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AllAfrica
10 hours ago
- Business
- AllAfrica
Mission impossible? Indo-Pacific energy security cooperation
This article first appeared on Pacific Forum and is republished with permission. Read the original here. The recent attacks by Israel and the United States on Iran's clandestine nuclear facilities have had a detrimental effect on the economic and energy security of the Indo-Pacific region. The Iranian Parliament recommended to the Supreme National Security Council, chaired by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, to close the Strait of Hormuz, a limited passageway that is responsible for 20% of global oil shipments. The dependence of major Indo-Pacific economies on oil trade that traverses the Strait of Hormuz is not trivial. In 2025, approximately 80% of Japan's, 60% of South Korea's, 37% of India's, and 38% of China's oil imports are sourced from the Persian Gulf, which is traversed by the Strait of Hormuz. Recent statistics indicate that 84% of crude oil shipments and 83% of natural gas trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz are directed towards Asian markets. Israel and the US' attacks positioned global and regional actors in a precarious state. While the closure of the Strait may not align with Iran's interests, alternative asymmetric warfare strategies could pose a considerable threat to the interests of major economies in the Indo-Pacific region, and Iran could use this as a bargaining chip. Navigation is subject to electronic interference through GPS jamming, which can significantly disrupt maritime trade. During the 12 days of conflict, significant jamming originated from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, affecting not only the Strait of Hormuz but also ports throughout the Gulf, including those in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. The situation led to atypical navigation patterns among cargo vessels in the narrow passage of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting ships to execute U-turns due to disorientation. Two vessels collided near the coast of Khor Fakkan port in the UAE. Jamming may lead to vessels intruding into Iran's territorial waters, which Tehran could exploit as leverage. Alternative measures include the seizure of vessels, a practice that occurred frequently prior to the 12-day war between Iran and Israel. In November 2024, Iranian authorities confiscated the Marshall Islands-based oil tanker St. Nikolas. Iran viewed it as a retaliatory action against the US for the prior appropriation of Iranian oil. Despite the end of the direct conflict between Israel and Iran, oil shipment through the primary maritime chokepoint in the Strait of Hormuz remains vulnerable. Trade between Europe and the Indo-Pacific has suffered significant losses as well since October 2023 due to the activities of Ansar Allah, the military wing of the Houthi movement, which has prevented freedom of navigation in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Another negative consequence of any disruption of oil shipments could be the sudden price increase, which can slow down the GDP growth as well as create inflation. According to one estimate, if the oil price were to spike to around $120 or $130, this would mean a 0.6% loss in the predicted GDP for Japan in 2026. Indo-Pacific states have distinct stances on the potential for mitigating security risks and dependency on the Strait of Hormuz. Any approach may incorporate a combination of the following policy elements First, enhancing maritime governance and increasing naval military presence and deployment in the Strait of Hormuz: India has engaged in anti-piracy activities for several years in the Horn of Africa; however, its multi-alignment strategy has hindered its participation in any military actions in the Persian Gulf. South Korea and Japan have consistently engaged in naval operations in and around the Strait of Hormuz to safeguard their commercial fleets. China has significantly invested in ports such as Duqm in Oman and Khalifa Port in the UAE, and the country also engages in cooperative multinational naval exercises in the area. Second, deeper engagement and active diplomacy with regional entities, particularly the Gulf Cooperation Council and Iran. Beijing has created the China-GCC framework as a forum to tackle shared concerns and formalized a comprehensive strategic cooperation with Iran for a duration of 25 years in 2021. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged Chinese leaders to advise Iran against closing the Strait of Hormuz. It presupposes that China possesses a dominant position in matters concerning Iran, likely overstating its current influence. Regarding India, the India-Middle East Economic Corridor is a potential alternative for enhanced interaction with the Gulf States; nevertheless, investment in this corridor necessitates political stability. Third, reducing the proportion of fossil fuels in the energy mix and enhancing reliance on renewable sources. Japan, being the most susceptible regarding fossil fuel imports, must expedite its investments in solar, wind, and other forms of renewable energy, which commenced following the Fukushima disaster in 2011. Fourth, identify alternate sources of fossil fuels and/or invest in other energy corridors. India may augment its dependence on Russia and/or the United States, while nations might invest in other oil pipelines; yet critical chokepoints remain interchangeable. Collectively, none of the above approaches could offer immediate benefits; they require further time and money to mitigate the dangers. The immediate remedy is to resume the stalled nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran and to achieve an agreement, which may also provide further advantages to regional economies. Indo-Pacific countries can engage in mediation and conflict management, which helps to consolidate the situation however this is no magical bullet to inculcate stability into their economies and maximize their economic security. As part of this engagement, the Indo-Pacific region must deploy economic and diplomatic tools to prevent cascading energy insecurity from destabilizing the global economy. It must inclusive, requiring the cooperation of US, Japan, South Korea, India, ASEAN and China. China possesses the most significant stabilization capacity through its Strategic Petroleum Reserve of approximately 531 million barrels. Beijing's immediate release of 100-150 million barrels could dampen price spikes while demonstrating responsible stakeholder behavior. China's existing energy relationships with Russia and Central Asia provide alternative supply routes via overland pipelines, reducing reliance on maritime chokepoints. However, Beijing must balance energy security imperatives against its Iranian diplomatic relationships. Japan, in contrast, can leverage its sophisticated LNG infrastructure and 90-to-145-day strategic reserve to maintain regional stability. Tokyo should immediately activate swap agreements with Australia and Qatar while accelerating renewable energy deployment. Japan's advanced refining capacity could process heavier crude grades from alternative suppliers, providing regional flexibility. India's current government SPR sites (Visakhapatnam, Mangaluru, Padur) offer a combined capacity of 5.33 million metric tons (MMT), equal to about 9–10 days of domestic crude demand. Delhi must immediately pursue rupee-denominated arrangements with Russia and the UAE while leveraging the International North-South Transport Corridor for Iranian-independent energy flows. India's refining overcapacity could serve regional markets if crude supplies are secured. ASEAN nations should collectively activate the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement, pooling strategic reserves and coordinating demand reduction measures. Singapore's refining hub and Indonesia's domestic production provide limited regional buffers. Thailand and the Philippines must accelerate renewable transitions to reduce medium-term vulnerability. South Korea can deploy its 95-to-106-day strategic reserve while leveraging advanced petrochemical facilities to maximize efficiency. Seoul should coordinate with Tokyo on joint procurement strategies and explore expanded Canadian and US LNG imports. Lastly, the US could immediately release SPR volumes while accelerating export permits for LNG and crude to Indo-Pacific allies. Reactivation of mothballed shale production could offset Iranian supply within 90-120 days. Washington should provide naval escorts for tanker traffic through alternative routes. A coordinated response framework could be established as an emergency energy coordination mechanism. This initiative could synchronize SPR releases to coordinated drawdowns preventing competitive hoarding. Joint procurement initiatives could be leveraged for collective bargaining with alternative suppliers. Shipping route diversification could secure corridors via the Cape of Good Hope and expanded pipeline capacity to avoid the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, where proxies of Iran could be active. Demand management protocols could stagger industrial shutdowns and consumption reduction targets and financial stabilization tools: such as currency swap expansions preventing balance-of-payment crises. While not without difficulty given the current state of US-China strategic competition, several strategic recommendations may stabilize energy security in the region. These may include but are not exclusive to, first establishing a temporary or semi-permanent Energy Security Board with real-time coordination capabilities; second, creating a regional strategic reserve sharing agreements with pre-negotiated release triggers; third, accelerating renewable energy investments reducing long-term Middle East dependence; fourth, developing alternative payment mechanisms circumventing potential SWIFT restrictions; fifth, strengthening naval cooperation securing Indian Ocean sea lanes. László Csicsmann ( is a senior research fellow at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs and a full professor at the Corvinus Institute for Advanced Studies (CIAS) of the Corvinus University of Budapest. Stephen R Nagy (nagy@ is a professor of politics and international studies at the International Christian University in Tokyo and concurrently a visiting fellow for the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs (HIIA) and a Distinguished Fellow at the Corvinus Institute for Advanced Studies (CIAS).
The National
a day ago
- Politics
- The National
UN nuclear watchdog to visit Iran in next two weeks
The UN nuclear watchdog will visit Iran within the next two weeks, Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Monday. It will be the first such visit since Tehran passed a parliamentary bill restricting co-operation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The IAEA has said it must be allowed to resume inspections after Israeli and US air strikes last month that aimed to destroy Iran's nuclear programme and deny it the capacity to build a nuclear weapon. Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons and says its programme is strictly peaceful. Iran has blamed the IAEA for providing Israel with the pretext to start a war after a report accusing Tehran of hiding enriched uranium. After the 12-day war ended, a bill passed in Iran's parliament restricting Tehran's co-operation with the watchdog. The bill, which has now become law, stipulates that any future inspection of Iran's nuclear sites by the IAEA needs approval by Tehran's Supreme National Security Council. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said a manual regarding future co-operation with the agency will be presented during the visit. The UN nuclear watchdog is particularly concerned about the whereabouts of Iran's stocks of some 400kg of highly enriched uranium. On Sunday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot told the CBS News show Face The Nation that Western governments were seeking a 'comprehensive agreement' with Iran, in part to avert the 'risk' that it could covertly pursue a nuclear weapon. 'Regarding matters related to our defence capabilities, there will absolutely be no discussion,' Mr Baghaei said in response during his weekly press briefing. Mr Barrot's comments came after a meeting on Friday between Iranian diplomats and counterparts from France, Germany and Britain – the first nuclear talks since the war with Israel. The European countries, also known as the E3, have in recent weeks threatened to trigger a " snapback mechanism" which would reinstate UN sanctions on Iran. Tehran has warned it might withdraw from the global nuclear non-proliferation treaty if sanctions were reimposed. 'One cannot expect a country to remain in the treaty while being deprived of its stated rights, particularly the peaceful use of nuclear energy,' Mr Baghaei said. Israel's attacks on Iran last month hit vital nuclear and military sites but also residential areas, and killed top commanders, nuclear scientists and hundreds of others. The US briefly joined the war, striking nuclear sites. The war derailed nuclear negotiations that were under way between Washington and Tehran since April 12. In an interview with Iran's state TV aired on Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the decision to engage diplomatically towards a ceasefire was 'what prevented the war from spiralling into a wider regional catastrophe'. Mr Araghchi said he had survived an assassination attempt during the war. A bomb had been placed outside his house but security forces 'took control of it', he said. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian previously said he was lightly injured during an Israeli attack.
Reuters
a day ago
- Politics
- Reuters
IAEA will visit Iran in next two weeks, Iranian foreign ministry says
DUBAI, July 28 (Reuters) - The U.N. nuclear watchdog will make a visit to Iran within the next two weeks, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday, a few days after the watchdog's director said Tehran was ready to restart technical conversations. Baghaei added that a manual regarding the future of Iran's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency will be presented, based on a recent parliamentary bill restricting such cooperation. The bill, which has now become law, stipulates that any future inspection of Iran's nuclear sites by the IAEA needs approval by Tehran's Supreme National Security Council. The IAEA has said it must be allowed to resume inspections after Israeli and U.S. airstrikes last month that aimed to destroy Iran's nuclear programme and deny it the capacity to build a nuclear weapon. Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons and says its programme is strictly peaceful. The UN nuclear watchdog is particularly concerned about the whereabouts of Iran's stocks of some 400 kg of highly enriched uranium. Baghaei reiterated Iran's position that it would resume indirect talks with the United States if its national interest required it, but said there currently were no plans to hold a sixth round of nuclear negotiations with Washington. Iran and the U.S. held five rounds of talks mediated by Oman, which were suspended as a result of last month's 12-day war between Iran and Israel. The talks were characterised by major points of contention, such as Washington's request that Tehran stop its domestic uranium enrichment. Baghaei said on Monday that as a member of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran should be allowed to enrich uranium.
Qatar Tribune
6 days ago
- Politics
- Qatar Tribune
Iran ready for war with Israel: Pezeshkian
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has said his country is prepared for any war Israel might wage against it, adding he was not optimistic about the ceasefire between the countries, while confirming Tehran is committed to continuing its nuclear programme for peaceful purposes. Pezeshkian made the comments in an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera aired on Wednesday, one of his first since the end of the 12-day conflict with Israel last month, in which the United States intervened on Israel's behalf, launching strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. The comments come as Western nations say they are seeking a solution to Iran's ongoing nuclear ambitions in the wake of the conflict, amid reports that strikes on its nuclear facilities were less damaging than claimed by Washington. 'We are fully prepared for any new Israeli military move, and our armed forces are ready to strike deep inside Israel again,' Pezeshkian told Al Jazeera. Iran was not relying on the ceasefire that ended the 12-day war to hold, he said. 'We are not very optimistic about it,' said Pezeshkian. 'That is why we have prepared ourselves for any possible scenario and any potential response. Israel has harmed us, and we have also harmed it. It has dealt us powerful blows, and we have struck it hard in its depths, but it is concealing its losses.' He added that Israel's strikes, which assassinated leading military figures and nuclear scientists, and damaged nuclear facilities, had sought to 'eliminate' Iran's hierarchy, 'but it has completely failed to do so'. More than 900 people were killed in Iran, large numbers of them civilians, and at least 28 people were killed in Israel before a ceasefire took hold on June 24. Pezeshkian said Iran would continue its uranium enrichment programme despite international opposition, saying the development of its nuclear abilities would be carried out 'within the framework of international laws'. '[US President Donald] Trump says that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon and we accept this because we reject nuclear weapons and this is our political, religious, humanitarian and strategic position,' he said. 'We believe in diplomacy, so any future negotiations must be according to a win-win logic, and we will not accept threats and dictates.' He said the claim from Trump 'that our nuclear programme is over is just an illusion'. 'Our nuclear capabilities are in the minds of our scientists and not in the facilities,' he said. Pezeshkian's comments echoed earlier remarks by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who said in an interview with US broadcaster Fox News aired Monday that Tehran would never abandon its uranium enrichment programme, but was open to a negotiated solution to its nuclear ambitions, in which it would guarantee that the programme was for peaceful purposes in response for the lifting of sanctions. Pezeshkian also addressed an attempt by Israel to assassinate him at a meeting of the Supreme National Security Council in Tehran on June 15, which was reported to have left him with minor injuries. Asked about the assassination attempt, he said it had been part of a plan by Israeli commanders to target Iran's political leadership in the wake of its assassination of senior military figures, in a bid 'to put the country into chaos in order to overthrow it completely'. But the plan had failed, he said. Araghchi said on Monday that Iran's Atomic Energy Organization is still evaluating how the attacks last month had affected Iran's enriched material, saying Tehran would soon inform the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of its findings. He said Iran had not stopped cooperation with the IAEA, adding that any request for the IAEA to send inspectors back to Iran would be 'carefully considered'. IAEA inspectors left Iran earlier this month after Pezeshkian signed a law suspending cooperation with the agency. (Source: Al Jazeera)
L'Orient-Le Jour
6 days ago
- Politics
- L'Orient-Le Jour
Israel weighs resuming campaign against Iran, Tehran says it's ready to retaliate
BEIRUT — Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Tuesday evening that Israel could consider resuming its military campaign against Iran, according to Israeli media reports. He made the remarks during a security assessment meeting with senior officials from the army's intelligence services. Katz underscored the importance of maintaining Israel's air superiority, achieved during Operation "Rising Lion," and urged the development of a clear plan to prevent Iran from restoring its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, the Jerusalem Post reported. On regional security, Katz said two fronts remain active — Gaza and Yemen — and stressed that both must be addressed in line with what he described as Israel's "successful" offensive strategy against threats from Iran, Lebanon and Syria. He also highlighted the ongoing deployment of Israeli forces at strategic checkpoints and sensitive locations in Syria and Lebanon, calling the military occupation of those areas "essential for the protection of Israeli communities." The defense minister concluded by urging the army to prepare for potential security threats in the coming period. 'We are preparing for all scenarios' In response, Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian said that his country was 'fully prepared for any new Israeli military offensive,' in an interview with Al Jazeera. 'Our armed forces are ready to retaliate and strike deep inside Israel,' he said, adding that Tehran does not trust the current cease-fire and is preparing for 'all possible scenarios.' Pezeshkian accused Israel of trying — and failing — to destabilize and dismantle Iran, saying both sides have inflicted heavy blows, though Israel 'conceals its losses.' The war between Israel and Iran killed at least 1,060 people in Iran, according to authorities. On the Israeli side, the official death toll stands at 28. The Iranian president was slightly injured during an Israeli bombing that targeted a building in Tehran where the Supreme National Security Council was meeting. The strike came three days after the outbreak of a 12-Day War between the two countries, triggered by an Israeli airstrike on June 13 that targeted military and nuclear facilities as well as senior figures in the Iranian regime. A cease-fire, brokered under U.S. pressure, has held since June 24 after the U.S. military launched a series of unprecedented airstrikes on several Iranian nuclear sites.
