Latest news with #TDEconomics
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Lacklustre conditions weigh on U.S. resale, new home markets
Mid-year housing market conditions in the United States reflect economic uncertainty resulting from the U.S. administration volatile trade policies, two new reports have suggested. TD Economics released two reports on new homes and resale market data, ending June 30, showing a slowdown in home sales and a slight uptick in new homes activity — though below historical averages. It noted that housing starts were up nearly five per cent month over month in June, mostly driven by multi-family activity, up nearly 30 per cent month over month. Single-family home starts, however, fell about five per cent. At the same time, resales declined nearly three per cent month over month, led by single-family home sales, falling three per cent. Inventory, while down almost one per cent from May, were up nearly 16 per cent year over year. Home prices saw a modest gain in June, up two per cent year over year. TD noted that activity in resales was 'tepid amid low affordability due to high mortgage rates and home prices.' Falling demand and higher inventory could help ease price pressures, but a turnaround to more favourable conditions leading to higher demand appears unlikely until mortgage rates come down, it added. Rates are currently averaging about seven per cent in the U.S. holding back home buying and refinancing. Conditions are also weighing on new home construction with starts at five-year lows. High mortgage rates are also affecting new builds for ownership, it added. As well, economic uncertainty due to trade, tariffs and inflation in the U.S. are affecting demand, confidence and rates. In turn, many prospective buyers are sitting on the sidelines. Consequently, supply of new homes for sale reached in June their highest levels since 2007.
Hamilton Spectator
25-07-2025
- Business
- Hamilton Spectator
Waiting for interest rates to drop? Here's what Canadians need to know before renewing their mortgage
Canadians with pending mortgage renewals will be watching the Bank of Canada's next interest rate announcement on July 30 to see if they'll get some payment relief. The overnight lending rate, which impacts credit products such as variable rate mortgages, adjustable rates, and home equity lines of credit, has remained at 2.75 per cent since March. With Canada's inflation rate sitting at 1.9 per cent in June, well within the Bank of Canada's goal of 1 to 3 per cent, a rate drop aimed to tame inflation appears unlikely. But a study by TD Economics suggests ongoing softness in Canada's labour market could open the door to potential rate cuts later this year. In a new report, the C.D. Howe Institute's Monetary Policy Council urged the Bank of Canada to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75 per cent on July 30, but lower the rate to 2.5 per cent in September and leave it there until next July. National home sales fell 4.8 per cent in March compared to February, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association . The MLS Home Price Index, which tracks neighbourhoods' home price levels and trends, also fell 1 per cent during the same period. A study by TD Economics shows 60 per cent of outstanding mortgages are slated for renewal between now and 2026 and 40 per cent are expected to be renewed at higher rates. In a recent commentary , TD Economist Rishi Sondhi said consumers have shied away from major purchases like homes as they worry about possible job losses or economic uncertainty from U.S. tariffs. 'U.S.-Canada trade tensions and job markets are significant factors that can affect housing demand and prices,' Sondhi said. 'So, even if housing sales levels improve, they are likely to remain subdued compared to peak pandemic levels due to this market uncertainty, particularly in B.C. and Ontario.' While the housing market has slowed in many parts of the country, homeowners shouldn't blindly renew their mortgage with their current lender without shopping around for a better deal, according to , a website that helps consumers compare rates for various financial products. 'The slow housing market of late means that lenders are currently competing for mortgage business and there is incentive to retain customers,' said Victor Tran, mortgage and real estate expert in a release. Tran noted Canadians could find better rates or more attractive policy terms available compared to those publicly posted or initially offered at renewal. 'Homeowners should also review their policies to ensure that they are suitable for the life plans they may have during the duration of the mortgage, which can help save money,' Tran added. For example, renewing with a mortgage term of five years with penalty clauses for breaking the mortgage early may be costly for a homeowner planning to move in less than five years. If your mortgage is up for renewal, offers the following tips. Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .
Calgary Herald
14-07-2025
- Business
- Calgary Herald
Border bitterness is devastating cross-border tourism. But one Canadian city is bucking the trend
Article content Those who travel by car between the U.S. and Canada at crossings like the Peace Bridge have grown accustomed to long wait times over the years, but drivers headed in either direction today rarely face delays. Article content Those empty lanes signal a stark change: Cross-border travel has fallen to historic lows, surpassing even the slowdowns seen after 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis. Article content Article content 'We are currently seeing more extreme drops in travel by car than we did during those (earlier) crises,' says Laura Presley, an analyst at Statistics Canada, noting an 'abrupt shift' at the start of this year. Article content Article content Article content U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war, his '51st state' rhetoric, and stricter immigration rules have sparked a backlash that has Canadians choosing to spend more at home, and less on American goods and travel. Article content Americans, in turn, are less sure about being welcome up north, and everyone is dealing with economic uncertainty. Article content It hasn't been easy. Article content After 9/11, car travel to the U.S. by Canadian residents dropped by just over 30 per cent, and the 2008 financial crisis saw car travel drop by just under 23 per cent. Data released last week show this is worse than both: Canadian return trips from the U.S. by car in June dropped 33.1 per cent compared to June 2024, and that was the sixth consecutive month of decline. Canadian air travel to the U.S. also fell by 22.1 per cent in June. Article content Article content Canadians spent US$20.5 billion in the U.S. last year, and the U.S. Travel Association has warned that a 10 per cent drop in Canadian tourism this year could cost the American economy US$2.1 billion in spending and 140,000 jobs. Article content Article content Article content The trend has hurt Canada, too, but not as badly. American car trips to Canada in June fell 10.4 per cent year-over-year, for a fifth month of decline. American air travel to Canada is down too, but only by 0.7 per cent in June. Article content Anusha Arif, an economist at TD Economics, said her research points to a decline of up to 10 per cent in U.S. spending in Canada, which could add up to a $1-billion loss.
Edmonton Journal
14-07-2025
- Business
- Edmonton Journal
Border bitterness is devastating cross-border tourism. But one Canadian city is bucking the trend
Article content Those who travel by car between the U.S. and Canada at crossings like the Peace Bridge have grown accustomed to long wait times over the years, but drivers headed in either direction today rarely face delays. Article content Those empty lanes signal a stark change: Cross-border travel has fallen to historic lows, surpassing even the slowdowns seen after 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis. Article content Article content 'We are currently seeing more extreme drops in travel by car than we did during those (earlier) crises,' says Laura Presley, an analyst at Statistics Canada, noting an 'abrupt shift' at the start of this year. Article content Article content Article content U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war, his '51st state' rhetoric, and stricter immigration rules have sparked a backlash that has Canadians choosing to spend more at home, and less on American goods and travel. Article content Americans, in turn, are less sure about being welcome up north, and everyone is dealing with economic uncertainty. Article content Cities on both sides of the border are rushing out event-driven and targeted marketing campaigns to reverse the slide and bring people back. Article content It hasn't been easy. Article content After 9/11, car travel to the U.S. by Canadian residents dropped by just over 30 per cent, and the 2008 financial crisis saw car travel drop by just under 23 per cent. Data released last week show this is worse than both: Canadian return trips from the U.S. by car in June dropped 33.1 per cent compared to June 2024, and that was the sixth consecutive month of decline. Canadian air travel to the U.S. also fell by 22.1 per cent in June. Article content Article content Canadians spent US$20.5 billion in the U.S. last year, and the U.S. Travel Association has warned that a 10 per cent drop in Canadian tourism this year could cost the American economy US$2.1 billion in spending and 140,000 jobs. Article content Article content Article content The trend has hurt Canada, too, but not as badly. American car trips to Canada in June fell 10.4 per cent year-over-year, for a fifth month of decline. American air travel to Canada is down too, but only by 0.7 per cent in June. Article content Anusha Arif, an economist at TD Economics, said her research points to a decline of up to 10 per cent in U.S. spending in Canada, which could add up to a $1-billion loss.
Yahoo
30-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
How the Stock Market Under Biden Compares to Trump's 2025 Stock Market
Markets generally rise over the long term, but does the political affiliation of presidents matter to your stock portfolio? Be Aware: Check Out: To answer this question, GOBankingRates spoke with two financial experts on how investors should navigate markets when the White House changes hands. While past performance is not indicative of future results, the stock market has generally performed better under Democratic presidents. Not because they're more market-savvy, but rather due to timing — specifically, where the economy stands in the business cycle. According to TD Economics, Democratic presidents have had the benefit of getting elected during the early stages of the economic cycle more often. By contrast, Republican presidents, historically, assumed office near the end of the cycle. To be clear, this is not to suggest markets always perform better under Democrats or poorly under Republicans. In fact, the S&P 500 delivered remarkable returns during President Dwight Eisenhower's presidency and President Donald Trump's first term, both Republicans. Read Next: Under the Biden administration, the S&P 500 appreciated by 55%, based on a report from Morningstar. Not bad, considering he took the helm during a once-in-a-lifetime global pandemic that catalyzed a total upheaval across virtually every supply chain. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite delivered a gain of 46%. In 2021, which marked nearly one year of Biden's term, the S&P rose nearly 27%, while the Nasdaq gained about 21%, per CNBC. Markets have been a roller coaster since Trump took office. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high in mid-February, but his controversial tariffs and, more recently, tensions in the Middle East derailed whatever momentum there was. From Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025, through June 26, 2025, the S&P 500 has grown just 2.41%, while the Nasdaq has grown by 2.74%. Linda Jensen, a chartered financial consultant from Heart Financial Group, believes there is no reason to panic — as long as you stick to a long-term approach. 'First, I remind clients that markets dislike uncertainty — but trying to time the market based on politics often leads to missed opportunities,' she said. Instead, Jensen reorients her clients to think about why they're investing in the first place and what their goals are: 'I always bring the conversation back to goals, time horizon and risk tolerance,' she explained. Matt Hylland, a financial planner at Arnold & Mote Wealth Management, shared a similar sentiment: 'Stock markets have rewarded long-term investors, regardless of which party is in the White House.' Hylland advises his clients to focus on what they can control, like having a diversified portfolio and a tax-efficient savings strategy. Jensen also weighed in on where markets could be headed, based on a wide range of factors. Best-case scenario, some of Trump's policies, including the extension of tax cuts, expanded asset depreciation and the introduction of a $15 million estate exemption, might spark new optimism among investors and the business community, which may drive markets forward. Conversely, Jensen warned that 'global tensions, interest rate movements and inflation data will still weigh heavily on performance.' But the bottom line? While elections matter, both experts contend that a long-term investment plan is the best way to stay on track, irrespective of who occupies the White House. Editor's note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on More From GOBankingRates How Much Money Is Needed To Be Considered Middle Class in Your State? This article originally appeared on How the Stock Market Under Biden Compares to Trump's 2025 Stock Market Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
