Latest news with #Silvio
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trends in consumer credit health as student loan payments resume
Student loans are dragging on delinquency rates, VantageScore, as payments resume and the Trump administration directs debt to collections. VantageScore CEO and President Silvio Tavares comes on Asking for a Trend to talk more about the state of consumer credit, risks to be wary of, and the latest data on auto loans. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here. We're checking in on the consumer. New data from VantageScore shows student loans dragging on delinquency rates. Auto loans surging past pre-pandemic highs. For more, bringing in now Silvio Tavares, CEO and president of VantageScore. Silvio, always great to see you, especially on set. So, we are always looking as investors for lines of sight on the consumer, Silvio, different data, different metrics. What, may start big picture. What are you seeing? What do you see with the consumer based on the credit data you have? For, uh, April, what we saw is consumers, um, turning from a more cautious standpoint to being actually net borrowers, increasing their consumption of credit, which was unexpected. And basically what we're seeing is consumers moving from standing on the sidelines to actually increasing their credit utilization, especially in auto loans to get ahead of that tariff pricing that they expect later in the year. So broadly, um, resilient. Do you expect them to stay resilient? What, what, and what would be the, the variable, variables, Silvio, that would depend on? Well, resilient is a really good way to, uh, describe the consumer right now. What we're seeing is average credit balances really staying about the same, some, somewhat of an increase, but not excessive. We're also seeing delinquencies really moderate. Um, there is an increase on a year-over-year basis, but if you look on a historical basis, they're quite resilient. In fact, uh, when you look at the highest quality consumers in terms of their credit score, we call that VantageScore Super Prime, VantageScore 780 and above. We actually saw that percentage of total consumers increase in the month of April. So overall, resilient, high quality credit, and at the same time, consumers are willing to use credit to get ahead of the tariff, uh, price increases they expect. So overall resilient. What are the risks you would have on your radar, Silvio? Well, normally, if you see an increase in credit utilization, but at the same time a worsening of the employment environment, that's when you get concerned, but we didn't see that through April. Um, the employment numbers that came out this week, including yesterday and this morning, they showed that overall employment is steady. Um, and so that's another sign that actually consumers are quite credit healthy. Now, looking forward, if we see the employment picture weakening and at the same time an increase in credit utilization, then it's time to worry because you know that consumers are losing their jobs, at the same time charging up their credit cards. That's a bad sign for the economy. What about auto loans? What's the latest data there, Silvio? Well, auto loans in April, um, we reported this two weeks ago before today's, uh, US Commerce Department report came out. Auto loans surged in April. Um, and in some ways you could, you could foresee that, right? Uh, consumers are looking at the year and they're saying, well, my car's about to give out and, and I see tariffs coming at 50, 100%. I better get ahead of it. And so we saw a significant surge. In fact, borrowing for, uh, for auto loans was higher than pre-pandemic. We haven't seen this rate of growth since, uh, January 2020. What about the resumption of student loan payments? Talk to me about that dynamic and ripple effects. Yeah, student loan reporting started in earnest after, uh, more than a two-year hiatus. It actually started again in earnest in late January and February. And we saw our average VantageScore actually drop by a full percentage point in, um, in February. It's since rebounded and that was a really healthy move because what we saw as consumers seeing that new data being reported and immediately reacting to it, looking to, uh, make their payments on time, get back up to date on their student loans. And as a result, we've seen that average VantageScore come back to 702 and it's stayed at that level since then. That shows a consumer that has a little room on their balance sheet and can get back on track in terms of their student loans. Uh, finally, might touch on the Fed. Uh, their decision to stand pat, Silvio. What does that mean for consumers looking ahead? Well, for now, what it means is consumers are going to continue to have relatively elevated interest payments. Um, if you look at, uh, sort of the, the, the, the long term, um, interest rates are relatively high compared to what we've seen previously. And so with the interest rates staying where they are, it means all other things being equal, fewer consumers taking out new mortgages, fewer consumers maxing out their credit cards, in general, a lower level of credit utilization. I know you're a longtime Fed watcher. What do you make of their decision to stand pat? Well, I think they're concerned about, um, what the impact could be of increased pricing, um, from organically the economy, but, but also, um, some, some one-timers related to tariffs. And they're unclear about how that's going to impact the economy. It could be inflationary and they want to wait and see those results coming through before they make any sudden movements. The reality is, if you look at fundamentally the economy and overall credit health, it's pretty stable. And you don't want to mess up a good thing. 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Yahoo
17-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why consumers are ‘credit healthy' despite market uncertainty
There has been a lot of economic uncertainty recently, but consumers are still "credit healthy," according to VantageScore. Silvio Tavares, VantageScore CEO & President, joins Asking for a Trend to explain what he is seeing from consumers. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here. Big banks posting solid first-quarter earnings with credit quality holding up against the backdrop of economic uncertainty. Our next guest says consumers are showing resilience despite the market volatility. Joining me now is Silvio Tavares, CEO and President of VantageScore. Silvio, great to see you. Great to be here, Josh. So we're as investors, we're always looking for lines of sight. How's the American consumer holding up? Based on the credit data you have, what do you see? Well, we have the most comprehensive data set at VantageScore, over 200 million consumers, and what we saw through the end of March is actually the consumer is credit healthy. Uh we measure credit health by uh the VantageScore credit score. A perfect VantageScore is 850, a very low is 300, and it came out at 702 through the end of March. So a very healthy credit score. What do you chalk that up to, Silvio? Well, it's it was a surprise. I I got to tell you, Josh, we were expecting consumers to have uh deteriorating credit quality. In fact, the opposite was true. If you look at auto loans, credit cards, personal loans, mortgages, across every single one of those credit products, credit delinquencies actually declined compared to February. So consumers are doing everything they can to really get their personal balance sheet in order. Um they are credit healthy and they want to maintain that credit health because, of course, they're concerned about what happens next. So they're credit healthy, Silvio. I guess the big question is do you expect them to remain credit healthy? And what what what are the variables that would depend on? Yeah. So one of the most important things for credit health is employment, and consumers are still overwhelmingly well-employed. We're at historic highs in terms of overall employment. But also, consumers are keeping an eye on their personal balance sheets. They're looking to make sure that they're not overextended on their credit products. We actually saw credit utilization for credit cards decline on a month-over-month basis. So consumers actually trying to lower those credit balances. And what I attribute this to is consumers really trying to focus on making sure that they are credit healthy because there's a lot more uncertainty and risk ahead and they want to be ready for that. You know, we talk about this the consumer, so we often talk about like it's one consumer, but of course, there's high income, middle, low. Are you seeing any differences there that are worth calling out? Absolutely. Um you know, traditionally in a weakening or decelerating economy, it's the lower-income consumers that are most vulnerable. One of the trends that is counterintuitive that we've seen over the last several years is if you look at the high-income consumer, those making over 150,000 a year, so roughly twice the median income, those consumers have actually been having a very significant increase in delinquencies. If you look from January 1st to 2023 to March 31st, what you see is that credit delinquencies have increased by 103% for the high-income consumer. So that's a cause for concern. That's something that we are very much focusing on as we look to the balance of this year. Silvio, always great to see you, especially when you come here and see us on set. Thank you, sir. Thanks for having me, Josh. Sign in to access your portfolio
The Guardian
04-03-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
‘People see it as invasive': did anti-green feeling fuel the right's rise in Germany?
The empty factories in Plattling and Straßkirchen sit just 6 miles (10km) apart but they tell two very different tales about the state of Germany's economy. In Plattling, an ailing paper factory closed two years ago and put 500 people out of work – a casualty of high gas prices and a symbol of the nationwide 'deindustrialisation' that conservatives have blamed squarely on the Greens. In Straßkirchen, cranes are busy assembling a battery factory that will offer 1,600 skilled jobs – a homegrown solution for a car industry that has been overtaken by Chinese competitors in the switch to electric vehicles. Only one of the two narratives has gripped citizens in this rich and conservative corner of the south-east German state of Bavaria. 'Poverty is rising, factories are letting people go – it's all chaos,' said Silvio, a former gastronomy worker. 'The Greens have been a catastrophe.' Germany's political enthusiasm for cutting pollution is dwindling, with growing resistance from the centre-right and far-right parties that won half of all votes cast in last Sunday's federal election. The Greens, a coalition partner in the outgoing government that led the climate and economy ministry, experienced a small slump as young voters turned to the left. Analysts say it is unclear if the persistent attacks on climate policy played a role in rightwing success at the ballot box, as migration and security were the main topics on the campaign trail. But cries of ideological Green 'nonsense' and an 'eco-dictatorship' appear to have resonated in conservative strongholds across the country. 'The [climate] orders pushed through by Berlin don't find any support here,' said Lothar Hartmannsgruber, an optician in Straßkirchen. 'People see it as invasive and patronising.' Such views are common in the electoral district of Deggendorf, home to the Plattling paper mill. The three parties that leaned hardest into attacking climate policies – the far-right AfD, the centre-right CDU/CSU, and the market-liberal FDP – won more votes here than anywhere else in Germany. Their combined vote share was almost the same in the neighbouring district of Straubing, where BMW is building the electric battery factory, at 70%. On a chilly Friday morning in Deggendorf town square, locals said high levels of tax and bureaucracy were threatening the Mittelstand – the mid-sized companies that form the backbone of the German economy. The person most responsible for this, they said, was Robert Habeck, the Green climate and economy minister who became an unpopular figure after his clean heating law was torn apart by tabloids. He has also been criticised for resisting calls to extend the lifetime of nuclear power plants. 'Habeck is a failure,' said one former metalworker, who gave his last name as Hartl and said he had voted for the AfD. 'Heaters now have to be ripped out, electric cars have to come in. It's not an economy any more, it's communism.' A healthcare worker, who gave her last name as Hoyer, said: 'Habeck is a joke figure.' She said she had voted for the conservative CSU, adding: 'I hope they'll be able to drive the economy forward and stop more companies from having to move abroad.' A handful of voters defended the measures and said the Greens were in charge of the economy during a global pandemic and a war that sent the price of gas soaring – a fuel they had long argued should be replaced with renewables. They also said the overall health of the economy was a mixed bag. The Dax, the German stock market index, outperformed its competitors last year even as industrial output shrank. In Deggendorf, the unemployment rate of 3.2% is well below the national average. 'We're talking about a crisis that does not exist in such a bad way,' said Jürgen Linder, a self-employed worker in the car industry and one of the 5% of Green voters in Deggendorf. Sign up to This is Europe The most pressing stories and debates for Europeans – from identity to economics to the environment after newsletter promotion He said choices by some boardrooms and chief executives had led to the current situation. 'If the big companies can't put an electric car on the market that you can afford without a yearly income of €120,000, you can hardly blame it on the Green economy minister.' Understanding whether anger at climate policy motivated rightwing voters could prove crucial to how hard the incoming government tries to stop the planet heating. An analysis found nearly three-quarters of AfD voters were sceptical of more climate action. Support among CDU/CSU voters has declined from 47% in autumn 2023 to 37%. 'These voters can be reached with a conservative, pro-climate narrative,' said Markus Kollberg, a political scientist at Humboldt University of Berlin who co-authored the research with the not-for-profit organisation Heimatwurzeln. 'Left voters are primarily concerned with the environmental and climate-related aspects of the issue,' he said. 'Voters on the right care about energy prices, energy security and its impact on economic growth.' But the election has cast doubt on how willing centre-right politicians will be to make such an argument. The Conservatives have called to overturn the clean heating law and reverse the 2035 ban on new combustion engine cars. They will also will be vulnerable to attacks from the emboldened AfD if they compromise with their probable new coalition partners, the centre-left SPD. But the conservatives' fortunes have also been boosted by voters shocked by the rapid rise of the AfD – and who do not want them to backslide on the climate promises they have made. Sebastian Völkl, who runs a restaurant and catering firm in Straßkirchen, said he voted for the conservatives 'with a heavy heart' after having previously supported an environmental party that was too small to be represented in the federal parliament. 'I know lots of people who voted for the CDU/CSU to get a strong centre,' Völkl said. 'Clever people have put environmental protection into the background – unfortunately – because we fear for our democracy.'
Yahoo
30-01-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Blue Pool acquires minority stake in luxury brand Golden Goose
Hong Kong-based investment company Blue Pool Capital has secured a 12% stake in the Italian luxury lifestyle fashion brand Golden Goose. The transaction was negotiated and agreed shortly after Golden Goose decided to postpone its initial public offering, and was closed on 28 January 2025. Since Permira acquired a majority stake in 2020, Golden Goose has experienced significant growth, with revenues soaring and its community expanding to two million customers. Permira will retain a majority stake in the company. The brand, globally known for its sneakers, has established a strong presence in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific (APAC), supported by more than 200 retail locations and an online and wholesale distribution network. For the nine months leading up to September 2024, the group reported a 12% currency-adjusted year-on-year surge in revenue and an 11% uptick in adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation. These gains were primarily fuelled by a thriving direct-to-consumer segment, which expanded 18% on a currency-adjusted basis. The infusion of capital from Blue Pool Capital arrives as Golden Goose enjoys robust fiscal health amidst a tumultuous climate for high-end goods. Blue Pool Capital CEO Oliver Weisberg said: "We are huge believers in Golden Goose and its management team – and its positioning at the intersection between luxury and sportswear is truly unique. "We look forward to adding value beyond our financing to support Silvio and the great Golden Goose team as they unlock the brand's full potential." The partnership with Blue Pool Capital marks a pivotal chapter for Golden Goose as it strengthens its position as a luxury brand. The company's knowledge in the sports, entertainment and consumer sectors, paired with its understanding of Asia-Pacific markets, is anticipated to propel Golden Goose's expansion and fortify ties with its expanding customer base. Weisberg will join Golden Goose's board of directors. Golden Goose CEO Silvio Campara said: 'We warmly welcome Blue Pool Capital as a strategic partner in our journey to redefine luxury. With Blue Pool's expertise, deep connections in the US and APAC, and impressive portfolio in sports investments, we will push the boundaries of our dream. Together, we will accelerate our growth through innovation while continuing to deliver unique, authentic experiences to our community.' "Blue Pool acquires minority stake in luxury brand Golden Goose " was originally created and published by Retail Insight Network, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site.
