Latest news with #Skibitsky
Yahoo
28-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Ukraine's spy agency says Russia believes it must end the war by 2026 or risk falling far behind the US and China
The deputy head of Ukraine's GUR said the Kremlin forecasts a need to end the war by 2026. Vadym Skibitsky said Moscow is likely concerned about its long-term ability to compete with the US. If the war drags on, its relevance could be relegated just to Eastern Europe, Skibitsky said. Ukraine's intelligence agency said on Tuesday that Russia likely believes it must resolve its war with Kyiv by 2026, or eventually lose its chances of competing with the US and China on the world stage. Maj. Gen. Vadym Skibitsky, a spokesperson for Ukraine's military intelligence agency GUR, referenced forecast documents from the Kremlin at a press event in Kyiv about European security. Business Insider could not independently verify the existence and authenticity of these documents. "We can say that the Russian Federation has clearly defined in these documents that the Ukrainian issue must be resolved by 2026," said Skibitsky, who is also deputy head of GUR. "Because if the war continues for another five to 10 years, Russia will never be able to catch up and reach the same level as the United States and China," he added. Should this happen, Russia could stand to "forever remain a regional player" in Eastern Europe, Skibitsky said. "And the Russian Federation clearly understands this today. That is why it foresees this in the future," he said. Skibitsky said such Russian forecasts typically combine work from government ministries, federal agencies, and research institutions, and that the Kremlin's plans had described war scenarios as far in the future as 2045. These included conflict scenarios with Northern European states, Poland, and the Baltics, Skibitsky said. The deputy spy chief's comments come as the White House has sought to push Ukraine and Russia toward a cease-fire. The effort has surfaced new questions about how long the war will last — and concerns in Ukraine that the resulting peace might only be achieved by giving Russia outsize concessions. In early March, The Washington Post reported that an influential think tank in Moscow had assessed that a "peaceful resolution" to the war by 2026 would be impossible. According to the Post, the analysis recommended a hardline, maximalist stance toward negotiations with the US and Ukraine. However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the outlet that the federal government "was not aware of such recommendations" and was working with "more considered options." The head of GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, recently voiced a similar assessment of Moscow needing a 2026 deadline. "If they don't end this war by 2026, they lose even a chance for global leadership," he told state broadcaster Ukrinform on February 27. "They will be left with, at most, a regional leadership level, which is absolutely unacceptable to them." Budanov said that a protracted war would undermine Russia's ability to innovate in tech and compete with the US on the world stage, especially with its ability to contest the Arctic regions. "The cost of the war is too high — the financial cost," he told Ukrinform. Washington's leaders consider Russia as one of two near-peer competitors or potential adversaries, meaning that it has a chance of being comparable to US military might. The other is China, which leaders in both the Biden and Trump administrations have repeatedly said is the Pentagon's main priority for preparing against threats. The Russian Defense Ministry and the Kremlin's press office did not respond to requests for comment sent by BI. Read the original article on Business Insider
Yahoo
28-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Ukraine's spy agency says Russia believes it must end the war by 2026 or risk falling far behind the US and China
The deputy head of Ukraine's GUR said the Kremlin forecasts a need to end the war by 2026. Vadym Skibitsky said Moscow is likely concerned about its long-term ability to compete with the US. If the war drags on, its relevance could be relegated just to Eastern Europe, Skibitsky said. Ukraine's intelligence agency said on Tuesday that Russia likely believes it must resolve its war with Kyiv by 2026, or eventually lose its chances of competing with the US and China on the world stage. Maj. Gen. Vadym Skibitsky, a spokesperson for Ukraine's military intelligence agency GUR, referenced forecast documents from the Kremlin at a press event in Kyiv about European security. Business Insider could not independently verify the existence and authenticity of these documents. "We can say that the Russian Federation has clearly defined in these documents that the Ukrainian issue must be resolved by 2026," said Skibitsky, who is also deputy head of GUR. "Because if the war continues for another five to 10 years, Russia will never be able to catch up and reach the same level as the United States and China," he added. Should this happen, Russia could stand to "forever remain a regional player" in Eastern Europe, Skibitsky said. "And the Russian Federation clearly understands this today. That is why it foresees this in the future," he said. Skibitsky said such Russian forecasts typically combine work from government ministries, federal agencies, and research institutions, and that the Kremlin's plans had described war scenarios as far in the future as 2045. These included conflict scenarios with Northern European states, Poland, and the Baltics, Skibitsky said. The deputy spy chief's comments come as the White House has sought to push Ukraine and Russia toward a cease-fire. The effort has surfaced new questions about how long the war will last — and concerns in Ukraine that the resulting peace might only be achieved by giving Russia outsize concessions. In early March, The Washington Post reported that an influential think tank in Moscow had assessed that a "peaceful resolution" to the war by 2026 would be impossible. According to the Post, the analysis recommended a hardline, maximalist stance toward negotiations with the US and Ukraine. However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the outlet that the federal government "was not aware of such recommendations" and was working with "more considered options." The head of GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, recently voiced a similar assessment of Moscow needing a 2026 deadline. "If they don't end this war by 2026, they lose even a chance for global leadership," he told state broadcaster Ukrinform on February 27. "They will be left with, at most, a regional leadership level, which is absolutely unacceptable to them." Budanov said that a protracted war would undermine Russia's ability to innovate in tech and compete with the US on the world stage, especially with its ability to contest the Arctic regions. "The cost of the war is too high — the financial cost," he told Ukrinform. Washington's leaders consider Russia as one of two near-peer competitors or potential adversaries, meaning that it has a chance of being comparable to US military might. The other is China, which leaders in both the Biden and Trump administrations have repeatedly said is the Pentagon's main priority for preparing against threats. The Russian Defense Ministry and the Kremlin's press office did not respond to requests for comment sent by BI. Read the original article on Business Insider
Yahoo
04-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Russia is beating its military recruitment goals as Putin pumps cash into bonuses and lets men sign up to avoid trials
A top Ukrainian official said Russia beat its 2024 recruitment goal and is still doing so in 2025. That's after Moscow already raised its goal to 430,000 troops last year. It comes as Russia has poured cash into sign-up bonuses and passed laws to recruit crime suspects. The deputy chief of Ukraine's military intelligence said Russia is exceeding its recruitment targets, affirming Moscow's earlier claim of hiring over 440,000 soldiers in 2024. That recruiting success is set to continue in 2025, Maj. Gen. Vadim Skibitsky said in an interview published by the news agency RBC Ukraine on Monday. "In January, they fulfilled their recruitment plans by 107%," said Skibitsky. "This issue remains relevant, and the Russian authorities have no problem with staffing their troops and filling losses." Skibitsky said Russia initially set a hiring target of 380,000 troops in 2024 but raised it to 430,000 recruits. And beat that goal, he added. In December, Dmitry Medvedev, the chairman of Russia's security council, said Moscow had signed contracts with 440,000 new soldiers in 2024. Skibitsky confirmed that number in his Monday interview and said that Russia officially plans to recruit another 343,000 soldiers in 2025. "But based on the experience of 2024, we know that these plans inevitably change, in the upward direction," he said. Recruiting at that scale is allowing Russia to continue fighting intensely in Ukraine, Skibitsky said. "It is important to understand that almost 80% of those recruited under contract are used to replace combat losses," he told RBC Ukraine. These reported figures come as the Kremlin has poured cash into one-time recruitment bonuses for the military — just one of many ways it's pushing its economy and spending toward defense. In July, Russian leader Vladimir Putin signed a decree that more than doubled the baseline sign-up bonus from 195,000 rubles to 400,000 rubles for the rest of 2024. The 400,000 ruble payout is worth about $4,450 now. But some regions upped their bonuses to nearly 2 million rubles last year, putting them on par with the US military's sign-on payments. "For the Russian Federation, these are very large sums," Skibitsky told RBC Ukraine. Federal statistics from the Russian government in December cited the average monthly wage in the country as 86,500 rubles. Ukraine expects Russia to also significantly ramp up the number of soldiers it recruits from prisons or criminal trials. With Russia already actively recruiting from prisons, Putin signed a bill in October allowing those who face criminal charges to avoid their trials or convictions if they enlist in the military. Skibitsky said Russia's plans for 2025 include 30% of its forces being made up of "special contingents," which describe units fielding inmates or soldiers who signed up to avoid charges. That's up from 15% of its forces involving such troops last year, Skibitsky said. "This issue is already arising for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation — what to do with these people and how to work with them," he said. Analysts from the Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War wrote that Russia likely increased its recruitment target in 2024 because that's when it stepped up the intensity of its assaults in Ukraine. Moscow has, over the last year, started throwing thousands of men daily at Ukrainian positions in ground assaults, sustaining high casualties but also pressuring Kyiv's tired forces on the front lines. ISW analysts wrote that Russia will likely have to raise its recruitment quota again this year to maintain that strategy. "Continued Western military aid would help Ukrainian forces inflict additional losses on the Russian military that would likely intensify Russia's economic and military issues and force Putin into making concessions during meaningful negotiations in 2025," they wrote. Read the original article on Business Insider
