Latest news with #ShaunOsborne
Yahoo
7 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Canadian dollar pushes through 73 cents U.S. on more tariff turmoil and possible Bank of Canada hold
The Canadian dollar pushed past 73 cents U.S. on Monday on the rising chances of the Bank of Canada holding interest rates this week as rising tariff risks weaken the greenback. The loonie broke through 73 cents U.S. for the first time since October 2024, continuing an ongoing reversal of fortune against its United States counterpart. The Canadian dollar is now up six per cent from an almost 10-year closing low of 68.8 cents U.S. on Jan. 31. 'Factors continue to shift in favour of a slightly stronger (Canadian dollar),' Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist, and strategist Eric Theoret at the Bank of Nova Scotia, said in a note, adding that 'a cautious hold from the (Bank of Canada) may help the (Canadian dollar) progress and solidify topside (U.S. dollar) resistance.' The Bank of Canada will announce its next interest rate decision on Wednesday. Markets are currently betting that there is a 30 per cent chance of a cut at the meeting, with Royal Bank of Canada and Bank of Montreal abandoning their calls for a 25-basis-point rate cut following the release of stronger-than-expected gross domestic product numbers for the first quarter. Now, BMO is calling for the Bank of Canada to cut rates at its policy meeting at the end of July. A rate hold should provide support to the Canadian dollar, while a cut would make the loonie less attractive to investors. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar started off June on the back foot, giving the loonie another boost. 'The dollar is back on the defensive as June begins, retreating amid a worsening in trade tensions between the United States and its global counterparts,' Carl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay Currency Research, said in a note. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced he would increase tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50 per cent from 25 per cent currently. That move plus resurgent trade tensions between the U.S. and China have pushed the greenback down against a basket of currencies that include the Canadian dollar. On Monday, the U.S. dollar index hit its lowest point since April. Opinion: It's not just trade. Trump may want a dollar deal, too Markets expect a Bank of Canada pause, but these economists have other ideas The index had been on a tear after polls started to track Trump's rising chances of winning the presidency and peaked in mid-January. Since then, the index is down just a bit more than 10 per cent as the president's tariff threats hurt the economic outlook. Although the Canadian dollar has been gaining ground on the U.S. dollar, it's still down against all G10 currencies aside from the greenback since mid-January due to Canada's exposure to the American economy. For example, the loonie is down 12.6 per cent against the Swedish krona, 6.9 per cent against the Swiss franc, 6.3 per cent against the euro and 5.9 per cent against the Japanese yen. • Email: gmvsuhanic@ Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CTV News
23-05-2025
- Business
- CTV News
Loonie ‘actually strengthening' amid unusual market moves: FX strategist
Shaun Osborne, managing director and chief FX strategist at Scotiabank, shares his analysis of the Canadian dollar and the scope for gains of the U.S. dollar.
Yahoo
27-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canadian dollar claws back some losses but lags G10 peers
By Fergal Smith TORONTO (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar clawed back some of the previous day's losses against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as oil prices rose and investors weighed confusion over U.S. tariff negotiations. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3870 per U.S. dollar, or 72.10 U.S. cents, the smallest advance among Group of 10 currencies, after trading in a range of 1.3841 to 1.3899. The U.S. dollar staged a broad retreat as investor gloom over the lack of progress toward defusing the U.S.-China trade war reasserted itself a day after an interlude of optimism. "CAD gains are lagging those of most of its major currency peers though as spot stick to its recent trading range," strategists at Scotiabank, including Shaun Osborne, said in a note. "The federal election is looming but may not have too much impact on CAD sentiment in the short run. The more immediate focus is on US trade policy and its impact on CAD prospects." Canada's ruling Liberals remain in the lead ahead of the parliamentary election on Monday, but the gap with the trailing Conservatives is tightening, a rolling three-day poll showed. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 0.8% higher at $62.79 a barrel, recouping some of the previous day's decline. Canadian payroll employment decreased by 49,000 in February, while average weekly earnings growth slowed to 5.4% year-over-year, data from Statistics Canada showed. Canadian government bond yields moved lower across the curve, tracking moves in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year was down 7.4 basis points at 3.175%.
Reuters
24-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Canadian dollar claws back some losses but lags G10 peers
Summary Canadian dollar gains 0.1% against the greenback Trades in a range of 1.3841 to 1.3899 Price of oil settles 0.8% higher Bond yields ease across the curve TORONTO, April 24 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar clawed back some of the previous day's losses against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as oil prices rose and investors weighed confusion over U.S. tariff negotiations. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3870 per U.S. dollar, or 72.10 U.S. cents, the smallest advance among Group of 10 currencies, after trading in a range of 1.3841 to 1.3899. "CAD gains are lagging those of most of its major currency peers though as spot stick to its recent trading range," strategists at Scotiabank, including Shaun Osborne, said in a note. "The federal election is looming but may not have too much impact on CAD sentiment in the short run. The more immediate focus is on US trade policy and its impact on CAD prospects." Canada's ruling Liberals remain in the lead ahead of the parliamentary election on Monday, but the gap with the trailing Conservatives is tightening, a rolling three-day poll showed. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 0.8% higher at $62.79 a barrel, recouping some of the previous day's decline. Canadian payroll employment decreased by 49,000 in February, while average weekly earnings growth slowed to 5.4% year-over-year, data from Statistics Canada showed. Canadian government bond yields moved lower across the curve, tracking moves in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year was down 7.4 basis points at 3.175%.
Reuters
09-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Canadian dollar strengthens as investors ditch US currency
Summary TORONTO, April 9 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as investors weighed signs of an exodus from American financial assets amid a widening global trade war and despite further losses for oil, one of Canada's major exports. The loonie was trading 0.7% higher at 1.4160 per U.S. dollar, or 70.62 U.S. cents, after touching its strongest intraday level since Friday at 1.4133. here. "For a variety of reasons, investors are bailing out of American financial markets," Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, said in a note. "The U.S. could soon find itself running smaller trade and financial imbalances, but at the cost of much lower growth rates." The U.S. dollar (.DXY), opens new tab tumbled against a basket of major currencies as China said it will impose 84% tariffs on U.S. goods from Thursday, up from the 34% previously announced. U.S. "reciprocal" tariffs on dozens of countries took effect earlier on Wednesday, including massive 104% duties on Chinese goods. Yields on U.S. Treasuries, normally a safe-haven asset, jumped while Wall Street edged higher after heavy losses in recent days. "The CAD is taking the heightened market volatility and increased uncertainty in its stride, at least for now," Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank, said in a note. The price of oil hit a fresh four-year low, down 4.4% at $56.93 a barrel, as tariff increases stoked fears of a global recession. Japan and Canada, which is this year's chair of the G7 developed economies, have agreed to cooperate to maintain stability in financial markets and the global financial system, Japan's Ministry of Finance said. Canadian bond yields rose across the curve, but the moves were less than for U.S. bonds. The 10-year was up 1.8 basis points at 3.155%, after earlier touching its highest level since February 20 at 3.228%.
