Latest news with #ShaunOsborne
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Subdued dollar firms after ECB leaves rates alone; tariffs and Fed in focus
By Alden Bentley and Stefano Rebaudo (Reuters) -The dollar traded sideways versus the euro on Thursday after the European Central Bank held rates steady, and was confined to a tight range against the yen as prospects for higher Japanese rates offset worries about political risk after Sunday's elections. The greenback showed fractional gains late in a subdued U.S. session, with investors girding for a busy news flow next week. The European Central Bank left its policy rate at 2%, as expected, on Thursday, taking a break after a year of policy easing to wait for clarity over Europe's future trade relations with the United States. "The view that the ECB is probably on hold here is probably gaining a bit more traction. We've trimmed expectations for the cuts in September to certainly less than 50/50," said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. The Japanese central bank's deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida, said Tuesday's trade deal with Washington had reduced economic uncertainty, comments that fuelled optimism in the market about the potential resumption of interest rate hikes. Analysts believe the yen will face persistent headwinds after Sunday's upper house election, with the opposition considering a no-confidence motion. The European Union is nearing a deal that would impose a broad 15% tariff on EU goods, diplomats said. The rate, which could also extend to cars, would mirror the framework agreement the United States struck with Japan. "The ECB faces a challenge that is quantitatively different from the BoJ's," said Thierry Wizman, global forex and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. "The euro has appreciated by far more than the JPY so far in 2025, meaning that the disinflationary impulse from U.S. import tariffs may be greater in the EU than in Japan, or the ECB may suspect as much," he added. PMI data showed fragility in France following budget-cut proposals there, but also resilience in Germany and other parts of the euro zone. Data showed that German business activity continued to grow marginally in July. "As of now, there has been very little tariff impact on the hard data," said Mohit Kumar, economist at Jefferies. ECONOMIC FALLOUT Meanwhile, risk assets rallied as the trade deals eased fears over the economic fallout of a global trade war. Next week the Federal Open Market Committee meets and is expected to leave rates where they are as policy makers wait for the expected impact from tariffs on inflation and growth to show up. Traders are now pricing in a 60% chance of a quarter point September rate cut, according to CME's FedWatch tool. A number of U.S. employment releases next week culminate with Friday's big June payrolls report, while the July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and the first revision to 2nd quarter Gross Domestic Product could also move markets. "A lot of event risk next week and not just from the Fed, we've got a lot of data next week as well, so that's probably going to shape expectations to some extent for September," Osborne said. The euro was last off 0.03% $1.1766, near the $1.1830 high from earlier this month, which marked its strongest level in more than three years. Against the yen, the dollar was 0.27% firmer at 146.88, having hit a two-week low earlier in the session at 145.86. Olivier Korber, forex strategist at Societe Generale, expects the yen to strengthen further, citing support from the trade deal and prospects for higher interest rates. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba denied on Wednesday he had decided to quit after a source and media reports said he planned to announce his resignation to take responsibility for a bruising upper house election defeat. Currencies mostly shrugged off news that U.S. President Donald Trump, a vocal critic of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, will visit the central bank on Thursday, a surprise move that escalates tensions between the administration and the Fed. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies including the euro and yen, rose 0.17% to 97.36. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin rose 1.17% to $119,376.30. Ethereum rose 4.62% to $3,735.62. Sign in to access your portfolio
Asharq Al-Awsat
24-07-2025
- Business
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Dollar Holds Steady after ECB Leaves Rates Alone, Tariffs and Fed in Focus
The dollar traded sideways against the euro on Thursday after the European Central Bank held rates steady, and was wedged between prospects for higher Japanese rates that supported the yen and worries about political risk after Sunday's elections. The European Central Bank left interest rates steady at 2%, as expected, on Thursday, taking a break after a year of policy easing to wait for clarity over Europe's future trade relations with the United States, Reuters reported. "The view that the ECB is probably on hold here is probably gaining a bit more traction. We've trimmed expectations for the cuts in September to certainly less than 50/50," said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. The Japanese central bank's deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida, said Tuesday's trade deal with Washington had reduced economic uncertainty, comments that fuelled optimism in the market about the potential resumption of interest rate hikes. Analysts believe the yen will face persistent headwinds after Sunday's upper house election, with the opposition considering a no-confidence motion. The European Union is nearing a deal that would impose a broad 15% tariff on EU goods, diplomats said. The rate, which could also extend to cars, would mirror the framework agreement the United States struck with Japan. "The ECB faces a challenge that is quantitatively different from the BoJ's," said Thierry Wizman, global forex and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. "The euro has appreciated by far more than the JPY so far in 2025, meaning that the disinflationary impulse from US import tariffs may be greater in the EU than in Japan, or the ECB may suspect as much," he added. PMI data showed fragility in France following budget-cut proposals there, but also resilience in Germany and other parts of the euro zone. Data showed that German business activity continued to grow marginally in July. "As of now, there has been very little tariff impact on the hard data," said Mohit Kumar, economist at Jefferies. ECONOMIC FALLOUT Meanwhile, risk assets rallied as the trade deals eased fears over the economic fallout of a global trade war. Next week the Federal Open Market Committee meets and is expected to leave rates where they are as policy makers wait for the expected impact from tariffs on inflation and growth to show up. A number of US employment releases next week culminate with Friday's big June payrolls report, while the July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and the first revision to 2nd quarter Gross Domestic Product could also move markets. "A lot of event risk next week and not just from the Fed, we've got a lot of data next week as well, so that's probably going to shape expectations to some extent for September," Osborne said. The euro was 0.17% firmer at $1.1786, not far from $1.1830 it hit earlier this month, which marked its strongest level in more than three years. Against the yen, the dollar was 0.07% weaker at 146.39, and hit a fresh 2-week low earlier in the session at 145.86. Olivier Korber, forex strategist at Societe Generale, expects the yen to strengthen further, citing support from the trade deal and prospects for higher interest rates. Ishiba denied on Wednesday he had decided to quit after a source and media reports said he planned to announce his resignation to take responsibility for a bruising upper house election defeat. Currencies mostly shrugged off news that US President Donald Trump, a vocal critic of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, will visit the central bank on Thursday, a surprise move that escalates tensions between the administration and the Fed. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies including the euro and yen, was off 0.03% at 97.17. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 0.33% to $118,391.37. Ethereum rose 2.14% to $3,647.18.
Reuters
24-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Subdued dollar firms after ECB leaves rates alone; tariffs and Fed in focus
July 24 (Reuters) - The dollar traded sideways versus the euro on Thursday after the European Central Bank held rates steady, and was confined to a tight range against the yen as prospects for higher Japanese rates offset worries about political risk after Sunday's elections. The greenback showed fractional gains late in a subdued U.S. session, with investors girding for a busy news flow next week. The European Central Bank left its policy rate at 2%, as expected, on Thursday, taking a break after a year of policy easing to wait for clarity over Europe's future trade relations with the United States. "The view that the ECB is probably on hold here is probably gaining a bit more traction. We've trimmed expectations for the cuts in September to certainly less than 50/50," said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. The Japanese central bank's deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida, said Tuesday's trade deal with Washington had reduced economic uncertainty, comments that fuelled optimism in the market about the potential resumption of interest rate hikes. Analysts believe the yen will face persistent headwinds after Sunday's upper house election, with the opposition considering a no-confidence motion. The European Union is nearing a deal that would impose a broad 15% tariff on EU goods, diplomats said. The rate, which could also extend to cars, would mirror the framework agreement the United States struck with Japan. "The ECB faces a challenge that is quantitatively different from the BoJ's," said Thierry Wizman, global forex and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. "The euro has appreciated by far more than the JPY so far in 2025, meaning that the disinflationary impulse from U.S. import tariffs may be greater in the EU than in Japan, or the ECB may suspect as much," he added. PMI data showed fragility in France following budget-cut proposals there, but also resilience in Germany and other parts of the euro zone. Data showed that German business activity continued to grow marginally in July. "As of now, there has been very little tariff impact on the hard data," said Mohit Kumar, economist at Jefferies. Meanwhile, risk assets rallied as the trade deals eased fears over the economic fallout of a global trade war. Next week the Federal Open Market Committee meets and is expected to leave rates where they are as policy makers wait for the expected impact from tariffs on inflation and growth to show up. Traders are now pricing in a 60% chance of a quarter point September rate cut, according to CME's FedWatch tool. A number of U.S. employment releases next week culminate with Friday's big June payrolls report, while the July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and the first revision to 2nd quarter Gross Domestic Product could also move markets. "A lot of event risk next week and not just from the Fed, we've got a lot of data next week as well, so that's probably going to shape expectations to some extent for September," Osborne said. The euro was last off 0.03% $1.1766, near the $1.1830 high from earlier this month, which marked its strongest level in more than three years. Against the yen , the dollar was 0.27% firmer at 146.88, having hit a two-week low earlier in the session at 145.86. Olivier Korber, forex strategist at Societe Generale, expects the yen to strengthen further, citing support from the trade deal and prospects for higher interest rates. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba denied on Wednesday he had decided to quit after a source and media reports said he planned to announce his resignation to take responsibility for a bruising upper house election defeat. Currencies mostly shrugged off news that U.S. President Donald Trump, a vocal critic of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, will visit the central bank on Thursday, a surprise move that escalates tensions between the administration and the Fed. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies including the euro and yen, rose 0.17% to 97.36. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin rose 1.17% to $119,376.30. Ethereum rose 4.62% to $3,735.62.
CNA
24-07-2025
- Business
- CNA
Subdued dollar firms after ECB leaves rates alone; tariffs and Fed in focus
The dollar traded sideways versus the euro on Thursday after the European Central Bank held rates steady, and was confined to a tight range against the yen as prospects for higher Japanese rates offset worries about political risk after Sunday's elections. The greenback showed fractional gains late in a subdued U.S. session, with investors girding for a busy news flow next week. The European Central Bank left its policy rate at 2 per cent, as expected, on Thursday, taking a break after a year of policy easing to wait for clarity over Europe's future trade relations with the United States. "The view that the ECB is probably on hold here is probably gaining a bit more traction. We've trimmed expectations for the cuts in September to certainly less than 50/50," said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. The Japanese central bank's deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida, said Tuesday's trade deal with Washington had reduced economic uncertainty, comments that fuelled optimism in the market about the potential resumption of interest rate hikes. Analysts believe the yen will face persistent headwinds after Sunday's upper house election, with the opposition considering a no-confidence motion. The European Union is nearing a deal that would impose a broad 15 per cent tariff on EU goods, diplomats said. The rate, which could also extend to cars, would mirror the framework agreement the United States struck with Japan. "The ECB faces a challenge that is quantitatively different from the BoJ's," said Thierry Wizman, global forex and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. "The euro has appreciated by far more than the JPY so far in 2025, meaning that the disinflationary impulse from U.S. import tariffs may be greater in the EU than in Japan, or the ECB may suspect as much," he added. PMI data showed fragility in France following budget-cut proposals there, but also resilience in Germany and other parts of the euro zone. Data showed that German business activity continued to grow marginally in July. "As of now, there has been very little tariff impact on the hard data," said Mohit Kumar, economist at Jefferies. ECONOMIC FALLOUT Meanwhile, risk assets rallied as the trade deals eased fears over the economic fallout of a global trade war. Next week the Federal Open Market Committee meets and is expected to leave rates where they are as policy makers wait for the expected impact from tariffs on inflation and growth to show up. Traders are now pricing in a 60 per cent chance of a quarter point September rate cut, according to CME's FedWatch tool. A number of U.S. employment releases next week culminate with Friday's big June payrolls report, while the July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and the first revision to 2nd quarter Gross Domestic Product could also move markets. "A lot of event risk next week and not just from the Fed, we've got a lot of data next week as well, so that's probably going to shape expectations to some extent for September," Osborne said. The euro was last off 0.03 per cent $1.1766, near the $1.1830 high from earlier this month, which marked its strongest level in more than three years. Against the yen, the dollar was 0.27 per cent firmer at 146.88, having hit a two-week low earlier in the session at 145.86. Olivier Korber, forex strategist at Societe Generale, expects the yen to strengthen further, citing support from the trade deal and prospects for higher interest rates. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba denied on Wednesday he had decided to quit after a source and media reports said he planned to announce his resignation to take responsibility for a bruising upper house election defeat. Currencies mostly shrugged off news that U.S. President Donald Trump, a vocal critic of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, will visit the central bank on Thursday, a surprise move that escalates tensions between the administration and the Fed. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies including the euro and yen, rose 0.17 per cent to 97.36.
Yahoo
04-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Posthaste: Canadian dollar could hit 78 cents U.S. and sooner than expected, says Scotiabank analyst
Currency analysts at Scotiabank say it's possible the Canadian dollar could rise to as high as 78 cents U.S. against the greenback by the end of this year instead of 2026 on a deteriorating outlook for the loonie's American counterpart 'We remain a bit more bullish on the CAD (Canadian dollar) outlook, bearish on the U.S. dollar than the Street consensus,' Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank Global FX Strategy, said during a webinar. The Canadian dollar has clocked a strong run over the last six months and is up 6.2 per cent against the U.S. dollar. Thursday alone, the loonie rose 0.5 per cent to an intraday high of 73.76 cents U.S. Conversely, the U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of other major currencies including the Canadian dollar, has fallen nearly 11 per cent in its worst performance over six straight months since the 1970s, and its worst first-half showing since 2017. 'A six-month run (down) is pretty unusual,' Osborne said. 'It does seem quite likely that even though we've seen this significant depreciation … in the past few months. That trend is very likely to continue.' Osborne forecast to the policies and actions of United States President Donald Trump, including his massive tax-cut bill, which is projected to increase U.S. debt by US$3.3 trillion. The bill passed its final legislative test on Thursday and was due to be signed into law by Trump by his July 4 deadline. 'It seems quite likely that we will see persistent deficits in the U.S. Over time we have seen a pretty strong relationship between the situation on the deficit side and the evolution of the U.S. dollar,' he said. Osborne also said the 'potential erosion of Fed (U.S. Federal Reserve) independence is another worry for investors at a time where inflationary pressures still seem to be simmering,' which is another headwind for the U.S. dollar's performance. On Wednesday, Trump said in a Truth Social post that Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell was 'too late' and 'should resign immediately.' The U.S. dollar could decline further if Trump decides to name a 'shadow' chair who is amenable to the president's calls for lower interest rates. 'Given the exceptional returns from the U.S. economy and assets over the last 10 to 15 years, we think we are in a position where global investors have become over-indexed to U.S. dollar assets and they are wondering if that situation is wise and whether it should continue,' Osborne said. There were signs in April that investors were thinking exactly that when the largest net outflow from U.S. Treasuries by Canadian investors ($57.8 billion) was recorded — also bad news for the greenback, but a definite boost to the loonie. On the plus side for the Canadian dollar, a TD Securities report from last week said if Canadian pension funds decide to repatriate U.S. investments to hedge against greenback losses, that flow of money back into Canada could provide a significant lift. TD Securities is currently calling for the Canadian dollar to rise 76 cents U.S. by December. Added Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay Currency Research: 'As long as the slow-motion flight from the dollar continues, the loonie stands to benefit.' to get Posthaste delivered straight to your share of exports destined for the United States shrank to the smallest proportion since at least 1997, excluding the COVID pandemic. Shipments to other countries reached a new high, led by gold exports. Tariffs crushing exports and imports between Canada and its biggest trading partner, exports to other countries helped narrow the nation's trade deficit to $5.9 billion in May, from a record $7.6 billion in April, according to Statistics Canada data on Thursday. — Bloomberg Read the full story here. U.S. markets are closed for the July 4 holiday. Today's Data: S&P Global Canada services and composite purchasing managers indexes Companies caught in digital services tax crossfire as CRA won't issue refunds How does Canada's burgeoning LNG industry measure up to its ambitions? What's the fate of Canada's oil and gas as new era of nation-building dawns Markets just keep chugging along despite a bunch of apparent headwinds. Many investors worry about new highs, thinking the end is nigh but FP columnist Peter Hodson sees market records more as a confirmation of strength rather than a reason to sell. He explains why here. Financial Post published a feature on the death of the summer job as student unemployment reaches crisis levels. We want to hear directly from Canadians aged 15-24 about their summer job search. Send us your story, in 50-100 words, and we'll publish the best submissions in an upcoming edition of FP. You can submit your story by email to fp_economy@ under the subject heading 'Summer job stories.' Please include your name, your age, the city and province where you reside, and a phone number to reach you. Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@ with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we'll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we'll keep your name out of it, of course). Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister's Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won't want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada's lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily. Visit the Financial Post's YouTube channel for interviews with Canada's leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more. Today's Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg. Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@ Posthaste: Canada home prices seen falling further as tariff war deepens downturn Posthaste: Canada is in for a rough couple of quarters, say economists Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
