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Yahoo
4 days ago
- Science
- Yahoo
Earth's energy balance is rising much faster than scientists predicted, and we have no idea why
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. Earth's energy imbalance is growing faster than anyone expected — and scientists don't understand why. To complicate matters several NASA satellites that provide the highest-resolution picture of this imbalance are nearing the end of their lives, and researchers fear their lone replacement isn't sufficient. In the worst case scenario, scientists could lose one of the leading indicators of climate change, as the next-best way of measuring the energy imbalance has a lag of about 10 years. "What we get from [these] satellites is roughly one decade faster data, so that's why it's so critical," Thorsten Mauritsen, a professor in the department of meteorology at Stockholm University in Sweden and the lead author of a commentary on the issue, told Live Science. "The absolute best option is that NASA continues." Earth's energy imbalance is the difference between the amount of energy our planet receives from the sun and the amount it radiates outward into space. The imbalance is mainly caused by our emissions of greenhouse gases, which trap a portion of the energy radiating from Earth inside the atmosphere, driving temperatures up. Satellite data suggest Earth's energy imbalance has more than doubled over the past two decades, massively exceeding the increase predicted by climate models. In 2023, the imbalance reached 1.8 watts per square meter (0.16 watts per square foot), which was twice what models estimated based on rising greenhouse gas emissions, according to the commentary, which was published May 10 in the journal AGU Advances — but scientists still aren't sure why there has been such an increase in the imbalance recently. Related: 2 billion people could face chaotic and 'irreversible' shift in rainfall patterns if warming continues "We were starting to see this large trend in the last few years, and it just grew and grew," Mauritsen said. "We were both worried about the big trend, and then on the other hand that we are possibly about to lose capability to observe this." For several years, researchers have puzzled over satellite readings of Earth's energy imbalance. At first, it seemed like the numbers might be reflecting the variability of the system and changes due to climate patterns such as El Niño, Mauritsen said. But as the imbalance continued to grow faster than climate models could account for, scientists began to suspect that something bigger was happening. "When it just continued afterwards, I started to get worried," Mauritsen said. Earth's inflated energy imbalance is likely due to a decline in Earth's solar reflectivity — that is, in the amount of energy the planet radiates to space. This decline could be due to a number of reasons, Mauritsen said, including a reduction of reflective surfaces like ice sheets and a decrease in the quantity of reflective particles, or aerosols, from activities like shipping. But the actual reasons remain mysterious. "Something is missing [from the models], but we don't really know right now what it is," Mauritsen said. Regardless of why Earth's energy imbalance is growing so rapidly, the implications are alarming. "The larger the imbalance is, the faster climate change happens," Mauritsen said. "If we have more imbalance, that means more energy accumulating, [so] temperatures rise faster." Earth's energy imbalance is also an important indicator of how far humans have pushed the climate system already, and of what it will take to balance it again. "We expect temperatures to stabilize after we stop burning fossil fuels, roughly," Mauritsen said. "But if that imbalance stays very high, then it pushes further that temperature level that we can stabilize at. That means we have less CO2 left that we can emit before we get to 2 degrees Celsius [or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit of warming], for example." Satellite readings from 2024 indicate that the rate at which Earth's energy imbalance is growing has returned to levels predicted by climate models — but there's no telling what will happen in 2025 and beyond. "It may be in the coming years that we stay at these more expected levels," Mauritsen said. "If it does bounce up to those high levels [again], then I'm not sure where we're heading." To measure Earth's energy imbalance, scientists need satellites equipped with the right instruments. Four such satellites are currently operational and form part of NASA's CERES mission, and these are scheduled to be replaced in 2027 by the follow-on Libera mission, according to the new commentary. But Libera has only one satellite, and scientists worry that instrument failures could introduce gaps in the data, Mauritsen said — and without continuous and overlapping readings from different satellites, it will be much harder to piece together the evolution of Earth's energy imbalance. NASA also has no formal plan to continue monitoring the imbalance once the Libera mission ends, and other instruments aboard the International Space Station have limited mission lifetimes, according to the commentary. RELATED STORIES —Climate wars are approaching — and they will redefine global conflict —Kids born today are going to grow up in a hellscape, grim climate study finds —Global carbon emissions reach new record high in 2024, with no end in sight, scientists say Ocean temperature data give some indication of Earth's energy imbalance, but these records only reveal trends a decade after they have happened, and give a much less spatially-refined picture of the imbalance, Mauritsen said. The agency is brimming with ideas that could advance climate science, but new budget cuts by the Trump administration may put a wrench in the works. For example, NASA scientists recently came up with a "really cool" idea to measure Earth's energy imbalance with spherical satellites, Mauritsen said. These satellites would carry accelerometers capable of measuring radiation from all angles, and then integrating the different sources to calculate the energy imbalance. In the new commentary, Mauritsen and dozens of researchers from institutions across the world call for improved monitoring capability and more research into the evolution of Earth's energy imbalance. "It tells us how far we are from stabilizing Earth's climate, and that's why we need to measure it," Mauritsen said. "If we don't know this, then we are driving our climate system blindfolded."
The Guardian
12-04-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
‘Fika has become more expensive': rising coffee prices affect a Swedish tradition
Nursing an iced chai latte in a Stockholm department store, Emma Tomth says she has cut down her cafe coffee consumption considerably. The 28-year-old social media manager used to buy a latte most days, but with prices having gone up by about 15-20 kronor (about £1-£1.50), she has cut down to two or three times a week. But it is not just about coffee. The economy also extends to fika – the historically hardwired Swedish tradition of meeting for a catch-up over a coffee and a biscuit or cake. 'Many I know are abstaining from meeting for fika to save money. So we do something else instead,' Tomth says. Low-cost alternatives include meeting at home or going on walks, but it is not quite the same as fika, which plays a key social role in an otherwise often introverted society. 'To take a fika with somebody is such a simple and short meeting, but even so, it's so big because you go through what has happened since you last saw them, what's important, or just sit down with someone you like,' says Tomth. Coffee shortages are a global issue, caused by a combination of poor harvests as a result of the climate crisis and extreme weather, increased demand and rising transport costs. But the problems – the price of unroasted coffee beans has risen by over 100% in the last six months – are having a very specific impact in fika-loving Sweden. Amid significant price rises – the cost of a packet of coffee has breached the 100 kronor mark in some shops for a 500g packet – and another increase to come, some Swedes are stockpiling coffee before it goes up again, resulting in empty supermarket shelves. Ulf Mazur, the chief executive of Matpriskollen Sverige (Food Price Survey Sweden), says on Monday there will be the 'largest price increase ever in coffee prices at once'. Although some stores may wait until after Easter to put prices up, he expects prices to rise by up to 25 kronor a packet – as much as 40%. Already sales of ground coffee or coffee beans for use at home have decreased in recent years amid food inflation and changing habits. With many workplaces offering free coffee to their employees, people may be increasing their coffee intake at work, where sitting down for fika with colleagues also plays a central role. 'Coffee is sacred in Sweden, but coffee consumption has declined quite significantly in recent years in volume,' Mazur says. 'People now brew less coffee at home, they reduce waste by being more careful with the dosage, and many probably drink more coffee at work, where it is free. This reduces home consumption.' But the ethnologist Richard Tellström, an associate professor in food and meal science at Stockholm University, is not concerned about the survival of Swedish fika culture. 'Both coffee and fika culture are a central part of how Swedes develop both personal and work relationships, so the cost of coffee is a high priority. If you visit somebody you will always be offered coffee and to decline a cup of coffee can be impolite,' he says. While individual coffee consumption at chain coffee shops could go down, he believes people will not cut down on 'coffee drinking that creates social relationships'. Sign up to This is Europe The most pressing stories and debates for Europeans – from identity to economics to the environment after newsletter promotion But, he says, coffee culture is changing among younger generations, who are instead drinking energy drinks and other soft drinks. 'Drinking coffee is also not – as it used to be – a symbol of having become an adult,' he adds. Sitting in the coffee shop of Kulturhuset, Stockholm's culture house, one 21-year-old student says she has cut down how many times she goes out to fika and study, saving her coffees out for 'special occasions'. 'I usually take tea with me to the library because it gets so expensive to buy coffee out,' she says. Long term, she thinks fika culture could be under threat – particularly among younger people who may not be able to afford to hang out in coffee shops, instead opting for libraries and shopping malls. 'Overall fika has become more expensive. It's very hard to get away from that,' she says.
Yahoo
13-03-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Less mapped than the Moon: quest to reveal the seabed
It covers nearly three-quarters of our planet but the ocean floor is less mapped than the Moon, an astonishing fact driving a global push to build the clearest-ever picture of the seabed. Understanding the ocean depths is crucial for everything from laying undersea cables and calculating tsunami paths, to projecting how seas will rise as the climate warms. When Seabed 2030 launched in 2017, just six percent of the ocean floor was properly mapped. The project has since boosted that figure to over 25 percent, harnessing historic data, sonar from research and industry vessels, and growing computing power. "As we put more data together, we get this beautiful picture of the seafloor, it's really like bringing it into focus," said Vicki Ferrini, head of the project's Atlantic and Indian Ocean Centre. "You start to see the details and the patterns, you start to understand the (ocean) processes in a different way," added Ferrini, a senior research scientist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. Satellite technology means we can now zoom in on the surface of the Moon, or a neighbourhood half-way around the world, but when it comes to the ocean floor, there's a basic problem. "It's physics," said Ferrini. "The water is in the way." While instruments can peer through relatively shallow depths to the sea floor, for most of the ocean only acoustic methods are viable -- sonar that pings the seabed and returns data on depths. In the past, most ships used single beam sonar, sending down a single echo and offering one data point at a time. Nowadays, multibeam sonar is common, explained Martin Jakobsson, dean of earth and environmental science at Stockholm University and co-head of Seabed 2030's Arctic and North Pacific centre. "You get a swathe, almost like a 3D view directly, and that's really what we want to map the ocean with." - 'More geopolitical than ever' - But the availability of multibeam sonar did not translate into a central clearing house for data, and not all data collection is equal. Different vessels collect at different resolutions, and data capture can be affected by the turbidity of the ocean and even the tides. Collating, correcting and integrating that data is where Seabed 2030 has come in. "We have this real patchwork," said Ferrini. "We do our best to weave it all together... making sure that we are normalising and justifying all of these measurements." The project has set relatively coarse resolution targets for mapping -- grid cell sizes of 400 metres squared (4,300 square feet) for most of the ocean floor -- but even achieving that is a complicated process. "It's a cost issue, it's also a 'people don't know why it's needed' issue," Jakobsson said. "And right now it's more geopolitical than ever before," he added, particularly in the heavily contested Arctic. - 'Just beautiful' - The project has benefitted from some technological advances, including the spread of multibeam sonar and growing computing power. Machine learning helps with data processing and pattern recognition, and can even enhance imagery and try to fill in some gaps. "As we start to bring together each trackline and paint the picture more completely... we start to see these incredible meandering channels on the seafloor that look just like what we see on land," said Ferrini. It is "just beautiful," she added. Part of the project, which is funded by the Japanese non-profit Nippon Foundation, has been finding the biggest gaps in seafloor knowledge, most often in the open sea and areas outside common shipping routes. Autonomous platforms equipped with sonar that can float at sea could speed up data collection, although for now uncovering "hidden" data that is sitting unshared is helping fill many gaps. The work comes as countries debate whether to open stretches of the seabed to the mining of minerals used in the energy transition. It is a divisive question, and like many scientists Ferrini warns against proceeding without more research. "We need to have the data so we can make data-informed decisions, and we don't yet." sah/cms/tc
Khaleej Times
13-03-2025
- Science
- Khaleej Times
Less mapped than the Moon: quest to reveal the seabed
It covers nearly three-quarters of our planet but the ocean floor is less mapped than the Moon, an astonishing fact driving a global push to build the clearest-ever picture of the seabed. Understanding the ocean depths is crucial for everything from laying undersea cables and calculating tsunami paths, to projecting how seas will rise as the climate warms. When Seabed 2030 launched in 2017, just six percent of the ocean floor was properly mapped. The project has since boosted that figure to over 25 per cent, harnessing historic data, sonar from research and industry vessels, and growing computing power. "As we put more data together, we get this beautiful picture of the seafloor, it's really like bringing it into focus," said Vicki Ferrini, head of the project's Atlantic and Indian Ocean Centre. "You start to see the details and the patterns, you start to understand the (ocean) processes in a different way," added Ferrini, a senior research scientist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. Satellite technology means we can now zoom in on the surface of the Moon, or a neighbourhood half-way around the world, but when it comes to the ocean floor, there's a basic problem. "It's physics," said Ferrini. "The water is in the way." While instruments can peer through relatively shallow depths to the sea floor, for most of the ocean only acoustic methods are viable -- sonar that pings the seabed and returns data on depths. In the past, most ships used single beam sonar, sending down a single echo and offering one data point at a time. Nowadays, multibeam sonar is common, explained Martin Jakobsson, dean of earth and environmental science at Stockholm University and co-head of Seabed 2030's Arctic and North Pacific centre. "You get a swathe, almost like a 3D view directly, and that's really what we want to map the ocean with." - 'More geopolitical than ever' - But the availability of multibeam sonar did not translate into a central clearing house for data, and not all data collection is equal. Different vessels collect at different resolutions, and data capture can be affected by the turbidity of the ocean and even the tides. Collating, correcting and integrating that data is where Seabed 2030 has come in. "We have this real patchwork," said Ferrini. "We do our best to weave it all together... making sure that we are normalising and justifying all of these measurements." The project has set relatively coarse resolution targets for mapping -- grid cell sizes of 400 metres squared (4,300 square feet) for most of the ocean floor -- but even achieving that is a complicated process. "It's a cost issue, it's also a 'people don't know why it's needed' issue," Jakobsson said. "And right now it's more geopolitical than ever before," he added, particularly in the heavily contested Arctic. - 'Just beautiful' - The project has benefitted from some technological advances, including the spread of multibeam sonar and growing computing power. Machine learning helps with data processing and pattern recognition, and can even enhance imagery and try to fill in some gaps. "As we start to bring together each trackline and paint the picture more completely... we start to see these incredible meandering channels on the seafloor that look just like what we see on land," said Ferrini. It is "just beautiful," she added. Part of the project, which is funded by the Japanese non-profit Nippon Foundation, has been finding the biggest gaps in seafloor knowledge, most often in the open sea and areas outside common shipping routes. Autonomous platforms equipped with sonar that can float at sea could speed up data collection, although for now uncovering "hidden" data that is sitting unshared is helping fill many gaps. The work comes as countries debate whether to open stretches of the seabed to the mining of minerals used in the energy transition. It is a divisive question, and like many scientists Ferrini warns against proceeding without more research.
CBS News
13-02-2025
- Health
- CBS News
How healthy is your relationship ahead of Valentine's Day? Researchers develop special test
Valentine's Day is upon us and even if you have a special someone, is your relationship a good one? Researchers in Sweden have designed a "Valentine's Scale" to help you determine the quality of your connection. Being in a loving relationship can bring psychological well-being, improve your quality of life, and support good overall health, but how do you know if your relationship is healthy? Researchers at Stockholm University have developed what they call a scientifically validated scale, the "Valentine's Scale" which can measure how satisfied you are in your romantic relationship. Valentine's Scale The scale consists of seven questions that touch on key aspects of a relationship such as emotional closeness, trust, and conflict resolution. Asking questions such as "Can you confide in your partner?", "When you and your partner disagree, do you get over it quickly?", "How emotionally close do you feel to your partner?", and "How often have you recently considered separating from your partner?" It then tells you whether you have a strong, loving, stable relationship and offers tips on how to improve your bond. Researchers said two studies involving over 1,300 participants show that the scale has high reliability over time. It's a tool "for reflection and dialogue, not as a definitive assessment of the future of the relationship." Encourages open communication The goal is to encourage open communication and understanding and not create undue stress. The scientists suggest doing the test on Valentine's Day as a way to get closer to your partner without overinterpreting the results. The test is free of charge and can be found here.
