Latest news with #TSE
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Estimating The Fair Value Of Endeavour Mining plc (TSE:EDV)
Endeavour Mining's estimated fair value is CA$40.34 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With CA$42.07 share price, Endeavour Mining appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value Our fair value estimate is 15% lower than Endeavour Mining's analyst price target of US$47.51 Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Endeavour Mining plc (TSE:EDV) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example! We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you. Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$1.06b US$1.13b US$775.4m US$473.1m US$395.1m US$352.4m US$328.4m US$315.2m US$308.7m US$306.5m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x10 Analyst x11 Analyst x7 Analyst x1 Est @ -16.49% Est @ -10.80% Est @ -6.81% Est @ -4.02% Est @ -2.07% Est @ -0.70% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.6% US$985 US$980 US$623 US$353 US$274 US$227 US$197 US$176 US$160 US$148 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$4.1b After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.6%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$307m× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (7.6%– 2.5%) = US$6.2b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$6.2b÷ ( 1 + 7.6%)10= US$3.0b The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$7.1b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CA$42.1, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind. The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Endeavour Mining as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.992. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. View our latest analysis for Endeavour Mining Strength Debt is not viewed as a risk. Weakness Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Metals and Mining market. Opportunity Expected to breakeven next year. Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows. Good value based on P/S ratio compared to estimated Fair P/S ratio. Threat Paying a dividend but company is unprofitable. Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Endeavour Mining, we've compiled three essential items you should consider: Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Endeavour Mining . Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for EDV's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Canadian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Here's What To Make Of Restaurant Brands International Limited Partnership's (TSE:QSP.UN) Decelerating Rates Of Return
Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. In light of that, when we looked at Restaurant Brands International Limited Partnership (TSE: and its ROCE trend, we weren't exactly thrilled. Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on Restaurant Brands International Limited Partnership is: Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities) 0.10 = US$2.3b ÷ (US$25b - US$2.6b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2025). Therefore, Restaurant Brands International Limited Partnership has an ROCE of 10%. That's a relatively normal return on capital, and it's around the 9.3% generated by the Hospitality industry. See our latest analysis for Restaurant Brands International Limited Partnership While the past is not representative of the future, it can be helpful to know how a company has performed historically, which is why we have this chart above. If you want to delve into the historical earnings , check out these free graphs detailing revenue and cash flow performance of Restaurant Brands International Limited Partnership. Over the past five years, Restaurant Brands International Limited Partnership's ROCE and capital employed have both remained mostly flat. It's not uncommon to see this when looking at a mature and stable business that isn't re-investing its earnings because it has likely passed that phase of the business cycle. With that in mind, unless investment picks up again in the future, we wouldn't expect Restaurant Brands International Limited Partnership to be a multi-bagger going forward. In summary, Restaurant Brands International Limited Partnership isn't compounding its earnings but is generating stable returns on the same amount of capital employed. Since the stock has gained an impressive 48% over the last five years, investors must think there's better things to come. But if the trajectory of these underlying trends continue, we think the likelihood of it being a multi-bagger from here isn't high. Since virtually every company faces some risks, it's worth knowing what they are, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Restaurant Brands International Limited Partnership (of which 2 are significant!) that you should know about. While Restaurant Brands International Limited Partnership may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
20 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
An Intrinsic Calculation For Emera Incorporated (TSE:EMA) Suggests It's 27% Undervalued
Emera's estimated fair value is CA$85.81 based on Dividend Discount Model Emera is estimated to be 27% undervalued based on current share price of CA$62.58 Analyst price target for EMA is CA$62.00 which is 28% below our fair value estimate Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Emera Incorporated (TSE:EMA) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. We have to calculate the value of Emera slightly differently to other stocks because it is a electric utilities company. In this approach dividends per share (DPS) are used, as free cash flow is difficult to estimate and often not reported by analysts. Unless a company pays out the majority of its FCF as a dividend, this method will typically underestimate the value of the stock. The 'Gordon Growth Model' is used, which simply assumes that dividend payments will continue to increase at a sustainable growth rate forever. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a company's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In this case we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.5%). The expected dividend per share is then discounted to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.0%. Relative to the current share price of CA$62.6, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 27% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind. Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate) = CA$3.0 / (6.0% – 2.5%) = CA$85.8 We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Emera as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. View our latest analysis for Emera Strength Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry. Weakness Interest payments on debt are not well covered. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Electric Utilities market. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years. Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%. Threat Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Dividends are not covered by earnings. Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Canadian market. Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Emera, there are three additional factors you should further research: Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Emera . Future Earnings: How does EMA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Canadian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
An Intrinsic Calculation For Emera Incorporated (TSE:EMA) Suggests It's 27% Undervalued
Emera's estimated fair value is CA$85.81 based on Dividend Discount Model Emera is estimated to be 27% undervalued based on current share price of CA$62.58 Analyst price target for EMA is CA$62.00 which is 28% below our fair value estimate Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Emera Incorporated (TSE:EMA) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. We have to calculate the value of Emera slightly differently to other stocks because it is a electric utilities company. In this approach dividends per share (DPS) are used, as free cash flow is difficult to estimate and often not reported by analysts. Unless a company pays out the majority of its FCF as a dividend, this method will typically underestimate the value of the stock. The 'Gordon Growth Model' is used, which simply assumes that dividend payments will continue to increase at a sustainable growth rate forever. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a company's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In this case we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.5%). The expected dividend per share is then discounted to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.0%. Relative to the current share price of CA$62.6, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 27% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind. Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate) = CA$3.0 / (6.0% – 2.5%) = CA$85.8 We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Emera as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. View our latest analysis for Emera Strength Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry. Weakness Interest payments on debt are not well covered. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Electric Utilities market. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years. Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%. Threat Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Dividends are not covered by earnings. Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Canadian market. Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Emera, there are three additional factors you should further research: Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Emera . Future Earnings: How does EMA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Canadian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
With 75% ownership, Celestica Inc. (TSE:CLS) boasts of strong institutional backing
Institutions' substantial holdings in Celestica implies that they have significant influence over the company's share price The top 25 shareholders own 44% of the company Using data from analyst forecasts alongside ownership research, one can better assess the future performance of a company This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. Every investor in Celestica Inc. (TSE:CLS) should be aware of the most powerful shareholder groups. We can see that institutions own the lion's share in the company with 75% ownership. That is, the group stands to benefit the most if the stock rises (or lose the most if there is a downturn). Because institutional owners have a huge pool of resources and liquidity, their investing decisions tend to carry a great deal of weight, especially with individual investors. As a result, a sizeable amount of institutional money invested in a firm is generally viewed as a positive attribute. Let's take a closer look to see what the different types of shareholders can tell us about Celestica. View our latest analysis for Celestica Institutions typically measure themselves against a benchmark when reporting to their own investors, so they often become more enthusiastic about a stock once it's included in a major index. We would expect most companies to have some institutions on the register, especially if they are growing. Celestica already has institutions on the share registry. Indeed, they own a respectable stake in the company. This can indicate that the company has a certain degree of credibility in the investment community. However, it is best to be wary of relying on the supposed validation that comes with institutional investors. They too, get it wrong sometimes. It is not uncommon to see a big share price drop if two large institutional investors try to sell out of a stock at the same time. So it is worth checking the past earnings trajectory of Celestica, (below). Of course, keep in mind that there are other factors to consider, too. Institutional investors own over 50% of the company, so together than can probably strongly influence board decisions. Celestica is not owned by hedge funds. The company's largest shareholder is FMR LLC, with ownership of 7.4%. With 6.0% and 3.9% of the shares outstanding respectively, Whale Rock Capital Management LLC and The Vanguard Group, Inc. are the second and third largest shareholders. Our studies suggest that the top 25 shareholders collectively control less than half of the company's shares, meaning that the company's shares are widely disseminated and there is no dominant shareholder. While it makes sense to study institutional ownership data for a company, it also makes sense to study analyst sentiments to know which way the wind is blowing. Quite a few analysts cover the stock, so you could look into forecast growth quite easily. While the precise definition of an insider can be subjective, almost everyone considers board members to be insiders. Company management run the business, but the CEO will answer to the board, even if he or she is a member of it. Most consider insider ownership a positive because it can indicate the board is well aligned with other shareholders. However, on some occasions too much power is concentrated within this group. Our most recent data indicates that insiders own less than 1% of Celestica Inc.. Being so large, we would not expect insiders to own a large proportion of the stock. Collectively, they own CA$98m of stock. Arguably recent buying and selling is just as important to consider. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling. The general public-- including retail investors -- own 25% stake in the company, and hence can't easily be ignored. While this size of ownership may not be enough to sway a policy decision in their favour, they can still make a collective impact on company policies. It's always worth thinking about the different groups who own shares in a company. But to understand Celestica better, we need to consider many other factors. Many find it useful to take an in depth look at how a company has performed in the past. You can access this detailed graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow. If you would prefer discover what analysts are predicting in terms of future growth, do not miss this free report on analyst forecasts. NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the last twelve months, which refer to the 12-month period ending on the last date of the month the financial statement is dated. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
