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Novaya Gazeta Europe
5 days ago
- Politics
- Novaya Gazeta Europe
The fog of war. Is there any basis to Russian claims that Ukrainian villages on the frontline are falling like dominoes? — Novaya Gazeta Europe
Late last week, Vladimir Putin announced that Russian forces had taken full control of the town of Chasiv Yar in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, a significant victory for Moscow in what has become an achingly slow war of attrition. 'I can assure you that this is absolutely true,' Putin said confidently, in a tacit acknowledgement that not all Kremlin claims of Russian advances were quite as real. Russian pro-war military correspondents have previously reported the entry of Russian units into the Donetsk region city of Pokrovsk, and the subsequent battles taking place on its streets. The Kremlin and the Defence Ministry announce the capture of Ukrainian settlements on an almost daily basis. Three and a half years into the war, Novaya Europe asked multiple military analysts to assess the situation on the frontline and to identify the areas where Ukrainian defences are currently facing the greatest risk. Operational encirclement 'In July, the Russians were able to capture about 600 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory,' Israeli military analyst David Sharp told Novaya Europe, adding that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) were currently most under pressure in the Donetsk region near Pokrovsk and neighbouring Myrnohrad, where Russian forces have edged ever closer to the two cities and sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been creeping into the outskirts and fighting in residential areas. 'Pokrovsk itself is at risk of operational encirclement and the Dobropillya-Pokrovsk highway, which is extremely important for defence logistics, is at risk of being cut off,' Sharp says, citing the lack of Ukrainian defensive installations in the area. 'The AFU is trying to control the line of contact using its scattered strongholds and drones, but these clearly aren't sufficient to hold off the advancing enemy forces.' 'Blustering reports of significant successful advances are more often than not simply Russian propaganda,' says Ukrainian military expert and reserve AFU colonel Roman Svitan. 'However, some areas have indeed seen an increase in [Russian] pressure.' Pokrovsk is fulfilling its role — draining the enemy's huge resources and depleting the advance as much as possible. Svitan agrees that the most perilous situation for the AFU is currently around Pokrovsk, but adds that the Russian military has been on the outskirts of the city for over a year, but still hasn't managed to occupy it. Small sabotage and reconnaissance groups creeping into the city don't pose a serious threat, Svitan says, though he adds that the drones the Russians use to monitor Ukrainian logistics do pose a significant problem. Ivan Stupak, a Ukrainian military analyst and former secret service officer, calls Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka the most imperiled cities for the AFU at present. The bottleneck through which Pokrovsk is resupplied is about 15 kilometres wide but is constantly decreasing. At Kostyantynivka, the supply corridor is 25 kilometres wide. If the Russians can narrow the supply corridor near Pokrovsk to 10 kilometres, defending the city will become extremely dangerous, because all access roads will be under total Russian control. 'I must say Pokrovsk has held out much longer than experts predicted,' Stupak says, noting that many analysts predicted the city would fall to the Russians last year. 'However, the situation is getting worse. … We can assume the Russians will capture it within the next two months. So far, though, Pokrovsk is fulfilling its role — draining the enemy's huge resources and depleting the advance as much as possible.' Destruction in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine, 30 July 2025. Photo: AFU / EPA The gateway to Kostyantynivka AFU defences are still resisting the Russian onslaught around Chasiv Yar, says Sharp, and though no independently verified information is yet available about whether the city has been completely captured or not, it's clear that Russian troops have not been able to achieve their offensive targets in full. Despite video footage being shared online that appears to show Russian flags flying from buildings in various parts of the city, Sharp says that the AFU is still holding on to some positions, and citing maps published by DeepState, that Chasiv Yar's Shevchenko district remains under Ukrainian control. Though he stresses that it's yet to happen, Svitan says he believes that if the Russians are able to take full control of Chasiv Yar, they will immediately move on Kostyantynivka, though he also notes that it may take years to capture due to its large size. Once the Russians capture Chasiv Yar, they will most likely move on the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk agglomeration. 'In the spring of 2024, with the Russian army approaching Chasiv Yar, Bilohorivka, a relatively small town on a hill with a population of about 12,000, was the main obstacle to advancing troops,' Sharp says, adding that it was known as 'the gateway to Kostyantynivka'. However, since then, the Russians have made significant progress in approaching Kostyantynivka from Toretsk and via the road to Pokrovsk, Sharp continues, meaning that Chasiv Yar is no longer of such strategic importance. Kostyantynivka is almost half-surrounded and the battle for the city itself will likely begin in the near future. 'Ukraine is still holding on to multiple pockets of resistance within the completely destroyed city of Chasiv Yar,' says Stupak. 'So there is still no real basis to claim that it's been fully captured by the Russian military. However, we need to understand that the battle for the city has left almost no stone standing.' Stupak also believes that once the Russians capture Chasiv Yar, they will most likely move on the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk agglomeration, which includes Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka, stressing that 'the Russians will only have full control of the Donetsk region and the entire Donbas if they capture all these cities'. AFU servicemen near Kupyansk, Kharkiv region, Ukraine, 5 June 2025. Photo: Anatoliy Stepanov / Sipa / Shutterstock / Rex Features / Vida Press Battles along the entire front line 'One important area is Kupyansk. There the Russians have approached the city from their ever-expanding bridgehead on the banks of the Oskil River in the Kharkiv region they captured earlier,' says Sharp. 'The Russian army is actually approaching the town in small groups. The AFU does not have enough people to ensure effective defence. In some areas, there are only a few Ukrainian soldiers per kilometre. In such cases, the enemy will be able to penetrate deep behind Ukrainian lines and launch a swift attack.' Another danger zone for the AFU, according to Sharp, is the area where the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions meet around the village of Novopavlivka, where the Russians are continuing to advance slowly but steadily. Though the Russians have not yet been able to take Novopavlivka itself, bloody battles are ongoing in the area, with the heavy use of drones and glide bombs reported, Stupak says after confirming that the border between the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions is currently in play. If the Russian army captures Stepnohirsk, its artillery will be able to hit the Ukrainian-held regional capital, Zaporizhzhia. Svitan says the AFU has been successfully displacing Russians from Ukrainian territory in the Sumy region, and that several Ukrainian villages have already been liberated. The 155th and 810th brigades of the Russian Marines and parts of the Airborne Forces fighting in the area have suffered significant losses. Although the Russians have transferred their main units to the Pokrovsk area, they do not have reserves to reinforce them. Fighting has also intensified in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, where Russians are attacking the town of Stepnohirsk and nearby areas, including the village of Kamyanske, according to Stupak. If the Russian army captures Stepnohirsk, its artillery will be able to hit the Ukrainian-held regional capital, Zaporizhzhia. Sharp also has information on Russian attacks on the Zaporizhzhia region, where Russian forces have been able to capture several villages, including Kamyanske. Even a slight advance here could eventually lead to their breaking through Ukrainian defences and serious territorial losses for the AFU, while any further stretching of the line resistance will greatly complicate matters for the Ukrainians and create logistics problems, Sharp notes.
Novaya Gazeta Europe
05-07-2025
- Politics
- Novaya Gazeta Europe
Patriot Games. Can Ukraine replace the crucial weaponry the Trump administration has stopped supplying it with? — Novaya Gazeta Europe
The Pentagon's decision to freeze the deliveries of certain types of weapons to Ukraine, including missiles for Patriot air defence systems, caught Kyiv off guard earlier this week. Multiple NBC News sources in the US Congress and the Pentagon said that Ukraine would no longer be receiving Howitzer munitions, Hellfire missiles, precision-guided missile systems, Stinger surface-to-air missiles, AIM air-to-air missiles or grenade launchers. Experts consider these weapons to be crucial for Ukraine's defence against Russian missiles. 'I don't want to sound too conspiratorial, but the list of weapons seems to contain the munitions that are hardest to replace elsewhere,' military researcher Kirill Mikhailov told Novaya Gazeta Europe. 'First and foremost, we're talking about GMLRS missiles, which can destroy targets with a high level of precision up to 60 kilometres away, and Patriot PAC-3 anti-aircraft missiles, which are the only ones in the Ukrainian arsenal capable of shooting down ballistic missiles,' he added. 'Suspending the supply of Patriot missiles is effectively an invitation to the Russian army to strike unprotected Ukrainian cities with ballistic missiles.' Even if these munitions can be partially replaced by European supplies, some shortfall is inevitable, Mikhailov believes. But when it comes to air defences, most Russian airstrikes use drones, which can be successfully shot down by European air defence systems, aviation and interceptor drones, which Ukraine is actively investing in, he notes. The Pentagon's decision appears to concern the final supplies approved during the Biden administration, military expert and reserve Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) colonel Roman Svitan told Novaya Europe, noting that the AFU was 'really counting on this batch … of mainly defensive weapons'. 'It will weaken Ukrainian defence and air defence capabilities,' Svitan asserted. 'Suspending the supply of Patriot missiles is effectively an invitation to the Russian army to strike unprotected Ukrainian cities with ballistic missiles — only the Patriot system can shoot down Russian Iskander and Kinzhal missiles and Korean KN-23s,' he stressed. F-16 fighter jets fly over a Patriot air defence system, Ukraine, 4 August 2024. Photo: Efrem Lukatsky / AP Photo / Scanpix / LETA 'European air defence systems can only shoot down cruise missiles,' Ivan Stupak, a military analyst and former Ukrainian secret service official, agreed. Svitan believes European countries still have stockpiles of Patriot missiles, which Ukraine now hopes they will deliver. EU countries can also provide the AFU with artillery shells. Besides the Patriot systems, other interruptions in supply are not as critical, Stupak believes. In recent years, Ukraine has increasingly replaced artillery shells and anti-tank grenade launchers with drones, he notes. Drones fly further than munition, and are much more accurate. Anticipating an interruption in US aid, Ukraine ramped up production of its own shells, while also buying up Soviet-era shells, which are still widely used by the AFU. 'The fact that supplies haven't been cancelled, only suspended, may mean this is a bargaining chip in a bigger game.' 'Stopping supplies will directly lead to the death of Ukrainian servicemen and civilians, of course, but not to the immediate collapse of the front or the destruction of cities in the Ukrainian hinterland,' Mikhailov said. 'I think we have just witnessed a deal. Donald Trump received a promise from Putin not to meddle in the conflict between the US and Israel and Iran if the US stopped supplying weapons to Ukraine,' said Svitan. 'Ukraine is being sacrificed for a solution to the problems in the Middle East.' Trump may also be trying to put pressure on Kyiv again, forcing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to surrender, Svitan suggested. 'The fact that supplies haven't been cancelled, only suspended, may mean this is a bargaining chip in a bigger game,' he continued. 'Trump still hopes that he can achieve peace by sacrificing large parts of Ukraine.'
Novaya Gazeta Europe
29-06-2025
- Politics
- Novaya Gazeta Europe
Offensive? What offensive? Analysts react to the Ukrainian military chief's claim that a Russian offensive in the Sumy region has been halted — Novaya Gazeta Europe
Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has compared the Russian summer offensive in Ukraine's northern Sumy region to its unsuccessful attempt to recapture territory in the Kharkiv region last year. According to Syrskyi, AFU units have now retaken the Ukrainian territory briefly held by Russian forces in the border areas of the Sumy region, cutting off approximately '50,000 Russian servicemen, including elite air force and marine brigades'. Syrskyi also said that an AFU offensive around the town of Glushkovo in Russia's neighbouring Kursk region had 'forced the enemy to send troops to defend their territory, significantly reducing their offensive capabilities' in the Sumy region. Syrskyi added that a special force had been assembled to defend the Sumy region and that work was underway to strengthen Ukrainian defences and create fortification barriers. 'In the Sumy region, the enemy advance hasn't been completely stopped,' an AFU serviceman who asked only to be identified as Serhiy told Novaya Gazeta Europe. 'The situation may no longer be critical … but it is still complex and far from stable. This is especially true for the villages of Yunakivka, Yablunivka, Varachyne and several others. These areas have seen tactical advances by the enemy, which has been repelled from Andriivka, but their attempts to regain control of these villages and positions they have lost are ongoing.' 'The situation in the Sumy region is definitely better than a month ago,' Russian military researcher Kirill Mikhailov told Novaya Europe. 'The Russians haven't been able to advance anywhere in recent days. It's difficult to analyse the effect of Ukrainian attacks on Tyotkino in the Kursk region, but there are several Russian units there, which are periodically being rotated due to losses.' 'There has been no Russian offensive in the Sumy region,' says Roman Svitan, a military expert and AFU reserve colonel. 'In fact, recent Russian activity was just a continuation of fighting following the AFU being squeezed out of the Kursk region. … The enemy was able to move a little deeper into the Sumy region and capture about 10 border villages. To paraphrase Syrskyi, the Russians have run out of steam and the AFU retreat is over.' Barbed wire on the front line in the Sumy region, June 2025. Photo: AFU General Staff Svitan added that the deployment of 50,000 Russian troops to the area by Russia's high command was insufficient for a full-scale offensive. 'Over 300,000 people live in Sumy. Storming a city like that would take years to organise.' 'The state of fortifications in the Sumy border region has been sharply criticised by Ukrainian analysts and military bloggers,' Mikhailov adds. 'During the Kursk operation, the AFU did nothing to strengthen the border while it was under their control,' he said, before suggesting that Syrskyi's sudden activity in the area had been fuelled by the public criticism he subsequently received. Svitan, however, said he believed that the damage inflicted by the AFU on border settlements in Russia's Kursk region would help to ensure that Ukrainian positions in the Sumy region could be defended. According to him, AFU defensive lines in the Sumy region are located in areas of forest and woodland, as building fortifications anywhere else would expose them to attacks from glide bombs or drones. So far, the Russians have been unable to reach the first line of Ukrainian defence structures. 'All this activity in the Sumy region is aimed at distracting the AFU from … Pokrovsk and at some point Zaporizhzhia,' says Svitan. 'The Russians are now preparing to expand their land corridor to Crimea. All other territorial advances are secondary concerns.'
