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ABC News
5 days ago
- Politics
- ABC News
Guy Barnett will hand down his first state budget amid challenging times for his party
It's not the ideal setting for Treasurer Guy Barnett's first state budget. After watching the Liberals lose all their Tasmanian Lower House seats at this month's federal election, new EMRS polling released on Monday showed the state Liberal Party slumping below Labor in the polls for the first time since 2009. The government's woes were further compounded on Saturday night, with a poor showing at the Legislative Council elections. The Liberals look set to lose one of their four Upper House seats, with election experts forecasting independent Casey Hiscutt is on track to defeat Liberal Stephen Parry in Montgomery and claim the seat his mother Leonie held for the Liberals since 2013. The Liberals also fell flat in Nelson, where candidate Marcus Vermey has failed to win a single booth off independent Meg Webb, including in the traditional Liberal heartland of Sandy Bay. Ms Webb has so far attracted a whopping 52 per cent of the primary vote, with Mr Vermey well back on 34.1 per cent. Political analyst Kevin Bonham says the result shows the issues with the party's brand aren't confined to the federal election, like frontbencher Felix Ellis tried to suggest this week. "There just seems to be no appetite for voters to elect more government members to the Legislative Council," he said. "Voters want the government to be scrutinised." But Dr Bonham says there's no shame in the Liberals, represented by former senator Stephen Parry, losing the seat of Montgomery. Mr Hiscutt leads Mr Parry by 2.47 per cent on primary votes, with Dr Bonham projecting him to extend that lead when preferences are counted on Thursday. "They [the Liberals] won that seat in 2013 and that was a time when the Liberal brand was soaring high and there was massive resentment to the Labor-Green coalition government in that area of the state. "So it was a smart move for Leonie Hiscutt to run as a Liberal even though previous Hiscutts had been independents. "But at the moment it was not a smart move — if Casey Hiscutt had run as Liberal, someone would have come out and out flanked him as an independent, so he's done the clever thing here." Casey Hiscutt's great uncles Desmond and Hugh Hiscutt were previously members of the Legislative Council in the 1980s and 1990s. Whatever the reason, the Liberals' likely defeat in Montgomery makes things even tougher for the government. The six major party MLCs are outnumbered by eight independents and Green Cassy O'Connor. The Liberals, with just three MLCs — ministers Nick Duigan, Kerry Vincent and Jo Palmer — need the support of five other MLCs to pass legislation. That means either five crossbenchers, or Labor and three independents. It makes it harder for a government already frustrated by the Upper House not passing some of its legislation, like its push to allow certain development applications to bypass local councils. The government will need to display some great negotiation skills to get controversial plans, like its special legislation allowing the Macquarie Point stadium to be built, through the Upper House. Getting three independents to join the Labor Party in supporting the stadium won't be an easy task. The government already had its hands full getting two of Tania Rattray, Bec Thomas, Dean Harriss and Ruth Forrest to support the legislation. Now it'll also have to woo Mr Hiscutt, who says he supports the stadium but wants to scrutinise the legislation before guaranteeing he'll vote for it. The recent blows for the Liberal Party make Mr Barnett's first budget even more important. It needs some good PR to get the public back onside. But that's not an easy task when the state is on track to reach almost $10 billion of debt by 2027-28, and doesn't yet have a concrete date to return to surplus. None of that makes it easy to deliver the kind of big funding injections that put smiles on the faces of Tasmanians. At a press conference on Sunday announcing another year of record health expenditure, Mr Barnett said the budget would contain a "very clear pathway to surplus", but refused to answer whether the document would forecast one being achieved in the next four years. And, crucially, he refused to rule out making some calls that will stir up public opposition, like accelerating public sector spending cuts, or unveiling plans to sell state-owned companies. Here's a snippet from the press conference: Journalist: When will we see [economist] Saul Eslake's report into government business enterprises? Mr Barnett: I'll have more to say about that later this week Journalist: So is that your budget day surprise, you're selling assets? Mr Barnett: Let's be very clear in terms of the budget. We're very focused on building a better Tasmania now and for the future, investing in the things that matter for Tasmanians like health; today is an excellent example of that, we've got record funding in health. I'm very excited and looking forward to budget day and I'll have more to say on Thursday. Journalist : So how many assets are you going to sell? Mr Barnett: I'm looking forward to budget day on Thursday. The press conference seemed to point to a budget that could contain some tough love, right at a time when the government needs an easy sell the most. No pressure, Mr Barnett. And it all comes at a time when the government's task of getting the public back onside is set to get even tougher, with its draft stadium legislation set to go out for public consultation in the next week. After EMRS polling showed the Liberals losing the most support in the state's north and north-west, being seen to be ramming through a project that polling says is deeply unpopular there will be pretty tough to sell to the public. And that could make the task of convincing Tasmanians to elect them to a fifth straight term in office at the 2028 state election that little bit tougher than it's already looking.
ABC News
16-05-2025
- Politics
- ABC News
Candidates in Tasmania's Legislative Council election weighing up Hobart stadium decision
The Tasmanian electorate of Montgomery is one of the furthest from Hobart, but the capital city stadium proposal may be a central issue at next Saturday's election for the north-west upper house seat. Voters in Montgomery, which takes in parts of Burnie, the Central Coast, Sheffield and extends south to the Cradle Valley, will go to the polls on May 24 alongside electors in Nelson and Pembroke — two seats with a view of Macquarie Point, the site of the planned arena. But unlike the Hobart seats where popular incumbents are recontesting their roles, Montgomery's Liberal MP Leonie Hiscutt is retiring — leaving the race open to several contenders, including her son Casey Hiscutt. Mr Hiscutt, however, is running as an independent, and the Liberal government is hoping former federal senator Stephen Parry will retain the seat for the party. Independent Gatty Burnett is also standing, as is Greens candidate Darren Briggs and Adrian Pickin from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party. The candidates have offered a range of views on the stadium, and whoever is successful will be crucial to helping — or hindering — the government's plans for the stadium. The Liberal government needs state parliament's upper house, known as the Legislative Council, to pass its special legislation on the stadium if it is to be built as it is currently proposed. It's guaranteed to pass the lower house, where Labor has vowed its support. The AFL issued Tasmania an entry licence to the league on the condition that a stadium be built at Macquarie Point. Premier Jeremy Rockliff has been criticised after issuing an ultimatum to legislative councillors. "If the legislation is not passed, the stadium won't go ahead and the team will not go ahead," Mr Rockliff said earlier this month. Independent upper house MP Ruth Forrest said the premier's language was "threatening." Polling published by the Tasmanian firm EMRS in February indicated the broader north-west population was largely opposed to the stadium, with 65 per cent of the region against the plan, compared to 59 per cent of people statewide. Ulverstone resident Helen Farmer said she had signed up to be a member of the Tasmania Devils team, but she felt the stadium planning had not been transparent and the location was not suitable. Another Montgomery voter, Alan Rowe, said he believed "it'd be a great thing for the state". Data specific to Montgomery has not been published but, coincidentally, the Montgomery candidate stances closely align with the EMRS polling, with three of the five opposed to the government's plan. Mr Parry said he had come across opposition to the stadium in the electorate but believed he had convinced voters to support it when he explained the "long-term benefit". Mr Hiscutt said he was a supporter of a Tasmanian AFL team, which he said relied on a stadium in Hobart for a sustainable business model. He said he would "scrutinise" the legislation, and criticised the government's handling of the negotiations for lacking transparency. Greens candidate Dr Briggs argues that public money spent on the stadium would be better spent on housing. Ms Burnett has similarly said she does not believe the voters back a stadium. "The constituents that I speak to across Montgomery are clear that they don't want a stadium," she said. And the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate says the stadium should be built in Launceston. Political analyst Kevin Bonham says the stadium is not the only race in town for Montgomery voters. "I wouldn't assume that it's an overwhelming issue, but I think it is certainly there," Dr Bonham said. He said he wouldn't expect voters to back "any anti-stadium candidate" on the ticket, but if anyone other than Mr Parry is successful in Montgomery, it could spell trouble for the Liberal government's plans. And earlier this week, Liberal MP Liberal MP Felix Ellis was singing a similar song. "It's quite clear that votes for the other candidates … could kill the dream of an AFL team for Tasmanians."
