Latest news with #SentryImpactRiskTable
Time of India
10-06-2025
- Science
- Time of India
NASA warns ‘city killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 may impact Moon in 2032; Earth stays safe for now
Asteroid 2024 YR4 : NASA James Webb Space Telescope recent observations reveal the potential that asteroid 2024 YR4 could be a small yet growing risk of collision, despite being no threat to the Moon. The new data reveals the potential danger to the lunar surface, prompting increased scientific interest in the asteroid's trajectory. The Moon remains under the potential threat of asteroid YR4 while Earth can breathe easy. This underscores the need for continued investment in space observation technologies and planetary defence strategies. According to reports, as the asteroid reappears in 2028, astronomers will once again study its orbit, ensuring that if a threat ever does emerge, humanity will be prepared. Asteroid 2024 YR4 poses growing lunar threat, reveals NASA's James Webb Space Telescope In May 2025, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope captured a detailed observation of asteroid 2024 YR4. The space rock, large enough to destroy a city, was last spotted before it disappeared behind the Sun, making this observation humanity's final view until 2028. According to the reports, the new data has refined predictions about YR4's path and revealed a 4.3% chance of it colliding with the Moon in 2032. This may seem like a low probability, but it's worth noting that such figures previously caused concern for Earth when the asteroid was first discovered. Asteroid 2024 YR4 impact from threat to Earth to lunar concern by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Thị trường có dấu hiệu suy thoái không? IC Markets Đăng ký Undo When asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered in December 2024 and reported to the Minor Planet Center, it made headlines due to its unusually high 3.1% chance of impacting Earth; the highest ever recorded for a known asteroid at the time. This risk placed it prominently on NASA's Sentry Impact Risk Table, a list that tracks potential asteroid threats to Earth. Over the next few months, astronomers refined their observations and calculations, gradually reducing YR4's impact probability with Earth to near-zero. However, attention has since shifted to the Moon, where the impact probability has increased steadily, now standing at 4.3%. Reasons behind scientists watching asteroid YR4 closely Size of the city killer asteroid 2024 YR4 NASA and ESA estimate that asteroid 2024 YR4 measures between 174 and 220 feet in diameter approximately the size of a 10-story building. Its destructive potential, combined with its shifting trajectory, makes it a significant object of interest for planetary defense. Observation challenges Due to its orbit around the Sun, YR4 is now out of view and will remain hidden until it returns to a visible range in 2028. Until then, the data gathered by the Webb telescope in March and May 2025 offers the most accurate prediction models currently available. What if asteroid YR4 2024 hits the Moon Although the idea of a Moon impact may sound dramatic, NASA reassures the public that such a collision would not alter the Moon's orbit or significantly affect Earth. The Moon has withstood numerous asteroid impacts over its lifetime, and its mass and orbital stability are robust enough to handle another. Still, a collision would be a rare and scientifically valuable event, giving researchers a close look at how asteroids interact with large celestial bodies. YR4 and the larger threat of near-Earth asteroids Asteroid 2024 YR4 joins a short list of space rocks that have triggered global concern in recent years, the most notable being Apophis, a much larger asteroid once believed to have a small chance of impacting Earth. Though both YR4 and Apophis are now considered safe for Earth, their close calls have emphasized the importance of preparedness and proactive monitoring. Future of planetary defense NASA's DART mission and its success In 2022, NASA successfully conducted the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) — the first mission to deliberately alter an asteroid's trajectory by crashing a spacecraft into it. This mission demonstrated that we can, in principle, deflect a threatening asteroid from a collision course with Earth. NASA upcoming missions and tools NASA and the European Space Agency plan to launch additional missions to observe Apophis in detail. However, some of these plans face uncertainty due to funding constraints under the Trump administration's budget proposal. Meanwhile, NASA is also developing the NEO Surveyor, a powerful infrared space telescope designed to detect 90% of near-Earth objects (NEOs) that are 460 feet or larger and pass within 30 million miles of Earth. Scheduled for launch no earlier than 2027, it will play a crucial role in future planetary defense strategies. Also Read | NASA captures image of Mars' Arsia Mons volcano, nearly twice the height of Earth's tallest mountain
Yahoo
09-06-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Could an asteroid hit the moon? Odds rise after NASA's Webb examines YR4. The projections
Earth is perfectly safe from a menacing asteroid known as 2024 YR4 that is big enough to level a city, but the moon? Not so much. The odds that the asteroid could crash into our celestial neighbor only continue to climb every time astronomers have the chance to better study the massive space rock. NASA's James Webb Space Telescope caught the latest glimpse in May of YR4. The resulting data led the U.S. space agency to conclude that a 4.3% chance exists that YR4 is on a doomed collision course with the moon in 2032, NASA said in a June 5 blog post. That may not sound high, but keep this in mind: After YR4 was first discovered in late-2024, its odds of impact with Earth briefly rose to historically high levels – of just 3.1%. That was all it took for the space rock to grab headlines and warrant close attention from astronomers before it was eventually ruled out as a threat to our planet during an upcoming flyby in seven years. Because the asteroid has now escaped from our view in its orbit around the sun, Webb's recent observations were also the last chance for humanity to observe YR4 until it reemerges in 2028. NASA, though, is already making plans to study it again in three years when the asteroid is back in Earth's cosmic neighborhood. In the meantime, here's a refresher on asteroid 2024 YR4, and what to know about its potential upcoming encounter with the moon. Venus: Asteroids around Venus pose possible 'invisible threat' to Earth Because it's big enough to be deemed a "city killer," asteroid 2024 YR4 became a source of alarm due to the uncommonly high risk it had of colliding with Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. The space rock was reported on Dec. 27, 2024, to the Minor Planet Center, the official authority for observing and reporting new asteroids, comets and other small bodies in the solar system. The object eventually caught the attention of NASA and other astronomers when it rose on the U.S. Space Agency's Sentry Impact Risk Table, which tracks any known asteroids with a non-zero probability of hitting Earth. For a time, it was the only object among more than 37,000 known large space rocks with any chance of hitting Earth anytime soon – with its probability of impact even rising to a record level of 3.1%. That began to change in late February as more precise observations allowed scientists to effectively winnow down the asteroid's odds of impact to a number so low, it may as well be zero. Since YR4 was dismissed as a threat, NASA's Webb telescope has twice turned its eye toward the asteroid to gather some data. The first opportunity came March 8 when Webb – an advanced telescope launched in 2021 with powerful infrared instruments – gathered images allowing NASA and the European Space Agency to get a better idea of its size. According to the agencies' conclusion, 2024 YR4 measures anywhere from 174-220 feet, or about the size of a 10-story building. Earth may no longer be at risk of a calamitous collision with the asteroid, but the moon isn't so lucky. Webb's initial observations in March saw the odds of YR4 crashing into the moon rising from the 1.7% figure calculated in February to 3.8%, according to NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies, which tracks objects like asteroids at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California. Those odds rose once again to 4.3% after Webb's latest observations were made in May. According to NASA, the data helped improve scientists' understanding of where the asteroid will be on Dec. 22, 2032, by nearly 20% But rest assured: If our cosmic neighbor were to take such a hit from an asteroid of that size, NASA assures that the moon's orbit around Earth would not be altered. YR4 and its much larger cousin, the equally infamous Apophis, were the most alarming space rocks astronomers have discovered and studied for decades. Now that the two asteroids have been ruled out as threats to Earth, astronomers still studying such imposing space rocks could help the world's space agencies prepare to mount a planetary defense if the need ever arose. NASA and the European Space Agency had plans to send uncrewed spacecraft to observe Apophis in the years ahead to map and study its surface to gain further insights into near-Earth asteroids. But NASA's mission is in jeopardy under President Donald Trump's budget. Protecting Earth from space rocks could look a little like the test NASA pulled off in 2022 when it demonstrated it was possible to nudge an incoming asteroid out of harm's way by slamming a spacecraft into one as part of its Double Asteroid Redirection Test, or DART. As of October, a craft from the European Space Agency is on the way to get an up-close look at the asteroid's remnants. NASA also is working on an asteroid-hunting telescope known as the NEO Surveyor to find near-Earth objects capable of causing significant damage. Now set to launch no earlier than 2027, the telescope is designed to discover 90% of asteroids and comets that are 460 feet in diameter or larger and come within 30 million miles of Earth's orbit. Eric Lagatta is the Space Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at elagatta@ This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Asteroid called 'city killer' odds rise of moon hit in 2032
Yahoo
05-04-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
NASA's Webb captures first glimpse of asteroid once seen as earth's biggest threat
NASA's James Webb Space Telescope has captured stunning new images of an asteroid that was once ranked as the biggest threat to Earth. Earlier this year, the asteroid 2024 YR4 shot to the top of the planetary defense watchlist after it was predicted to have a 3 percent chance of hitting Earth in 2032. According to reports, there is a slight chance that the space rock, which swings in our direction every four years, could hit the Moon in the coming decade. The asteroid first drew the attention of NASA and astronomers when it appeared on the U.S. space agency's Sentry Impact Risk Table, which tracks asteroids with a non-zero probability of striking Earth. For a time, it was the only object among more than 37,000 known large space rocks with any realistic chance of impact, with its probability peaking at a record 3.1%. However, by late February, more precise observations allowed scientists to refine their calculations, reducing the odds of an Earth impact to virtually zero. NASA and the European Space Agency have released images of the asteroid, appearing as a faint, fuzzy dot. Webb—humanity's most powerful eye in space—has now confirmed that the asteroid measures between 174 and 220 feet (53–67 meters), about the size of a 10-story building. 'The previous size estimate of 131–295 feet (40–90 meters) was derived from visible light measurements from ground-based telescopes,' NASA said in a release. The space rock is the smallest object ever observed by the largest and most powerful space telescope. After mid-April, asteroid 2024 YR4 will move too far and become too faint for ground-based telescopes to track. However, Webb is set to observe it again in late April or early May. Johns Hopkins University astronomer Andrew Rivkin, who helped with the observations, said the observations served as 'invaluable' practice for other asteroids that may threaten the Earth. All this 'gives us a window to understand what other objects the size of 2024 YR4 are like, including the next one that might be heading our way,' he said. While Earth is no longer under threat from 2024 YR4, the Moon still faces a small possibility of impact. Following Webb's observations, NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies updated the asteroid's chances of hitting the Moon on December 22, 2032, raising the probability from 1.7% in February to 3.8%. Even if an impact were to occur, NASA assures it would not alter the Moon's orbit around Earth. Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile and reported to the Minor Planet Center on December 27, 2024. Despite the reduced threat, astronomers are eager to continue monitoring 2024 YR4. Along with its larger counterpart, Apophis—another once-concerning asteroid—YR4 provides a valuable opportunity to study these imposing space rocks. Scientists believe such research could help space agencies refine planetary defense strategies in case a future asteroid ever poses a real danger to Earth.
USA Today
21-02-2025
- Science
- USA Today
Odds of 'city killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 fall once again, now to 0.28%, NASA says
Hear this story AI-assisted summary NASA has been monitoring the asteroid and providing updates on its trajectory. While the asteroid is relatively small, it could still cause significant damage if it were to hit Earth. The asteroid is expected to be visible from Earth through April, allowing astronomers to gather more data. The odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth have fallen once again, now to 0.28%. NASA's announcement Thursday is far lower than the estimated 3.1% chance that NASA set on Tuesday, a record high for an object the size of YR4 or larger. The asteroid is 130 to 300 feet wide. Overnight observations by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies dropped the likelihood of impact once again, after already dropping on Wednesday to 1.5% percent. 'NASA's planetary defense teams will continue to monitor the asteroid to improve our predictions of the asteroid's trajectory,' NASA said in a Thursday blog post. NASA didn't update the odds again on Friday. Although good news for Earth, NASA says the new data increases the chances of an asteroid impact with the Moon to 1%. The asteroid will continue to be visible from Earth through April, giving astronomers some time to gather data with ground-based telescopes. While the asteroid won't again be observable from Earth until June 2028, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope will be able to study it in March from orbit. What are the odds of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth? The asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has 0.28% odds of hitting Earth. Among the more than 37,000 known large space rocks, it's the only one right now with any chance of hitting Earth anytime soon. The space rock was spotted late last year and reported on Dec. 27, 2024, to the Minor Planet Center, the official authority for observing and reporting new asteroids, comets and other small bodies in the solar system. The object eventually caught the attention of NASA and other astronomers when it rose on the U.S. Space Agency's Sentry Impact Risk Table, which tracks any known asteroids with a non-zero probability of hitting Earth. Asteroid 2024 YR4 rates 3 of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a method for astronomers to categorize and rate the threat of near-Earth objects. What would happen if YR4 crashed into Earth? Even though the asteroid is relatively small, it could still be what some are calling a "city killer" because if it were to hit Earth, it could cause significant devastation in a populous area. 'If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city and some of the environs,' Bruce Betts, chief scientist of The Planetary Society, told AFP If it did collide with Earth, an asteroid of that size could cause an explosion in the atmosphere or even create an impact crater, according to the Planetary Society. Both possibilities would likely cause devastating damage on the ground, though not enough for it to be a mass extinction event. The International Asteroid Warning Network put out a list of possible impact locations, which largely includes empty oceans and uninhabited or sparsely populated areas in the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, parts of Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia. However, some possible impact locations are densely populated areas. Fernando Cervantes Jr. is a trending news reporter for USA TODAY. Reach him at and follow him on X @fern_cerv_.
USA Today
20-02-2025
- Science
- USA Today
Odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth drop from record high, NASA says of 'city killer'
AI-assisted summary Asteroid 2024 YR4, measuring 130 to 300 feet wide, currently has a 1.5% chance of impacting Earth in 2032. The odds of impact have decreased from initial estimates, and NASA expects them to continue evolving with further observations. While an impact could cause major damage, it is not large enough to trigger a mass extinction event. The odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in 2032 have fallen to 1.5%, NASA announced Wednesday. That's down from the estimated 3.1% chance the agency said on Tuesday in a record high for an object the size of YR4 or larger. The asteroid is 130 to 300 feet wide. Overnight observations by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies dropped the likelihood of impact. "NASA expects the impact probability to continue to evolve as new observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 are made over the coming days and weeks," NASA wrote in a Wednesday blog post. Astronomers expected YR4's odds of impact to rise before they go down as scientists continue to make more accurate observations of its trajectory. The asteroid will continue to be visible from Earth through April, giving astronomers some time to gather data with ground-based telescopes. While the asteroid won't again be observable from Earth until June 2028, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope will be able to study it in March from orbit. What are the odds of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth? The asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has 1.5% odds of hitting Earth. Among the more than 37,000 known large space rocks, it's the only one right now with any chance of hitting Earth anytime soon. The space rock was spotted late last year and reported on Dec. 27, 2024, to the Minor Planet Center, the official authority for observing and reporting new asteroids, comets and other small bodies in the solar system. The object eventually caught the attention of NASA and other astronomers when it rose on the U.S. Space Agency's Sentry Impact Risk Table, which tracks any known asteroids with a non-zero probability of hitting Earth. Asteroid 2024 YR4 rates 3 of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a method for astronomers to categorize and rate the threat of near-Earth objects. What would happen if YR4 crashed into Earth? Even though the asteroid is relatively small, it could still be what some are calling a "city killer" because if it were to hit Earth, it could cause significant devastation in a populous area. 'If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city and some of the environs,' Bruce Betts, chief scientist of The Planetary Society, told AFP If it did collide with Earth, an asteroid of that size could cause an explosion in the atmosphere or even create an impact crater, according to the Planetary Society. Both possibilities would likely cause devastating damage on the ground, though not enough for it to be a mass extinction event. The International Asteroid Warning Network put out a list of possible impact locations, which largely includes empty oceans and uninhabited or sparsely populated areas in the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, parts of Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia. However, some possible impact locations are densely populated areas.
