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What do agriculture experts predict for South Africa's GDP growth in 2025?
What do agriculture experts predict for South Africa's GDP growth in 2025?

IOL News

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • IOL News

What do agriculture experts predict for South Africa's GDP growth in 2025?

There have been mixed reactions from the Agriculture sector and economists on expectations for Tuesday's announcement of the GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025. There have been mixed reactions from the agriculture sector and economists on expectations for Tuesday's announcement of the GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025. Wandile Sihlobo, the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), said, 'One sector that some may be observing is the performance of agriculture, which last year was a significant drag on the economy. The mid-summer drought, delays in harvesting deliveries, and animal diseases were some of the challenges we encountered in 2024.' This year, the conversation should shift somewhat and become more upbeat. 'We have an excellent summer grains and oilseeds season, with the latest production forecasts by the Crop Estimates Committee suggesting a harvest of 17.98 million tonnes, up by 16% from the 2023-24 drought season. Favourable rains and decent area plantings support this,' he said. Sihlobo said South African sugar production for the 2024-25 production season is forecast to recover by 7% year-on-year to 2.09 million tonnes. 'This is also due to favourable weather conditions and the availability of sufficient water for irrigation. We have also received encouraging production data from SA Wine and Vinpro, forecasting South Africa's wine grape harvest at 1.244 million tonnes, an 11% recovery from the exceptionally poor harvest of 2024. We also see encouraging production data from citrus, various fruits, and vegetables. In poultry production, the moderating prices of maize and soybeans should help the industry in its ongoing recovery.' Sihlobo said the one area that remains a concern is the livestock industry, primarily due to the recent outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. 'We have already seen various trading partners temporarily banning South Africa's beef exports due to the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. Given the sizable share contribution of the livestock industry to South Africa's agricultural gross value added, its challenges are something worth reflecting on when considering South African agricultural performance.' Francois Rossouw, the CEO of Southern African Agri Initiative (Saai), said the sector is certainly in a recovery period after the excessive rain the country had. 'It was positive to see a healthy jump in our exports in the first quarter of the year, helped a bit by things running smoother at the ports. However, there are big external challenges ahead, especially when it comes to securing good access to important markets like the US and navigating hurdles in promising places like China. So, while there's some positive momentum, the outlook is definitely shaped by these significant trade issues that need sorting out.' Investec economist, Lara Hodes, said that they expect a weak quarter one 2025 reading, following quarter four 2024's 0.6% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted lift, with incoming data readings for the quarter unfavourable. Specifically, industrial production (mining, manufacturing and electricity), which makes up a substantial 19.5% of GDP, declined by -2.9% qqsa in the first quarter, while the trade sector, which makes up around a further 12.5% of GDP, disappointed, she said. Hodes said the outlook is reflective of a still subdued economy, which continues to face a number of challenges, notably on the logistics front. 'Business Confidence is likely to have remained in contractionary territory at around 47, from 45 logged in Q4.24 and Q3.24 respectively. While political uncertainty has eased to an extent and the GNU is expected to endure, domestic growth remains lacklustre while global uncertainty remains elevated, with the tariff situation fluid.' Johann Els, Old Mutual Group Chief economist, said that given the performance of high-frequency data, he expects GDP growth to be negative. 'I project GDP to be - 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025. This compares to a +0.6% growth in the last quarter of 2024. The reason for the negative projection is the severe production performance in the mining and manufacturing sectors. Mining production, with a weight of 4.8% into the economy, was down more than 16% on an annual basis quarter-on-quarter, and similarly, manufacturing production at a bigger weight of 12.5% of the economy was down 9% on an annual basis quarter-on-quarter.' TLU SA general manager, Bennie van Zyl, said that there are so many interchangeables in the Agriculture sector that it is difficult to compare one year to next year. 'This is due to us having late rain, but it could still result in a good harvest. There are also farmers that haven't harvested yield yet due to the late rains. We also have farmers who are not able to sell cattle due to foot-and-mouth disease, so we have to wait and see. I'm cautious to make a prediction on the sector GDP growth.' BUSINESS REPORT Visit:

Beef price may drop as chicken price hikes
Beef price may drop as chicken price hikes

eNCA

time27-05-2025

  • Business
  • eNCA

Beef price may drop as chicken price hikes

PRETORIA - South Africans are facing a possible rise in chicken meat prices following the government's suspension of poultry imports from Brazil. The move is in response to a bird flu outbreak in the South American country. Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo says the suspension should not be seen as a trade war, but rather as a necessary step to protect local consumers and the poultry industry. Following China's suspension of red meat imports from South Africa, due to foot and mouth disease outbreaks in provinces like Mpumalanga, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, Sihlobo says beef prices could drop locally. South Africa's poultry produces are confident they'll plug the hole created by the suspension of Brazilian imports. The Agriculture Departments says South Africa will, however, continue to import consignments containing products packed on or before the 30th of April 2025, and heat-processed poultry products where the risk of transmitting the virus has been mitigated.

How South Africa's agricultural sector is strengthening trade relations with the EU
How South Africa's agricultural sector is strengthening trade relations with the EU

IOL News

time26-05-2025

  • Business
  • IOL News

How South Africa's agricultural sector is strengthening trade relations with the EU

Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) believes that Deputy President Paul Mashatile's recent visit to France is good news for trade relations for the European Union (EU) and South Africa's agricultural sector. Image: Karen Sandison/ Independent Newspapers Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) believes that Deputy President Paul Mashatile's recent visit to France is good news for trade relations for the European Union (EU) and South Africa's agricultural sector. Farming associations in the agricultural sector also welcomed the news. Wandile Sihlobo, Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, said on Monday that last week South Africa's Deputy President, Paul Mashatile was in France to promote economic cooperation , amongst other things, between the countries. 'Mashatile's visit did not receive much attention as the developments of the Oval Office continued to be the primary focus. But at its core, the work he was doing in France, and by extension, the greater EU, is aligned with the US visit by the South African President, Cyril Ramaphosa, to seek to strengthen relations, attract investment and deepen trade.' Sihlobo said the EU is one of South Africa's important trading partners. 'If we focus on agriculture and assess the EU's participation, it is very encouraging. In the $13.7 billion (R274bn) of South Africa's agricultural exports in 2024, the EU accounted for 19% and was the third-largest agricultural trading partner after the African continent and the collective Asia and the Middle East regions.' Citrus, grapes, wines, dates, avocados, pineapples, fruit juices, apples and pears, berries, apricots and cherries, nuts, and wool were amongst the top agricultural products South Africa exported to the EU in 2024. 'The South African agricultural sector has faced various challenges in the EU market, particularly in citrus. For example, the EU recently used non-tariff barriers by alleging a 'False codling moth', a citrus pest, in South Africa and requiring citrus products to be kept at certain temperatures before accessing the EU market,' he said. Sihlobo added that this issue happened while South Africa had already treated the products to eliminate the chances of such a pest occurrence. 'In a way, one could argue that this was a subtle form of protecting Spanish farmers, who are also major citrus producers within the EU market. Still, this does not change the fact that many agricultural value chains in South Africa have prospered over the years, leaning on the EU market. Importantly, as in the past, we all want to resolve citrus friction and for the countries to affirm a long-term better trading environment for all products.' Sihlobo said while South Africa works to resolve and deepen trade with regions such as the US, where there are higher tariffs, and China, a vital market, but with higher tariffs and phytosanitary barriers, we must not overlook the existing markets that have contributed to our prosperity. 'We should continually engage with the EU, UK, Middle East, and the greater African continent to deepen relations, trade and investment. The continuous conversation about agricultural export diversification within BRICS nations, such as China, India, and Saudi Arabia, is not a replacement for the long-existing relations with the EU and other trading partners.' TLU SA general manager, Bennie van Zyl, said that the association believes that South Africa should keep the country's existing markets intact. 'It is important as we do have the infrastructure to keep our existing markets. However, we believe that it is good news to develop new markets. The export market is very important. It allows us to increase our yield and production. This brings financial value into the fiscus. So it's always good news when there are new markets for export.'

South Africa urged to halt poultry imports from Brazil due to bird flu outbreak
South Africa urged to halt poultry imports from Brazil due to bird flu outbreak

IOL News

time19-05-2025

  • Health
  • IOL News

South Africa urged to halt poultry imports from Brazil due to bird flu outbreak

As the avian influenza outbreak continues to spread in Brazil, calls are increasing for the government to temporarily suspend poultry imports Image: File As the avian influenza outbreak continues to spread in Brazil, calls are increasing for the South African government to temporarily suspend poultry imports from the country. Brazil, the world's largest exporter of chicken, reported its first avian influenza outbreak last week at a commercial farm in the southern region. According to reports, the affected farm supplies Vibra Foods, a major Brazilian poultry producer with backing from Tyson Foods, the US-based meat giant. In response to the outbreak, several countries, including China, the European Union, and most recently Japan, have imposed trade bans to prevent the spread of the disease across borders. Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), emphasised the need for swift action, calling on the government to temporarily ban chicken imports from the South American country. Currently, South Africa imports about 20% of its poultry products from countries such as the US, Argentina, and the EU, with approximately 70% of these imports from Brazil. "Given that we have struggled to address avian influenza in our domestic industry for some time, the appropriate step right now is to temporarily suspend imports of poultry products from Brazil until they are cleared," Sihlobo said. "When animal disease risks exist in countries we import from, we must act swiftly, following global practice, and limit the imports of the affected products," he said. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Ad Loading Sihlobo further said that while he believes swift action is necessary, the final decision rests with the government. "Still, the regulator and policymakers must decide on this issue independently. I am merely making these remarks, judging from what we observe in China and Europe and our experiences with animal diseases". IOL Business Get your news on the go, click here to join the IOL News WhatsApp channel

Spead of foot and mouth disease outbreak threatens South Africa's red meat exports
Spead of foot and mouth disease outbreak threatens South Africa's red meat exports

IOL News

time12-05-2025

  • Business
  • IOL News

Spead of foot and mouth disease outbreak threatens South Africa's red meat exports

Agricultural Farming associations are concerned about the impact of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak on the red meat industry. Image: Picture: Justin Sullivan Getty Images via AFP Farming associations on Monday expressed concern about the impact of Foot and Mouth disease (FMD) outbreak on the red meat export industry. This comes as the People's Republic of China has already suspended imports of cloven hoofed animals and related products following Foot and Mouth Disease outbreaks in KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and Gauteng. The Department of Agriculture on Saturday confirmed an outbreak of FMD in the province of Mpumalanga and new cases in KwaZulu-Natal. Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), on Monday said that the livestock and poultry industries accounted for nearly half of South Africa's agricultural economy. 'Because of this large size, we worry about the sector when these industries encounter challenges. One of the persistent challenges of the South African livestock industry is the prevalence of animal diseases,' Sihlobo said. 'We experienced this challenge most severely from 2022 through 2023 when the cattle industry was affected by foot and mouth disease, the poultry industry by avian influenza, and the pig industry by African swine fever. 'Whenever we have such cases, trading partners typically respond by protecting their borders against potential disease spread. Thus, China has temporarily suspended the imports of beef and cattle products from South Africa. We can assume that this is the start of many temporary pauses on imports that we will see from our trading partners.' Sihlobo added that this will reverse the progress observed in South Africa's beef export recovery. 'For example, in 2024, South Africa's cumulative beef exports increased by 30% from 2023, reaching 38 657 tons. About 57% of this was fresh beef, and 43% was frozen beef. The key markets include China, Egypt, UAE, Jordan, Angola, Mozambique, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Mauritius,' he said. Red Meat Industry Services (RMIS) said that they were concerned following China's suspension of imports of all beef and related products from South Africa. RMIS said the decision by a key trade partner highlighted the severe impact of FMD outbreaks and subsequent trade suspensions on the red meat industry. RMIS CEO Dewald Olivier said that this development was a stark reminder of the fragility of the country's export markets when faced with biosecurity threats. 'The ripple effect of this ban is far-reaching, threatening the livelihoods of producers, feedlots, abattoirs, exporters, and many others across the value chain, while compounding the challenges of biosecurity and economic uncertainty,' Olivier said. 'While we respect China's biosecurity protocols, the economic impact on South African farmers and the entire red meat value chain is severe and disheartening. The setback is especially unfortunate considering the landmark Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between South Africa and China in September 2024, which aimed to deepen bilateral trade cooperation.' Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Olivier added that this MoU, which was celebrated as a key step in strengthening economic ties, included a specific agreement focused on Foot and Mouth Disease prevention and control. 'The MoU aimed to broaden South Africa's export basket with diversified, value-added products to China, reinforcing China's role as South Africa's largest trading partner and opening new avenues for trade and investment,' he said. 'In 2024, South Africa's beef exports experienced significant growth, increasing by 30% from the previous year to reach 38,657 tonnes. China emerged as a key market, accounting for approximately 14% of South Africa's frozen beef exports.' Olivier said that RMIS acknowledged and appreciated the swift escalation of control measures by the Department of Agriculture, including rapid response, containment, and intensified biosecurity efforts. Visit:

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