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Al Jazeera
10-07-2025
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
The South Caucasus is slipping from Russia's grasp
The recent flare-up between Russia and Azerbaijan is far more than a diplomatic spat: It marks a potential turning point in the balance of power in the South Caucasus. On June 27, Russian special forces conducted a violent raid on ethnic Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg, an industrial city in Russia's Ural region. About 50 people were detained, several were reportedly injured, and two Azerbaijani brothers – Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov – died in custody under suspicious circumstances. Autopsies revealed blunt-force trauma and broken ribs, contradicting Russian claims that the men died of heart failure. Survivors reported beatings, electrocution, and degrading treatment. Far from being seen as a routine law enforcement action, the operation has been widely interpreted in Baku as a politically motivated act of intimidation – prompting sharp condemnation from Azerbaijani officials and a wave of anger from the public. On July 1, Azerbaijan's ambassador to Russia, Rahman Mustafayev, delivered a formal protest to Moscow, denouncing what he described as the unlawful killing and mistreatment of Azerbaijani citizens, including dual nationals. This diplomatic fallout unfolded just as Baku launched its own high-profile crackdown on organised crime – one that notably included the arrest of several Russian nationals, some reportedly linked to Kremlin-funded media outlets and others accused of cyberfraud and drug trafficking. Among those detained were local staff of Sputnik Azerbaijan, the state-run Russian news agency. While the two episodes are officially unrelated, the timing suggests Azerbaijan is signalling a rejection of external coercion and asserting its sovereignty with new intensity. These developments reflect a deeper geopolitical shift. Russia's traditional levers of influence in the post-Soviet space – military alliances such as the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), energy dependency, and soft power through Russian-language media – are weakening. Strained by the war in Ukraine and international sanctions, the Kremlin has increasingly turned to diaspora policing, symbolic shows of strength, and nationalist rhetoric to maintain control. The Yekaterinburg raid appears to fit this pattern: A demonstration of power aimed at a former Soviet republic now carving out a more independent path. Azerbaijan's traditionally balanced foreign policy is now entering a more assertive phase. For years, Baku carefully navigated its relations with Russia, the West, and Turkiye. But the events of the past week have marked a clear shift: Azerbaijan is adopting a firmer stance against Kremlin pressure while deepening its strategic alignment with Ankara. This evolving alliance is not only strengthening bilateral ties but fostering broader regional integration through organisations such as the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). The implications extend well beyond Azerbaijan. Moscow's deteriorating relationship with Baku may trigger a wider realignment across Central Asia. Kazakhstan has already taken steps to distance itself from Russian influence, while Armenia, under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, has publicly questioned the reliability of Russian security guarantees. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are simultaneously strengthening ties with Turkiye and China. In this context, Azerbaijan's defiance signals not an isolated dispute, but a broader erosion of Moscow's soft power across the former Soviet sphere. For the Kremlin, traditional diplomatic tools are proving increasingly ineffective. In Azerbaijan, public outrage over the deaths in Yekaterinburg is helping shape foreign policy in ways that go beyond formal statecraft. Moscow now faces the real prospect of Baku firmly embedding itself in the Turkish geopolitical orbit – supporting projects such as the Zangezur corridor, and reinforcing a trans-Caspian Turkic axis stretching from Anatolia to Central Asia. This vision stands in stark contrast to the Kremlin's fading Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) project, which now looks more like a symbolic construct than a meaningful alliance. Meanwhile, the media landscape has become another battleground. Russian state outlets – particularly firebrand figures like Vladimir Solovyov – have adopted openly anti-Azerbaijani rhetoric, stoking ethnic and religious tensions. These attacks blur the line between journalism and state propaganda, further inflaming bilateral tensions and undermining traditional diplomatic protocols. Yet, amid the escalating tensions, Azerbaijan faces a rare strategic opportunity. If managed wisely, Baku can leverage this moment to strengthen its leadership role within the Turkic world and reset its relationship with Russia on more equal terms. In the years ahead, Azerbaijan has the potential to emerge not just as a key energy hub, but as a central geopolitical actor in the South Caucasus and beyond. The Yekaterinburg raid is not simply a matter of domestic policing. It is a symptom of the accelerating breakdown of Moscow's grip over its 'near abroad'. What happens next – whether Russia adapts to the changing dynamics or attempts to reassert control through more coercive means – will shape the next chapter of Eurasian geopolitics. One thing is already clear: The regional balance of power is shifting, and Azerbaijan stands squarely at the centre of that transformation. The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial stance.
DW
03-07-2025
- Politics
- DW
Russia: Is Moscow losing Azerbaijan as an ally? – DW – 07/03/2025
Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have cooled following contentious arrests in both countries. Russia may be about to lose even more influence in the Caucasus. Last week, a police raid triggered a diplomatic crisis. Within a few days, the row between Russia and Azerbaijan had escalated, putting considerable strain on the already tense relationship between the two. It began with a controversial police raid in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg on June 27. Several ethnic Azeri men were arrested as part of an investigation into crimes that date back years. The men are accused of carrying out assassinations and murders. Russian special forces clearly went in hard when making the arrests. Two of the men died, presumably as a result of the controversial raid. Baku reacted swiftly and strongly. Azerbaijan's foreign ministry condemned the "unacceptable act of violence" by the Russian security forces. All cultural events with ties to Russia were cancelled in protest. A presenter on primetime state television denounced Moscow's "imperial behavior" toward former Soviet states. On June 30, Azerbaijani authorities arrested two Russian journalists with Russia's state-funded news agency Sputnik Azerbaijan in Baku. According to media reports, the two were working for the Russian domestic security service, the FSB. The Kremlin was restrained in its response. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he regretted Baku's decision to cancel cultural events, stressing that the situation in Yekaterinburg "cannot and should not be a reason for such a reaction." The Russian foreign ministry pointed out that the dead and detained men, although ethnic Azeris, were holders of Russian passports. The following day, the Azerbaijani judicial authorities upped the ante by arresting more Russian citizens in Baku. They are accused of involvement in drug smuggling and organized crime. Photos from the courtroom show that some of the detainees appear to have been beaten. The men were identified on social media as programmers and tourists from Yekaterinburg. The spiral of reciprocal accusations continues to intensify. More Azeris have been arrested in Russia, in the cities of Yekaterinburg and Voronezh. Regional experts described the row to DW as yet another strain on the relationship between the two countries, after the Azerbaijani plane crash late last year. On December 25, 2024, an Azerbaijani plane carrying 62 passengers and five crew was hit by a Russian surface-to-air missile. The tragedy occurred over the city of Grozny, where Russian air defenses were in action. The plane attempted to make an emergency landing, but crashed near the Kazakh city of Aktau. 38 people were killed. The Azerbaijani political scientist and conflict researcher Arif Yunusov believes the harsh rhetoric in both countries' media since then is not a coincidence. In his view, information policy in both Russia and Azerbaijan is coordinated by government authorities, and bilateral relations are largely influenced by the personal feelings of the respective heads of state. Yunusov comments that, for the Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev, there was a personal dimension to the plane crash. A presidential plane was also flying over Russia at the time of the incident: In theory, this too could have become a target for the Russian anti-aircraft missiles. Furthermore, the first official representative to apologize to the Azerbaijanis was not the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, but Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. Yusunov says President Ilham Aliyev was annoyed by this. "Aliyev didn't mention Kadyrov by name, but he was sharply critical, saying that it shouldn't be other people calling him," Yusunov explains. He believes that if Putin had been the first to call Aliyev, the public confrontation could have been avoided. Independent Caucasus expert Kirill Krivosheev agrees. "Putin only made a formal apology, and it was clear that Aliyev was far from satisfied," he told DW. However, Krivosheev emphasizes that recent events in Yekaterinburg were probably not initiated by the Kremlin. Criminal prosecutors in Russia have a logic of their own, he says. "They view all diaspora populations, including the Azeri community, as organized crime groups. It's a widespread trend among sectors of the Russian elite." Krivosheev believes the resulting diplomatic crisis is simply collateral damage. According to Krivosheev, the government in Baku is using the political escalation to reinforce its position on the international stage. "It's important to Aliyev that he comes across as a commanding leader who is able to say no to both Russia and the West." The Azerbaijani political scientist and member of parliament Rasim Muzabekov says Baku no longer sees Moscow as an external power in a position to dictate the rules in the Caucasus. He told DW that Azerbaijan had begun to develop its own military and energy infrastructures, and that this, in turn, had annoyed the Kremlin. Muzabekov says Russian media rhetoric toward Azerbaijan has become much harsher, and that Moscow is now trying to compensate for its loss of influence in the region by exerting pressure on the Azeri diaspora. This could have economic as well as diplomatic consequences — for example, in the energy market. "We shouldn't forget that Russia is under sanctions. And Azerbaijan has helped Moscow to get around these in certain ways," Arif Yunusov observes. "The European parliament has set up a commission to investigate whose gas is being sold to Europe, for example. Is it Azerbaijani, or it is in fact Russian?" If relations between Moscow and Baku were to deteriorate further, any such deal between the two countries would also be jeopardized. The MP Rasim Muzabekov adds that other bilateral projects are also under threat: the development of the International North–South Transport Corridor through Azerbaijan, and the project to synchronize the Russian and Iranian power grids. Muzabekov warns that problems transporting Russian gas through Iran could also not be ruled out. Nonetheless, economic interests are still important to Azerbaijan, says the political scientist Krivosheev. "Ideally, the Azerbaijani economy would like to steer clear of politics. But while Baku still has scope for action, Moscow has less and less leverage." Russia, he concludes, is losing influence in the Caucasus.
Russia Today
02-07-2025
- Politics
- Russia Today
Baku blocking consular access to jailed Russians
Azerbaijan has not granted the Russian citizens recently arrested in Baku access to consular services, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has said. A Baku court jailed at least ten Russian nationals on Tuesday for four months pending trial. Two senior journalists from the Sputnik Azerbaijan news agency, as well as at least eight other Russians, have been behind bars in the country since Monday. Moscow has slammed the arrests as 'unlawful,' and has demanded the Russians' immediate release. 'We have requested that employees of the embassy's consular department be allowed to visit the Russian citizens,' but access has so far 'not been granted,' Zakharova said in a press briefing on Wednesday. She demanded that 'those who want to spoil bilateral relations' cease attempts to further escalate the situation. A number of Azerbaijani news outlets have been spreading 'fake news,' she added. 'These steps cause serious damage to interstate relations,' the spokeswoman said. Earlier Azerbaijani reports about the possible closure of Russian-language schools in the country had been denied by Baku's Education Ministry, Zakharova added. Bilateral relations between Moscow and Baku have been strained as of late. The diplomatic downturn was sparked by a police raid in Russia's Yekaterinburg last week, which targeted an alleged ethnic crime ring composed of Russian nationals of Azerbaijani origin. It was part of an investigation into a series of murders dating back as far as 2001. Two elderly suspects died during the operation, at least one of whom suffered heart failure, according to preliminary information. The incident spurred outrage in Azerbaijani media and among local officials, who have accused Moscow of ethnic bias. Five of the six men arrested have been charged, after one turned state's evidence, Russian authorities reported on Wednesday. Top law enforcement officials from both sides are in direct discussions, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a briefing on Wednesday. When asked to comment on recent video reports that appeared to show bruises and traces of blood on a number of the Russian nationals detained in Azerbaijan, Peskov noted that Moscow had seen the footage and 'noted every detail.' Russia will 'defend the legitimate interests' of its citizens, and will 'use all available means' to that end, he said. The Russian embassy in Baku has confirmed that Russians in Azerbaijan have increasingly complained that they and their families have been subjected to violence.
02-07-2025
- Politics
Azerbaijan detains 7 linked to a Russian media outlet as a rift between Baku and Moscow deepens
BAKU, Azerbaijan -- Seven people linked to a Kremlin-funded media outlet in Azerbaijan's capital have been detained after a raid on its office, the Interior Ministry was quoted by local media as saying Tuesday, in the latest sign of the rift between Moscow and Baku over the deaths of two ethnic Azerbaijanis in Russian custody. Tensions have been growing since December, when an Azerbaijani passenger jet was attacked as it approached Grozny, the regional capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, It later crashed, killing 38 of 67 people aboard, and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev blamed Moscow and said Russian President Vladimir Putin had tried to 'hush up' what happened. On Monday, masked police stormed the offices of Sputnik Azerbaijan. The Interior Ministry said the Kremlin-backed media outlet had continued operating via 'illegal financing,' despite having its accreditation revoked in February. Detained in the raid were Sputnik Azerbaijan's editor-in-chief Yevgeny Belousov, and editorial board director Igor Kartavykh. Five others linked to the media outlet also were detained and under investigation for alleged fraud, illegal entrepreneurship and acquiring property by criminal means. Belousov and Kartavykh were charged with conspiracy to commit fraud, which carries a maximum prison sentence of up to 12 years. They also were charged with conspiracy to launder funds or other property, and conspiracy to carry out an illegal enterprise. Both were arrested and ordered held for at least four months in pre-trial detention. Sputnik's parent company, Rossiya Segodnya, said Tuesday it was 'deeply concerned' by the raid and that Azerbaijani staff members were among those detained. Diplomats from the Russian Consulate have not been grated access to its citizens who were detained, it said, and that Kartavykh's apartment had been searched and computer equipment seized. 'All these actions have no basis and have led to the blocking of Sputnik Azerbaijan,' the statement said. 'We call on the Azerbaijani authorities to immediately resolve this unacceptable situation and release our colleagues.' The Kremlin also called for their release. 'Such measures against members of the media are absolutely not in line with generally accepted rules and norms and, of course, do not match the spirit and nature of Russian-Azerbaijani relations,' spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday. The detentions followed Russian police raids Friday on the homes of ethnic Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg, Russia, as part of an investigation into a number of killings dating back decades. Two brothers, Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov, died while in police custody and several others were seriously injured in the raids, officials said, with nine people detained. Sayfaddin Huseynli, a brother of the two dead Azerbaijanis, told The Associated Press the raids were 'an inhumane, cruel act by Russia against migrants — an act of intimidation.' Migrants from Muslim-majority countries that once were part of the Soviet Union frequently complain of discrimination at the hands of Russians. On Tuesday, the Prosecutor General's Office of Azerbaijan said it would launch a criminal investigation into the two deaths. It said Azerbaijani citizens and others of Azerbaijani descent who were 'practically helpless and unable to defend themselves,' were subjected to beatings and other physical abuse by Russian officials. It attributed the deaths of 60-year-old Huseyn Safarov and 55-year-old Ziyaddin Safarov to 'post-traumatic shock caused by multiple injuries.' Huseyn had also suffered post-hemorrhagic shock, it said. Russia's Investigative Committee said Monday that one of the deaths had been caused by heart failure. It did not provide details on the second victim, but said a medical examination would be conducted to determine the cause of death for both. Azerbaijan protested the deaths by canceling a scheduled trip to Moscow by government officials, citing the 'targeted extrajudicial killings and violence against Azerbaijanis on the basis of their nationality' by Russian law enforcement. It also called off a visit to Baku by a Russian deputy prime minister, and the Culture Ministry canceled concerts, exhibitions and other events by Russian state and private institutions. Ties between Moscow and Baku have been strained since the December crash of an Azerbaijani passenger jet. The plane eventually crashed as it tried to land in nearby Kazakhstan. Aliyev said it was attacked over Russia, albeit unintentionally, and rendered uncontrollable by electronic warfare measures amid allegations that Russian air defense systems were trying to fend off a Ukrainian drone strike near Grozny. Putin apologized to Aliyev for what he called a 'tragic incident' but stopped short of acknowledging responsibility. In May, Aliyev declined to attend Russia's Victory Day parade in Moscow. Later that month, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha visited Azerbaijan, signaling closer ties between Baku and Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called Aliyev to express his condolences on the two deaths in Yekaterinburg, Azerbaijan's presidential press service said.
Winnipeg Free Press
01-07-2025
- Politics
- Winnipeg Free Press
Azerbaijan detains 7 linked to a Russian media outlet as a rift between Baku and Moscow deepens
BAKU, Azerbaijan (AP) — Seven people linked to a Kremlin-funded media outlet in Azerbaijan's capital have been detained after a raid on its office, the country's Interior Ministry said Tuesday, in the latest sign of the rift between Moscow and Baku over the deaths of two ethnic Azerbaijanis in Russian custody. Tensions have been growing since December, when an Azerbaijani passenger jet was attacked as it approached Grozny, the regional capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, It later crashed, killing 38 of 67 people aboard, and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev blamed Moscow and said Russian President Vladimir Putin had tried to 'hush up' what happened. On Monday, masked police stormed the offices of Sputnik Azerbaijan. The Interior Ministry said the Kremlin-backed media outlet had continued operating via 'illegal financing,' despite having its accreditation revoked in February. Detained in the raid were Sputnik Azerbaijan's editor-in-chief Yevgeny Belousov, and editorial board director Igor Kartavykh. Five others linked to the media outlet also were detained and under investigation for alleged fraud, illegal entrepreneurship and acquiring property by criminal means. 2 Russians ordered held for up to 4 months in Azerbaijan Belousov and Kartavykh were charged with conspiracy to commit fraud, which carries a maximum prison sentence of up to 12 years. They also were charged with conspiracy to launder funds or other property, and conspiracy to carry out an illegal enterprise. Both were arrested and ordered held for at least four months in pre-trial detention. Sputnik's parent company, Rossiya Segodnya, said Tuesday it was 'deeply concerned' by the raid and that Azerbaijani staff members were among those detained. Diplomats from the Russian Consulate have not been grated access to its citizens who were detained, it said, and that Kartavykh's apartment had been searched and computer equipment seized. 'All these actions have no basis and have led to the blocking of Sputnik Azerbaijan,' the statement said. 'We call on the Azerbaijani authorities to immediately resolve this unacceptable situation and release our colleagues.' The Kremlin also called for their release. 'Such measures against members of the media are absolutely not in line with generally accepted rules and norms and, of course, do not match the spirit and nature of Russian-Azerbaijani relations,' spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday. A police raid in Yekaterinburg, Russia The detentions followed Russian police raids Friday on the homes of ethnic Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg, Russia, as part of an investigation into a number of killings dating back decades. Two brothers, Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov, died while in police custody and several others were seriously injured in the raids, officials said, with nine people detained. Sayfaddin Huseynli, a brother of the two dead Azerbaijanis, told The Associated Press the raids were 'an inhumane, cruel act by Russia against migrants — an act of intimidation.' Migrants from Muslim-majority countries that once were part of the Soviet Union frequently complain of discrimination at the hands of Russians. On Tuesday, the Prosecutor General's Office of Azerbaijan said it would launch a criminal investigation into the two deaths. It said Azerbaijani citizens and others of Azerbaijani descent who were 'practically helpless and unable to defend themselves,' were subjected to beatings and other physical abuse by Russian officials. It attributed the deaths of 60-year-old Huseyn Safarov and 55-year-old Ziyaddin Safarov to 'post-traumatic shock caused by multiple injuries.' Huseyn had also suffered post-hemorrhagic shock, it said. Russia's Investigative Committee said Monday that one of the deaths had been caused by heart failure. It did not provide details on the second victim, but said a medical examination would be conducted to determine the cause of death for both. Azerbaijan protests the deaths in custody Azerbaijan protested the deaths by canceling a scheduled trip to Moscow by government officials, citing the 'targeted extrajudicial killings and violence against Azerbaijanis on the basis of their nationality' by Russian law enforcement. It also called off a visit to Baku by a Russian deputy prime minister, and the Culture Ministry canceled concerts, exhibitions and other events by Russian state and private institutions. Ties between Moscow and Baku have been strained since the December crash of an Azerbaijani passenger jet. The plane eventually crashed as it tried to land in nearby Kazakhstan. Aliyev said it was attacked over Russia, albeit unintentionally, and rendered uncontrollable by electronic warfare measures amid allegations that Russian air defense systems were trying to fend off a Ukrainian drone strike near Grozny. Putin apologized to Aliyev for what he called a 'tragic incident' but stopped short of acknowledging responsibility. In May, Aliyev declined to attend Russia's Victory Day parade in Moscow. Later that month, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha visited Azerbaijan, signaling closer ties between Baku and Kyiv.
