality HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. Cotality HPI Forecasts ™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, Cotality HPI Forecasts project Cotality HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the Cotality HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index. About Market Risk Indicators Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. Cotality data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction. About the Market Condition Indicators As part of the Cotality HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%. The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from Cotality. Any Cotality data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from Cotality, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the Cotality logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Charity Head at newsmedia@ Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of Cotality. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources. About Cotality Cotality accelerates data, insights, and workflows across the property ecosystem to enable industry professionals to surpass their ambitions and impact society. With billions of real-time data signals across the life cycle of a property, we unearth hidden risks and transformative opportunities for agents, lenders, carriers, and innovators. Get to know us at
Yahoo
13-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Home Values Are Surging in These 10 Cities as Demand Heats Up
While home value growth has slowed nationally, there are pockets in the Midwest and Northeast that continue to see astonishing double-digit growth—and they are not necessarily where you might expect. 'The Northeast and the Midwest are home to some of the hottest markets in the country,' says Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality. Decatur, IL, leads the nation with annual home sales price growth of 12.4%, according to property data firm Cotality's latest home price index insights report, which analyzed median sales prices for May. And West Virginia sees no fewer than three markets with double-digit price growth on the top 10 list. Driving superior growth in the top markets are affordability, continued demand, and scarcity of inventory. 'The variation in home price growth is largely driven by the availability of homes for sale,' says the report. Markets that saw continued demand without corresponding rebounds in inventory saw the highest surge in prices. 'Affordable markets across the country continue to garner attention from home shoppers,' affirms Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at 'Increased demand has driven up competition and pushed home prices higher in these markets while other well-supplied, higher-priced markets have seen home prices level off or even fall. Home supply in the Midwest and Northeast continues to struggle to keep up with buyer demand, which has kept upward pressure on home prices.' 'What we're seeing is the flight to affordability and how growing demand in previously overlooked or stagnant markets is now pushing pricing upward,' of Corcoran, who was the first female broker to be cast on Bravo's 'Million Dollar Listing New York,' tells At the state level, Illinois had the highest annual home price growth, up 6.4% year over year. It's followed by Rhode Island, New Jersey, Wyoming, and Connecticut, which all continue to record more than triple the national rate of price growth. Midwest markets such as Indianapolis, Kansas City, MO, and Knoxville, TN, and markets surrounding the New York metro, continue to outpace their pre-pandemic trends in May. The Midwest is due to affordability, and the New York City outer-suburbs are due to their proximity to the urban center. Still, these hot markets don't signal an overall hotness in prices. Nationwide, year-over-year price growth dipped to 1.8% in May 2025, down from 5% price growth last May and the slowest since winter 2012. High interest rates and home prices are pulling sales trajectories downward. 'While the national home price index continues to move up, the rate at which it's climbing has slowed considerably,' says Hepp. These are the markets with the most price growth year over year: Price growth: 12.4% Median list price: $149,900 Situated around Lake Decatur and the Sangamon River, the community offers plenty of opportunities for water sports such as fishing, boating, and waterskiing. It also boasts a 1,300-acre park for hiking, biking, and running. Price growth: 12% Median list price: $150,000 Just 45 minutes away from Pittsburgh, this market is popular with commuters looking for a more rural vibe and more bang for their buck, as that bigger city has a much larger median price tag of $250,000. Price growth: 11.9% Median list price: $327,000 Just a 2.5-hour commute to Minneapolis, the small port city on Lake Superior is known for its summer destination sandbar Park Point, where billionaire Kathy Cargill made headlines last year after buying up multiple properties on the longest freshwater sandbar for well over their value, then reportedly changing her mind about her plans for the area after significant backlash. Price growth: 10.6% Median list price: $369,900 Just an hour from Albany and huddled on the Hudson River, Glens Falls has a historic and walkable downtown area. Don't confuse it with Glen Falls, in the Catskills. 'It makes sense that a small, post-industrial city like Glens Falls that has robust older housing stock, a quaint downtown, and proximity to amazing destinations like Lake George and Saratoga Springs is seeing price growth right now,' says Jordan. Price growth: 10.6% Median list price: $165,000 Just an hour away from Indianapolis, this more affordable city is home to Ball State University. According to its community page, Muncie 'has become THE HOT real estate market in Indiana.' Price growth: 10.5% Median home price: $170,000 Nestled along the Ohio and Little Kanawha rivers, Parkersburg has a charming downtown area with plenty of shops, live events, craft breweries, and restaurants. Price growth: 10.4% Median home price: $187,450 Charleston is the state's capital and is known for a vibrant arts scene, museums, and its Capitol Market, which hosts dozens of food vendors in a former freight station. Price growth: 10.2% Median home price: $327,000 Located on the Long Island Sound and boasting its own beach at Seaside Park, Bridgeport is on the Amtrak line and has remained relatively affordable despite being a short commute to the famously expensive New York City metro suburbs of Greenwich and Stamford. Price growth: 10.2% Median home price: $469,000 Located at the confluence of the Clearwater and Snake rivers, Lewiston is named for famous explorers Lewis and Clark. Its proximity to the water offers plenty of opportunity for water sports and its dry, temperate climate makes it popular with outdoor enthusiasts. Price growth: 10.1% Median home price: $360,000 The other Lewiston on the list is the second most populous city in Maine, and is north of the most populous city, Portland, in the Maine Lakes and Mountains region. Middle-Class Americans Can Still Afford a Home in Kentucky Without Looking Too Hard Louisville's Housing Market Shines: Why It Ranks in the Top 10 for Affordable Homes Under $500K 10 Most Affordable States Where Solo Buyers Can Afford a Home—and Live Comfortably
New York Post
10-07-2025
- Business
- New York Post
Home values are surging in these 10 cities as demand heats up
While home value growth has slowed nationally, there are pockets in the Midwest and Northeast that continue to see astonishing double-digit growth—and they are not necessarily where you might expect. 'The Northeast and the Midwest are home to some of the hottest markets in the country,' says Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality. Decatur, IL, leads the nation with annual home sales price growth of 12.4%, according to property data firm Cotality's latest home price index insights report, which analyzed median sales prices for May. And West Virginia sees no fewer than three markets with double-digit price growth on the top 10 list. What's driving the numbers? 12 'The Northeast and the Midwest are home to some of the hottest markets in the country,' says Selma Hepp. Lenspiration – Driving superior growth in the top markets are affordability, continued demand, and scarcity of inventory. 'The variation in home price growth is largely driven by the availability of homes for sale,' says the report. Markets that saw continued demand without corresponding rebounds in inventory saw the highest surge in prices. 'Affordable markets across the country continue to garner attention from home shoppers,' affirms Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at 'Increased demand has driven up competition and pushed home prices higher in these markets while other well-supplied, higher-priced markets have seen home prices level off or even fall. Home supply in the Midwest and Northeast continues to struggle to keep up with buyer demand, which has kept upward pressure on home prices.' 'What we're seeing is the flight to affordability and how growing demand in previously overlooked or stagnant markets is now pushing pricing upward,' Kirsten Jordan of Corcoran, who was the first female broker to be cast on Bravo's 'Million Dollar Listing New York,' tells Where is the growth? 12 Driving superior growth in the top markets are affordability, continued demand, and scarcity of inventory. Iriana Shiyan – At the state level, Illinois had the highest annual home price growth, up 6.4% year over year. It's followed by Rhode Island, New Jersey, Wyoming, and Connecticut, which all continue to record more than triple the national rate of price growth. Midwest markets such as Indianapolis, Kansas City, MO, and Knoxville, TN, and markets surrounding the New York metro, continue to outpace their pre-pandemic trends in May. The Midwest is due to affordability, and the New York City outer-suburbs are due to their proximity to the urban center. Still, these hot markets don't signal an overall hotness in prices. Nationwide, year-over-year price growth dipped to 1.8% in May 2025, down from 5% price growth last May and the slowest since winter 2012. High interest rates and home prices are pulling sales trajectories downward. 'While the national home price index continues to move up, the rate at which it's climbing has slowed considerably,' says Hepp. These are the markets with the most price growth year over year: 12 Decatur, IL has a price growth of 12.4%. Price growth: 12.4% Median list price: $149,900 Situated around Lake Decatur and the Sangamon River, the community offers plenty of opportunities for water sports such as fishing, boating, and waterskiing. It also boasts a 1,300-acre park for hiking, biking, and running. 12 Weirton, WV has a price growth of 12%. Karlsson Photo – Price growth: 12% Median list price: $150,000 Just 45 minutes away from Pittsburgh, this market is popular with commuters looking for a more rural vibe and more bang for their buck, as that bigger city has a much larger median price tag of $250,000. 12 Duluth, MN has a price growth of 11.9%. Benjamin – Price growth: 11.9% Median list price: $327,000 Just a 2.5-hour commute to Minneapolis, the small port city on Lake Superior is known for its summer destination sandbar Park Point, where billionaire Kathy Cargill made headlines last year after buying up multiple properties on the longest freshwater sandbar for well over their value, then reportedly changing her mind about her plans for the area after significant backlash. 12 Glens Falls, NY has a price growth of 10.6%. jonbilous – Price growth: 10.6% Median list price: $369,900 Just an hour from Albany and huddled on the Hudson River, Glens Falls has a historic and walkable downtown area. Don't confuse it with Glen Falls, in the Catskills. 'It makes sense that a small, post-industrial city like Glens Falls that has robust older housing stock, a quaint downtown, and proximity to amazing destinations like Lake George and Saratoga Springs is seeing price growth right now,' says Jordan. 12 Muncie, IN has a price growth of 10.6%. Price growth: 10.6% Median list price: $165,000 Just an hour away from Indianapolis, this more affordable city is home to Ball State University. According to its community page, Muncie 'has become THE HOT real estate market in Indiana.' 12 Parkersburg, WV has a price growth of 10.5%. R Scott James – Price growth: 10.5% Median home price: $170,000 Nestled along the Ohio and Little Kanawha rivers, Parkersburg has a charming downtown area with plenty of shops, live events, craft breweries, and restaurants. 12 Charleston, WV has a price growth of 10.4%. Karlsson Photo – Price growth: 10.4% Median home price: $187,450 Charleston is the state's capital and is known for a vibrant arts scene, museums, and its Capitol Market, which hosts dozens of food vendors in a former freight station. 12 Bridgeport, CT has a price growth of 10.2%. alexandros33 – Price growth: 10.2% Median home price: $327,000 Located on the Long Island Sound and boasting its own beach at Seaside Park, Bridgeport is on the Amtrak line and has remained relatively affordable despite being a short commute to the famously expensive New York City metro suburbs of Greenwich and Stamford. 12 Lewiston, ID has a price growth of 10.2%. Hanjo Hellmann – Price growth: 10.2% Median home price: $469,000 Located at the confluence of the Clearwater and Snake rivers, Lewiston is named for famous explorers Lewis and Clark. Its proximity to the water offers plenty of opportunity for water sports and its dry, temperate climate makes it popular with outdoor enthusiasts. 12 Lewiston, ME has a price growth of 10.1%. Bob Orsillo – Price growth: 10.1% Median home price: $360,000 The other Lewiston on the list is the second most populous city in Maine, and is north of the most populous city, Portland, in the Maine Lakes and Mountains region.
CNET
16-06-2025
- Business
- CNET
Mortgage Rate Predictions for Week of June 16-22: Will a Fed Meeting Help Rates Fall?
As the Federal Reserve likely holds interest rates steady, mortgage rates are expected to stay in a narrow range. Tharon Green/CNET With each passing day, it seems like average 30-year mortgage rates could remain stuck near 6.8% for the rest of the year. Yet conflicting economic forces could push mortgage rates up or down in the coming months. Housing market experts say the same thing: The direction of mortgage rates depends on the economic impact of policies by the Trump administration and the projected pace of the interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the Fed plans to keep borrowing rates the same at its fourth monetary policy meeting this year. Given ongoing political and economic uncertainty, markets don't expect any interest rate cuts until September. "While two Fed rate cuts are still projected for 2025, they continue to get pushed back due to the global trade war," according to Colin Robertson, founder of The Truth About Mortgage. "Ultimately, economic data related to inflation and employment is what matters to the Fed (and bond traders)." Mortgage rates are linked to 10-year Treasury yields in the bond market, and they are also sensitive to other factors such as investor sentiment. "Concerns remain about higher inflation and federal debt, which would drive both the bond yields and the mortgage rates higher," said Selma Hepp, deputy chief economist for Cotality. Overall, Hepp noted that mortgage rates are unlikely to move outside the narrow range of 6.5% to 7% unless there's an economic downturn or a spike in joblessness. Homebuyers waiting for mortgage rates to fall for the past few years are adjusting to the "higher for longer" rate environment. Costly borrowing rates are just one stressor prospective buyers face in a housing market plagued by high home prices and low inventory. Here are some possible scenarios affecting if mortgage rates move up or down over the next period. CNET Interest rate cuts could help mortgage rates fall While the central bank does not set mortgage rates directly, its policy decisions indirectly influence consumer borrowing rates, like mortgage rates, over the long term. After inflation showed signs of slowing in late 2024, the Fed cut interest rates three times but shifted to a wait-and-see approach this year. Despite market volatility, the central bank has held rates steady, a stance it is set to uphold at its next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 17 to 18. The complex economic landscape presents a challenge for the Fed, which is tasked with maximizing employment and containing inflation. The latest inflation report for May came in softer than anticipated, making the Fed more likely to resume cutting interest rates in the fall. If joblessness climbs due to a recent wave of layoffs, the central bank could cut even sooner to avert a recession, putting downward pressure on Treasury bond yields and mortgage rates. Tariffs could keep mortgage rates elevated "Mortgage rates appear mostly stuck until there's more clarity on tariff impact," Robertson said. For bond yields (and mortgage rates) to fall, or at least stabilize, there needs to be greater clarity on geopolitical relations, the global supply chain and government debt. Trump's tendency to flip-flop on trade policies could spotlight instability for a while. "The impact of tariffs is uncertain, depending on their ultimate impact on inflation and economic activity," Hepp said. "Slowing of economic activity would bring rates lower, while higher inflation would keep rates higher." Inflation is still expected to rise as domestic companies pass expensive duties onto consumers through higher retail prices. If inflation ends up increasing due to Trump's sweeping tariffs, the Fed may have to delay rate cuts until 2026. Bond yields could cause disarray in the market Treasury yields are directly linked to mortgage rates. When bond yields rise, so do borrowing costs on home loans. Fewer interest rate cuts combined with the Trump administration's budget bill, which is expected to significantly raise federal deficits, are likely to keep upward pressure on longer-term bond yields. What we're seeing now is somewhat of an anomaly. Normally, during times of economic uncertainty or turbulence in the stock market, investors flock to the safety of Treasury bonds, causing yields to drop as demand for these lower-risk assets rises. Ongoing concerns about inflation, unemployment and government debt levels have kept Treasury yields volatile and elevated, pointing to declining investor confidence writ large in the economy. A recession could drive mortgage rates lower For mortgage rates to drop significantly, the overall economic picture would have to get a lot bleaker. "Concerns about a recession, driven by rising unemployment or a decline in consumer spending and demand for loans, would drive mortgage rates down," said Hepp. However, if cheaper mortgage rates come as a result of an economic downturn, with households facing job losses, tighter budgets and financial instability, it could also keep homebuyers locked out. Though a recession is not a foregone conclusion, the risk remains elevated. Unemployment is on the rise, consumer sentiment has soured, and economic growth declined in the first quarter of 2025. So the prospect of a slowdown or even stagflation, an economic downturn marked by high inflation, is still in the cards for now. What to know about the housing market now In this unaffordable housing market, costly interest rates have contributed to keeping inventory tight, as homeowners hang onto their cheaper below 5% mortgage rates they scored just a few years ago. While prospective buyers have multiple reasons to wait for the market to shift, homeownership offers the promise of long-term financial stability and generational wealth-building through equity. "Despite higher rates and home prices, homebuyers are finally finding themselves in a position of greater power as inventories continue to grow and sellers are finally ready to make a move," Hepp said. Remember that each lender offers different mortgage rates and terms. Comparing offers from multiple lenders can help you negotiate a better deal. You can also take steps to improve your credit score or buy mortgage points to secure a lower rate. If you can't snag a cheaper rate but are ready to buy, you can always refinance down the road. Experts recommend making a budget and sticking to it. Creating a realistic financial plan can help you decide if you can handle the costs of homeownership and provide you with some estimates for how large your mortgage limit is. Watch this: 6 Ways to Reduce Your Mortgage Interest Rate by 1% or More 02:31
Yahoo
03-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Cotality: External Pressures Suppress Home Price Growth Across the U.S.
Year-over-year price growth slowed to 2.0% in April 2025, with single-family detached homes still growing at 2.46% annual rate while single-family detached homes posted a 0.08% decline — the first annual decline since 2012. Markets with continued largest home price gains this spring remain in Northeast and Midwest, particularly more affordable areas surrounding large expensive metros. Florida, Texas, Hawaii, and Washington D.C. reported negative home price growth. IRVINE, Calif., June 03, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Cotality, a leading global property information, analytics, and data-enabled solutions provider, released its latest Cotality Home Price Index™ (HPI™) for April 2025. April posted the lowest home price growth in more than a decade. Widespread concern about personal finances, job prospects, and potential tariff impacts continues to weigh on home prices. "Housing market headwinds continue to challenge homebuying demand, but improved for-sale supply is providing buyers with more options and helping keep softer price pressures for those looking to buy this spring. And while annual home price growth has slowed considerably, home prices this spring have held up, and gains have mostly mirrored trends seen before the pandemic. This is encouraging given the fears that consumer sentiment has faltered. Cotality's home price forecast for the coming month expects the solid home price trend to continue," said Cotality's Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp. The Northeast, which has been an outlier in recent months and posting solid growth, had a couple of states reverse course in April. New York and Vermont posted home prices that were furthest from their peaks. Also, more markets are posting negative growth, with Hawaii, Florida, Texas, and Washington D.C. seeing price appreciation dip to -2%, -0.8%, -0.7%, and -0.6%, respectively. "It is important to note that the number of markets where home prices are declining has not grown notably," explained Hepp. "About 14 of the 100 largest markets reported annual declines, up from 12 markets last month, with the majority concentrated in Florida and Texas. Cape Coral, Florida shows the largest annual decline at 7% year over year, and prices are back at levels seen in the spring of 2022." Florida continues to course correct after years of explosive growth. Cotality's Office of the Chief Economist reveals that several markets in the state are seeing price declines — the state overall saw -0.8% price appreciation in April — and all five of the U.S.'s most at-risk markets are located in the Sunshine State. Florida also saw its median sales price dip below the national median to $390,000, dropping the state out of the top 20 most expensive markets. The next Cotality Home Price Index will be released July 1, featuring data for May 2025. For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the Cotality Insights blog: Methodology The Cotality HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the Cotality HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The Cotality HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. Cotality HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, Cotality HPI Forecasts project Cotality HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the Cotality HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index. About Market Risk Indicators Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. Cotality data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction. About the Market Condition Indicators As part of the Cotality HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%. Source: Cotality The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from Cotality. Any Cotality data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from Cotality, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the Cotality logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Charity Head at newsmedia@ Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of Cotality. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources. About Cotality Cotality accelerates data, insights, and workflows across the property ecosystem to enable industry professionals to surpass their ambitions and impact society. With billions of real-time data signals across the life cycle of a property, we unearth hidden risks and transformative opportunities for agents, lenders, carriers, and innovators. Get to know us at View source version on Contacts Media Contact Charity HeadCotalityNewsmedia@ Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
