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Time of India
27-06-2025
- Science
- Time of India
‘Population will collapse'— Elon Musk's prediction gains traction as global numbers drop faster than expected; here's what we know
Tech entrepreneur Elon Musk has once again raised concerns about declining birth rates, calling it a significant risk to the future of human civilisation. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Musk responded to a data thread referencing a Fortune report which suggested that the previously accepted replacement fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is now outdated. The revised figure stands at 2.7, according to scientists cited in the report. Musk warned that continued declines in fertility rates could lead to long-term population collapse, a view he has repeatedly shared in recent years. Replacement rate higher than previously believed The post, originally shared by user Nawfal, pointed out that 2.1 children per woman may no longer be enough to sustain population levels. He noted that the revised number, 2.7, reflects a more accurate replacement rate because it accounts for those who never have children and existing gender imbalances. Nawfal also cited data showing that current fertility rates in many developed countries are far below that threshold. For instance, the U.S. stands at 1.66, while Italy and Japan are even lower at 1.29 and 1.30 respectively. Musk reposted the thread and added, 'People who have kids do need to have 3 kids to make up for those who have 0 or 1 kid or population will collapse.' Musk links birth rate declines to past civilisations Musk has previously drawn parallels between falling fertility and the decline of historic empires. He cited Ancient Rome as an example, stating that reduced birth rates were a major factor in its collapse — something he believes is often overlooked. He has framed the issue as both demographic and mathematical, warning, 'If you don't believe me now, just wait 20 years.' Musk is a father to 14 children. His first child, Nevada Alexander, born in 2002 with then-wife Justine Wilson, died at 10 weeks old. The couple later had five more children: twins Vivian and Griffin, followed by triplets Kai, Saxon, and Damian. UN report highlights global fertility decline The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) also addressed the topic in its 2025 State of World Population Report, titled 'The Real Fertility Crisis.' According to the agency, fertility rates are dropping globally, with many people having fewer children than they would prefer. The report identifies the high cost of child-rearing and difficulty in finding suitable partners as key reasons for the decline. In India, the fertility rate now stands at 1.9 births per woman—below the replacement benchmark of 2.1. UNFPA India Representative Andrea M Wojnar stated that India's fertility rate has dropped significantly since 1970, thanks to improvements in education and healthcare warning joins global research suggesting the world may be heading for a demographic shift driven by declining birth rates.
Time of India
11-06-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
India's fertility rate drops below replacement level even as population hits 1.46 billion: UN report
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel India's population has reached 1.46 billion in 2025, cementing its position as the world's most populous nation, even as its fertility rate continues to decline, according to the United Nations Population Fund 's (UNFPA) State of World Population Report released on report projects that India's population will peak at around 1.7 billion over the next 40 years before beginning to shrink. In comparison, China's population is estimated to be 1.41 billion this year. Last year, India's population stood at 1.44 billion, according to the World Population Prospects 2024 report released by the UN in total fertility rate (TFR) in India has now fallen to 1.9, which is below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population across generations. The UNFPA report highlights that while the national average reflects progress, it conceals sharp disparities across regions, economic classes and social contrast has created what the report calls a 'high fertility and low fertility duality.' States such as Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh continue to show high fertility rates due to poor access to contraception, limited healthcare services and entrenched gender norms. In contrast, states like Delhi, Kerala and Tamil Nadu have sustained below-replacement fertility levels. In these states, many urban, educated middle-class couples are delaying or opting out of parenthood because of rising costs and work-life has seen a significant decline in fertility over the decades, from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to around two today. The National Family Health Survey of 2019–21 recorded a TFR of 2.0 for the first time, signaling the shift below replacement this progress, the report notes that millions in India still face barriers to making informed reproductive choices. Many women are unable to freely decide if and when to have children. The focus, the UNFPA urges, should shift from concerns over falling fertility to fulfilling reproductive intentions.'This is the real crisis, not underpopulation or overpopulation. The answer lies in greater reproductive agency, a person's ability to make free and informed choices about sex, contraception and starting a family,' the report this, a UNFPA-YouGov survey of 14,000 people across 14 countries, including India, found that one in three Indian adults reported experiencing unintended pregnancies. Another 30 percent said they were unable to have as many or as few children as they wanted. Notably, 23 percent experienced constraints were the most cited barrier, with nearly four in ten respondents naming it as a reason they could not have the families they desired. Other hurdles included job insecurity (21 percent), housing issues (22 percent), and lack of access to reliable childcare (18 percent).The report calls for a fundamental shift in population policy discourse, urging governments to prioritise reproductive rights and support systems over alarmist reactions to demographic change
Economic Times
11-06-2025
- Politics
- Economic Times
India's fertility rate drops below replacement level even as population hits 1.46 billion: UN report
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel India's population has reached 1.46 billion in 2025, cementing its position as the world's most populous nation, even as its fertility rate continues to decline, according to the United Nations Population Fund 's (UNFPA) State of World Population Report released on report projects that India's population will peak at around 1.7 billion over the next 40 years before beginning to shrink. In comparison, China's population is estimated to be 1.41 billion this year. Last year, India's population stood at 1.44 billion, according to the World Population Prospects 2024 report released by the UN in total fertility rate (TFR) in India has now fallen to 1.9, which is below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population across generations. The UNFPA report highlights that while the national average reflects progress, it conceals sharp disparities across regions, economic classes and social contrast has created what the report calls a 'high fertility and low fertility duality.' States such as Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh continue to show high fertility rates due to poor access to contraception, limited healthcare services and entrenched gender norms. In contrast, states like Delhi, Kerala and Tamil Nadu have sustained below-replacement fertility levels. In these states, many urban, educated middle-class couples are delaying or opting out of parenthood because of rising costs and work-life has seen a significant decline in fertility over the decades, from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to around two today. The National Family Health Survey of 2019–21 recorded a TFR of 2.0 for the first time, signaling the shift below replacement this progress, the report notes that millions in India still face barriers to making informed reproductive choices. Many women are unable to freely decide if and when to have children. The focus, the UNFPA urges, should shift from concerns over falling fertility to fulfilling reproductive intentions.'This is the real crisis, not underpopulation or overpopulation. The answer lies in greater reproductive agency, a person's ability to make free and informed choices about sex, contraception and starting a family,' the report this, a UNFPA-YouGov survey of 14,000 people across 14 countries, including India, found that one in three Indian adults reported experiencing unintended pregnancies. Another 30 percent said they were unable to have as many or as few children as they wanted. Notably, 23 percent experienced constraints were the most cited barrier, with nearly four in ten respondents naming it as a reason they could not have the families they desired. Other hurdles included job insecurity (21 percent), housing issues (22 percent), and lack of access to reliable childcare (18 percent).The report calls for a fundamental shift in population policy discourse, urging governments to prioritise reproductive rights and support systems over alarmist reactions to demographic change
Time of India
11-06-2025
- Health
- Time of India
UN report: India's population hits 1.46 billion, fertility drops below replacement rate; experts warn of alarming urban TFR decline
In a shocking update, a United Nations (UN) report revealed on Tuesday that India's population for 2025 is estimated at 1.46 billion as well and it has also flagged a declining total fertility rate (TFR) in the world's most populous country. According to the UN Population Fund's (UNFPA) 2025 State of World Population Report, released on Tuesday, the population is expected to rise to about 1.7 billion before it starts to fall around 40 years from now. Moreover, the population of China is estimated to reach 1.41 billion in 2025. On the other hand, India's population was 1.44 billion previous year, as per the World Population Prospects-2024. India's fertility drops below the replacement rate The report titled 'The Real Fertility Crisis' states that one in three adult Indians (36 per cent) face unintended pregnancies, while 30 per cent of them experience unfulfilled desire for having either more or fewer children. Additionally, the UNFPA report showed India's TFR has dropped to 1.9, which is below the replacement level fertility of 2.1 births per woman. This number indicates that women are having fewer children than needed to maintain the population size from one generation to another. What can be done to reverse the decline? We should not take comfort in the fact that India's population has reached 1.46 billion. Instead, we should be concerned about the steadily declining Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which has now dropped to approximately 1.9. 'Reversing declining fertility rates requires a multi-faceted approach. Improving reproductive health services, including quality maternal and child healthcare, family planning resources, and STI prevention, is crucial,' says Dr Usha BR, Consultant - OBGYN, Robotic surgeon, Fertility & Laparoscopic Surgeon, Fortis Hospital, Bannerghatta Road, Bengaluru. Family-friendly policies like paid parental leave, childcare support, and flexible work arrangements can encourage childbearing. 'Fertility awareness education and community involvement can dispel myths and misconceptions. Investing in maternal and child health programs to reduce infant mortality rates can increase confidence in raising children. Additionally, offering fertility support services like IVF can help those struggling with conception, ultimately supporting a healthier demographic balance and mitigating declining fertility rates in India,' adds Dr. BR. Risk factors for the declining fertility rate in India 'If this trend continues, our population may begin to decline significantly, possibly falling to around 930 to 940 million by the year 2100. What is even more alarming is that in urban areas, which comprise about 45 per cent of India's population, the TFR is even lower, between 1.6 and 1.7,' warns Dr Manjunath, Deputy Medical Director, Birla Fertility and IVF, Bangalore. 'This decline is largely attributed to delayed marriages, and among those who are married, delayed pregnancies, with many couples opting to have only one child. Compounding this issue is the growing incidence of diminished ovarian reserve among young women, which is becoming increasingly common. Additionally, the rising trend of women prioritising careers and postponing childbirth is contributing to the fertility decline.' Southern states are particularly affected, with sharper drops in TFR compared to their northern counterparts, prompting governments like Andhra Pradesh's to consider incentives for couples having more children. According to Dr. Manjunath, 'If this trend continues, India may soon face fertility patterns similar to those seen in parts of Southeast Asia and developed European countries, leading to the loss of our demographic dividend.' What can be done to manage the situation? To counter this, it is important to encourage young couples to plan during their peak reproductive years. Dr. Manjunath says, 'We also need to raise awareness that fertility significantly declines after the age of 35. Conceiving naturally or with minimal medical assistance is typically easier between the ages of 25 and 35, and timely family planning is key to preserving reproductive health and national demographic stability.'
Time of India
10-06-2025
- Health
- Time of India
India's fertility rate: 3 generations reflect evolving family reality
NEW DELHI: Sixty-four-year-old Saraswati Devi was married off at 16 in 1976, and by the time she was 30, she was a mother to five sons. If she could do it all over again, Saraswati says she would have fewer children. But her granddaughter Pooja Kumari today has a voice. A graduate, married at 22, she and her husband decided to not have more than two children. The story of Saraswati, her daughter-in-law and granddaughter - three generations of women reflect India's evolving fertility story and their journey finds space in UNFPA's 2025 State of World Population Report. Residents of Bihar's Sheikhpura district, they reflected on how things have changed from grandmothers to granddaughters over 65 years as women gained a voice slowly to an extent over generations affecting fertility aspirations. Saraswati shared that when she was young all the other women in her village had about that many children. If women had fewer, people thought they were sick, Saraswati recalled. "My mother-in-law always said, "The more children you have, the more hands there are to work in the fields." "We didn't know about contraceptives back then," she said. "When I wanted to stop having children, my mother-in-law insisted that I continue, and I could not disobey her," recalled the 64-year-old. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like This Device Made My Power Bill Drop Overnight elecTrick - Save upto 80% on Power Bill Pre-Order Undo Her daughter-in law Anita Devi (42) got married when she was 18 years old in the late 1990s. Unlike her mother-in-law, Anita knew about family planning as health workers visited her village. Nevertheless, she ended up having six children- four daughters and two sons - as her husband and mother-in-law wanted more children, especially a son. But things drastically changed for her daughter Pooja Kumari who is 26 and had her first child at 23. In the following three years, she used contraceptives provided by an Accredited Social Health Activist. She recently decided to have a second child. "We want to raise them well, provide them with a good education, and ensure a secure future for our family. A small family is best," she said. The report noted that in 1960, when India's population was about 436 million, the average woman had nearly six children. But in the years that followed, educational attainment increased, access to reproductive healthcare improved, and more women got a voice. The average woman in India now has about two children.
